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Old 10-04-2004   #1
infantrycak
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Default Carr Progress Report

Prior to the season during the Carr discussions, I suggested the appropriate mark for judging Carr's progress this year was not his year as a whole last year, but his pre-injury performance--a tougher standard as he did much better pre-injury last year than post-injury. So here is the comparison through the 1st 4 games of each season:

2003
56.9 comp. %
880 yds
6.77 ypa
3 TD's
5 INT's
69.39 QB rating
by quarter
82.8 1st
90.4 2nd
76.9 3rd
34.0 4th
7 sacks

for comparison on down field I don't have the 1st 4 games but the improvement is pretty evident. 2003 total 22 20+ yd completions 5 40+ completions.

2004
64.5 comp. %
1003 yds
9.37 ypa
4 TD's
4 INT's
91.8 QB rating
by quarter
37.6 1st
89.7 2nd
91.4 3rd
140.9 4th
11 sacks

17 completions over 20
2 completions over 40

So far looks like Carr has taken a big step forward despite the fact that he has taken 4 more sacks this year. Now if he can just step up his 1st qtr play--although I will take a slow start with a big finish over a decent start and awful finish anyday.
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Old 10-04-2004   #2
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Good post Cak.

I suspect that if we go back and look at 02 vs 03 we would see the noticable improvement as well, maybe not quite as much however. As long as the steady improvement occures that leads to big jumps in the learning curve around the halfway mark of the season. I believe that by the end of the season (assuming no major injuries to Carr or his key weapons) he will have had the "breakout" season folks on the board have been looking for.
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Old 10-04-2004   #3
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A couple of things jump out at me. The YPA is much bigger this year, despite the dinks and dunks to DD.

The biggest thing though is that his passer rating is higher each qtr, and spikes in QTR 4. That is a 180 from last year, when he seemed to shrivel like a flower in the Texas sun in QTR 4. He is still learning, but it is quite evident to me he is making that "giant leap forward" in year 3 we have all been looking for.
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Old 10-04-2004   #4
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It might just be me but another thing that seems to be helping his stats is the WR's aren't dropping as many passes. It's just what I remember from last season though, I might be wrong, any opinions?
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Old 10-04-2004   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texan279
It might just be me but another thing that seems to be helping his stats is the WR's aren't dropping as many passes. It's just what I remember from last season though, I might be wrong, any opinions?
AJ (10), Bradford (1) and Gaffney (1) had a total of 12 drops last year and not all of those came while Carr was playing. So Carr suffered from about 8 drops in 12 games played.

This year AJ has 1 and Armstrong has 1 drop--2 drops in 4 games. Don't think the drop thing has had a huge difference on the overall picture for Carr.
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Old 10-04-2004   #6
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Just wanted to inject that fact that this year we have run DD alot in the 1st quarter and depending on how he is running we adapt from there...so that may have a little something to do with his 1st qtr stats....
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Old 10-04-2004   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sprtsfanatic
Just wanted to inject that fact that this year we have run DD alot in the 1st quarter and depending on how he is running we adapt from there...so that may have a little something to do with his 1st qtr stats....
Not really--Carr has been miserable in the 1st in the last three games starting something like 0-8, 0-6 and 0-6--just bad. Then he settles down and gets things going. It's not that he isn't throwing, it is that he is throwing badly so far in the 1st.
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Old 10-04-2004   #8
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good point....I had just about forgotten about those starts...the KC game sticks ou in my mind pretty vividly...he was overthrowing EVERYTHING in the beginning....good call and thanks for the correction...I stand corrected!
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Old 10-04-2004   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak
This year AJ has 1 and Armstrong has 1 drop--2 drops in 4 games. Don't think the drop thing has had a huge difference on the overall picture for Carr.
I do think the WRs are making more plays on the ball. Especially, the last 2 weeks where AJ has made some highlight reel catches. Look at the play in KC where Gaffney swated away a sure interception early in the 1st quarter. I see the receivers doing a better job of attacking the ball rather than just waiting on it.
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Old 10-04-2004   #10
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I'm now willing to go out on a limb and predict that DC may very well have a future in the NFL.
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Old 10-04-2004   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucky
I do think the WRs are making more plays on the ball. Especially, the last 2 weeks where AJ has made some highlight reel catches. Look at the play in KC where Gaffney swated away a sure interception early in the 1st quarter. I see the receivers doing a better job of attacking the ball rather than just waiting on it.
I should have made myself clearer above--IMO the WR's are doing a better job this year, but the difference on the drop issue alone, I don't think is statistically significant for the above comparison.
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Old 10-08-2004   #12
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Default

