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Old 04-13-2008   #1
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Default Why I feel we should pass on a running back in the 1st round

Every year we, as fans, fall in love with certain players & swear on our lives that they'll turn the entire franchise around & guarantee us a shot at the Super Bowl. Well, maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration, but not by much. We all want to see that flashy, can't be stopped super star. However, those kind of players are usually the last piece to a Super Bowl run & we're not ready to take that step just yet.

Running backs have very short NFL careers due to the pounding they take every game & that's one of the reasons I believe we should pass on a RB in the first round this year. Many on this board are in love with Mendenhall & Stewart (that includes me as well), but we're not through laying the foundation. By that, I mean solidifying the trenches with the "Big Uglies". The best RB's in the history of the NFL couldn't do anything without a solid OL to run behind. Many of you have said that Gibbs can take a LT in the later rounds & turn him into a solid LT, but do you really want to entrust the health of your multi-million dollar QB & RB to a bargain basement LT?

Here's the link to a post I did back in November of 2005 that showed what round all the starting LT's in the NFL were taken in. I haven't updated it, but I suspect it'll turn out very similar today.

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/sho...248#post210248

We all know that we need to get either a starting LT, CB, or RB with the #18 pick, & so does every team in the NFL. That can be used to our advantage to trade down & pick up an extra pick or two. We can't fill all 3 positions with just a 1st & 3rd round pick. If one of the top 3 LT's (Otah is not in the equation for us) or McKelvin are still on the board at #18, we take him, no questions asked. However, if not, we should start working the phones to trade down.

My reason for omitting DRC is his health condition. I have to be very concerned about investing the kind of money he'll get, in a player that could be knocked out with one good shot. Not that he will, but it'd be a real concern.

If we can trade down, we should be able to pick up one of the 2nd tier LT's like Baker or Collins in the late 1st or early 2nd round. Either one of those should be a huge upgrade over Salaam & Black. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that Baker is going to turn out to be one of the better LT's taken in this year's draft.

Now, for my reason's why we shouldn't take a RB with our first round pick.

1) We haven't finished putting together the offensive line. This is the year we quit playing & get a legitimate LT.

2) RB's have the shortest NFL careers of all the regular starters (kickers don't count).

3) The Denver system is well known for taking average RB's & making them look like above average RB's.

4) A player like Kevin Smith or Matt Forte could be made to look like All-Pros in the Denver system & I believe that both can be drafted in the late 2nd to 3rd round.

5) We need to get an extra 2nd round pick to go after a CB. All the one's that can contribute right away should be gone by the 3rd round (Godfrey, Porter, Flowers, Molden).

Well, that's my opinion & like all of them, they usually stink.
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Old 04-13-2008   #2
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Default Re: Why I feel we should pass on a running back in the 1st round

Not to mention that RB usually pickup the pro game much faster than most positions.
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Old 04-13-2008   #3
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Default Re: Why I feel we should pass on a running back in the 1st round

Well put and I agree. Only problem is I don't think it will be that easy to trade down. We talk about trading down every year, and I think they do work the phones to see what's out there, but someone has to really be coveting a player for them to make it worth your while to make the move. I think DRC's combo of 1 kidney and small school background make him an unlikely selection for us at 18, but who knows. It seems like Smithiak is looking for a player with a good background against big time competition, so I think they'll take their chances with some of the other corners before DRC.
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Old 04-13-2008   #4
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Default Re: Why I feel we should pass on a running back in the 1st round

Actually, I think most of us are expecting to go OT or CB in this draft. If the right RB falls to us, we might take him. If the right DE or LB falls to us, we might take him.

But at #18, there's so much possible variance about who falls to us that I don't think any of us are "married" to one player or another. It's not like we're picking in the top 5 and have a pretty good idea of who we're going to have available.

