Vikings want to trade for Rosenfels..............

[HoustonFrog]

Originally Posted by Hervoyel

One thing I tried to go into earlier in this thread was that if Schaub just explodes while walking out onto the field next year and literally there isn't a scrap of him big enough to merit burying then this team is not going to go into 2009 with Sage Rosenfels as the starter. They're going to go find someone they want as their starter be it through free agency, a trade, or more than likely the draft.

Kubiak had a chance to go with Sage as the man. He passed and he did so at a pretty high cost. Nobody will convince me that Kubiak doesn't know exactly what he has in Sage Rosenfels and that he's going to just say "Well, it's pretty bad about Matt exploding and all <thumps podium and looks at feet> but we got Sage and he's the starter now." when camp starts in 2009. It's not going to happen.

The point is that everyone says "we NEED Sage.... just in case" but in the worst version of the worst case scenario here Sage is going to be a placeholder until they can bring in their next "franchise QB". He's not going to be the replacement for Schaub. What's more is that this next hypothetical franchise QB isn't going to have a lengthy multi-year spin up time before he's ready. He won't be David Carr getting 5 years to learn the position. In the rest of the NFL, in the real world nobody does that and now neither do we. We're not going to "need" Sage until the rookie (most likely) is "ready". They're going to do a Jay Cutler on him and he'll be playing by the end of his first season. Sage will be back on the bench holding the clipboard and waiting for free agency to strike again. Then he'll sign with somebody else so he can start which he has said he wants to do and we'll get nothing for him. That's nothing as in zip, nada, zero.

And we'll be looking through that pile of scraps for our newest insurance policy that Kubiak can coach up.

The people who believe that Sage will somehow beat out Schaub for the job or take us to the playoffs if Schaub goes down have already shown me that they can't see the difference between Sage's starts and Matt's starts.

I firmly believe that David Carr's time here in Houston has done something to Texans fans ability to accurately and impartialy judge what they see.

Sorry, must spread rep and this is all in the same thread.

Not only is that true on Carr but the previous coaching staffs. We all have been guilty of thinking we know more. As you said, he sees Sage everyday and never decided.."he is the starter." At this point, considering the last two drafts and their FA moves, you have to trust that they know what they are doing.

[steelbtexan]

Originally Posted by HoustonFrog

Sorry, must spread rep and this is all in the same thread.

Not only is that true on Carr but the previous coaching staffs. We all have been guilty of thinking we know more. As you said, he sees Sage everyday and never decided.."he is the starter." At this point, considering the last two drafts and their FA moves, you have to trust that they know what they are doing.

Well said

[Joe Texan]

The playing feild is a free for all and Matt is the "Starter"

But if he sucks or is not completly healthy Sage will get the Ball I have no doubt. Back up QB's are very important and we have the very best. It seems that a lot of Qb's were backups at one point before becoming a starter, and some stayed in that roll and carried the team when needed. That might verywell be Sages position we will all see soon enough.

[DocBar]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

No, I am looking at Kubiak and Smith's track record. But for an injury to Spencer, it is entirely likely 4 of 5 3rd and 4th round picks under their regime would have been starters last year.



Helloooooo--point wasn't we need people at those positions--those were examples of getting starters in those rounds you so casually dismiss.



Yeah, and the problem with overvaluing backup QBs is they are sitting on the sideline with a clipboard.



That is as easy as a phone call away. Take the draft pick and then get on the horn to Leftwich, Culpepper or Tuiosopopo (or however the heck you spell his name). Upgrade your team with the draft pick while at most slightly downgrading your backup QB.

I'm OK with trading Sage, but not for a 3rd rounder. The guy stepped in last season and went 4-1 as a starter and our offense barely skipped a beat. That resulted in our 1st non-losing season as a franchise. That also makes Sage a valuable commodity since Schaub isn't 100% and noone knows when he will be. The teams front office is notorious for inaccurate information regarding player's health and timetables for their return. I would rather see us wait until draft day and if a player we had rated higher, that we really could use, falls to theat 3rd round spot, try and pull the trigger. I paraphrase another poster with " A QB in the hand is worth 2 draft picks on draft day" today.

[Trap_Star]

Originally Posted by Hook'er

Would you give Sage for Chester Taylor strait up?

NO. rather keep sage and draft Jonathan Stewart.

[NitroGSXR]

Originally Posted by Hervoyel

Well, last year at the 3 we got Jacoby Jones who everyone was ready to anoint as the next great WR to appear from a small "nowhere" school. Granted he's not a starter (yet) and he may never be if Davis and Walter continue to produce. At the 4 we got Fred Bennett who I believe ended the season as a starter and who will probably begin this coming season as one. Yes, we have had injuries. No, I don't see a lot of people upset that Fred is starting.

