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Old 04-25-2007   #1
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Default Rumor--Trade In Place

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I guess it really wouldn't be a huge shocker, would it? After all, it wouldn't be difficult for Rick Smith to answer his cell phone if he saw "Coach Shanahan" on the caller I.D.

I heard from three different sources on Tuesday night and the biggest info potentially involves our boys. I'm hearing that the Broncos are going to try and make a move up the draft board and are looking to land somewhere ahead of San Francisco. Why? Because the Broncos are worried that the Niners will target the guy they want to get their hands on .... Ole Miss LB Patrick Willis. The Texans are one spot ahead of the Niners who draft at #11 and it would make perfect sense for the Texans to move back into the 21st selection and look for someone like Reggie Nelson, Aaron Ross, Joe Staley, Ted Ginn or Dwayne Bowe. The Texans will be open to trading back since they need to recoup at least one pick and I'm pretty certain they could land Denver's second round pick (#56) and potentially a later round pick too. Whether they get a deal done with Denver or not, the Texans know they have to have players and moving back is the smart move.
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Obviously rumor at this point, but I like the potential of that trade.

For reference--#10 (1300 pts) = #21 (800 pts) + #56 (340 pts) + #86 (160 pts)--perfect fit. Four 1st day picks for the Texans would be HUGE.
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Old 04-25-2007   #2
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it may be huge...but look at the Titans draft that everyone called so good for Babin. Laboy is a bust, Odom isn't much of a player, Starks has shown why he slipped to the later rounds and Bo Schobel isn't even on the team now. If too many teams want to trade up it may be due to a weaker draft class after the first round. I'd just as soon have Willis if we get the "quality" players like the Titans did when we gave all those picks for Babin. It all depends on how you grade this draft....that's the key to trading back. Do it in the RIGHT year...like LAST year was a good one to trade back, I'm not so sure this year is.

http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs....6/1027/RSS0201
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2. Don't throw multiple picks at one position hoping to find an answer.

Quality, not quantity, is the solution based on what the team did at defensive end in 2004 and wide receiver in 2005.

The Titans have yet to get a consistent contribution out of Travis LaBoy or Antwan Odom and cut Bo Schobel out of training camp last season. Combine the body of work of the trio and you don't yet get one complete player.
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Old 04-25-2007   #3
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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
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Obviously rumor at this point, but I like the potential of that trade.

For reference--#10 (1300 pts) = #21 (800 pts) + #56 (340 pts) + #86 (160 pts)--perfect fit. Four 1st day picks for the Texans would be HUGE.
I would like this. This draft doesn't have anyone who stands out to me as someone we need (aside from the guys in the top 5) and trading back to possibly get Ginn or Staley plus some extra picks.
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Old 04-25-2007   #4
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I would make that trade, unless Peterson is there. If AD slides, I need even more to give up the rights to him. Anyone else, and ya, let's do it. Slide back, and take Staley, Bowe, Meachum, Ginn, Ross, Nelson, Beason, et al. There are plenty of players there who can help us. Maybe we don't get a superstar, but we need more really solid players as well, and that move would go a long ways toward filling some holes.

And I understand Vinny's point as well, but after last year, I really have faith in this front office that they can come up with the Spencer's and Daniel's in this draft.
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Old 04-25-2007   #5
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This trade would be phenomenal. Barring Peterson falling to us, it would be a no brainer. The talent at 10 just isn't that much better than 21 in this draft, especially if you don't have a specific target as Denver does. At 21, we could go BPA which would likely be Meachem or Nelson, assuming Staley is taken at 20 by NYG(the way things look). No there are no guarantees but 2 extra 1st day picks could go a long way towards adding depth. If the draft is a crap shoot, why argue with more bets?
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Old 04-25-2007   #6
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If too many teams want to trade up it may be due to a weaker draft class after the first round.
Hear what you are saying, but (1) this looks like a perfect storm with Willis likely falling to us but interest from the team one behind us and multiple all ready high quality (i.e. less draft needs) teams interested--Pats and Broncos reported so far and (2) the Titans didn't necessarily make the best draft picks they could have. By the way, the Titans got the Troupe pick from us, not Laboy.

