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Old 03-08-2007   #1
Historyhorn
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Default Long Term Personnel Strategy (Building)

I'm having a hard time getting a read on what the Texan's FO braintrust plan is for long term development of this team considering their Free Agent activity.

Let me preface this by saying that this year and the next as far as drafts and FA acquisitions are concerned will determine the fate of this franchise for probably the next decade.

The general consensus on this board is that we are in a re-building mode right now, in spite of the fact that what was built never really had any success. We have found ourselves in salary cap hell with lots of dead money and money tied up in players who never or no longer produce. That is usually where teams find themselves after a successful run and have aging stars.

So if we don't make shrewd moves in this draft and the next and lay the foundation for some long term success, we'll find ourselves again in the rebuilding mode while never having had any success. You'll see a new GM and probably a new head coach and the we'll be starting from ground zero again with a realisitic wait time of another 4 to 5 years before any real success might come from the new regime. That my friends is squarely in the Cardinals, Bungles of the 90's, & Buccaneers up until Chucky zone. A franchise known for mediocrity and futility for up to a decade or more.

So here is what we have thus far:

1) In a draft with possibly the deepest skill position talent since the Marino, Elway, Kelly QB class in '83, the Texans with the #1 pick take a DE.

2) Three real cornerstone "franchise" type players: DR, AJ, & Ryans. None of those at RB or QB.

3) An anemic O with holes on the O-line, a geriatric brigate at RB, a QB with mobility & arm but with more confidence problems than Ray Finkle, and no real number 2 or 3 WR.

4) A defense with big talent gaps/holes on the D-line and secondary.


So where do the Texans go from here?

While upset that the Texans FO was too dumb to pick VY, Leinart, or Cutler last year....I could excuse the move if they were planning to go the Steelers route to building a team. Build the defense and the o-line first, then address the offensive skill spots later. I thought last year's draft was a hopeful indicater they are going in that direction.

In my opinion, they need to go defense and O-line on the entire first day of the draft. Don't reach, don't go for the glamour picks, don't pick tweeners you hope will pan out, don't pick projects with huge upside but big risks. Just solid players who will produce for years to come. Go defense first but get at least one o-lineman. Build depth in day two just picking BPA, regardless of position. Get folks who have a decent chance to actually play minutes for you. Next year do it all over again.

Then you start to look for offensive talent to decorate that core of a dominating defense and a mean, nasty O-line. The next two years on the field may be rough, but I'd rather take my lumps with the promise of long term future success than to chase fool's gold now and continue to wallow in mediocrity.

Go Texans!
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Old 03-08-2007   #2
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Default Re: Long Term Personnel Strategy (Building)

I agree with a lot of what you said. How do you expect a big time skill player able to make plays without the help up front? For example, Brian Urlacher is a good player, but notice he started playing a lot better when Tommie Harris came into the picture. Drew Brees struggled until the emergence of Antonio Gates and LT in San Diego. Think about this, it is Carrs rookie season in 2009... he has a franchise left tackle, AJ who has 3 pro bowls under his belt, a top 10 defense, and a pro bowl running back... yeah road doesn't seem so bumpy there.
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Old 03-08-2007   #3
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Default Re: Long Term Personnel Strategy (Building)

I agree with 2/3 of what you said I think we should go dline, oline, secondary on the first day and oline, LB, WR, QB on the second day. Not in any specific order.
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Old 03-08-2007   #4
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Default Re: Long Term Personnel Strategy (Building)

Honestly.... this team has so many holes that I feel we should go BPA regardless for atleast the next two years. The only thing we "don't" need is another starting middle linebacker. We could use another starter at every single position (with the exception of middle linebacker) on this team.

Last edited by CVTexan; 03-08-2007 at 01:12 PM.
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Old 03-08-2007   #5
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Default Re: Long Term Personnel Strategy (Building)

You don't think MW is a cornerstone type player you can build a franchise around? Do you REALLY think ANY QB we draft will be successful with our OL as it is? Is big spending in FA the pathway to the playoffs, in your opinion? The blunders of CC and Co. are WELL documented on this MB. They made some flat out boneheaded decisions. I haven't seen that from the new regime, yet. I like the fact that they have a player's value charted and aren't overspending in FA. THAT is the quickest path to Bengals/Cardinals/Detroit Land. This FO looks like it is going to build through the draft and try to sign FA's that fit the schemes and the budget. IMO, it's utterly ridiculous to say that the next 2 yrs. will determine the outcome of the next decade. Not in this age of parity. If this draft is anywhere near as good as last years, this is a team on a rocket ride. I think Winston and Spencer are going to be cornerstones of the OL for the next decade( I think Spencer will be back from his injury), AJ is in the fold for the next 6 yrs or so and our D could be a monster with a good draft this year. A lot of the time, the things you DON'T do are much more important than the things you DO. Would it have been smart of us to sign Clemens to an $80 mil contract? Sell the farm for Briggs? Nope. This is going to be a great draft for D and I see us going that way on day 1 and getting at least 2 starters.
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Old 03-08-2007   #6
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Default Re: Long Term Personnel Strategy (Building)

I don't think you can look at what they did last year and make assumptions about the direction we're headed. They made a lot of questionable moves from coaching, to F/A signing...

