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Old 03-01-2008   #1
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Default Players likely to be available at and worth #18

I sometimes get confused with just where various players are expected to go, who we might be able to choose from at pick 18, etc. I wanted to know who would is likely to be available to choose from, and who is genrally considered "worth" a number 18 pick. So, I went out and looked at 6 post-combine mocks posted online (scout.com, Don Banks at SI.com, NFLDraftCoundown, WalterFootball, and two at NFLDraftScout.com), to see where the general consensus was.

Based on that, there are 11 players for which there's a consensus that they'll be gone by our pick:
Chris Long
Jake Long
Darren McFadden
Matt Ryan
Sedrick Ellis
Vernon Gholston
Glenn Dorsey
Ryan Clady
Leodis McKelvin
Mike Jenkins
Philip Merling

Five of the six also had these three players gone before us (and all had them taken in the first round):
Keith Rivers
Rashard Mendenhall
Derrick Harvey

So, we can probably assume those 14 are gone, and we're left to choose from the rest (though three others will probably be selected first). Now, I wanted to see who would be considered "worth" a number 18 pick. The following are the list of players that at least 4 of the 6 mocks had as being taken in the first round, and that at least 2 of the 6 had as being taken at 18 or earlier.
  • Malcom Kelly (taken in all 6, ranged from 11 to 22)
  • Jonathan Stewart (taken in all 6, ranged from 13 to 25)
  • Chris Williams (taken in all 6, ranged from 13 to 25)
  • Aqib Talib (taken in 5 of 6, ranged from 7 to 30)
  • Limas Sweed (taken in 5 of 6, ranged from 11 to 26)
  • Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (taken in 5 of 6, ranged from 10 to 30)
  • Jeff Otah (taken in 4 of 6, ranged from 14 to 23)
So, out of those 7, we ought to have at least 4 to choose from. Kelly and Sweed are probably not on our radar (can't see us drafting a WR high), and Otah is probably a bad fit for the ZBS we're shifting to. But, we should be able to get one of the other 4, and they all see pretty good options.
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Old 03-01-2008   #2
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

If Williams is off the board, then I'm still of the opinion that we should take Antoine Cason.

The guy is supremely underrated by mock drafters. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go before 18 on draft day.
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Old 03-01-2008   #3
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

I would rank them like this:

Chris Williams
Jonathan Stewart
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Aqib Talib
Jeff Otah
Malcom Kelly
Limas Sweed

I expect Brandon Flowers to be in the mix though as well.
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Old 03-02-2008   #4
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

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Originally Posted by nero THE zero View Post

I expect Brandon Flowers to be in the mix though as well.
I don't. Flowers is not a first round talent.
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Old 03-02-2008   #5
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

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Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
If Williams is off the board, then I'm still of the opinion that we should take Antoine Cason.

The guy is supremely underrated by mock drafters. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go before 18 on draft day.
I like Cason as well, but talking to my people, as of right now, he isn't expected to go in the first round. He is looking like a mid second, but some of my sources have him slipping to the early third.
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Old 03-02-2008   #6
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

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Originally Posted by YoungTexanFan View Post
I like Cason as well, but talking to my people, as of right now, he isn't expected to go in the first round. He is looking like a mid second, but some of my sources have him slipping to the early third.
I just dont see what Cason has done to make his stock drop.

He was pretty much considered a consensus 1st rounder last year. Now he wins the Thorpe, runs a decent 40 time & looks good in drills at the combine, but he is falling?

I'm not buying it.

I would consider my specialty to be in the secondary, and everybody misses a few, but I haven't missed many recently. I think Cason has 1st round talent.
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Old 03-02-2008   #7
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

Quote:
Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
I just dont see what Cason has done to make his stock drop.

He was pretty much considered a consensus 1st rounder last year. Now he wins the Thorpe, runs a decent 40 time & looks good in drills at the combine, but he is falling?

I'm not buying it.