Four picks could turn into starters or good competition at C, FS, OLB and WR in no particular order.
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Old 04-25-2007   #7
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Also, it's worth noting that the Redskins dynasty(built by Bobby Beathard, NOT Casserly) traded down or out of the 1st round 7 straight years. Maybe late 1sts and 2nds are more risky than high 1sts, but they're also cheaper. Cheaper players allow more cap room which allow for more impactful free agent signings(proven talent). That's why you don't pay an unproven DE $27M guaranteed...but that's last year's argument.
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Old 04-25-2007   #8
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Also, it's worth noting that the Redskins dynasty(built by Bobby Beathard, NOT Casserly) traded down or out of the 1st round 7 straight years. Maybe late 1sts and 2nds are more risky than high 1sts, but they're also cheaper. Cheaper players allow more cap room which allow for more impactful free agent signings(proven talent). That's why you don't pay an unproven DE $27M guaranteed...but that's last year's argument.
We have no issue with cap room, especially in 2008.

We had to go defense last year when we re-signed Carr. In light of the Super Bowl Champs having the best QB in the NFL and the Titans having the Offensive ROY it was a very smart choice to go with the best defensive player on most NFL boards last year.
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Old 04-25-2007   #9
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We have no issue with cap room, especially in 2008.

We had to go defense last year when we re-signed Carr. In light of the Super Bowl Champs having the best QB in the NFL and the Titans having the Offensive ROY it was a very smart choice to go with the best defensive player on most NFL boards last year.
If we had taken that Offensive ROY, I don't think we'd have to worry about him. And we'd be much better off paying that DE 4th pick money and getting a couple of extra picks in the process. If the rumors are true, we could have gotten Mario at 4(with NO taking Hawk 2nd) if we swapped with the Jets.
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Old 04-25-2007   #10
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If we had taken that Offensive ROY, I don't think we'd have to worry about him. And we'd be much better off paying that DE 4th pick money and getting a couple of extra picks in the process. If the rumors are true, we could have gotten Mario at 4(with NO taking Hawk 2nd) if we swapped with the Jets.
Thankfully Casserly was not that ignorant in re-signing Carr and drafting a QB at #1. That would have been the biggest mistake ever.
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Old 04-25-2007   #11
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If we had taken that Offensive ROY, I don't think we'd have to worry about him. And we'd be much better off paying that DE 4th pick money and getting a couple of extra picks in the process. If the rumors are true, we could have gotten Mario at 4(with NO taking Hawk 2nd) if we swapped with the Jets.

