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Old 11-18-2004   #1
Mistril48
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Default Packers Terrific 12 v. Texan Terrific 12

Old Posting (new posting below)

In a salary cap regime like the NFL, the value of a player is a function of his performance measured against his cap value. A non-expansion NFL team typically drafts 12 players (the “T12” if you will) in the first 3 rounds over a 4 year period. These 12 players are particularly valuable to a franchise in a salary cap regime, because they typically have much lower cap values than players signed through free agency. For example, Chester Pitts has a 2004 cap value of $705,000, but Steve McKinney has a 2004 cap value of $3,050,000.

Typically, an impact player becomes a free agent after four accrued years and either leaves, or receives his first big free agency contract. Each year, a franchise typically loses 3 first day drafted players to free agency (unless they re-sign the players) and get three replacements through the draft, thereby maintaining their T12 (in some cases, of course, a player drafted to be a T12 player won’t work out and a team may end up with less than 12, or a second day drafted player may excel, like Domanick Davis, thereby creating more than 12). McKinney, Bradford, Wong, Smith and Wade are all examples of four year players who got big raises to come to the Texans for their 5th year.

In the 2002 season, the Texans first year, they only had 5 T12 (1 first, 2 second and 2 third), while all the other teams had 12. Bummer. Unlike the Panthers and the Jaguars, the Texans weren’t given any extra first round picks. Hard to compete.

The good news is the Texans have now caught up, thanks to expansion picks and Charlie Casserly’s astute trades. They now have 12 players who they drafted on the first day. The Texans now have a T12 like other NFL teams. Good.

New Posting

How does the Texans next opponent, the Packers’, T12 compare with the Texans’ T12?

. . YR . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . YR . . . Packers (4 yrs)

F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .’01 .DE Jamaal Reynolds (rel)
I. . ’02 . QB David Carr . . . . . . . . . . .’02 WR Javon Walker
R . ’03 . WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . .‘03 .LB Nick Barnett
S . ’04 . CB Dunta Robinson . . . . . . . ’04 .CB Ahmad Carroll
T . ’04 . LB Jason Babin

S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .’01 WR Robert Ferguson
E . ’02 . WR Jabar Gaffney
C . ’02 . OL Chester Pitts
O . ’03 . TE Benny Joppru
N . ’04 . RB Tony Hollings
D

T . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’01 DB Bhawoh Jue
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .'01 LB Torrance Marshall
H . ’02 . OL Fred Weary . . . . . . . . . . .’02 DB Marques Anderson (Raiders)
. . .’02 . OL Charles Hill (released)
I . .’03 . LB Antwan Peek . . . . . . . . . . ’03 DE Kenny Peterson
. . .’03 . OL Seth Wand
R . .’03 .QB Dave Ragone
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’04 CB Joey Thomas
D. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’04 DT Donnell Washington
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’04 . P B J. Sanders


We’ve drafted 13 first day players and the Packers have drafted 12 first day players. The Texans have generated 7 starters (Carr, Johnson, Gaffney, Pitts, Wand, Babin, Robinson) and the Packers have generated 4 starters (I think – Ferguson, Walker, Barnett, Carroll).


. . . . . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . . . . . Packers (4 yrs)

. . . . . . QB David Carr
. . . . . . QB Dave Ragone

. . . . . . RB Tony Hollings

. . . . . .WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . . . . WR Javon Walker
. . . . . .WR Jabar Gaffney . . . . . . . . . . .WR Robert Ferguson

. . . . . . TE Benny Joppru

. . . . . .OL Chester Pitts
. . . . . .OL Seth Wand
. . . . . .OL Fred Weary

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P . B J. Sanders

. . . . . .DL Charles Hill (released) . . . . . . . .DE Kenny Peterson
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DT Donnell Washington
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DE Jamaal Reynolds (rel)

. . . . . .LB Jason Babin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .LB Nick Barnett
. . . . . .LB Antwan Peek . . . . . . . . . . . . . LB Torrance Marshall

. . . . . .CB Dunta Robinson . . . . . . . . . . . .CB Ahmad Carroll
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CB Joey Thomas
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DB Bhawoh Jue
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DB Marques Anderson (Raiders)


Would you trade our players, above, for their players, above? I don’t think so.

Old Posting

And the news gets better for the Texans. In 2005, the Texans should keep all of their T12 (none will have four accrued years) and add 4 new members through the 2005 draft (1 first, 1 second and 2 thirds), giving them a total of 16 T12. Great news!


. . YR . . Texans (4 yrs)

F. .‘02 . QB David Carr
I . ’03 . WR Andre Johnson
R . ’04 . CB Dunta Robinson
S . ‘04 . LB Jason Babin
T . ’05 . . . . P I C K

S . ’02 . WR Jabar Gaffney
E . ’02 . OL Chester Pitts
C . ’03 . TE Benny Joppru
O . ’04 . RB Tony Hollings
N . ’05 . . . . P I C K
D

. . ‘02 . OL Fred Weary
T . ’02 . OL Charles Hill (released)
H . ’03 . LB Antwan Peek
I . ‘03 . OL Seth Wand
R . ‘03 . QB Dave Ragone
D . ’05 . . . . P I C K
. .. ’05 . . . . P I C K
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Old 11-18-2004   #2
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Having to release a first round pick had to be tough. Also Ahmad Carrol has been eaten alive in the secondary, but he is a rookie. They need to draft defense again this year. Having said that I wouldn't trade any of our picks for theirs.
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Old 11-18-2004   #3
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Carroll probably would have really benefited from another year in college. He might turn out fine but starting CB is a hard position to come into if a player isn't completely ready.
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Old 11-19-2004   #4
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Other than Barnett, this is the first team I can say that I glad that we selected the ones we did. And as for Barnett, I am glad we picked Johnson, but I won't hate to have him on our defense with Sharper in the middle. If hindsight is 20/20. Should have traded picks last year also and moved up late into the first round to get a LB.
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Old 11-19-2004   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by V Man
Other than Barnett, this is the first team I can say that I glad that we selected the ones we did ....
I believe that there have been several teams where I like our picks, but remember, we only have 3 years of picks, not 4. Also remember that the 4th year means that the other teams have had an extra full year for their picks to emerge as contributors.

I would argue that our picks show that we've finally arrived (have a fair chance to compete, not just an expansion team), as long as our picks are comparable. Neither team will really know how it will end up for a few years.
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Old 11-20-2004   #6
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That is interesting. You ever get bored run up one of those for the Jag's, I would love to see it.
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