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Old 01-03-2008   #1
Texans_Chick
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Default Football Outsiders DVOA

Final Stats are up on all the teams in the league on Football Outsiders.

The Texans final rankings are

Offense -13
Defense -30
Special Teams-3

Check out the detailed rankings here.

Stark, isn't it?

Here's the specific rankings for defense:

Last year, they were 31st in the league, so they improved by one spot relative to their peers.

Against the pass they were 27th. Against the rush they were 29th.


Given all the defensive coordinators who have been kicked to the curb so far, how come Richard Smith being a gonner doesn't get into the discussion by the Chronicle?

Solomon has spoken about it some, how he doesn't like some of the defensive scheme calls.
Zierlein says he's seen some bright spots with scheme.
McClain has a soft spot for ex-Oilers. He talked about fans in general calling for the heads of lots of Texans coaches and through Smith into the mix, but given how the play of the defense is an albatross to the team, I think having a Smith only discussion is valid.
Justice doesn't talk Texans unless it has something to do with the head coach, quarterback or Mario. He says hey, don't know how much is player available due to injury v. coaches/scheme.
Manfull, I'm not sure have any opinions different than anyone elses. Campbell is too new to the beat.
Robertson has interesting stuff to say about the Texans, but not of this sort of nature.

Stats don't tell the whole story. Certainly, it would have helped the defense to not have so many offensive turnovers and get put on their heels a lot defending short fields.

Even so, when facing good offenses, the Texans look horrible.
When facing bad offenses, the Texans have to hope for the offenses to make mistakes. Errant throws. Or bad play calling (like giving up on the run when they don't need to).

The Jags game is typical of the type of defense the Texans played all year. They were playing ahead for most of the game. At home. Against a bunch of backups. And looked like poop on a stick.

I know a lot of people might say that there needs some gelling. I can see that on the offense--there's enough bright parts of that where I can see that getting to know the offense better will help.

The only thing I see on defense is smelling. Just a few outstanding individual efforts in a pile of goo. I don't think Smith is going to get canned, but I sure would like something to make me feel better about the defense going into year 3 Kubiak other than, gee our guys will be more experienced.

Oh, and Joe Marciano for president.
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Old 01-03-2008   #2
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Follow on stats from Cold, Hard, Football:

Passing yards per attempt--5th--huge improvement.
Defensive passer rating--30th--continuing a tradition of making bad QB's look good.
Offensive Hog Index--13th--big improvement, mainly due to QB rather than OL.
Defensive Hog Index--31st--can't stop run or pass on consistent basis.
Big Play Index--20th--If we didn't shoot ourselves with so many fumbles and INT's.
Relativity Index--16th--hey mid pack is an improvement.
Bendability Index--20th
Scoreability Index--11th--big improvement, not hollow yards but points.
Special Teams--3rd--Yay coach Joe.

Link
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Old 01-03-2008   #3
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Follow on stats from Cold, Hard, Football:

Passing yards per attempt--5th--huge improvement.
Defensive passer rating--30th--continuing a tradition of making bad QB's look good.
Offensive Hog Index--13th--big improvement, mainly due to QB rather than OL.
Defensive Hog Index--31st--can't stop run or pass on consistent basis.
Big Play Index--20th--If we didn't shoot ourselves with so many fumbles and INT's.
Relativity Index--16th--hey mid pack is an improvement.
Bendability Index--20th
Scoreability Index--11th--big improvement, not hollow yards but points.
Special Teams--3rd--Yay coach Joe.

Link

The interesting thing here is that we were tied for 7th with big plays made but we were tied for 30th in big plays give up.

If we could clean up the turnovers (and fix that whole defense thing), we'd be monsters.

Monsters, I say!
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Old 01-03-2008   #4
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
The interesting thing here is that we were tied for 7th with big plays made but we were tied for 30th in big plays give up.

If we could clean up the turnovers (and fix that whole defense thing), we'd be monsters.

Monsters, I say!
Pony, flaming meatball, and kitty kat eating big hairy monsters!