I would consider my specialty to be in the secondary, and everybody misses a few, but I haven't missed many recently. I think Cason has 1st round talent.
Agree with this. I'd trust Cason to be our #2 corner from day 1, easily.

If he and DRC are there at #18 and Mike Jenkins, and Leodis McKelvin are gone, I would probably draft Cason just because we need a guy who we can bank on to start right away. That is if are targeting one of those corners.
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Old 03-02-2008   #8
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

Quote:
Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
I just dont see what Cason has done to make his stock drop.

He was pretty much considered a consensus 1st rounder last year. Now he wins the Thorpe, runs a decent 40 time & looks good in drills at the combine, but he is falling?

I'm not buying it.

I would consider my specialty to be in the secondary, and everybody misses a few, but I haven't missed many recently. I think Cason has 1st round talent.
This is projection vs performance .
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Old 03-04-2008   #9
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

Quote:
Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
I just dont see what Cason has done to make his stock drop.

He was pretty much considered a consensus 1st rounder last year. Now he wins the Thorpe, runs a decent 40 time & looks good in drills at the combine, but he is falling?

I'm not buying it.

I would consider my specialty to be in the secondary, and everybody misses a few, but I haven't missed many recently. I think Cason has 1st round talent.
Maybe it has to do with what other players are doing or how needs are being perceived. Maybe it is not him slipping but others moving up?
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Old 03-04-2008   #10
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

My trust in Smith and Kubes has effected me to this extent. The signing of Reeves seems to indicate he will have a legitimate shot at starter. I do not think he would have signed here if he thought Texans would spend a first round at his position. The money may be the same but the glory is not. So, if CB is removed from the immediate equation, I'd go with RB unless Vanderbilt's Williams is available at #18. I have frequently said go with the possible franchise RB as no franchise type LT will be at #18. If Stewart (M. being gone by then) and Williams are both there? Man oh man. I first would hope that somebody just a few spots below us did not need a LT or RB and would trade up to get 18 and give us anything extra. I just do not see that. I could probably be talked into changing my mind, again and again, but for right this minute would draft Williams. I think he can be a 12 year player and Stewart about 8 as a starter.
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Old 03-04-2008   #11
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

I'm actually thinking Green Bay might be interested in moving up with us now that Farve is gone. Arron Rodgers is not the answer. Maybe Brohm is there and they want to make sure they get him. Just throwing stuff out there.
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Old 03-04-2008   #12
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

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Originally Posted by YoungTexanFan View Post
I'm actually thinking Green Bay might be interested in moving up with us now that Farve is gone. Arron Rodgers is not the answer. Maybe Brohm is there and they want to make sure they get him. Just throwing stuff out there.
What would the offer be? Do you see CB as major issue now Reeves is aboard? I can't see him signing if he thought CB would be a first round consideration for Texans.
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Old 03-04-2008   #13
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

Quote:
Originally Posted by badboy View Post
What would the offer be? Do you see CB as major issue now Reeves is aboard? I can't see him signing if he thought CB would be a first round consideration for Texans.
I don't think Reeves is coming in as a starter. I think he is more of a Von Hutchins type signing. He will compete for the starting job, but he is not cemented as a starter. Even if he wins that role, it will be after the draft, and even considering that, we still need a true #1 CB...even when Daunta returns.

I don't know what the offer will be, but Green Bay was a playoff team, so their pick is later in the first, and their second rounder could be essentially equal to a third on the value chart. So, possibly a second and like a 3rd next year and a swap of our first rounders this year.
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Old 03-04-2008   #14
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

Quote:
Originally Posted by badboy View Post
Maybe it has to do with what other players are doing or how needs are being perceived. Maybe it is not him slipping but others moving up?
That definitely could be it. But I just think there are some big ?'s with those corners that are getting all the hype now. I guess when it comes down to it the really solid players do go late 1st round and early-mid 2nd round. They may not be the sexiest, or have as high of ceiling but so so many are just really sound football players.


