Reasons why this isn't a playoff year

[ReliantTexan]

You people are forgetting that we were a top 12 defense(in yardage allowed) the last thirteen games of the season and we've only gotten better IMO.I imagine our defense will win most of our games this season.I don't expect Schaub to light it up his first season of starting but he just needs to be better than Carr(which shouldn't be to hard).Don't get me wrong,I think Schaub will be a Great QB,but just not his first season.And this year I think we will be able to run the ball( I look for Chris Taylor to have a break-out year) and be the starter by next season.All in all I expect 9 wins and the playoffs.

[brakos82]

We would-a been in the playoffs at 7-9 in '04 in the NFC.

[Speedy]

The line between winning and losing in the NFL is so thin that anything can happen. For example, the Texans just last year were a handful of plays from winning 10 games. Stop just one of the 80 yard TD's against the Bills, the Texans win that game. If Carr and Cook don't fumble away the first Titans game, and Cook doesn't blow another one against the Giants, there's 2 more. Make a play or two in the OT loss to the Titans, and you're looking at a 10-6 wild card contender.

Of course that works the other way as well. The Dolphins, Colts, Jags, and Browns make a couple of more plays, or the Texans don't make the plays they did i.e. Mario disrupting the 2 pointer against Miami, and maybe you're looking at another 2 win season.

But the point is, that's how close it is in this league. I mean the Super Bowl champions lost to the Texans and before that game was played, on paper, that's an automatic Colts win. And the Colts did have something to play for in that game. That's why you play the games.

Maybe switching QB's, adding Green, Okoye, a healthy Mario, maybe they make those 6-8 plays this year that wins those extra 4 games or so. You're just not going to know until they lineup and play the game, no matter what it looks like on paper before hand.

So to me, making the playoffs this year is very realistic and not just a glass full ridiculous homer expectation. But I also realize that if they don't find a way to make those 2 or 3 plays a game, they could end up below .500 again.

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by Pantherstang84

You go ahead and stare at your empty glass. However, I believe some key positions were upgraded in the offseason and I just don't see this team going backwards. Now if there were no roster changes, I would think like you.

The Texans got rid of the biggest liability back in April. They will win more games this year. No less than 9.

I have been on board going on my 6th season and if I'm still above ground, I'll be around for the 7th.

I could be on the "safe side" and only expect 5 wins so I don't get my hopes up.
Pffffffffffttt!

Winning season, playoff bound in 2007!!!!!!!

You don't have to like it but I'm saying it and I don't tolerate the Capers "marginal improvement" philosophy or a losing attitude.


I'm pretty sure the current coaching staff share that sentiment too.

5-7 wins??? Bahhhhhhh! Patooey!

So shall we put a wager on this? over under of 8.5? you take the over I take the under?

And for the record... I'm not taking a glass half empty approach just so I'm not disappointed... I'm looking at the situation objectively and calling it how I see it. Yes we have upgraded certain positions... but we still have gaping holes and we don't do anything exceptionally well... It has nothing to do with marginal improvement or a "losing attitude"... well maybe it does... we have a losing culture here... that has to be changed. But unfortunately that's not changed just by closing your eyes and saying "I know I can I know I can..." you have to make tangible changes in your team. You also have to clear cap space so you can bring in help... we're doing that this year. This team isn't going backwards.. they are moving forward. Not only are they moving forward... they're doing it at a remarkable pace... Think about what you're saying... this team is one of the 6 best in the conference? Give me a break...

Mike

[Texan Asylum]

Originally Posted by DBCooper

Schaub - upgrade
Green - upgrade
Okoye - upgrade (from what I can tell)
Oline - Black is good depth
LB - Barber and Clark add good depth
WR - Jacoby and Johnson add depth


We may not have all the shiny pieces yet, but we're building a solid roster.

This team got better this off-season.

And you'll see it on Sundays.

Nice...

I AM looking forward to GAMEDAY!!!

[Pantherstang84]

Originally Posted by Texanmike

So shall we put a wager on this? over under of 8.5? you take the over I take the under?