Our biggest F/A signing last year was Weaver...Then we go out and draft Mario with the number one overall....and after all that when the season is over we need to improve our pass rush ????

They tried Weaver inside....That didn't work

they tried him outside.....That didn't work...

Questionable moves all around, So I look for some shockers this year as well...

I think that this off-season will be the one that you can look back on and make a good assumption about their philosophies...
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Old 03-08-2007   #7
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Default Re: Long Term Personnel Strategy (Building)

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Originally Posted by Historyhorn View Post
In my opinion, they need to go defense and O-line on the entire first day of the draft. Don't reach, don't go for the glamour picks, don't pick tweeners you hope will pan out, don't pick projects with huge upside but big risks. Just solid players who will produce for years to come. Go defense first but get at least one o-lineman. Build depth in day two just picking BPA, regardless of position. Get folks who have a decent chance to actually play minutes for you. Next year do it all over again.

Go Texans!
Sounds good, pick the best player available. Don't forget about WR on day one.
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Old 03-08-2007   #8
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Default Re: Long Term Personnel Strategy (Building)

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...I think that this off-season will be the one that you can look back on and make a good assumption about their philosophies...
Your right, and their philosophy is to build the team through the draft, not FA.
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Old 03-08-2007   #9
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Default Re: Long Term Personnel Strategy (Building)

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Your right, and their philosophy is to build the team through the draft, not FA.
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Old 03-08-2007   #10
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Default Re: Long Term Personnel Strategy (Building)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Historyhorn View Post
I'm having a hard time getting a read on what the Texan's FO braintrust plan is for long term development of this team considering their Free Agent activity.

Let me preface this by saying that this year and the next as far as drafts and FA acquisitions are concerned will determine the fate of this franchise for probably the next decade.

The general consensus on this board is that we are in a re-building mode right now, in spite of the fact that what was built never really had any success. We have found ourselves in salary cap hell with lots of dead money and money tied up in players who never or no longer produce. That is usually where teams find themselves after a successful run and have aging stars.

So if we don't make shrewd moves in this draft and the next and lay the foundation for some long term success, we'll find ourselves again in the rebuilding mode while never having had any success. You'll see a new GM and probably a new head coach and the we'll be starting from ground zero again with a realisitic wait time of another 4 to 5 years before any real success might come from the new regime. That my friends is squarely in the Cardinals, Bungles of the 90's, & Buccaneers up until Chucky zone. A franchise known for mediocrity and futility for up to a decade or more.

So here is what we have thus far:

1) In a draft with possibly the deepest skill position talent since the Marino, Elway, Kelly QB class in '83, the Texans with the #1 pick take a DE.

2) Three real cornerstone "franchise" type players: DR, AJ, & Ryans. None of those at RB or QB.

3) An anemic O with holes on the O-line, a geriatric brigate at RB, a QB with mobility & arm but with more confidence problems than Ray Finkle, and no real number 2 or 3 WR.

4) A defense with big talent gaps/holes on the D-line and secondary.


So where do the Texans go from here?

While upset that the Texans FO was too dumb to pick VY, Leinart, or Cutler last year....I could excuse the move if they were planning to go the Steelers route to building a team. Build the defense and the o-line first, then address the offensive skill spots later. I thought last year's draft was a hopeful indicater they are going in that direction.

In my opinion, they need to go defense and O-line on the entire first day of the draft. Don't reach, don't go for the glamour picks, don't pick tweeners you hope will pan out, don't pick projects with huge upside but big risks. Just solid players who will produce for years to come. Go defense first but get at least one o-lineman. Build depth in day two just picking BPA, regardless of position. Get folks who have a decent chance to actually play minutes for you. Next year do it all over again.

Then you start to look for offensive talent to decorate that core of a dominating defense and a mean, nasty O-line. The next two years on the field may be rough, but I'd rather take my lumps with the promise of long term future success than to chase fool's gold now and continue to wallow in mediocrity.

Go Texans!
Umm, lets see, I think that's exactly what they did last year.

Defense on the 1st day:
Mario and Ryans (check)

O-line on the 1st day:
Spencer and Winston (check)

Throw in the fact they picked up Weaver, Flanagan, and Salaam in FA and I'd say they are trying to do just what you say they need to do. And yet you say they made a mistake picking Mario over VY. Also, you say "don't pick projects with huge upside but big risk." That's exactly what VY was labeled before the draft. His ceiling was very high, his floor was pretty low, and he was considered a "project."

Look, it's fun to sit here with 20/20 hindsight and say that Kubes/FO made a big mistake with this player or that player, but lets be real. Kubiak (and now Smith too) has a plan to build this team from the "trenches" out. I can see that from the moves they made last year. But, I realize that not all of their choices are going to be "home runs." I think Kubes did the best he could with hand he was delt last year (a 4 win improvement says alot), and I think he and Smith will continue to build this team into a winner. JMHO!

