Reasons why this isn't a playoff year

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

Huh?

We've got the reigning Super Bowl champions in our division. I think it's always an uphill battle as long as Manning is at the top of his game. The best we can hope for is a backdoor wildcard, IMO.

He could get injured... He may not be the same with inexperience at LT. The already suspect defense took a lot of personnel hits. They lost depth at RB... Jacksonville and Tennessee are both in trouble this year, IMO...

certainly I wouldn't say we are likely to win the division, but if things fall right, I think we've got a shot... That kind of hope isn't something I've had the first 5 years.

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by spurstexanstros

ok you have heard why this isnt a playoff season and now it is my turn to tell you why they will make the playoffs and be a field goal away from the unimaginable. ( im not gonna say it but the candian bacon steve nash plays there hint hint)

1. They remind me of the minnesota vikings of the late 90's(98 i think) when they were a field goal from winning the conference. They had a dominate reciever that had a break out year. (as do we)

2. They had a perennial back up get his first chance to lead his own team (Brad Johnson)

3. A dominate defensive line that leasd the league in hurries, sacks and batted balls. ( our d-line has that potential)

They came out of nowhere to have a great year and so can we.

So should I list the 50 or so teams that have had the same aspirations over the last 10 years that didn't pull off the miracle. Since our defense hasn't finished in the top 10 in sacks hurries or batted balls since we've been in the league I'm a little hesitant to crown them just yet.

I mean ANYTHING is possible, but you talk about it like it is the most likely scenario.

That team you're speaking of, by the way... the Minn team had a young receiver who had a breakout year. You're right Moss had a big breakout year. But unlike this team they had a very solid 2nd or 1a reciver) Chris Carter and like it or not KW is no Chris Carter. They also had a 26 year old Robert Smith who ran the ball very effectively. They weren't lead by Brad Johnson (that was the year before) but rather by Randell Cunningham (not a career backup but a very capable vet). They also had 3 OL make the pro bowl.

One of the reasons they had so many sacks and hurries was they were able to pin their ears back and go after the QB. That's because their offense got them up big, early and often (I think they scored over 35 points in half their games that year).

Their head coach was in his 7th year as their coach and they had never finished worse than 8-8 under him. They won 9 games each of the previous years.

The only similarity between that team and this one would have to be they had a promising young DL and LB corps.

Originally Posted by spurstexanstros

ps remeber the Rams, the bucs, panthers, saints etc. Worst to first teams. the league is a league of parody. They are only one posession away from greatness

Yes I remember those teams.

The Rams are the closest to your argument. They however brought over a young (5th season in the league not going on his 10th) Marshall Faulk over. Their lines were both solid (that was the days of a young pace). They had a system that had been in place for two years and a receiving corps that included Bruce, Holt and Akeem (don't know if you remember him he was just an incredible burner).On defense they were better than average but it was again, mostly their offense that took over and kept the other team off the field.


If you're talking about Tampa they were the "dark horse" for years before they won the SB. They won on defense and were built more similar to the Texans than any other team you mentioned in my opinion. They did have a QB starting for his second year before they finally broke out, but they won with defense.

The Panthers... they have been just a crazy franchise to follow. They got hit had with injuries if I remember after Capers left. Then they went 7-9 after they brought in a new coach, and a vet QB, but they won with defense. They also won in a horrible division that year. The year you're most likely talking about is the one they went 11-5 in a mediocre division. (nobody over 8-8, and Atlanta was w/o Vick.

The Saints... in no way similar to our situation. They had injuries kill them the year before, got a healthy Deuce back (pro-bowl pre injury) and generally had more offensive weapons on their team than we've had in 5 years combined. That took pressure off the defense and allowed them to play much better because they could control the tempo of the game on offense.

Am I saying its impossible? Absolutely not. You forgot the Colts who went 3-13 and then took advantage of a soft schedule to go 13-3 the next year. We don't have that advantage either.

Our day will come. There will be a time when we are the favorite Dark horse, but we play in a division with the SB champs (who's offense will always make them tough to beat). Life ain't going to be easy. We also play in the AFC instead of the NFC.

Mike

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

He could get injured... He may not be the same with inexperience at LT. The already suspect defense took a lot of personnel hits. They lost depth at RB... Jacksonville and Tennessee are both in trouble this year, IMO...

certainly I wouldn't say we are likely to win the division, but if things fall right, I think we've got a shot... That kind of hope isn't something I've had the first 5 years.

Something tells me Manning won't be missing time. Dude played with a broken jaw. Their line has been so solid for so long all the way around. They rotate alot so Tarkik retiring shouldn't be that big of a deal.