And for the record... I'm not taking a glass half empty approach just so I'm not disappointed... I'm looking at the situation objectively and calling it how I see it. Yes we have upgraded certain positions... but we still have gaping holes and we don't do anything exceptionally well... It has nothing to do with marginal improvement or a "losing attitude"... well maybe it does... we have a losing culture here... that has to be changed. But unfortunately that's not changed just by closing your eyes and saying "I know I can I know I can..." you have to make tangible changes in your team. You also have to clear cap space so you can bring in help... we're doing that this year. This team isn't going backwards.. they are moving forward. Not only are they moving forward... they're doing it at a remarkable pace... Think about what you're saying... this team is one of the 6 best in the conference? Give me a break...

Mike

1. I'm a recovering compulsive gambler so I don't do it anymore.

2. A losing mentality gets changed by thinking like a winner. You don't win first and then develop a winning attitude.

3. The Houston Texans could very well be one of the 6 best teams in the AFC. Who knows? Not one team in the NFL has played a down in 2007 yet. So it is premature to deem the Texans a failure in 2007.

4. I'll repeat myself again. The Houston Texans will finish no worse than 9-7 in 2007. Sometimes that is enough to make it to the playoffs, most of the time it isn't. We'll see.

5. The Texans upgraded the offensive line when they changed QBs. The offense will be much improved and score more points per game.

6. I'm done arguing with you. I don't want any of your bad JuJu.

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by Pantherstang84

1. I'm a recovering compulsive gambler so I don't do it anymore.

2. A losing mentality gets changed by thinking like a winner. You don't win first and then develop a winning attitude.

3. The Houston Texans could very well be one of the 6 best teams in the AFC. Who knows? Not one team in the NFL has played a down in 2007 yet. So it is premature to deem the Texans a failure in 2007.

4. I'll repeat myself again. The Houston Texans will finish no worse than 9-7 in 2007. Sometimes that is enough to make it to the playoffs, most of the time it isn't. We'll see.

5. The Texans upgraded the offensive line when they changed QBs. The offense will be much improved and score more points per game.

6. I'm done arguing with you. I don't want any of your bad JuJu.

It doesn't have to be money man... I'm thinking like a sig block for a year or something... you know... just to make it interesting... and lets not forget we are both on the same side here.. we're both Texans fans after all..

Mike

[rickyb]

Originally Posted by Pantherstang84

2. A losing mentality gets changed by thinking like a winner. You don't win first and then develop a winning attitude.

I wholeheartedly agree on this point. I've recently been posting about placing high expectations on players (e.g., Okoye) and challenge them to rise to/exceed the bar. It's a management thing. Winners will rise to the level of expectations placed upon them. Set the bar too level, and you celebrate mediocrity, which is no way to grow.

just what is on my mind this a.m. is it september yet?

[HJam72]

I think we're going to get that winning attitude this year, for the first time. I think it kind of peaked in and looked around a little last year, because I think it will come in the form of Schaub and Ryans.

However, I still think we may be looking at 8-8 (but no lower, unless we just have a lot of bad luck), so I guess it depends on how much winning attitude you need to actually call it that.

PS-AJ, for example, is a stellar performer and a work-horse, but he could actually use a leader on the field. A vocal, social leader. Schaub. Ryans just needs to lose that rookie ora, and I doubt it takes him long to do that.

[Spike]

Great thread. I can't wait for football season and this is the point of the Summer when I finally allow myself to get excited about football.

I have been satisfied with what the Texans accomplished in the off-season and am hoping for an 8-8 season. At the same time, I am preparing myself for the frustrating possibility of having a more talented team, with no improved record. I have been using the same logic that a lot of you have expressed here...we won 6 games last year with essentially no QB and were a couple of plays away from ending at .500. However, I am not sure that logic works in the context of a football team from one season to the next.

[Pantherstang84]

Originally Posted by Spike

Great thread. I can't wait for football season and this is the point of the Summer when I finally allow myself to get excited about football.