In 2006 we got Eric Winston and Charles Spencer back to back in the 3rd round and, but for a freak injury to Spencer we would have hit on a pair of starters in the 3rd. We also found Owen Daniels in the 4th who is a starter, or at the very least a heavy contributor.

In two drafts Kubiak and Kubiak+Smith have been 4 out of 5 in finding starters in the 3rd and 4th rounds of the draft. If Spencer comes back and can play again we will be looking at actually getting to see 4 "net" starters but I can't hold an injury against the guy's draft position.

If the Texans traded Sage for Minnesota's 3 I am pretty confident that we could get a starter there. You might have noticed that these guys we have drafting for us now are doing a pretty good job.

For what it's worth, I'm on your side and I think you've done an excellent job presenting yourself in this entire thread and I'm behind you.

Now... when you inherit a bad team as the Houston Texans were when Kubiak and Smith took over... it's not exactly very hard to draft starters in the later rounds. I really think that's a very important aspect to consider. I love what Smith and Kubiak have done so far and they've given me reasons to be excited about the upcoming season.

Albeit it's going to be a little harder for them to find starters down the road. The law of averages has to come into force somewhere. We can't simply be upgrading at the 3rd, 4th, and 5th round every year. There will be a time when we'll be drafting for depth which is what solid teams do. They don't go into the later part of the draft looking to get starters. They into the draft go looking for depth and if a standout happens then they'll have struck gold.

I believe that we're trying to build our team up the right way. Sage Rosenfels has a sell high value right now and the Texans must take it if a solid offer comes. I define solid as if a starter will come back to us. A 1st or 2nd round draft selections are starting material. Well.. I'm trying to say that the higher up in the draft they're selected... the chances of them starting are greater. And that's when I'd sell Sage Rosenfels. We're still building our team. That's my logic trying to tell me something. Eh.

Moving on up. Moving on up to the East Sideeeee. Or however the theme song goes.

[TK_Gamer]

Originally Posted by NitroHonda

Well.. I'm trying to say that the higher up in the draft they're selected... the chances of them starting are greater. And that's when I'd sell Sage Rosenfels. We're still building our team. That's my logic trying to tell me something. Eh.

Moving on up. Moving on up to the East Sideeeee. Or however the theme song goes.

IMHO that logic is what is wrong with trying to make need picks in the draft. I think its a misconception that just because a player goes early, they have a better chance at starting in the NFL. The problem is one word: HYPE , that is the predominant reason this guy goes in the first and this other guy goes in the third. I do think that high draft picks "get" a better chance to start, but I dont think they all earn a better chance. Every year there are literally thousands of prospects spread all over the country in big schools and small ones, the scouts perception of their ability slant the value of each of them, so a lot fall through the cracks. That is what a good draft team capitalizes on, the ones that fall through the cracks of the "hype" system.
Thus far our team has just done a good job of finding talent and ignoring hype. Sorry for rambling.

[NitroGSXR]

Originally Posted by TK_Gamer

IMHO that logic is what is wrong with trying to make need picks in the draft. I think its a misconception that just because a player goes early, they have a better chance at starting in the NFL. The problem is one word: HYPE , that is the predominant reason this guy goes in the first and this other guy goes in the third. I do think that high draft picks "get" a better chance to start, but I dont think they all earn a better chance. Every year there are literally thousands of prospects spread all over the country in big schools and small ones, the scouts perception of their ability slant the value of each of them, so a lot fall through the cracks. That is what a good draft team capitalizes on, the ones that fall through the cracks of the "hype" system.
Thus far our team has just done a good job of finding talent and ignoring hype. Sorry for rambling.

I don't really agree with you for the most part. Sure, superficial 'hype' plays a part in all of this but I'll take the guy who's got the size, measurables, and anything else that a general NFL team considers to be worthy of taking in the first and second rounds. The higher up you're drafted, the better your chances are of becoming a starter. I don't have anything to back me up on this but I'm pretty sure I'm right on this. If anyone's willing to do the numbers on what the percentages are of where starters remain in each round of the draft. I'll think that a first day pick's gonna more inclined to still have a job in the NFL starting over a second day pick. Sure, some guys slip through the cracks but just how often does that happen? Hence why I call them as of discovering gold. It's a pleasant surprise when you're able to get something solid in a place that's not really known for finding sure things.

I think the hype goes crazy when a player is trying to be deemed as the second coming of whatever. Anything less than that doesn't really sound too feastable. In other words, players vying for the top selections in the draft are the ones who generally get hyped up. I don't think we've all seen too many players get hyped up too much in the lower first round or second round. Maybe I'm wrong. I'm just talking out of my rear end here but it's my logic.