I suppose we have a shot. Then again so does everyone. Raider's fans are talking SB right now.... lets not get that kind of rep.

Mike

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by TexanAddict

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texanmike
There is a reason that Green Bay let him go, and they are kind of in a win now mode since their franchise star is in his last year or two, but they are prepared to go into the season with, get this, Vernand Morency, listed as their #1 back right now.



I believe this to be a false statement.

Just checking up on some of my old posts.. trying to see how I think I did.. and I read this... not so much Texans related... I didn't mean however they were going to go 4-0 lol




Mike

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by Texanmike

Again, I'l apologize in advance... its long.. and may not appeal to anyone.. but this is how bad I'm jonsing for some football discussion:

Ok we see a bunch of guys picking 9-11 win seasons. I have been reading alot about this team and their acquisitions and it just doesn't add up. Sure Kubes tows the company line, and says he expects to make a push (actually earlier he wasn't saying that) and of course the Texans are going to try to sell tickets THIS year, which means they aren't going to come out and say "we're targeting 08/09 to make the playoffs"... but many of their actions point to this being a developmental year... one in which they don't expect to make the playoffs, but rather they expect to make improvements in personnel and the system.... not so much worrying about the win total.

Consider the holes we have left in this team...

1. SS, I know I know... we beat Manning for the first time. But do you really expect to beat them with our secondary? Talk up the D-line (I'll get to that in a minute) all you want... but this secondary is going to be, for the 3rd year running, awful. Other than DR.. I don't think anybody starting in our secondary would even be guaranteed a backup job on half the teams in the league. We've got a nickel and dime back (Faggins and Fletcher) and two guys who are horrible at deep zone coverage and providing safety help (Earl and Brown).. in a division where you have to face one of the top 5 qb's I've ever watched play with my own eyes; twice.
Don't think I was too far off on this one. Our entire secondary (except D-Rob) is atrocious. Faggins and Fletcher are what we thought they were. And its amazing how infrequently we hear the Safties talked about

2. OL, You made some nice additions... but I don't care what Kubes says... we're waiting to see what happens to Spencer. If this was a year in which we were aiming to make the playoffs.. we don't wait on Spencer. We go get ourselves a Tackle in the draft (prob trade down.. or pick one up later in the draft.) I like Black and all... and maybe I'm wrong... but it seems to me like we're waiting to see if Spencer pans out.
I think I was way wrong on this front. Our line, is for the first time in our history, better at pass blocking than run blocking. I definately didn't see this happening.

3. Wr, Instead of looking at an OT (I don't recall who was available in the 3rd round to be onest) we take a project WR. A guy who it would appear to me, if he is a long term solution, is at least a year or two away from winning. The best we can come up with are two guys who share a name with Andre, and I'm not really thinking the Andre and Andre show is really going to be much more exciting than the Andre Johnson show and Johnson and Johnson is already been done... we're sounds like a sponsor for the power puff league if you ask me. Walters... meh... maybe... but I'm pretty sure that no DC's are burning the midnight oil wondering how they are going to cover both AJ AND Kevin at the same time.
With the emergence of Davis... I think i was a little off on this front. Walter is pretty much what I thought he is. Too slow to play on the outside. He really needs to be a slot guy. He runs good routes and hangs onto the ball. If Johnson gets back... the Andre and Andre show may be worth watching. And if they are both that good, Walter is a good/very good slot reciever. I was apperantly at least right about Bethal.

4. RB, I know we brought in Green. But I still think he's a system guy. He's only guaranteed 6.5 mil, and we have to expect him to get hurt (again). I would bet he's here to teach the system... mentor the kids and show them how you prepare to win in this league. There is a reason that Green Bay let him go, and they are kind of in a win now mode since their franchise star is in his last year or two, but they are prepared to go into the season with, get this, Vernand Morency, listed as their #1 back right now.
I am going to go ahead and call this one for myself. Granted it was pretty much a no brainer.. ok so really you don't have to give me credit for this

5. DL: Its the cool thing to talk about Amobe like he's going to make a difference this year... and he might... but you brought this kid in for the future. There were several players who could make an immediate impact this year at either the WR/DB/RB position THIS year. Don't get me a wrong... I'm a fan of building from the inside out... and I think that we've finally got a direction and a legit plan... But he's going to spend this year learning how the big boys play. He, like most of this team... is going to look brilliant at times... and others he's going to look like we have two Courtney Browns on this team. He was brought in to DEVELOP with MW... no to register a combined 25 sacks this year. If we were trying to make a playoff push this year I don't think we'd be relying on Amobe.
I think I was right. I just think Amobe is better than we anticipated. I don't think we expected him to be having the effect he's had this year. But I'll take the knock from those wanting to blast me for it.

