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Old 12-24-2007   #1
keyser
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Default Draft position

I know I should just wait a day for this (though the Denver/SD game won't affect what I write below), but I'm wanting to find a bright spot from the loss today. So, I took a look at the perennial "bright spot" for losing teams: the draft order.

With only one game to go, there are 8 teams guaranteed to have worse records than us (5-10 or worse), and 12 guaranteed to have better records (9-6 or better). There are 12 teams within one game of us. So, that means we'll end up picking somewhere betwen 9th and 20th. Actually, I expect that the next tiebreaker after record (strength of schedule) is already determined enough that we can't get all those spots. Considering our division's record, I'm guessing our SoS is pretty high, meaning we'd be toward the later draft picks in any tiebreaker.

If we win next week, there could be at most 8 teams at 8-8 with us. That means we'd end up picking between 13 and 20 (again, the actual range is probably narrower due to strength of schedule).

If we lose next week, there could be at most 9 teams at 7-9 with us. That means we'd end up picking between 9 and 17.

Actually, I'm surprised at the range of possible places we could end up - I thought it would be a lot narrower. And, I was hoping our draft position would be better - doing this analysis didn't help to ease the loss today...
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Old 12-24-2007   #2
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Default Re: Draft position

have to wait until tonight after the Denver/San Diego game, but I would be very surprised if they the Broncos beat (move to #18) the Chargers (remain @ #27th win or lose). of the 7-8 teams only Philadelphia has a tougher strength of shedule so even though the Texans lost to the Colts yesterday it didn't improve our draft position much (16th) & remain out of the Kennny Phillips sweepstakes.

Last edited by beerlover; 12-25-2007 at 05:35 AM.
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Old 12-24-2007   #3
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Default Re: Draft position

I know Kenny Phillips is supposed to be a good player and I know that safety has been a nagging need (like LT) for us but I just can't see how adding a first round pick over CC Brown/Glenn Earl would be a better improvement for us than a first round pick LT over Ephraim Salaam or a first round pick RB over Ahman Green/Ron Dayne/Darius Walker.

Safety is an upgradeable position but we have much more pressing needs. I'd hate to see us pick a Kenny Phillips when there's a Rashard Mendenhal/Jonathan Stewart or a Ryan Clady/Jeff Otah availble.
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Old 12-24-2007   #4
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Default Re: Draft position

Miami has the only guaranteed spot here.

1. Miami
2. St. Louis
3. New York Jets
4. Atlanta
5. New England
6. Baltimore
7. Kansas City
8. Oakland
9. Cincinnati
10 . Chicago

Houston is picking 18th right now.
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Old 12-24-2007   #5
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Default Re: Draft position

Quote:
Originally Posted by nero THE zero View Post
I know Kenny Phillips is supposed to be a good player and I know that safety has been a nagging need (like LT) for us but I just can't see how adding a first round pick over CC Brown/Glenn Earl would be a better improvement for us than a first round pick LT over Ephraim Salaam or a first round pick RB over Ahman Green/Ron Dayne/Darius Walker.

Safety is an upgradeable position but we have much more pressing needs. I'd hate to see us pick a Kenny Phillips when there's a Rashard Mendenhal/Jonathan Stewart or a Ryan Clady/Jeff Otah availble.
Excellent post my good man, I agree that Phillips is a great player but we need to build up the front herd to help us in the running game. Stewart has caught my eye a lot more because of our draft position, but I'd go OL first.
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Old 12-24-2007   #6
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Default Re: Draft position

Depending on who comes out , the strength of the draft might be OTs and RBs .

This is good because we need both . Maybe at 17 or 18 we can get a really good player . Hopefully there will be Long , Clady , Baker , Boone , and Gosder at the very least for OTs .

Phillips will go quick like Landry . I'm not sure if there is a CB that would be better than an OT at 17 . Well according to this websight there's a lot of CBs and DTs also .

