Record Prediction 2007

[threetoedpete]

Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck

I look at it this way, we got 6 wins last year with:
1. A very bad QB
2. Inconsistent RB play.
3. Less talent on the o-line than we have this year.
4. Less talent in the secondary than we have this year.
5. Less talent in the LB crew than we have this year.
6. A defense that averaged less than 290 ypg allowed over the last 13 games.
7. A crappy offense.
8. Below average special teams.
9. A lot of injuries.

So, for me 8 wins seems within reach because we don't have to have ALL those if's go our way. If we have 1 or 2 things go our way, we can win 8. To win 8 games, we do not have to field a team without weaknesses.

Yes pencil neck the glass could be half full. And Toro you're correct too. If they don't lose anyone to the injury bug....all those little ifs...try this: in first quarter, Vonta Leech goes down with a twisted ankle. Pitts Blows out a knee . The o-line suddenly goes into kaos for the fourth seaon in a row. The prospectus of a rushing attack is as shaky as Leech's ankle. One thingy I've learned over the years, just about the time you get one injury sorted out, you get another one in the worst possible, the most unlikly position. I'm not saying it will happen. But yeah they gotta get awefully lucky with the injuries, especailly with the number of thirty somethings on the rooster to make a lagitamte play off contender run. They go three and three with in the division, I'll be a happy man. Anything beyond that is gravy with this roster.

[brakos82]

Originally Posted by threetoedpete

Yes pencil neck the glass could be half full. And Toro you're correct too. If they don't lose anyone to the injury bug....all those little ifs...try this: in first quarter, Vonta Leech goes down with a twisted ankle. Pitts Blows out a knee . The o-line suddenly goes into kaos for the fourth seaon in a row. The prospectus of a rushing attack is as shaky as Leech's ankle. One thingy I've learned over the years, just about the time you get one injury sorted out, you get another one in the worst possible, the most unlikly position. I'm not saying it will happen. But yeah they gotta get awefully lucky with the injuries, especailly with the number of thirty somethings on the rooster to make a lagitamte play off contender run. They go three and three with in the division, I'll be a happy man. Anything beyond that is gravy with this roster.

Are you sure you can spell?

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by brakos82

Are you sure you can spell?

Hay, hi mae knot bee albe too spel... butt hi kan reeson prety gud.

Myke

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by maddogmrb

Andre Johnson & Demeco Ryans and that's it. I believe we will be improved this year but, I doubt we will win more than 7 or 8 games even if alot of my "ifs" come thru for us.

While those players may be at the top 1/3 of the league... we don't actually DO anything better than 2/3 of the league. I mean you can't do AJ or DR.. well actually... if you're doing either of them and reading this... what the hell is wrong with you... Seriously if you are doing either of them and reading this let me know I'd love to get you to ask them some questions on my behalf or at least an autograph lol


Mike.

[brakos82]

Originally Posted by Texanmike

Hay, hi mae knot bee albe too spel... butt hi kan reeson prety gud.

Myke

Your reasoning is great, I can't fault you for that.

[brakos82]

This poll's results mirror the ones I saw on the main page a couple weeks ago: 8-8 and 9-7 about even.

[bayshorebevo]

9-7. I am so sick of hearing new team, rebuilding, etc., I could throw up (I just did and those were new shoes). If the team is not looking towards the playoffs, why play? Don't bother apologists, I already know what you are going to say.

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by bayshorebevo

9-7. I am so sick of hearing new team, rebuilding, etc., I could throw up (I just did and those were new shoes). If the team is not looking towards the playoffs, why play? Don't bother apologists, I already know what you are going to say.

How can I be an apologist? I don't get it. By that logic why don't you take it a step farther. Are you willing to say we are going to win the Super bowl this year? I mean if that's not your ultimate goal then why do you play? Need I remind you Lebron hasn't won a super bowl?

I see people talking about 9 wins but have found very few people who can give any more evidence than "any given sunday" type answers.

Mike

[bayshorebevo]

What kind of "evidence" are you talking about for game(s) that haven't been played yet? We do not know how teams will play this year. That is why preseason rankings are complete crap. Every year there are teams that everybody expects to stink do well. Why would it be possible for them to win and not us. Are you saying it is okay to mail the season in? And as far as you being an apologist, it was a general comment directed against the rhetoric, not you. I have never heard of you before.

