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Old 10-28-2004   #1
Mistril48
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Default Jags Terrific 12 v. Texan Terrific 12

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In a salary cap regime like the NFL, the value of a player is a function of his performance measured against his cap value. A non-expansion NFL team typically drafts 12 players (the “T12” if you will) in the first 3 rounds over a 4 year period. These 12 players are particularly valuable to a franchise in a salary cap regime, because they typically have much lower cap values than players signed through free agency. For example, Chester Pitts has a 2004 cap value of $705,000, but Steve McKinney has a 2004 cap value of $3,050,000.

Typically, an impact player becomes a free agent after four accrued years and either leaves, or receives his first big free agency contract. Each year, a franchise typically loses 3 first day drafted players to free agency (unless they re-sign the players) and get three replacements through the draft, thereby maintaining their T12 (in some cases, of course, a player drafted to be a T12 player won’t work out and a team may end up with less than 12, or a second day drafted player may excel, like Domanick Davis, thereby creating more than 12). McKinney, Bradford, Wong, Smith and Wade are all examples of four year players who got big raises to come to the Texans for their 5th year.

In the 2002 season, the Texans first year, they only had 5 T12 (1 first, 2 second and 2 third), while all the other teams had 12. Bummer. Unlike the Panthers and the Jaguars, the Texans weren’t given any extra first round picks. Hard to compete.

The good news is the Texans have now caught up, thanks to expansion picks and Charlie Casserly’s astute trades. They now have 12 players who they drafted on the first day. The Texans now have a T12 like other NFL teams. Good.

New Posting

How about the Texans next opponent (players drafted by Coughlin in Blue), the Jags. How does their T12 compare with the Texans?

. . YR . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . . YR . . . Jags (4 yrs)

F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .’01 DT Marcus Stroud
I. . ’02 . QB David Carr . . . . . . . . . . .’02 DT John Henderson
R . ’03 . WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . .‘03 QB Byron Leftwich
S . ’04 . CB Dunta Robinson . . . . . . . ’04 WR Reggie Williams
T . ’04 . LB Jason Babin

S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’01 OT Maurice Williams
E . ’02 . WR Jabar Gaffney
C . ’02 . OL Chester Pitts . . . . . . . . . .’02 OT Mike Pearson
O . ’03 . TE Benny Joppru . . . . . . . . . ‘03 CB Rashean Mathis
N . ’04 . RB Tony Hollings. . . . . . . . . . ’04 LB Daryl Smith
D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’04 RB Greg Jones


. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’01 LB Eric Westmoreland
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’01 DB James Boyd
T . ’02 . OL Fred Weary . . . . . . . . . . '02 LB Akin Ayodele
H . ’02 . OL Charles Hill (released)
I . ’03. . LB Antwan Peek. . . . . . . . . . ’03 OG Vince Manuwai
R . ’03 . OL Seth Wand
D . ’03 .QB Dave Ragone
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’04 LB Jorge Cordova


I would argue that the Jags, like the Vikings & Tacks, illustrate how we have ‘arrived’ after just three years of drafts. We drafted 13 first day players and the Jags have drafted 14. The Texans have generated 7 starters (Carr, Johnson, Gaffney, Pitts, Wand, Babin, Robinson) from our T12. The Jags have generated 9 starters, 4 under Coughlin (I think – Stroud, Henderson, Williams, Ayodele) and 5 under Harris (I think –Leftwich, Manuai, Smith, Mathis, Williams) from their T12.


. . . . . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . . . . . . Jags (4 yrs)

. . . . . . QB David Carr . . . . . . . . . . . . .QB Byron Leftwich
. . . . . . QB Dave Ragone

. . . . . . RB Tony Hollings . . . . . . . . . . . RB Greg Jones

. . . . . .WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . . . . WR Reggie Williams
. . . . . .WR Jabar Gaffney

. . . . . . TE Benny Joppru

. . . . . .OG Chester Pitts . . . . . . . . . . . .OT Maurice Williams
. . . . . .OT Seth Wand. . . . . . . . . . . . . .OT Mike Pearson
. . . . . .OG Fred Weary . . . . . . . . . . . . .OG Vince Manuwai


. . . . . .DL Charles Hill (released) . . . . . . DT Marcus Stroud
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .DT John Henderson

. . . . . .LB Jason Babin. . . . . . . . . . . . . .LB Daryl Smith
. . . . . .LB Antwan Peek . . . . . . . . . . . . LB Eric Westmoreland
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .LB Akin Ayodele
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .LB Jorge Cordova

. . . . . .CB Dunta Robinson . . . . . . . . . . .CB Rashean Mathis
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DB James Boyd

Would you trade our players, above, for their players, above?