How about this for a reversal from last year. Many have noted Carr's improved play in the 4th but was surprised to see this:

Quote:
Texans QB David Carr is the league's best passer in the fourth quarter -- 21 of 29 for 306 yards and three TDs -- with a 140.9 rating. .
Link
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Old 10-08-2004   #13
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He has been as abysmal in the 1st quarter this season as he was in the 4th quarter in the past. I said this a few weeks ago, it seems like Carr has made a deal with the Devil to switch his 4th quarter performances with the 1st quarter.
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Old 10-08-2004   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOgre
He has been as abysmal in the 1st quarter this season as he was in the 4th quarter in the past. I said this a few weeks ago, it seems like Carr has made a deal with the Devil to switch his 4th quarter performances with the 1st quarter.
True, but he has been better in the 4th than he ever was, well ever. Rather have him finish strong than start strong and finish badly. The starting slow looks like something easily fixable.
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Old 10-08-2004   #15
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Here's something else in that link posted above that's interesting.

The Raiders have the second-most sacks (12) in the AFC, led by DE Tyler Brayton and LB Lawrence Grant (2 1/2)

Carr did not go down once during the game, and wasn't pressured near as much as he was in the first 3.

EDIT:

Also from Duane Cross @ SI.com

Minnesota at Houston
One more night, one more night
I've been trying ooh so long to let you know
Let you know how I feel
And if I stumble if I fall, just help me back
So I can make you see

If you're looking for an upset, this is a prime candidate. The Texans' offense is rounding into form, while the Vikings' defense is wobbly -- at best.
Texans 21, Vikings 17
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Old 10-08-2004   #16
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DC seems to like the 4th quarter and is improving all the time.
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Old 10-09-2004   #17
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I like the fact he get's better in the 4th. This is a big change from the last big name quarterback we had around here, especially during the playoffs.
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Old 10-09-2004   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DreamCatcher
DC seems to like the 4th quarter and is improving all the time.
That is one trait that all the greats have in common, they come through in the cluch,(BTW We have an awesome kicker- Downtown Brown). When people were doubting him, I told everybody to have patience and wait till the end of the year. Now hes making me look like a genius. It reminds me of what Terry Bradshaw said to one of his teamates when he was struggling early in his career. He told him "You may lose with me, but you won't win without me". I'm glad David is improving with each game, it makes me excited to see what will happen by the end of the season. This year has really been good so far, both David and AJ are off to a good start. I just wish I could say the same thing about DD. I had high expectations for him this year, oh well the season is still young. We have a offensive juggernaut in the making, if the oline can do what they did last week consistantly.
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Old 10-09-2004   #19
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Great to see Carrs improving performance in the 4th quarter. One thing that you always want in a QB is a clutch player. That's what makes Leftwich so good IMO. He's very average on paper, but he's a guy that makes plays when he has to.

I think the Kansas City game was a real showing of Carr being a clutch player. In the 2nd half, he replied to a KC toughdown with a TD of his own and really got us back into the game. And the drive to get the field goal was awsome.

It's nice that he's been stepping it up in the 4th, but has anyone else noticed he has not looked good in the 1st? It seems like he's kind of a slow starter. He'll look like **** in the first qtr and brilliant in the 2nd and 3rd.
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Old 10-09-2004   #20
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The 4th Quarter stats were surprising. Even with a slow start he's heading in the best direction. With some more Consistency other teams should beware of him.
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