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by Texanmike

How can I be an apologist? I don't get it. By that logic why don't you take it a step farther. Are you willing to say we are going to win the Super bowl this year? I mean if that's not your ultimate goal then why do you play? Need I remind you Lebron hasn't won a super bowl?

I see people talking about 9 wins but have found very few people who can give any more evidence than "any given sunday" type answers.

It all comes down to whether you like the moves made in the offseason or not. I think we've made significant improvements in our team.

I think we've made a major improvement at the QB position. I don't have any "proof" of that but I don't believe it's possible to get much worse play than what we had last year.

I think we've made moves to improve our defensive line, our linebacking corp, and our secondary. I would have liked to have seen a ball-hawking free safety picked up but I think we're stronger and deeper across the entire defense than we were last year. I also think we're going to be better coached. And with all that said, although our defense didn't generate a lot of turnovers, it was not a bad unit last year for yards allowed after the first three games of the season.

We've got a better, more experienced, and healthier group of running backs than we had this time last year. I don't know if Green will be able to be healthy for the entire season or if he'll live up to his pro-bowl history, but I really expect him to contribute more than Domanick did last year. So I expect more production from the running game.

Last year, it didn't matter much who our receivers were past #1. Our QB wasn't going to find them. I think MS will. People talk about us not having a #2 but this unit does have some potential. I think the group, as a unit, is going to be more productive than last year if only because of the change at QB. And that's not bringing up the fact that our TE corp is really good and really underrated. DC stopped looking for Owen after Owen got hurt mid-season but Owen was still getting open when he came back at the end of the year.

And that all comes back around to our offensive line. The unit had a lot of injuries last year and still performed much better than it had the year before. It seems to me that Kubiak is going with the approach that the unit just needs to work together more in order to gell and didn't make the wholesale changes a lot of people here (and in the media) wanted and expected. He obviously thinks that this squad isn't as bad as some people think they are. Either that, or he's expecting a lot from some lower round rookies.

So, for me, I saw a team last year that wasn't very good that showed a lot of heart and won some games we should have lost and lost some games we should have won. But we ended up winning 6. With the improvements we've made, I think we'll do better. Some people look at our schedule and think that it's going to be difficult to get more than 6 wins but I think they're over-rating some teams. (I expect LJ to have a bad, bad year this year.) That's why I think we're going to win 8.

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by bayshorebevo

What kind of "evidence" are you talking about for game(s) that haven't been played yet? We do not know how teams will play this year. That is why preseason rankings are complete crap. Every year there are teams that everybody expects to stink do well. Why would it be possible for them to win and not us. Are you saying it is okay to mail the season in? And as far as you being an apologist, it was a general comment directed against the rhetoric, not you. I have never heard of you before.

What I'm talking about when I say evidence, is some sign other than just "we improved at this position". The most common logic for picking us to do 9-7 seems to be "well we were horrible last year and we managed to win 6 games, we're better this year so we should win more games". I'm about to start a different thread focusing on each aspect of the game... just basically a pole which asks where you think the team will be in each aspect of the game. When I look at the Texans, I see a team which isn't going to be in the top 1/3 of the league in any fundamental aspect of the game, but will finish in the bottom 1/3 of the league in a few aspects. I just don't know how that translates to 9 wins. I realize we have a few players (Ryans/AJ) who are borderline top 5 players at their position, but that doesn't mean that as a team we do anything extremely well.

Mike

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by Texanmike

What I'm talking about when I say evidence, is some sign other than just "we improved at this position". The most common logic for picking us to do 9-7 seems to be "well we were horrible last year and we managed to win 6 games, we're better this year so we should win more games". I'm about to start a different thread focusing on each aspect of the game... just basically a pole which asks where you think the team will be in each aspect of the game. When I look at the Texans, I see a team which isn't going to be in the top 1/3 of the league in any fundamental aspect of the game, but will finish in the bottom 1/3 of the league in a few aspects. I just don't know how that translates to 9 wins. I realize we have a few players (Ryans/AJ) who are borderline top 5 players at their position, but that doesn't mean that as a team we do anything extremely well.

Mike

I think I disagree with your basic premise here*.