Sorry for the rant!
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Old 03-08-2007   #11
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Default Re: Long Term Personnel Strategy (Building)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Insideop View Post
Umm, lets see, I think that's exactly what they did last year.

Defense on the 1st day:
Mario and Ryans (check)

O-line on the 1st day:
Spencer and Winston (check)

Throw in the fact they picked up Weaver, Flanagan, and Salaam in FA and I'd say they are trying to do just what you say they need to do. And yet you say they made a mistake picking Mario over VY. Also, you say "don't pick projects with huge upside but big risk." That's exactly what VY was labeled before the draft. His ceiling was very high, his floor was pretty low, and he was considered a "project."

Look, it's fun to sit here with 20/20 hindsight and say that Kubes/FO made a big mistake with this player or that player, but lets be real. Kubiak (and now Smith too) has a plan to build this team from the "trenches" out. I can see that from the moves they made last year. But, I realize that not all of their choices are going to be "home runs." I think Kubes did the best he could with hand he was delt last year (a 4 win improvement says alot), and I think he and Smith will continue to build this team into a winner. JMHO!

Sorry for the rant!
I'm not sure you got exactly what I was trying to convey. To not take a difference making skill playerin a year when the draft was arguably the deepest it had been there since '83 takes a ton of stones. I would have taken any one of the three of the Leinart, Cutler, or VY at the #1. For whatever reason, DC is not working out and I think the chances of him leading this team to the promised land were dashed in about year three. So with him not being that franchise QB.....take one and then build the other pieces as he grows.

The other option is what they did last year. I indicated I could excuse the passing of the superb skill position players on the grounds that they would build like the Steelers. Oline and defense, then add whatever skill you can get after that and they'll be successful, because of the pieces around them. They executed that plan to a tee in year one draft. If they don't hold to that same philosophy this year, then I believe you're looking at a ton of trouble. Essentially, they'd be abandoning the plan after just one year.

As to whether these two years of drafts hold the key to the next decade... that is on target. We're not going to be big winners this coming year ya'll. We have too many holes. A poor draft this year and an equal number of holes starts to look like three to four years of losing for Kubiak. He won't survive that. Hire a new coach and possibly a GM. They re-evaluate talent....slash and burn to rebuild and its another 4 years prior to competition for some serious hardware. Any way you slice it or dice it, that is 8 years and pretty damn close to a decade of more losing football. I'm resigned to the fact we'll have another two years in loserville. The real question will be whether we are on the way out then or back in rebuilding mode again.

Go Texans
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Old 03-08-2007   #12
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Default Re: Long Term Personnel Strategy (Building)

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Originally Posted by DocBar View Post
You don't think MW is a cornerstone type player you can build a franchise around? Do you REALLY think ANY QB we draft will be successful with our OL as it is? Is big spending in FA the pathway to the playoffs, in your opinion? The blunders of CC and Co. are WELL documented on this MB. They made some flat out boneheaded decisions. I haven't seen that from the new regime, yet. I like the fact that they have a player's value charted and aren't overspending in FA. THAT is the quickest path to Bengals/Cardinals/Detroit Land. This FO looks like it is going to build through the draft and try to sign FA's that fit the schemes and the budget. IMO, it's utterly ridiculous to say that the next 2 yrs. will determine the outcome of the next decade. Not in this age of parity. If this draft is anywhere near as good as last years, this is a team on a rocket ride. I think Winston and Spencer are going to be cornerstones of the OL for the next decade( I think Spencer will be back from his injury), AJ is in the fold for the next 6 yrs or so and our D could be a monster with a good draft this year. A lot of the time, the things you DON'T do are much more important than the things you DO. Would it have been smart of us to sign Clemens to an $80 mil contract? Sell the farm for Briggs? Nope. This is going to be a great draft for D and I see us going that way on day 1 and getting at least 2 starters.

No. I don't think Mario is a franchise cornerstone type player. You generally don't get those on the D-line. The Cowboys took Russell Maryland with the number one some years back. He turned into a nice player, but was part of a D-line rotation. I'm a firm believer in having lots of quality D-line players for a solid rotation at the spot. That is especially true in a 4-3. In order for Mario to be really a dominant player, he'll need four to three to four more front-line D-linemen. I don't think that qualifies him as a cornerstone franchise player, just a member of a solid core.

As to big $$$ spending in free agency....I'm diametrically opposed to that as a way to get to the playoffs. Check out the Redskin's success in that dept. My comment is it is difficult to get a read on the FO plan based upon what they have done thus far. We're cutting guys we spent $$$ on last year and then declaring that a need position. We then get Ahman Green who is on the backside of his productive years when better backs were available. Does that mean he's just a stop-gap until better years (two or three years down the road)? I'm just calling for consistency to a philosophy. If we go D and O-line again this year, I think you'll be seeing a foundation for massive wins later. If not, then that lack of fidelity to the precedent they set last year could be a harbinger of lots and lots more tough times.

Go Texans
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