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Old 04-15-2008   #1
kastofsna
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Default New Draft Value Chart

according to PFT, there's a new draft value chart, and several teams are starting to use it this year, and it looks like it may be adopted as the unofficial official one soon enough:

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/...t-trade-chart/
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Old 04-15-2008   #2
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Default Re: New Draft Value Chart

Just at a quick glance, it appears to be significantly less regressive (working
backwards from the top pick) ?
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Old 04-15-2008   #3
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Default Re: New Draft Value Chart

Parcels bargining chip to trade down
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Old 04-16-2008   #4
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Default Re: New Draft Value Chart

Or J.J. to move up. I found it hard to read. Back end was all squeshed together.
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Old 04-16-2008   #5
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Default Re: New Draft Value Chart

This is PFT's second attempt at coming up with a new chart. The first one sucked. This one at least eliminates some of the mysterious random black holes of value but it still doesn't look like anything the teams would use.
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Old 04-16-2008   #6
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Default Re: New Draft Value Chart

It amazes me that NFL teams even pay any attention to these charts ? I suspect a lot don't, but somehow many others do.
The problem is of course that each and every Draft is unique. Some Drafts have great talent at the head of the Draft, but less than average depth.
Other Drafts may have a dearth of outstanding individuals, but very good to
good talent that runs deep. Then some Drafts have talent thats olutstanding and deep while another might be void of talent in most areas.
When teams are trading high picks with very specific top talent individuals in mind, this arbirary guage is ofter ignored. Best example that comes to mind is the trade in the 2004 Draft when Cleveland moved up just one slot to #6 overall and for boot thru in their second round pick, which the Draft Value chart says is worth 510 points but the difference between 6 & 7 is only 100 !
But they were that high on TE Winslow, and apparently they made the right decision, though at the time observers gasped at the Browns trade with Detroit. Andyway, so much for the "value" of the DVC.
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Old 04-17-2008   #7
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Default Re: New Draft Value Chart

I agree that every draft is unique and the value of a pick, especially in the early rounds, is determined by what players are left on the board and what teams want those players. Still, I can see a team wanting some means of gauging how much certain picks have historically been worth in trade, to use at least as a starting point.

When Jimmy Johnson put his first chart together, he had someone go through past years' trades and use that to mathematically estimate the historical value of each pick -- if pick A was traded for picks B and C, and pick C was traded for picks D, E, and F, then A must be worth... Of course a lot of extrapolating or estimating must have been involved. Since no one has mentioned anybody doing that this time, I guess this new chart is only somebody's best guess based on what seems right?
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