The Texans were unable to trade down. When the Texans GM called the Jets to see if they were interested in moving up the Jets GM said yes what are you going to give us to do it. The draft last year was deep and nobody was willing to give up anything to move up when they knew a great player would be there when they drafted anyway.
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Old 04-25-2007   #12
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The Texans were unable to trade down. When the Texans GM called the Jets to see if they were interested in moving up the Jets GM said yes what are you going to give us to do it. The draft last year was deep and nobody was willing to give up anything to move up when they knew a great player would be there when they drafted anyway.
That's garbage spun by the team to sway fans into agreeing with the pick. New York, Green Bay, and San Fran all would have gladly traded up to get Bush. Could we have gotten even value as denoted by the draft chart? Probably not. Could we have made a trade and still probably gotten Mario? Yes.
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Old 04-25-2007   #13
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And we'd be much better off paying that DE 4th pick money and getting a couple of extra picks in the process. If the rumors are true, we could have gotten Mario at 4(with NO taking Hawk 2nd) if we swapped with the Jets.
Depends on which rumor you believe. One rumor was Bush was ranked #1 on 25 teams boards and Mario was ranked #1 on the other seven. Another rumor was the Saints were all over Mario at #2. Another report was Casserly approached the Jets about swapping the #1 and #4 picks and their GM's response was, "what else you going to give us"--and no that wasn't spin to justify the pick since Casserly didn't relate that story until recently, i.e. long after he left the Texans, and by all reports he preferred Bush over Mario.
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Old 04-25-2007   #14
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Guys, as much as I think the Texans probably screwed up last year, let's see how Mario pans out first. Also, this is this year. What can the Texans do this year to help themselves. Last year is water under the bridge.
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Old 04-25-2007   #15
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Depends on which rumor you believe. One rumor was Bush was ranked #1 on 25 teams boards and Mario was ranked #1 on the other seven. Another rumor was the Saints were all over Mario at #2. Another report was Casserly approached the Jets about swapping the #1 and #4 picks and their GM's response was, "what else you going to give us"--and no that wasn't spin to justify the pick since Casserly didn't relate that story until recently, i.e. long after he left the Texans, and by all reports he preferred Bush over Mario.
Since we can't verify any reports, we have nothing to go by. But it's undeniable that the Texans lost value by taking Mario 1st and not playing their cards. If we had selected Bush and held him as bait for NYJ, GB, or SF, we could have gotten added selections from one of the teams(how you can argue this is ridiculous) and then taken BPA at our new spot. Williams, Ferguson, or Hawk at 4-5-6 money + added picks is a greater value than just Mario at 1st overall money. Unless you are Charlie Casserly himself, this must have some sort of logic to you. That concept made sense at the time and it still does. The problem is that McNair demanded we sign our pick predraft, eliminating Bush, and forcing our hand with Williams.
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Old 04-25-2007   #16
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Depends on which rumor you believe. One rumor was Bush was ranked #1 on 25 teams boards and Mario was ranked #1 on the other seven. Another rumor was the Saints were all over Mario at #2. Another report was Casserly approached the Jets about swapping the #1 and #4 picks and their GM's response was, "what else you going to give us"--and no that wasn't spin to justify the pick since Casserly didn't relate that story until recently, i.e. long after he left the Texans, and by all reports he preferred Bush over Mario.
Well that settles it right there. If Casserly preferred Bush, I think we definitly made the right decision!
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Old 04-25-2007   #17
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If we had selected Bush and held him as bait for NYJ, GB, or SF, we could have gotten added selections from one of the teams(how you can argue this is ridiculous)
Look at all the rumors of trade discussions this year. There was never anything but fan speculation last year--neither before the draft or after that the Texans had ever been offered anything to move up. You are also operating off a totally unsubstantiated belief that Mario would have fallen to #4. I would have been perfectly happy with the Texans getting a 2nd round pick to move back to #4 and take either Mario or D'Brick--didn't work out that way, get over it. All this after the fact complaining based on worst case scenario assumptions is useless. Like Porky said--what is important is this year.
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Old 04-25-2007   #18
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If we pull the trigger and trade down, it lets us get a legitimate shot at filling our needs. If we trade back, Im not worried about wasting our picks, Smith and Kubiak were very wise with their picks last year and look what they pulled off. I agee with what Vinny said in quality over quantity, but if we're smart with our picks, whos to say we couldn't do both?
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Old 04-25-2007   #19
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Like Porky said--what is important is this year.
Agreed. If you will reread, this entire argument started because of the notion that the Texans failed to trade down last year, a mistake they hopefully will not repeat. But luckily it appears the Broncos are willing to commit the Cardinal Sin of the NFL Draft, trading up, and we are the benefactors. This draft will probably make or break the careers of Kubiak and Smith and if this trade doesn't happen, I would lean towards break. The massive lack of depth on the roster is startling.
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Old 04-25-2007   #20
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This draft will probably make or break the careers of Kubiak and Smith and if this trade doesn't happen, I would lean towards break. The massive lack of depth on the roster is startling.
That's where I disagree with you for both last year and this year. This trade with Denver is a rumor. Only a bad GM will trade down without getting at least decent value and you can't judge that unless you know the actual trades offered. Absent knowing a specific trade offer or that the team even received a trade offer, you can't conclude the GM screwed up by not trading down.
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