The Seahawks and Jets didn't finish in the top 3rd in any major category last year and made it to the playoffs. There were several teams that did finish in the top 3rd in major categories that DIDN'T make it to the playoffs. The Titans and Jags both finished in the top 3rd in Rushing and see where that got them. The Ravens only finished in the top third in Rushing D. The Steelers didn't make it into the playoffs even though they finished in the top 3rd of the league in SEVERAL categories.

So I think your idea that you have to finish at the top in several categories in order to make it to the playoffs is wrong.

If the Texans play D like we did the last 13 games of the season last year (or better), then we will be in the top 3rd of the league in defense. I think our O will at least be in the top half of the league. But I know from looking at the stats that you can get to 8-8 with or without doing that.


* When I'm looking at "major" categories, I'm looking at yardage and yardage only. I'm looking at Rushing/Passing/Total yards for Offense and Defense.

[HJam72]

Technically, you don't have to be in the top third of anything to be an 8-8 team. You just have to be mediocre at everything.

I think one of the naysayers is right about one thing: Leach goes down, and about half of our running game goes with him; but, that's the NFL.

[Kaiser Toro]

70% of folks think we will win 8 to 9 games.

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck

I think I disagree with your basic premise here*.

The Seahawks and Jets didn't finish in the top 3rd in any major category last year and made it to the playoffs. There were several teams that did finish in the top 3rd in major categories that DIDN'T make it to the playoffs. The Titans and Jags both finished in the top 3rd in Rushing and see where that got them. The Ravens only finished in the top third in Rushing D. The Steelers didn't make it into the playoffs even though they finished in the top 3rd of the league in SEVERAL categories.

So I think your idea that you have to finish at the top in several categories in order to make it to the playoffs is wrong.

If the Texans play D like we did the last 13 games of the season last year (or better), then we will be in the top 3rd of the league in defense. I think our O will at least be in the top half of the league. But I know from looking at the stats that you can get to 8-8 with or without doing that.


* When I'm looking at "major" categories, I'm looking at yardage and yardage only. I'm looking at Rushing/Passing/Total yards for Offense and Defense.

I'm not saying that you have to finish in the top 1/3 in several categories to be an 8-8 team. I'm saying if you do several things woefully - Passblock, run routes, safety help, coverage, run support from LBs... you have to do some things better than average if you want to be an 8-8 team. You can't be horrible at multiple things and still expect to make the playoffs or even finish at .500. Sure it CAN happen. A few years back the Browns made the playoffs with a horrible offense and a generally average or below average defense. It CAN happen. But you shouldn't EXPECT it to happen. If you could then owners wouldn't be shelling out the kind of money they do for top talent and teams like the Raiders and Browns wouldn't make any moves they would just wait for the "group to come together." My example would be Indy. They were horrible at run defense while Bathea was out last year. But they were a very good at running the ball. That allowed them to maintain a decent TOP ratio. If you expect to win regularly in this league you have to have a way to hide your deficiencies. The Texans just won't be able to hide enough of their deficiencies this year in my opinion. Even when you list the things they do well.... run the ball... they aren't in the top 10 teams in the NFL. When you talk about things they do poorly though, they are in the bottom 5 of the league and there are more things they do poorly than they do well. I do however think that by the end of the year this team will be an 8-8 quality team. I just think that we will start the year badly and with our schedule (although if Vick doesn't play for Atlanta I may have to move my prediction up to 7 wins) that things don't look like an 8 win season to me.

Mike
Mike

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by HJam72

Technically, you don't have to be in the top third of anything to be an 8-8 team. You just have to be mediocre at everything.

I think one of the naysayers is right about one thing: Leach goes down, and about half of our running game goes with him; but, that's the NFL.

Problem:

We're not mediocre at everything... we're horrible at several things which means you need to be above average in a few things or you won't go 8-8.

Mike

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by HJam72

Technically, you don't have to be in the top third of anything to be an 8-8 team. You just have to be mediocre at everything.

Well, the Jets finished 10-6 without finishing in the top 3rd of the league in anything.

And if you finish 8-8, then you're in the running for a playoff spot. An 8-8 team usually makes it in.