Either way, it wasn't really the point that I was trying to make. I was more of trying to stress that it's simply easier to find a starter deeper in the draft when you've got a weak team. I wasn't questioning Kubiak or Smith's talent.

[GP]

As much as the pro-Schaub people say "people are affected by David Carr," I would say that the pro-Schaub people haven't been affected ENOUGH. We keep crowning QBs, and history keeps repeating itself.

I think the talks with the Vikings are not alive, and they are not dead either. I think the talks are dormant until the draft. The Vikings and Texans, IMO, are waiting to see how the draft shakes down...and if a deal is beneficial to both sides, as players come off the board and each team sees what's left, we'll see Sage shipped off to the Vikings.

If Smith and Kubiak felt comfortable enough to even allow the talks with the Vikings in the first place, then I'd say it's not over with yet. And this is very intriguing because it seems that Kubiak/Smith are prepared to do something at QB which nips Sage out of the picture.

There will be a draft-day trade, and Sage is the main ingredient. He did well last season, and we need extra picks in the worst way.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by Dallas_Texan

No They Don't!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They Don't Want To Trade Chester For Sage, So Lock Up This Frickin Thread

I Can't Take Opening This Page Everyday And Falling For It Again!! I'm Not At My Best In The Morning!

Insanity: Continuing to do the same thing while hoping for a different result.

[TK_Gamer]

Originally Posted by NitroHonda

Either way, it wasn't really the point that I was trying to make. I was more of trying to stress that it's simply easier to find a starter deeper in the draft when you've got a weak team. I wasn't questioning Kubiak or Smith's talent.

I know what your getting at, more like it's easier for a lesser player to make the team on a team with less talent, and I agree. But think about this, Is Demeco good because he's on the Texans? NO, because he is not rated by the league as a comparison to the players on "our" team. He is rated by how well he plays "against" players from other teams. He didnt get all those tackles against our team. We are really the only ones that compare our players to our other players, the rest of the league looks at it totally different. In the end the players from the weaker team are actually more talented because they have less of a supporting cast.

As far as the first day -second day thing goes, mathmaticly there are many more players in the NFL that are not first rounders or second rounders than there are ones that are. In the end the biggest difference becomes the cost of their initial contracts...

[badboy]

Originally Posted by Hervoyel

It's a dangerous thing falling in love with a backup QB. You think that you see something that everyone else has simply overlooked. In the vast majority of cases you're seeing an illusion. Every once in a while somebody has a Brett Favre sitting on the end of their depth chart waiting to be given a shot but it doesn't happen very often. Mostly you're looking at A.J. Feeley or Scott Mitchell or, god forbid Cody Carlson.

I'm not calling for the Texans to trade Sage. I'm not going to be upset if he stays (or goes for that matter). I'm just saying that I get the feeling he'll probably be moved before the draft. Maybe I'm wrong. It wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong. I just think it's going to happen.

Who are you refering to "falling in love with a back up QB"? Texans fans or Vikings? If Vikings love Sage enough to offer a third they may love him enough to offer a second. As a Texans fan I'd love that.

[Hervoyel]

I was saying that Porky had fallen in love with Sage and wasn't seeing things clearly. That was merely my opinion of course.

Remember that while it's important to have a quality backup QB it's also an unfortunate fact of the game that only one guy can play QB at a time. If you have Drew Brees and Philip Rivers you're going to eventually let one go. If you have David Anderson and Brady Quinn you're going to eventually let one go. If you have Troy Aikman and Steve Walsh you're going to fleece the Saints out of three draft picks while you can.

Any team that has more than one QB with value (real value or perceived, doesn't matter) as a starter under contract will be trying to make sure that they get something for the one they do not intend to keep. You do that balancing act of keeping both of them for as long as you can and then you pull the trigger and make your team better. There is a shortage of quality starting QB's in the league that will always provide a market for backups who appear ready to make that jump to full time starter. Somebody will always be ready to pay to find their QB.

For the record guys I want a 2 for Sage as well. I think it might be possible to get it but (and here's where many of us differ) I'd take the 3 if that's all I could get. I think a 2 is possible however. If I were the Texans I'd be trying just as hard to hold out for the 2. If Sage is ready to start and isn't another A.J. Feeley then the 2 would be a good deal for the Vikings and not shabby for us (considering his age). a 2 feels right to me. Getting a 3 would be acceptable (to me) but a 2 would be spot on.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

No, I am looking at Kubiak and Smith's track record. But for an injury to Spencer, it is entirely likely 4 of 5 3rd and 4th round picks under their regime would have been starters last year.



Helloooooo--point wasn't we need people at those positions--those were examples of getting starters in those rounds you so casually dismiss.



