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Old 04-28-2008   #1
Hooston Texan
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Default Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

I thought it would be interesting to create a thread where everyone who had a beef with some aspect of the Texans' draft declare whom they thought the Texans should have taken instead of the pick they made. Then, hopefully, a year or two from now, we can unearth this thread and see who was actually smarter than Rick Smith on draft day.

So consider this a contest: who had the best draft? Was it the Texans or someone posting here? We all love to second-guess the Texans, so let's set our own selves up for some second-guessing, too. If your "shoulda taken Y" take pans out, this thread will prove to everyone that you were, indeed, in favor of taking that player all along (before you had the benefit of hindsight). So, if it works as planned, this thread is basically a time capsule for the "I told you so"s of the world.

A couple of groundrules:

1. If you want to second-guess a pick, you must say whom they should have drafted instead. That "instead" player must have been available at the time (yes, I know if we undid an earlier pick, that would shake up the draft board a bit, but that variable is impossible to control).

2. The trades that affected this year's draft (Schaub, Myers, the trade-down) are included.

3. This thread is not intended to start debates on particular picks--I'd just like to get everyone on record (before any of these picks see the field) with who they thought we should have picked. This way, we can see who the true draft/personnel experts are. But feel free to give your reasons for the second-guess.

4. No fair saying "they should have made a trade". We have no idea what trade offers were available to the team, so we can only assess the trades that we actually did make.

So, without further ado, here's the transactions/picks at issue:

MOVE 1: Trading two-second rounders for Schaub. (If you take issue with this trade, declare whom the Texans should have taken at #48. Yes, this one allows for a little hindsight, but I'm a late-arriver to this board.)

MOVE 2: Trading the #18 pick for the #26, #89 and #173. If you take issue with this trade, declare whom the Texans' should have taken at 18. Voiding this deal means you also void picks 89 and 173.

MOVE 3: Trading the #183 pick to Denver for Chris Myers. If you take issue with this trade, declare whom the Texans should have picked at #183

PICK 1: Selecting Duane Brown at #26.

PICK 2: Selecting Antwaun Molden at #79.

PICK 3: Selecting Steve Slaton at #89. Eliminate this pick if you believe the Texans should not have traded the #18 pick.

PICK 4: Selecting Xavier Adibi at #118.

PICK 5: Selecting Frank Okam at #151.

PICK 6: Selecting Dominique Barber at #173.

PICK 7: Selecting Alex Brink at #223.

Enjoy.
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Old 04-28-2008   #2
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

Pick 6: I would have been more pleased if they had taken Darrell Robertson or Brian Johnston as a rush DE prospect opposite of Mario.

Pick 7: Peyton Hillis, FB. Someone convinced me during the draft day thread that Hillis could be an upgrade to our FB crew.
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Old 04-28-2008   #3
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

I actually was quite satisfied with the draft except for pick #7. I feel like a QB that has zero chance of making the roster was a waste of a pick. I know it was a 7th rounder, but try one of the DE's left. Wasnt Darrell Robertsen from Georgia Tech still there?

Thats my only gripe. Sure, I was interested like everyone else at a shot at Mendenhall, but knowing our staff I was fairly confident we wouldnt take a RB in the first round. I like the trading down because with the extra pick we got Steve Slaton whom I believe is seriously underrated.

Thats all I got.
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Old 04-28-2008   #4
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

Here's mine.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hooston Texan View Post
MOVE 1: Trading two-second rounders for Schaub. (If you take issue with this trade, declare whom the Texans should have taken at #48. Yes, this one allows for a little hindsight, but I'm a late-arriver to this board.)

MOVE 2: Trading the #18 pick for the #26, #89 and #173. If you take issue with this trade, declare whom the Texans' should have taken at 18. Voiding this deal means you also void picks 89 and 173.

MOVE 3: Trading the #183 pick to Denver for Chris Myers. If you take issue with this trade, declare whom the Texans should have picked at #183

PICK 1: Selecting Duane Brown at #26.

PICK 2: Selecting Antwaun Molden at #79.

PICK 3: Selecting Steve Slaton at #89. Eliminate this pick if you believe the Texans should not have traded the #18 pick.

PICK 4: Selecting Xavier Adibi at #118.

PICK 5: Selecting Frank Okam at #151.

PICK 6: Selecting Dominique Barber at #173.

PICK 7: Selecting Alex Brink at #223.
MOVE 1: No disagreement with the Schaub trade. This deal, along with the hiring of Kubiak/Smith and the 2006 draft are going to propel us into the playoffs by 2010.

MOVE 2: No disagreement here even with Otah, Mendenhall and Jenkins on the board.

MOVE 3: No-brainer. Even if Myers bombs, a 6 is a cheap price for an NFL starter.