I have been satisfied with what the Texans accomplished in the off-season and am hoping for an 8-8 season. At the same time, I am preparing myself for the frustrating possibility of having a more talented team, with no improved record. I have been using the same logic that a lot of you have expressed here...we won 6 games last year with essentially no QB and were a couple of plays away from ending at .500. However, I am not sure that logic works in the context of a football team from one season to the next.

It works.

I submit as exhibit 1...

The 2006 New Orleans Aints

Out goes Arron Brooks. In comes Drew Brees.

They hired a rookie coach and swapped an incompetent QB for a competent one. Voila.

12-4.


I don't expect the same this year from the Texans, but no worse than 9-7. I'm telling ya.

Prediction...
9-11 wins.

[Texans Horror]

I think beating the Colts last year did a lot for the Texans mentality - but still not as much as bringing in the new coaching staff. I really like Kubes and I think this will not be a one-hit wonder team. When they finally do hit, they will be around for a long time. Not like some teams that are scattershot - good one year, bad the next.

However, I've never gone for that shoulda, coulda, woulda stuff. Sure, a couple plays go Houston's way, and the Texans have a few more wins. Sure, if you look at part of the season on defense or offense, they looked really good. Plenty to build on, but the end result is the Texans are in the AFC basement because of failures from the past regime. Speaking of, go back to 2005's 2-14 season. Shoulda, coulda, woulda: the Texans were two OTs and a couple bad kicks away from a 6-10 or 7-9 season, possibly enough to have bought Capers another year, and by God I'm glad it didn't work out that way! I'll take the Texans the way they are, work in progress and all, because there is a light at the end of the tunnel, even if it is another season or two away.

[maddogmrb]

Nobody is jumping ship and, believe me, nobody wants this team to be a winner more than me ......... just taking a realistic look at our chances this year.

We didn't add a SINGLE solid starter at ANY position in the off season. Some will say Ahman Green but, he is on the down side of his career.

Take our starters from top to bottom and see how many would be starters on at least half the teams in the NFL. Answer is: not very many = probably less than 500 record. Oh yes, and add our coaching staff to that stat, too. Now they can get better but, right now they are not considered in the top half of the league.

And, how many GM's in the league would trade our "no-name" roster for the Patriots "no-name" roster. Uhh, umm, I don't hear anything....

Do I want our team to win ........ absolutely! Will I be cheering them in every game ......... absolutely! Do I feel they are in the top half of the league ........ no way. Does that make me a loser fan? I don't think so ........ just frustrated & with reasonable expectations. Where will your unbridled enthusiasm be at mid season when we are 2-6 or 3-5? I'll still be cheering the team on and looking for that improvement to base my optimism on for the next season because my expectations are reasonable.

We can't take the Pittsburg Pirates and "enthuse" them to the World Series. We can't take the Oakland Raiders and "enthuse" them to the Super Bowl this year. We can't take the Rice Owls and "enthuse" them to the national championship (football). But, we can be loyal fans with reasonable expectations and that doesn't make us losers.

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by maddogmrb

We can't take the Pittsburg Pirates and "enthuse" them to the World Series. We can't take the Oakland Raiders and "enthuse" them to the Super Bowl this year. We can't take the Rice Owls and "enthuse" them to the national championship (football). But, we can be loyal fans with reasonable expectations and that doesn't make us losers.

Very well said.

Mike

[Speedy]

Originally Posted by Texans Horror

However, I've never gone for that shoulda, coulda, woulda stuff. Sure, a couple plays go Houston's way, and the Texans have a few more wins. Sure, if you look at part of the season on defense or offense, they looked really good. Plenty to build on, but the end result is the Texans are in the AFC basement because of failures from the past regime. Speaking of, go back to 2005's 2-14 season. Shoulda, coulda, woulda: the Texans were two OTs and a couple bad kicks away from a 6-10 or 7-9 season, possibly enough to have bought Capers another year, and by God I'm glad it didn't work out that way! I'll take the Texans the way they are, work in progress and all, because there is a light at the end of the tunnel, even if it is another season or two away.

My point was just to demonstrate the fine line between winning and losing in this league. Yes, you've still got to make those plays and the Texans didn't and therefore have never had a winning record. I don't play the woulda, coulda, shoulda game either. You did what you did and that's who you are.