6. LB: There were a few in the draft.. and several in free agency and two or 3 legit 1st or 2nd stringers on our roster. Ryans is NICE.. and he's SMART... but he doesn't run a 2.4 40... which means he can't cover the entire field... We're weak at either OLB position and outside of him and Greenwood... we don't have a guy who has had over 80 tackles in the last 3 years (edit Danny Clark has... forgot about him... but last year with the Raiders, in 16 games he turned in a whopping 29 tackles).
I think I was right on here. We don't have enough speed, and we've had a few mistakes made by the LBs. Over all their play is above average because we have a stud in the middle.

Other things I think point to an 08/09 run for the playoffs:

1. Matt Schaub:

1st year starter, 1st year in this system (I know he has played in a similar system since his H.S. days but still a new system). He will be good. He might be great... but not this year. Its a move in another direction.. and I've said it before... our first 6 games would have been more smooth if we kept DC and let him take a pounding while Schaub gets his bearings.
Schaub has definately had a little to learn. He's thrown basically the same interception 3 times this year. That said he is learning, and he's playing better than I thought through 4 weeks.


We have added ALOT of young guys... via draft and signings... and the guys we've added that are vets... like Zgonina and Wynn... etc are either on the downside of their carer or they are in the league because they are smart... and clipboard type guys. We didn't go add a big performer in my opinion... we added depth... and we added vets to teach these young guys we do have how to play. (anybody notice a change in DR's play once we lost Glenn?). Again I think these are great moves.... among the many mistakes made in handling HWWDNSO and many of our other young players... was that they didn't really have guys to mentor them. Tony Banks? please... Sharper wasn't the same player when he left... but our defense fell apart when he and Glenn were gone.... in part, I think because there was noone to teach these kids how to prepare.
I was close here too. Wynn hasn't been playing much... and you know we didn't anticipate him returning kicks, not with Mathis/Jones on the roster... he's mentoring if you ask me. Same with Zgonina. WE ARE WAITING TILL WE HAVE MONEY if you ask me....

We had to know we were getting Schaub... or at least we weren't going to go for Carr again... that was pretty much written in stone... but we released Moulds? I know he hasn't gotten many phone calls... but I'm pretty sure he gets one before any of the other WR's not named Andre Johnson on our roster. Again... you probably have to find out if Walters is the answer... I'm not sold... but then again I'm not even paid to write my opinion even on a website or a newspaper... much less to make personnel decisions... so I could be completely wrong... this is just the vibe I get from the way the off season is going...

Bash away...

Mike

Overalll I was in the ball park... just not right on... nobody really needs to comment.. its just this is the first time I've had significant time to talk texans and there aren't many people on. Since I'm not at home I don't have all of my tools I use for stats analysis. The team is definately beter than I thought they would be... I still don't think we're a playoff team though. And the injury to Green set us back quite a few steps.

Mike

[Kaiser Toro]

Whew! I am so glad to be reminded this is not a playoff year again.

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by Kaiser Toro

Whew! I am so glad to be reminded this is not a playoff year again.

LOL. That wasn't the point.. I was off on quite a few aspects.. and like I said.. its you and me reading right now.. this is the most active I've been in over a month... so I figured I'd go see how I was doing.

Oh... but, it isn't.

Mike

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by Texanmike

LOL. That wasn't the point.. I was off on quite a few aspects.. and like I said.. its you and me reading right now.. this is the most active I've been in over a month... so I figured I'd go see how I was doing.

Oh... but, it isn't.

Mike

I thought like you did before training camp. Once I went to the practice and saw the team as a group, I was impressed by the changes in attitude. I admit I drank the tea and wore the Battle Red Glasses.

After four weeks, I see a team that is still one year away with regards to the getting better than average front line talent at all starting positions. That said, if we can stop the injury bug, and get every one back, this is a solid team. Much more solid than I would have predicted in May.

I still think the team will be playing meaningful games in December, and will finish with it's first winning record. But we are another successful draft away from being one of the teams expecting to win every week by the talking heads on TV.

[Kaiser Toro]

Originally Posted by Texanmike

LOL. That wasn't the point.. I was off on quite a few aspects.. and like I said.. its you and me reading right now.. this is the most active I've been in over a month... so I figured I'd go see how I was doing.

Oh... but, it isn't.

Mike

You are Debbie Downer. There are only five teams in the conference that have a better winning percentage. I cannot wait until we really start piling on the losses to prove to everyone this is not a playoff team.

I have never been around folks that want to throw in the towel so willingly and triumphantly.

Houston is officially the towel thrower capital of the world.