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by Texanmike

I'm not saying that you have to finish in the top 1/3 in several categories to be an 8-8 team. I'm saying if you do several things woefully - Passblock, run routes, safety help, coverage, run support from LBs... you have to do some things better than average if you want to be an 8-8 team. You can't be horrible at multiple things and still expect to make the playoffs or even finish at .500. Sure it CAN happen. A few years back the Browns made the playoffs with a horrible offense and a generally average or below average defense. It CAN happen. But you shouldn't EXPECT it to happen. If you could then owners wouldn't be shelling out the kind of money they do for top talent and teams like the Raiders and Browns wouldn't make any moves they would just wait for the "group to come together." My example would be Indy. They were horrible at run defense while Bathea was out last year. But they were a very good at running the ball. That allowed them to maintain a decent TOP ratio. If you expect to win regularly in this league you have to have a way to hide your deficiencies. The Texans just won't be able to hide enough of their deficiencies this year in my opinion. Even when you list the things they do well.... run the ball... they aren't in the top 10 teams in the NFL. When you talk about things they do poorly though, they are in the bottom 5 of the league and there are more things they do poorly than they do well. I do however think that by the end of the year this team will be an 8-8 quality team. I just think that we will start the year badly and with our schedule (although if Vick doesn't play for Atlanta I may have to move my prediction up to 7 wins) that things don't look like an 8 win season to me.

It comes back around to you thinking that they're as bad as last year and me thinking that they're better.

You're using last year's statistics to try to discuss what's going to happen this coming season. You keep saying "they ARE this" and "they ARE that" but in truth, no one knows what they are. We're not going to know until they play. You're essentially saying that we finished in the bottom third in most categories last year and because of that we're going to be a 6-10 team THIS year. You are essentially saying that we are the same team we were last year.

I'm not going to be surprised if we finish in the top 10 in rushing defense and overall defense. I'm not going to be surprised if we finish in the top 10 in total offense, either.

Additionally, I bet that you can find teams every year that didn't finish high in very many categories that made it to the playoffs. A lot of teams that finish high in certain categories are lopsided and unbalanced. Last year, 5 of the top 10 offenses didn't make the playoffs and 6 of the top 10 defenses didn't make the playoffs. (Although, this is interesting, if you take the average of the total offense and total defense and sort the teams by that, 8 of the top 10 made the playoffs. Only the Steelers and Jags missed by that standard. The Jets finished in the bottom 10. Seahawks missed that by one)

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by Texanmike

Problem:

We're not mediocre at everything... we're horrible at several things which means you need to be above average in a few things or you won't go 8-8.

Mike

No, no. We WERE horrible at several things and even then, we weren't as horrible as the final statistics show.

Cut out the first three games last year. Those first three games were horrendous and do not truly illustrate how our D played or what our D is capable of. If you remove those three games, get the average yards per game, and then apply that to a 16 game season, we would have given up 2833 yards per game passing. That would have put us 3rd. If you do the same with our rushing defense, we would have given up 1805 yards. That would have put us 12th. Our overall defense would have finished up 5th.

So you can look at last year's stats and say that we were horrible, but is that assessment accurate? I don't think so. You do.

[threetoedpete]

Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck

Well, the Jets finished 10-6 without finishing in the top 3rd of the league in anything.

Yes and the Jets had a very farvorable schedule last season. Won a few early and got the young guys believing. They also had a Vet QB. If you got a pretty low opinion of the NFC south I suppose you could throw up 10-6. Mike has summed it up pretty well up there. It's not just the little if's. It's the shear number of them. But you guys wanna whip yourselves up be my guess. All things are possible....IF....they get out of the gate 3-0. Might get a Lawerance Taylor/Harry Carson season out of Greenwood and Orr or one of the new guys . Black/Winston/Frye might be enough warm bodies at OLT. And Whomever at free saftey might play the season of their life. Catch a Criss Dishman like month and we win a few we weren't supposed to win. The ball club go injury free. I'm just saying there are quite a few "things" that have to go correctly for this club to be play off contenders. Kubiak said one himself not long ago...cut the sacks down by twenty. Go from the forties to the twenties with this group ? Uh huh, now tell me another one. Just one more little if. All of these thing are possible, not probable. I'm not being mean. I'm being objective. I know what this board is going to look like in October when some of these lofty expectations aren't met.

It's not they are esentially the same team as they were last year PN. It's that they didn't have enough cap room or draft picks to shoe away all those pesty "ifs". They have far too many journeyman starting in key positions to make a serious play off run this season. If Kubes and Smith gets this group any where close to the play offs they should win coach of the year and GM of the year hands down. And the voting shouldn't even be close.


Let the spell police begin, lol.