Seriously, I agree with the general sentiment of something has to be done about the defense. Too much money and talent to be sucking bilge water like they do.
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Old 01-03-2008   #5
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Anyone know how we are ranked on sacks given up? Can't find it.....
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Old 01-03-2008   #6
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Quote:
Originally Posted by atxcoolguy View Post
Anyone know how we are ranked on sacks given up? Can't find it.....
Surprising--thou's stat finding skills are weak.

6th in the NFL.

Interestingly, only 2 of the 5 teams ahead are in the playoffs--Green Bay and New England.
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Old 01-03-2008   #7
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Surprising--thou's stat finding skills are weak.

6th in the NFL.

Interestingly, only 2 of the 5 teams ahead are in the playoffs--Green Bay and New England.
Just lazy....I checked nfl.com and didn't find it within 5 minutes and gave up. Not too big into stats so I don't really know where to look. But thanks for letting me know, I knew we had to be pretty good in that category this year.
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Old 01-03-2008   #8
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Follow on stats from Cold, Hard, Football:

Passing yards per attempt--5th--huge improvement.
Defensive passer rating--30th--continuing a tradition of making bad QB's look good.
Offensive Hog Index--13th--big improvement, mainly due to QB rather than OL.
Defensive Hog Index--31st--can't stop run or pass on consistent basis.
Big Play Index--20th--If we didn't shoot ourselves with so many fumbles and INT's.
Relativity Index--16th--hey mid pack is an improvement.
Bendability Index--20th
Scoreability Index--11th--big improvement, not hollow yards but points.
Special Teams--3rd--Yay coach Joe.

Link
Interesting link. I like the names: Hog Index, Bendability Index.

I've always classified Smith's defense as a Bend but Don't Break defense. Apparently, it bends, bends, and then breaks!

I've stated on a couple of different occasions that coach Smith would get a pass this year because of all the injuries. I don't know that I agree with this line of thought, but its just a gut feeling I get when I watch Kubes' pressers.

Considering the strength of our defense is the front seven, I don't think you cans sit back and play the Tampa 2 all day. You've got to be a little blitz happy to take the pressure off the DBs. Stick the corners up on the line and play bump and run. Its a very risky defense the Raider's use to use a lot. Of course they had hall of fame corners at the time so it wasn't as risky for them as it would be for us.
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Old 01-03-2008   #9
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

I had not looked at the final stats as of yet, but all I can say about this is.



D A M N !!
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Old 01-04-2008   #10
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Other points to make on Texans defense at the end of the year:

24th in yards allowed per game

22nd is points given up per game

21st in total sacks

10th in total tackles

30th in interceptions
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Old 01-04-2008   #11
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Much worse than I had expected. I had seen something about a week ago that had us at 24th overall in defense. Obviously that didn't tell the whole story.

I continue to be unimpressed with Richard Smith and his defense. They're simply not good. Even when they were mostly healthy this year they were not very good. Sometimes you saw other teams inexplicably just stop doing what was working and kill their own drives but I don't think very many people were fooled into believing that this was a reflection of our defensive "might". Miami comes to mind when they just quit giving Brown the football for no apparent reason, we hadn't stopped him once all day.
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Old 01-04-2008   #12
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Serious Question.....

I know Kubes is in love with Richard Smith, what would you say is the honest probability of us getting rid of him this year?? In your realistic opinons?
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Old 01-04-2008   #13
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dallas_Texan View Post
Serious Question.....

I know Kubes is in love with Richard Smith, what would you say is the honest probability of us getting rid of him this year?? In your realistic opinons?
From what I've seen there's been no indication that it's even an option. I'd go with an optimistic 10%.
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Old 01-04-2008   #14
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

We trust the head coach and GM with player selection, training, etc. As much as I am unsatisfied with D, I guess if Smith is here in 08, I know why.
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Old 01-04-2008   #15
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dallas_Texan View Post
Serious Question.....