Old Posting

And the news gets better for the Texans. In 2005, the Texans should keep all of their T12 (none will have four accrued years) and add 4 new members through the 2005 draft (1 first, 1 second and 2 thirds), giving them a total of 16 T12. Great news!


. . YR . . Texans (4 yrs)

F. .‘02 . QB David Carr
I . ’03 . WR Andre Johnson
R . ’04 . CB Dunta Robinson
S . ‘04 . LB Jason Babin
T . ’05 . . . . P I C K

S . ’02 . WR Jabar Gaffney
E . ’02 . OL Chester Pitts
C . ’03 . TE Benny Joppru
O . ’04 . RB Tony Hollings
N . ’05 . . . . P I C K

. . ‘02 . OL Fred Weary
T . ’02 . OL Charles Hill (released)
H . ’03 . LB Antwan Peek
I . .‘03 . OL Seth Wand
R . ‘03 . QB Dave Ragone
D . ’05 . . . . P I C K
. .. ’05 . . . . P I C K
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Old 10-28-2004   #2
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. . . . . . Texans (only 3 yrs) . . . . . . . . . . Jags (4 yrs)

. . . . . . QB David Carr . . . . . . . . . . . . .QB Byron Leftwich
. . . . . . QB Dave Ragone

. . . . . . RB Tony Hollings . . . . . . . . . . . RB Greg Jones

. . . . . .WR Andre Johnson . . . . . . . . . . WR Reggie Williams
. . . . . .WR Jabar Gaffney

. . . . . . TE Benny Joppru

. . . . . .OG Chester Pitts . . . . . . . . . . . .OT Maurice Williams
. . . . . .OT Seth Wand. . . . . . . . . . . . . .OT Mike Pearson
. . . . . .OG Fred Weary . . . . . . . . . . . . .OG Vince Manuwai


. . . . . .DL Charles Hill (released) . . . . . . DT Marcus Stroud
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .DT John Henderson

. . . . . .LB Jason Babin. . . . . . . . . . . . . .LB Daryl Smith
. . . . . .LB Antwan Peek . . . . . . . . . . . . LB Eric Westmoreland
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .LB Akin Ayodele
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .LB Jorge Cordova

. . . . . .CB Dunta Robinson . . . . . . . . . . .CB Rashean Mathis
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DB James Boyd

Would you trade our players, above, for their players, above?





Ummm.... I'll keep our guys. I feel confident that any nfl coach would do the same.
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Old 10-28-2004   #3
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Only place I see them obviously leading is in the defensive line department.. but we havent really drafted DL yet. You could argue that they lead in the LB department as well.. but that will really have to wait until we see if Babin is the real deal... he seems great so far.

This year we will be drafting DL im sure.. so we will get to see how we compare in that area as well.

Id definatly take ours over theirs.. Other than Leftwich.. their offensive draft picks have been questionable IMO.
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Old 10-28-2004   #4
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For those that think the Jags have a better list, remember that they have had 4 years of drafts to the Texans 3 years, but I wouldn't argue the list either way. I think both teams have done well. In a few years, we'll know better.

I think it's interesting how well Coughlin did, drafting the tackles for the Jags. Del Rio gets all the credit, but Coughlin cotributed the tackles (and WR Smith and RB Taylor) ... and now he's showing his coaching ability with the Giants.
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Old 10-28-2004   #5
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I honestly like Leftwich, Henderson, and Stroud. I like their T12 a bit better than ours atm.
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Old 10-28-2004   #6
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So since all the players you list are high first rd picks you would trade Leftwich, Henderson and Stroud straight up for Carr, Andre Johnson and Dunta Robinson then. Right?
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Old 10-28-2004   #7
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I'll take whichever list has AJ in it ........
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Old 10-28-2004   #8
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I would trade our O-line picks for theirs.
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Old 10-28-2004   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
So since all the players you list are high first rd picks you would trade Leftwich, Henderson and Stroud straight up for Carr, Andre Johnson and Dunta Robinson then. Right?
If we were running a 4-3, the answer would be "Yes".
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Old 10-28-2004   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wags
I would trade our O-line picks for theirs.
I wouldn't. Pitts is better than everyone on that list and Wand will be better than Pearson.
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Old 10-28-2004   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOgre
If we were running a 4-3, the answer would be "Yes".
If Christmas was in April Santa would be wearing shorts. :hehe:

The team with the best player wins the trade. AJ is the best player in that group.
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Old 10-28-2004   #12
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Both teams' lists are impressive. It looks like this will be a fun rivalry for a long time. In truth, our list should be better than theirs. Starting from scratch, we were able to draft solely on BPA. Existing teams, however, can't exclusively do that.