PICK 1: DISAGREE. We should have taken Antoine Cason. I think Smith & Co. panicked after the run on OTs and thought they would not get another shot. As it turned out, there were no OTs taken betwen #26 and #79. Now, maybe Brown gets picked before 79 if we don't take him, but there were some other OTs on the board.

PICK 2: Had we taken Cason at #26, I'd have then taken Anthony Collins here (assuming Brown would have been picked by then). So my full second guess is that Cason/Collins > Brown/Molden.
With Brown as the pick, I'm OK with taking Molden.

PICK 3: I am not sold on Slaton, so I disagree. Though he's not without his gifts, his numbers are the product of the spread. I would have taken DE Cliff Avril.

PICK 4: Adibi is great value at this pick. No problem here--in fact, I was hoping that we'd take him in the third round, so Rick was definitely smarter than me here.

PICK 5: No problem taking a DT. From what I heard, I thought Athyba Rubin was the superior DT option, but I don't know enough about either Rubin or Okam to say it was the wrong pick. Plus, ties should go to the local players.

PICK 6: This is where I'd have taken a RB (instead of an RB's brother). So I would have taken Chauncey Washington or Mike Hart here--probably Washington.

PICK 7: I think we're good at QB. I'd have bolstered the OL with Eric Young at Tennessee. But if we had not taken an RB by this point, I would have gone with Peyton Hillis.

So my second-guessing draft is as follows:

1: Antoine Cason
3: Anthony Collins
3: Cliff Avril
4: Adibi
5: Okam (but tracking Rubin)
6: Chauncey Washington
7: Eric Young
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Old 04-28-2008   #5
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

I just felt like they should have found a way to wrangle a second round pick by trading back 8 spots, even if it meant a swap of later round picks as well (like the Redskins did). Aside from that, I have no heartburn, and I am very excited about this draft.
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Old 04-28-2008   #6
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

Quote:
Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
I just felt like they should have found a way to wrangle a second round pick by trading back 8 spots, even if it meant a swap of later round picks as well (like the Redskins did). Aside from that, I have no heartburn, and I am very excited about this draft.
Have you found out how many points our position was worth vs what we were given?

Every draft position is assigned points. Most GM's stick with that system as a guide.
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Old 04-28-2008   #7
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

Well didn't the pick after ours get traded for a 2nd and 5th this year and 1st next year (aka no 1st this year) or something to that extent?
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Old 04-28-2008   #8
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

Quote:
Originally Posted by PapaL View Post
Well didn't the pick after ours get traded for a 2nd and 5th this year and 1st next year (aka no 1st this year) or something to that extent?
I believe you are correct. Would folks been ok with us trading away this year's first to the Ravens in exchange for next year? It is a gamble.
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Old 04-28-2008   #9
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

I think that is the most enticing move out there. Depending on where in the second that pick was it could have worked out.
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Old 04-28-2008   #10
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/fea...aluechart.html

I found the chart.

The pick was worth 900 pts @ 18.
We received 867.5 pts in return for 26 (700), 89 (145) and 173 (22.5)

The Ravens had pick 55 in the second worth 350 pts and you couple that with 26, the Ravens probably didn't want to do.

The Texans I am sure felt Brown would have been gone by pick 55 anywho and didn't want to trade too much further back to acquire him.
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Last edited by Texaninlild; 04-28-2008 at 01:56 PM. Reason: Fixed my mistake on draft pick 3rd round
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Old 04-28-2008   #11
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

Quote:
Originally Posted by PapaL View Post
I think that is the most enticing move out there. Depending on where in the second that pick was it could have worked out.
The trade you're referring to is Carolina trading up for the #19 pick. They gave up, in addition to next year's #1, #43 and #109 (early fourth round). I would have taken that deal in a heartbeat if it was offered to us, but it would have been alot of nailbiting before that 43rd pick came up if Brown was indeed our guy.
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Old 04-28-2008   #12
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

What were the terms of the Redskins trade-back? They traded back 4 spots, I believe, and gave up their 4th rounder, and in return got a 2nd rounder. That's what I heard, anyway.
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Old 04-28-2008   #13
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

Sooo, our spot was worth 900 points in value and we got 917.5. Looks like we got what we were supposed to get.
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Old 04-28-2008   #14
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hooston Texan View Post
The trade you're referring to is Carolina trading up for the #19 pick. They gave up, in addition to next year's #1, #43 and #109 (early fourth round). I would have taken that deal in a heartbeat if it was offered to us, but it would have been alot of nailbiting before that 43rd pick came up if Brown was indeed our guy.
there would have been zero nail biting about Brown being there at 43. I don't think there is much of a chance the Falcons take Baker over him....taking that scenario meant that we would concede getting Brown and would have been stuck with no LT this year since there is little chance that Brown is there at 43. Kubiak stated that Brown was the last tackle on the board with the skillset Gibbs desired.
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Old 04-28-2008   #15
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

Quote:
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there would have been zero nail biting about Brown being there at 43. I don't think there is much of a chance the Falcons take Baker over him....taking that scenario meant that we would concede getting Brown and would have been stuck with no LT this year since there is little chance that Brown is there at 43. Kubiak stated that Brown was the last tackle on the board with the skillset Gibbs desired.
Also going by what Kubiak said about the additional trade offer, of dropping two more spots down, who is to say that someone would not trade up in between 26- 28 and draft him ahead of us, especially with as much movement that had already taken place.
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Old 04-28-2008   #16
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texaninlild View Post
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/fea...aluechart.html

I found the chart.