I know Kubes is in love with Richard Smith, what would you say is the honest probability of us getting rid of him this year?? In your realistic opinons?
2%

The Texans are pretty good about keeping information in house, and Kubiak rarely dumps guys in the grease publicly. The Texans always prefer to let people leave with dignity. And are niiiiiiice.

So, if they are double plus unhappy with Smith to the extent of wanting to give him his walking papers, they are being pretty sneaky about it. They've let guys go in the past without much telegraphing of it.

Given what has been said publicly and the defense of Smith publicly, and the praise for him when good stuff happens, I am guessing he stays. He gets a pass because of the injured secondary and the rebuilding of the entire defense. And that gelling thing.

I believe he is over his head. Yes, there have been injuries, but I haven't seen enough bright spots on this defense to think it will get significantly better. There have been some great individual efforts on the defense, but nothing that suggests to me that the coaches can make this defense better than the sum of its parts.
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Old 01-04-2008   #16
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
I believe he is over his head. Yes, there have been injuries, but I haven't seen enough bright spots on this defense to think it will get significantly better. There have been some great individual efforts on the defense, but nothing that suggests to me that the coaches can make this defense better than the sum of its parts.

I agree with that. I thought at the beginning of the season we would have a better defense than the colts with all their personnel changes, they adjusted quite nicely on the fly and I hate to admit that.
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Old 01-04-2008   #17
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Quote:
A positive DVOA represents that the offense is more likely to score, and a negative DVOA represents that the defense is more likely to stop them
Without considering where the opponent's drive started?

The Texans offense's glut of turnovers put the defense in bad field position on a regular basis - especially during that bad mid-season stretch.

I take stats like this with a grain. You certainly can't take stats like this and determine if good or bad is the result of coaching or talent - or what combination of the two is the most accurate.
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Old 01-04-2008   #18
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Maybe the more important stats are these:

We played 6 games against our divisional rivals who all made the play-offs, plus SD and TB.

The Browns were in it to the end.
The Saints, and the Panthers would have had a better shot if we hadn't taken them down.
As well as the Broncos, albeit a very long shot.

That wasn't an easy schedule.
And we had a chance to win another 2-3 games.
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Old 01-04-2008   #19
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Quote:
Originally Posted by aj. View Post
Without considering where the opponent's drive started?
There is a stat for the initial LOS on another page.

The Texans were 24th in opponents initial LOS (31.95 yard line)

The Texans were 24th in offense initial LOS (29.48 yard line)

I think the answer to whether the coaches or players need to get better is: Yes. To both. Having to play Faggins, Hutchins, Fletcher, Wynn at corner put the defense on it's heels. That Brown and Demps don't have great range or coverage skills probably made the coaching staff reticent to blitz. So instead, offenses just picked the defense apart with short to intermediate passes.

If the Texans shore up their secondary, will the coaches be able to change their scheme and become more aggressive? I would think so. And remember, the Texans defense has a lot of young talent that has their best football ahead of them. I just don't think it's a good idea to force a new coaching staff on guys like Williams, Ryans, & Okoye at this point in their career. Give them another year in the league before throwing a new system at them.
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Old 01-04-2008   #20
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Default Re: Football Outsiders DVOA

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
2%

The Texans are pretty good about keeping information in house, and Kubiak rarely dumps guys in the grease publicly. The Texans always prefer to let people leave with dignity. And are niiiiiiice.

So, if they are double plus unhappy with Smith to the extent of wanting to give him his walking papers, they are being pretty sneaky about it. They've let guys go in the past without much telegraphing of it.

Given what has been said publicly and the defense of Smith publicly, and the praise for him when good stuff happens, I am guessing he stays. He gets a pass because of the injured secondary and the rebuilding of the entire defense. And that gelling thing.

I believe he is over his head. Yes, there have been injuries, but I haven't seen enough bright spots on this defense to think it will get significantly better. There have been some great individual efforts on the defense, but nothing that suggests to me that the coaches can make this defense better than the sum of its parts.
I saw that an assistant DB coach was let go. It pretty much went under the radar.
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