All I know is that I'd be very very careful spending an early 1st rd pick on a Corner this year.
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Old 03-04-2008   #15
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

I want to just jump in here... and I don't know anything about any of the college players, so I'm going to ask this question.

Everyone has us picking LT, RB, or CB (with the S thrown in occasionally.) But is it possible that Keith Rivers the LB is sitting there and would he fit with our team?
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Old 03-04-2008   #16
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

I would like to have Keith Rivers, but I done see any way that he falls to 18.
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Old 03-04-2008   #17
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

I'd hop all over the Green Bay trade (unless there is a LT available that Gibbs knows will be a pro-bowl franchise type for us).

Houston #18: 900 points
Green Bay #30: 620 points
Green Bay #61ish: 292 points

So we'd get their 1st and 2nd (roughly 912 points) and they'd receive our 1st (900 points). Their pick may be off a tad because of NE not having 'their' 1st rd pick + Indy and Dallas both had the same record as GB so they may alternate somehow. We may have to give up like a 6th or 7th to make the "points" equal, but then again they may have to pay a "premium" for our pick.

(*Dream scenario: Draft day trades of (1) Sage Rosenfels to a team like Minnesota for their 2nd round pick; Smith and Kubiak already have a few veteran QB's in mind to sign as FA's but Schaub never gets hurt so it's a moot point anyway and (2) No 'must have players' available for us at #18 but Green Bay HAS to have a certain player. We trade our 1st for their 1st and later 2nd rd picks.

So we roughly have First day picks of:
1st Round: Pick #30 (Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona)
2nd Round: Picks #17 (Anthony Collins, LT, Kansas) and #30 (Matt Forte, RB, Tulane)

We'd also have our 3rd round picks-on, to play with grabbing some quality offensive lineman (guards and/or tackles), pass rushing defensive end, and whoever else they like.
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Old 03-04-2008   #18
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

Quote:
Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
I just dont see what Cason has done to make his stock drop.

He was pretty much considered a consensus 1st rounder last year. Now he wins the Thorpe, runs a decent 40 time & looks good in drills at the combine, but he is falling?

I'm not buying it.

I would consider my specialty to be in the secondary, and everybody misses a few, but I haven't missed many recently. I think Cason has 1st round talent.
Agreed. Said it before and i am sure i am looking likea broken record. Guy has Leon Hall last year written all over him. Nitpicked by pundits up to the draft but as the day got there Cinci looked at the Tape, took him, and was rewarded with 5 ints.
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Old 03-04-2008   #19
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

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Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan View Post
I'd hop all over the Green Bay trade (unless there is a LT available that Gibbs knows will be a pro-bowl franchise type for us).

Houston #18: 900 points
Green Bay #30: 620 points
Green Bay #61ish: 292 points

So we'd get their 1st and 2nd (roughly 912 points) and they'd receive our 1st (900 points). Their pick may be off a tad because of NE not having 'their' 1st rd pick + Indy and Dallas both had the same record as GB so they may alternate somehow. We may have to give up like a 6th or 7th to make the "points" equal, but then again they may have to pay a "premium" for our pick.

(*Dream scenario: Draft day trades of (1) Sage Rosenfels to a team like Minnesota for their 2nd round pick; Smith and Kubiak already have a few veteran QB's in mind to sign as FA's but Schaub never gets hurt so it's a moot point anyway and (2) No 'must have players' available for us at #18 but Green Bay HAS to have a certain player. We trade our 1st for their 1st and later 2nd rd picks.

So we roughly have First day picks of:
1st Round: Pick #30 (Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona)
2nd Round: Picks #17 (Anthony Collins, LT, Kansas) and #30 (Matt Forte, RB, Tulane)

We'd also have our 3rd round picks-on, to play with grabbing some quality offensive lineman (guards and/or tackles), pass rushing defensive end, and whoever else they like.
WoW!!!

This would be a dream senario
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Old 03-04-2008   #20
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Default Re: Players likely to be available at and worth #18

Keith Rivers would be BPA at 18, and he would upgrade any LB position, though he should play outside.
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