A RB may have a relatively short career but if you get the right one, then you can supercharge your offense. You just have to get the right one. If the right one is available in the first round and won't be there later, then we should take him.
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Old 04-13-2008   #5
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Default Re: Why I feel we should pass on a running back in the 1st round

I was reading an artical a couple of days ago (on SI.com I think) and it seems that this year almost every team is allready looking to trade back because of how the talent is working out, but darn few are looking to trade up. My guess is that unless something strange happens (not even sure what that would be) we will be picking at 18. Now who that will be.............
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Old 04-14-2008   #6
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Default Re: Why I feel we should pass on a running back in the 1st round

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Originally Posted by Hottoddie View Post
Every year we, as fans, fall in love with certain players & swear on our lives that they'll turn the entire franchise around & guarantee us a shot at the Super Bowl. Well, maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration, but not by much. We all want to see that flashy, can't be stopped super star. However, those kind of players are usually the last piece to a Super Bowl run & we're not ready to take that step just yet.
agreed that we as fans fall in love with certain prospects (from a football angle, pull your head out of the gutter) but all you have to do is look at the Vikings & the impact Adrian Peterson had to know you don't need all the pieces intact before the franchise back is selected to succeed in a league of parity. you need that game breaker that sets you apart, then opens up other weapons, controls time of possession, keeps the defense fresh, yada, yada, yada

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Originally Posted by Hottoddie View Post
Running backs have very short NFL careers due to the pounding they take every game & that's one of the reasons I believe we should pass on a RB in the first round this year.
The better RB's tend to hang around longer, while I agree its a tough position to have longeivity, Jonathan Stewart is a Emmitt Smith clone & he had a productive, long career.

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Originally Posted by Hottoddie View Post
We all know that we need to get either a starting LT, CB, or RB with the #18 pick, & so does every team in the NFL. That can be used to our advantage to trade down & pick up an extra pick or two. We can't fill all 3 positions with just a 1st & 3rd round pick. If one of the top 3 LT's (Otah is not in the equation for us) or McKelvin are still on the board at #18, we take him, no questions asked. However, if not, we should start working the phones to trade down.
easier said than done.

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In fact, I'd be willing to bet that Baker is going to turn out to be one of the better LT's taken in this year's draft.
maybe so, in the right system like Gibbs, but he would be about the least sexy pick I could imagine (I told you to get your head out of the gutter).

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Originally Posted by Hottoddie View Post
1) We haven't finished putting together the offensive line. This is the year we quit playing & get a legitimate LT.
will we ever be finished? at least we now have a ligitimate Center that should really help. Gibbs coaching should help. adding another OT he feels fits the system whatever round should really help.

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2) RB's have the shortest NFL careers of all the regular starters (kickers don't count).
so then we have that in common with every other team, not to mention in the ZBS RB actually is more in space & should hold up longer w/less wear & tear.

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3) The Denver system is well known for taking average RB's & making them look like above average RB's.
but imagine what a great back who fits ZBS could do? just a guess but he might open up a few things.

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4) A player like Kevin Smith or Matt Forte could be made to look like All-Pros in the Denver system & I believe that both can be drafted in the late 2nd to 3rd round.
first your taking a chance both would still be there. second what if a corner or LT you have rated higher is sitting there, do you pass on them here for the same reasons?

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Originally Posted by Hottoddie View Post
5) We need to get an extra 2nd round pick to go after a CB. All the one's that can contribute right away should be gone by the 3rd round (Godfrey, Porter, Flowers, Molden).
could be LT or RB too, but as posted earlier easier said than done
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Old 04-14-2008   #7
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Default Re: Why I feel we should pass on a running back in the 1st round

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
Actually, I think most of us are expecting to go OT or CB in this draft. If the right RB falls to us, we might take him. If the right DE or LB falls to us, we might take him.

But at #18, there's so much possible variance about who falls to us that I don't think any of us are "married" to one player or another. It's not like we're picking in the top 5 and have a pretty good idea of who we're going to have available.

A RB may have a relatively short career but if you get the right one, then you can supercharge your offense. You just have to get the right one. If the right one is available in the first round and won't be there later, then we should take him.
Good noes. The right Rb can put touchdowns on the scoreboard and make Oline and QB better. Many have long careers. I too go with Williams over Stewart and a CB if all three there. It is just great that with another great draft 3 of four needs (DE is my 4th) should be taken care of and a 6th took care of our center for years.
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