The pick was worth 900 pts @ 18.
We received 917.5 pts in return for 26 (700), 79 (195) and 173 (22.5)
We didn't get pick 79, we got pick 89, worth 145 points. So, we received 867.5 in exchange for 900.

I really don't like to hold to the chart too closely, but some "fairer" trades with Baltimore would have been for:
Pick 26 (700), 86 (160), and 173 (22.5) = 882.5 (I'm really surprised Smith didn't get this, although I don't know that it really made any difference in the end).
Pick 26 (700), 89 (145), and 4th round 106 (82) = 927 points, and we also throw in 5th round pick 151 (31 points), for a net loss of only 4 points.
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Old 04-28-2008   #17
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

The LTs went as I was concerned about. STewart and the CBs I was hopeful of were gone also & Jenkins did not seem to fit our D scheme as he voiced a desire not to tackle. Smith felt as did I that LT was priority although when Mendenhall was there I expected that to be the call. I had always rated J. Stewart 2nd best back.

Everything points to D. Brown being the best remaining LT for Gibbs although I liked Baker. I had Brown projected to RT but was very intrigued by his speed 5.0 and quickness of foot. When a trade was announced, I did not find out for a very long time what the deal consisted of but hoped for a 2nd thinking a third was more realistic. When I knew we also got a 6th, I was jubilant.

Molden 6'2" 195 is a huge CB with 37" vertical and 4.4 speed and could be a starter on right sooner than later though he might not beat Reeves out initially. In our four team world, we need good CBs and should be one.

Slaton was not on my list of favorites in first or 2nd round but in 3rd? Wow, to me this is perhaps the most intriguing pick we got. Almost 4,000 yards in 3 years. If Brown is as good as Smith thinks, Slaton could get 8-900 yds and could be much more than a "third down back".

With these three selections, team suddenly got faster. Time will tell, but I have to go with what I know and that is Smith and Kubes have done pretty well so far. I guess we get to see if Alex Gibbs still has it.
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Old 04-28-2008   #18
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

Quote:
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We didn't get pick 79, we got pick 89, worth 145 points. So, we received 867.5 in exchange for 900.

I really don't like to hold to the chart too closely, but some "fairer" trades with Baltimore would have been for:
Pick 26 (700), 86 (160), and 173 (22.5) = 882.5 (I'm really surprised Smith didn't get this, although I don't know that it really made any difference in the end).
Pick 26 (700), 89 (145), and 4th round 106 (82) = 927 points, and we also throw in 5th round pick 151 (31 points), for a net loss of only 4 points.
You are correct sir.
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Old 04-28-2008   #19
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

I dont like pick 6 and pick 7.
I dont really know who I would have taken in the 7th, but in the 6th I would have grabbed either Joe Mays, Andy Studebaker, or Brian Johnston.
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Old 04-28-2008   #20
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Default Re: Let's get on the Record with our Second-Guesses

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Originally Posted by badboy View Post
The LTs went as I was concerned about. STewart and the CBs I was hopeful of were gone also & Jenkins did not seem to fit our D scheme as he voiced a desire not to tackle. Smith felt as did I that LT was priority although when Mendenhall was there I expected that to be the call. I had always rated J. Stewart 2nd best back.

Everything points to D. Brown being the best remaining LT for Gibbs although I liked Baker. I had Brown projected to RT but was very intrigued by his speed 5.0 and quickness of foot. When a trade was announced, I did not find out for a very long time what the deal consisted of but hoped for a 2nd thinking a third was more realistic. When I knew we also got a 6th, I was jubilant.

Molden 6'2" 195 is a huge CB with 37" vertical and 4.4 speed and could be a starter on right sooner than later though he might not beat Reeves out initially. In our four team world, we need good CBs and should be one.

Slaton was not on my list of favorites in first or 2nd round but in 3rd? Wow, to me this is perhaps the most intriguing pick we got. Almost 4,000 yards in 3 years. If Brown is as good as Smith thinks, Slaton could get 8-900 yds and could be much more than a "third down back".

With these three selections, team suddenly got faster. Time will tell, but I have to go with what I know and that is Smith and Kubes have done pretty well so far. I guess we get to see if Alex Gibbs still has it.
Can you imagine Slaton hitting the same holes as Ron Dayne did last year? There is a slight difference in speed.
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