Yeah, and the problem with overvaluing backup QBs is they are sitting on the sideline with a clipboard.



That is as easy as a phone call away. Take the draft pick and then get on the horn to Leftwich, Culpepper or Tuiosopopo (or however the heck you spell his name). Upgrade your team with the draft pick while at most slightly downgrading your backup QB.

Just a thought. We sign Stewart in first at 18. Charles Godfrey CB in 3rd and Tony Hills LT in 4th. On draft day we trade Sage for Viking's 2nd round. IMO CB, LT & RB are biggest needs and in this scenario filled. Would the player we use Vikings pick on as a 4th "need" be more valuable to team than Sage? I realize that the 2nd could be used to upgrade one of of the positions I draft in 3rd or 4th, but hopefully you understand my question. We would pick up a veteran QB for back up. I think if I had all those picks I could go 1)Stewart 2) Anthony Collins,Cherilus or Baker for LT 3) Godfrey 4) Booty or Brennan for your future QB or Schaub b/up.
Thoughts, anyone?

[Texans_Chick]

Originally Posted by Hervoyel

One thing I tried to go into earlier in this thread was that if Schaub just explodes while walking out onto the field next year and literally there isn't a scrap of him big enough to merit burying then this team is not going to go into 2009 with Sage Rosenfels as the starter. They're going to go find someone they want as their starter be it through free agency, a trade, or more than likely the draft.

Kubiak had a chance to go with Sage as the man. He passed and he did so at a pretty high cost. Nobody will convince me that Kubiak doesn't know exactly what he has in Sage Rosenfels and that he's going to just say "Well, it's pretty bad about Matt exploding and all <thumps podium and looks at feet> but we got Sage and he's the starter now." when camp starts in 2009. It's not going to happen.

The point is that everyone says "we NEED Sage.... just in case" but in the worst version of the worst case scenario here Sage is going to be a placeholder until they can bring in their next "franchise QB". He's not going to be the replacement for Schaub. What's more is that this next hypothetical franchise QB isn't going to have a lengthy multi-year spin up time before he's ready. He won't be David Carr getting 5 years to learn the position. In the rest of the NFL, in the real world nobody does that and now neither do we. We're not going to "need" Sage until the rookie (most likely) is "ready". They're going to do a Jay Cutler on him and he'll be playing by the end of his first season. Sage will be back on the bench holding the clipboard and waiting for free agency to strike again. Then he'll sign with somebody else so he can start which he has said he wants to do and we'll get nothing for him. That's nothing as in zip, nada, zero.

And we'll be looking through that pile of scraps for our newest insurance policy that Kubiak can coach up.

The people who believe that Sage will somehow beat out Schaub for the job or take us to the playoffs if Schaub goes down have already shown me that they can't see the difference between Sage's starts and Matt's starts.

I firmly believe that David Carr's time here in Houston has done something to Texans fans ability to accurately and impartialy judge what they see.

I think there is a lot of truth in what you are saying but also what people are saying who are very resistant in trading Rosenfels.

There's pros and cons to both Schaub and Rosenfels, like there are with any player. I think the biggest reason why people are resistant to trading Rosenfels is not because they think we are trading away the next Favre, but rather we still don't know exactly what we have in Schaub.

I also think that Rosenfels' wage to ability ratio is great at a key position for the team, that it allows the Texans to put only two quarterbacks on the roster, and that you aren't taking a position of strength for the team and making it into a big worry and questionmark. You don't have to be preparing up a #2 to potentially start or scramble to even find that guy in a league that has become a developmental wasteland for QBs (teams suiting up only 2 QBs, no Europa league, etc).

If Schaub were a more proven guy, I don't think we have this debate. I see him still as an incomplete. Not that I think that Rosenfels is better, but I'd like to see Schaub get through an NFL season.

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by badboy

Thoughts, anyone?

I think the trade would be pointless to a bad idea if you use a pick on a QB.

[beerlover]

Schaub & Sage = franchise QB

why do so many Texans fans want to mess a good thing up

[badboy]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

I think the trade would be pointless to a bad idea if you use a pick on a QB.

Even if you get a starter at need position with the 2nd round pick and can get a good prospect later in draft for QB? I don't think I can agree with that.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by beerlover

Schaub & Sage = franchise QB

why do so many Texans fans want to mess a good thing up

Your math is worse than mine.

[Texans_Chick]

BTW, something to put into your analysis:

HT.com Schaub's Shoulder Getting Stronger

Glad to hear. Even so. Texans. Injuries. I never like to plan for the best given our unlucky history.

I have to say this is another factor that gives me a bit of the willies if you were wanting trading a known-quantity backup.