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Old 03-04-2007   #1
The Preacher
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Default Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

Before you call me crazy let's just realize it is actually more a 7-year 64 mil deal and not 8/80. The extra year gives you another year to spread the bonus out over which is 3mil per roughly. Then the structure is probably like 3,4,4,5,6,7,9,16(+24bonus). So really the first four years won't count but 6,7,7,8 mil against the cap. Yes they'll have to eat a 10 mil hit in half a decade if they decide he has lost a step and by then the cap will be 140 mil anyway so it won't take up but 7% of the cap space. In perspective Tennessee had 40% in dead cap last year and still managed an 8-8 record so why not go for it every now and then.

Next if you figure your 25 starters will eat up 75% of your cap space that's approximately 80 mil/25 players=roughly 3.1 per on average. Of course some of those 25(top ten) will make way more so at 6,7,7,8 mil per year for the next four years you can see Clements is a steal since he is probably one of the top three CB's in the league. He is easily worth that. Now my numbers are obviously guestimates but I would think they are in the ballpark by a mil or so.

The NFL is a cash machine and the cap is ever growing. It's kind of like the show Survivor where you have a certain amount of money you bid on food and the folks who spend big early on get the big reward where those who are conservative end up holding cash they can't use. That is my guess of what will happen over the next several years. The teams that take the superstar FA's (like San Fran) will vastly improve over the rest of the league. The argument look at Washington doesn't apply anymore since the cap will be so much bigger than it was a few years ago and they never really got what ended up being the best players anyway. Houston will have cleared a lot of space by next year so bonus money could easily be spread out over years to come but this year would be the struggle.

My point-spend the money! Teams are being way too conservative. Not like the Rams on Drew Bennett though. That is an example of how teams will just use cap space because they have it. That will be the future. Mediocre guys getting overpaid because their club has plenty of cap room. So why not get the big catch while you can at a price that seems pretty crazy but in perspective really isn't. I mean Clements will probably only end up being 1or 2 mil more per year against the cap than Bennett for the next few years.
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Old 03-04-2007   #2
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

well sure, if you got the cap room, go ahead and spend it... wisely, of course.
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Old 03-04-2007   #3
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

Not for us. It would have been a waste because we have way to many holes to fill. He def. would have helpd but we still need FS, LB, DT, OT,C, RB, WR. It'd be a waste for us to shell out that kind of money this year. If our team was built up a little better then he'd be an option.

the 49ers are a better team than us imo. they have less holes to fill. They are going to be a really good team so it makes sense for them to spend that money. they need help on defense, their offense is good. didn't they just sign michael lewis for their secondary also? and lelie another wr for them. i see them taking bpa on defense in this draft. I can see them winning their division next year a lot easier than i see us winning it.

We're a few steps/ years away from the playoffs. wait to spend that $$$ when he's the last piece to get to the championship. jmho.
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Old 03-05-2007   #4
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

Clements is now the highest paid defensive player in NFL history, right?

And he's not even the best player at his position right now...
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Old 03-05-2007   #5
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

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Clements is now the highest paid defensive player in NFL history, right?

And he's not even the best player at his position right now...
you are right. Its just like with the free agency in baseball this past year, there are not that many high claibar players but people are willing to go out and spend the mocey on whats the best thats out there right now. Its just a crazy market right now.
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Old 03-05-2007   #6
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

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you are right. Its just like with the free agency in baseball this past year, there are not that many high claibar players but people are willing to go out and spend the mocey on whats the best thats out there right now. Its just a crazy market right now.
I think you hit it dead-on. Players who waited until after the CBA was hammered out ended up doing much better in the long run. Be patient and you'll get your money.

If Deion Branch had waited just one more year, he would have gotten his dough and the Pats would have been able to keep him.
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Old 03-05-2007   #7
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

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I think you hit it dead-on. Players who waited until after the CBA was hammered out ended up doing much better in the long run. Be patient and you'll get your money.

If Deion Branch had waited just one more year, he would have gotten his dough and the Pats would have been able to keep him.
Like $39 mil wasn't overpaying for him already.
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Old 03-05-2007   #8
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

Lol. Skip Bayless just said Nate Clements "is no Dre Bly"...wow, thats all I have to say. How does this man have a job?
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Old 03-05-2007   #9
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

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Like $39 mil wasn't overpaying for him already.
Yeah, you're right... too much. But it would have been more of a market-value thing if he'd put up numbers last year.
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Old 03-05-2007   #10
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

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Originally Posted by run-david-run View Post
Lol. Skip Bayless just said Nate Clements "is no Dre Bly"...wow, thats all I have to say. How does this man have a job?
Yeah he also said, nobody knew him a couple of weeks ago........What?!?. The guy is the most ignorant sports analyst in the country. They could of done their whole "Espn news, talking out of your......" ads with just Skip Bayless.
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Old 03-05-2007   #11
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

Off the top of ya heads people...name the top 10 CBs in this league....

no order...

Bailey
Hall
Samuel
Clements
Mathis
Lucas
McAlister
Newman
Brown
Sheppard

(sound about right?)
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Old 03-05-2007   #12
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

you forgot philip buchannon.
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Old 03-05-2007   #13
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

^^^I sure did didn't I?
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Old 03-05-2007   #14
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

No I don't think Clements was a steal.
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Old 03-05-2007   #15
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Default Re: Anybody else think Clements was a steal?

The cap is a "hard cap." But, it can be manipulated, if you want to. The problem with that is - there will come a year when you have to dump a lot of players and really suck while you take your cap hits (see Tenn/SF/etc.)

I personally think manipulating the cap is a great idea - because I would rather have a great team for four years - even if we have a bad team for the next two.

That being said, we are not that close, so my "manipulation" at this time - would be to "forward load" our cap. Meaning take the hits now. Several ways to do that (i call it the opposite manipulation):
1) cut the long large players that need to go and take the hits now (Domanick/Carr/Wong and possibly Greenwood but we might need him for one more year)
2) instead of big signing bonuses, make it front loaded salary - that way the player gets his money early on but there is no spread out hit.
For Instance: Ahmans Contract; 4 yrs 23 mil; I would have made it salaries of 7, 5, 4, 7 with a minimal signing bonus. We would take a 7 mil hit this year, but we would "get that back" the next two years. Then, in yr 4, we could cut him if he wasn't worth the big number at the end - which is probably the plan anyway.

Then in 2008 - start with the big signing bonuses. We would have a good 4 to 6 year run before the cap crushed us and forced us to rebuild (i would normally project a 4 year period before the cap crushes you but if we "opposite manipulate" in advance then we get an extra two years).

That being said - most front office would be happy with a consistent contender. So, they are not going to set themselves up for a "cap crush" year. And, most teams would like to get better now (including the Texans), so they are not going to "opposite manipulate" to create extra space in a year or two. But, by cutting Moulds (which saved no money this year - but will save a lot next year) and maybe Wong/Domanick/Carr, the team is at least accelerating the dead money hit so it does not hamstring them next year (otherwise we cut them next year and lose a ton of "dead money" then).

Last edited by Xman; 03-05-2007 at 03:05 PM. Reason: left out word
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