The talent on this team is better than what the previous regime left us with. And even with that lesser talent, you were that few amount of plays away from winning 6 games instead of 2 in '05 and 10 games instead of 6 in '06. Now, this new, better talent pool that Kubiak and co. are putting together, still has to go out and make those plays that weren't being made in the past. If they can, you could very easily be looking at .500 or better. If they don't, you're looking to struggle...again. That's how close things are in this league.

[Texans Horror]

Agreed. But I think it's going to take a big leap from rookies and a wink to the gods for the Texans to cross that fine line.

Another reason the Texans won't make the play-offs: November and December. While the schedule is much kinder this season, the Texans will have a rough November and December. I could see them not winning between their bye-week and the final Jags game. Momentum from the first 7-8 games will be very important. I could see them 5-3 or 4-4 in the first half of the season.

[brakos82]

Originally Posted by Texans Horror

Agreed. But I think it's going to take a big leap from rookies and a wink to the gods for the Texans to cross that fine line.

Another reason the Texans won't make the play-offs: November and December. While the schedule is much kinder this season, the Texans will have a rough November and December. I could see them not winning between their bye-week and the final Jags game. Momentum from the first 7-8 games will be very important. I could see them 5-3 or 4-4 in the first half of the season.

I'm hoping for 6-3 so we could end up on SNF

[Double Barrel]

ANY GIVEN SUNDAY, BABY!!!

[TK_Gamer]

I'm gonna just say I too think we have holes, every team does. One thing that makes me "REALLY" optimistic is the holes in my oppinion are related.

Secondary: yes we have less than stellar talent in the secondary, but we also had the worst turnover, worst sack toatal around. So what contributed to that?
1) gimped Mario Williams (reportedly fully recovered)
2) inconsistent push in the middle (Maddox showed he had
the "stuff" late in the season. We added the Okoye factor)
3) we kinda "vanillafied" the defense with everyone learning a new
system (2nd year of the system and only one probable starting
rookie.)
In my oppinon we will see the defense play more toward their level at the end of last season rather than the painfull start.

Offense:

QB: Schaub is an improvement over Carr no matter what anyone says. Leadership, poise, release. I really think just those skills alone will make the other non-AJ targets look alot better.

RB: can anyone honestly tell me Green is NOT an upgrade over Dayne/committee? we will still use different backs for different things and sometimes just to keep Green fresh, but I dont see us with less than 1500 yards total rushing.

O-line:

I think everyone will agree that even without Spencer, they looked respectable at the end of the season last year, and with added depth we picked up this year, and a possible return of Spencer I dont think they will even be in the top 10 in sacks allowed this year.

Overall: I honestly think 9 wins is realistic goal, and 11 wins are possible barring serious injury problems. I'm sorry if that's too optimistic for some, but their you have it. My Honest Oppinion. GO TEXANS!

[badboy]

Originally Posted by aj.

Here's the naysayers view.

First, let me say that I enjoyed your earlier post - it was very well thought out and very well presented. I didn't agree with everything you said but that's not the point .... I also didn't give you rep - intentionally. I have respect for many posters here but I don't need a status icon (the little green thingys next to your name by the "rep power" label) to let me know who has their sheet together. In fact, I just read something written by a person on another thread who had a rep of 1 or 2 that was far more insightful than what the rep power of 20-something guy had to say.

Anyway, I find the rep system here very odd - especially in what's mostly an adult environment. I used to throw it around occasionally (rarely) just to play along, but it's been a long time since I've used it. It's almost like kids' myspace pages where being on someone else's top ten list is soo important ... not really, but the feel is that of a popularity contest that I don't think adds a whole lot to the environment other than promote a form of virtual user status and heirarchy for whatever reason.

One of the things I like about hpf.com and ht.com is they don't use rep icons. I think it brings a jr. highish element to this board and if there was a way for me to hide the "Rep Power" label under my name, I would.

(I expect and invite negative rep on this post btw)

I also choose not to "rep" If I disagree or agree I simply say so and maybe follow up with PM if needed.