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...draftyear=2008

http://www.gbnreport.com/top100.html
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Last edited by Honoring Earl 34; 12-24-2007 at 02:22 PM.
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Old 12-24-2007   #7
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Default Re: Draft position

look @ it like this- Kenny Phillips is a everydown defensive playmaker that would upgrade our secondary immediately. the Texans don't have the luxury of using another high draft pick on a shutdown corner like Dunta. with Kenny the cover 2 works & we can wait for Dunta Robinson to return.

one more week & we will know excatly where the Texans pick. 7-9 given our strength of schedule & assuming the whole group as a whole loses then the 16th pick is about right. if the Texans win & finish 8-8 it looks like 18th not much difference. as always the incentive should be to win.

Phillips is the only underclassman so far who has deceided to come out early, Clady if he does will be gone & Stewart/Mendenhal have yet to deceide. If you use seniors only that leaves you (possible) Sam Baker, LT USC, Jeff Otah, LT Pitt & a new name to throw at you (I like him in a trade down scenero) RB Chris Johnson, East Carolina.

Last edited by beerlover; 12-25-2007 at 05:36 AM.
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Old 12-24-2007   #8
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Default Re: Draft position

Quote:
Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
look @ it like this- Kenny Phillips is a everydown defensive playmaker that would upgrade our secondary immediately. the Texans don't have the luxury of using another high draft pick on a shutdown corner like Dunta. with Kenny the cover 2 works & we can wait for Dunta Robinson to return.

one more week & we will know excatly where the Texans pick. 7-9 given our strength of schedule & assuming the whole group as a whole loses then the 17th pick is about right. if the Texans win & finish 8-8 it looks like 18th not much difference. as always the incentive should be to win.

Phillips is the only underclassman so far who has deceided to come out early, Clady if he does will be gone & Stewart/Mendenhal have yet to deceide. If you use seniors only that leaves you (possible) Sam Baker, LT USC, Jeff Otah, LT Pitt & a new name to throw at you (I like him in a trade down scenero) RB Chris Johnson, East Carolina.
I like Johnson to an extent, especially his wheels, but not in the first. No way, no how. Mendenhal is one of my favorite RB's in the draft. I do not think Stewart will be anything big in the NFL, and I do not support drafting him. Clady I would take in a heartbeat. Phillips will be a very good NFL S, though I don't know if he has the ability to slide over to FS, but he may slide down the board a little due to his mediocre season.

Kastofsna, I refuse to believe that Otah is a top 3 player. Refuse it. Clady is the best OT in the draft. I will laugh for years at the dolphins if yall take Long. I really don't know on Dorsey, I'm leaning more towards voting nay.
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Old 12-25-2007   #9
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Default Re: Draft position

Merry Christmas Texans, here is your updated draft selection order:

1 Miami 1-14 .533
2 St. Louis 3-12 .513
3 New York Jets 3-12 .525
4 Atlanta 3-12 .529
5 Kansas City 4-11 .508
6 Oakland 4-11 .513
7 Baltimore 4-11 .517
8 New England (from San Francisco) 5-10 .467
9 Cincinnati 6-9 .458
10 Denver 6-9 .525
11 Carolina 6-9 .533
12 Chicago 6-9 .554
13 Arizona 7-8 .438
14 New Orleans 7-8 .475
15 Buffalo 7-8 .508
16 Houston 7-8 .521
17 Detroit 7-8 .542
18 Philadelphia 7-8 .575
19 Minnesota 8-7 .500
20 Washington 8-7 .563
21 Tennessee 9-6 .500
22 Dallas (from Cleveland) 9-6 .425
23 Tampa Bay 9-6 .467
24 Seattle 10-5 .404
25 Pittsburgh 10-5 .442
26 San Diego 10-5 .500
27 New York Giants 10-5 .513
28 Jacksonville 11-4 .517
29 Green Bay 12-3 .471
30 San Francisco (from Indianapolis) 13-2 .508
31 Dallas 13-2 .492
32 New England (pick forfeited) 15-0 .467
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Old 12-26-2007   #10
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Default Re: Draft position

So you've got Steven Jackson, a prety fair RB...if J.J. Calls do you do the deal ?
Still think the two will move draft day if Miami dosen't take the Arkansas beast.

Could this be the year the OLT falls into our hands and we take the guy ? Naah.

I bet we end up with the Curl lipped Jane, King Dunlapped in to mediocrity, on day two.
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