Having said that, with each week that goes by, it appears our scouting and Casserly and company are doing an excellent job. We've had three good drafts and zero busts in the first two rounds (with Joppru still a question)
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Old 10-28-2004   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
If Christmas was in April Santa would be wearing shorts. :hehe:

The team with the best player wins the trade. AJ is the best player in that group.
Amen! AJ is the best player out of the 03 Draft period.
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Old 10-28-2004   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
If Christmas was in April Santa would be wearing shorts. :hehe:
Smart arse!!

Quote:
The team with the best player wins the trade. AJ is the best player in that group.
Since we are a 3-4 team, I wouldn't make the trade. Those two DT's don't help OUR team (a 3-4 one) as much right now as Dunta and AJ. I do like Leftwich, Henderson, and Stroud MORE for the Jaguars, though, than I like AJ, Carr, and Dunta for us. Not a lot more but more.

Those three players for Jacksonville are the main reason they are 5-2 and leading the division. Teams have been stumbling over themselves to get ONE stud DT in the past few drafts and the Jags have TWO. They help shut down most team's ability to run with the ball and force teams to throw. It takes pressure off the corners and helps a team control the tempo.

The DT's are also multi-dimensional enough to provide some pressure up the middle on pass plays. If they ever got a couple of average DE's (I still think the Reggie Williams pick was a reach), then they could have the best D-line in the league.
Leftwich has a year less in the league than Carr, but appears to be performing at about the same level. Leftwich came "no assembly required" whereas Carr has needed more work to get him up to the NFL level. Carr may be the better QB in the long run, but that has yet to be seen.

I don't necessarily agree with your automatic presumption that AJ is the best of these 6. He is going to be a top talent at WR but the Jags two DT's are already 2 of the best DT's in the NFL (right after the currently injured Kris Jenkins). You apparently don't have the same respect for these two that I do.
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Old 10-28-2004   #15
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I have a ton of respect for those two, but no way I trade a game breaking WR for a defensive tackle. If the NFL redrafted Stroud, Hainsworth and AJ in an expansion draft I'd bet AJ would be the first player taken.
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Old 10-28-2004   #16
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eh.. the way I see it.. our offense is set to explode.. and our defense has nowhere to go but up. We are shaping up to have a top 10 defense for the next 5 years or so, the way we are looking now.. and with a couple defensive drafts under our belt.. ive have complete faith that we will also be an above average defensive team.
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Old 10-28-2004   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
I have a ton of respect for those two, but no way I trade a game breaking WR for a defensive tackle. If the NFL redrafted Stroud, Hainsworth and AJ in an expansion draft I'd bet AJ would be the first player taken.
The discussion was about a comparison of two sets of 3 players, not one on one. Defense wins championships. Just look at the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, the two Patriots teams and the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bucs won with Anthony McFarland and Warren Sapp in the middle. The Patriots won in 2003 with Ted Washington (3-4). The Ravens had Tony Siragusa. None of these teams had a top tier WR.
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Old 10-28-2004   #18
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Lots of teams have top tackles and never sniff the Superbowl. The superbowl formula is a bit more complex than who has the best tackles.
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Old 10-28-2004   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
The team with the best player wins the trade...
I hadn't thought of it that way. That's interesting. It's a little hard to wrap your head around that approach here, because all 6 players are good players. I think I want to think about that in terms of other trades and other sports.

Is this an original thought, or have you heard other commentators refer to that approach to evaluating trades?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
AJ is the best player in that group.
I can't disagree now, but I feel that Carr has an unlimited upside as he gains experience. He seems to have it all ... size, speed, toughness, arm strength ... but then Dre has it all too ... freakish size/speed combination
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Old 10-28-2004   #20
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Well when you consider that our team is Leftwich to Gaffney and Bradford if we do that....I'll stick to Walker and Payne and keep Carr and AJ.
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