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Old 01-30-2007   #1
gtexan02
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Default Should we pick safety in round 1?

Heres why:
Every safety over the past 5 years that has been drafted in the first round (except 1) is a starter on their respective team. Most of them are perennial game changers/pro bowl considerations/cornerstones of their defense. Based on the history, that means if the Texans pick a safety with their #8 pick (or trade into a later part of the first), we have almost a 90% chance to land not only a starter, but an instant impact game changer.

Here is the list of safeties in the 1st round:
Roy Williams
Troy Polamalu
Ed Reed
Sean Taylor
Thomas Davis
Michael Huff
Donte Whitner
Mike Rumph

With a team like the Texans, who have wasted a lot of valuable picks, it pays to take a sure bet. For some reason, the top rated safeties (best 1 or 2 guys) always seem to be scouted well. It would be great to draft someone with the knowledge that they will not bust. When you pay your 1st round guy the kind of money they are getting nowadays, its important not to mess up the pick.


Why we shouldnt?
Listed above are 7 great safeties in the NFL. There are 64 starting safeties. Obviously good safeties are found in other rounds, and we could no doubt get a serviceable guy in a later round.

Whats the verdict?
Picking DL, RBs, OT, CBs are risky picks. The players are tough to scout and tough to get, so people draft them early. Top rated safeties are a lock to do well. And when our greatest need is FS, and we have 2 top rated guys projecting to near our pick, I say we go for it and solidify that position for the next decade
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Old 01-30-2007   #2
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Default Re: Should we pick safety in round 1?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gtexan02 View Post
Heres why:
Every safety over the past 5 years that has been drafted in the first round (except 1) is a starter on their respective team. Most of them are perennial game changers/pro bowl considerations/cornerstones of their defense. Based on the history, that means if the Texans pick a safety with their #8 pick (or trade into a later part of the first), we have almost a 90% chance to land not only a starter, but an instant impact game changer.

Here is the list of safeties in the 1st round:
Roy Williams
Troy Polamalu
Ed Reed
Sean Taylor
Thomas Davis
Michael Huff
Donte Whitner
Mike Rumph

With a team like the Texans, who have wasted a lot of valuable picks, it pays to take a sure bet. For some reason, the top rated safeties (best 1 or 2 guys) always seem to be scouted well. It would be great to draft someone with the knowledge that they will not bust. When you pay your 1st round guy the kind of money they are getting nowadays, its important not to mess up the pick.


Why we shouldnt?
Listed above are 7 great safeties in the NFL. There are 64 starting safeties. Obviously good safeties are found in other rounds, and we could no doubt get a serviceable guy in a later round.

Whats the verdict?
Picking DL, RBs, OT, CBs are risky picks. The players are tough to scout and tough to get, so people draft them early. Top rated safeties are a lock to do well. And when our greatest need is FS, and we have 2 top rated guys projecting to near our pick, I say we go for it and solidify that position for the next decade

The problem is that the best FS in college football isn't eligable for this draft. Kenny Phillips can't declare until next year. There is not a stand out "elite" FS in this draft. Nelson is the closest, but not worth the #8 pick at this point. Landry never was, and still isn't. I like Nelson a little more than Merriwether, but I would rather spend our #8 on another impact player and get Merriwether in the second rather than draft Nelson at #8 and hope for an impact player later.
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Old 01-30-2007   #3
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Default Re: Should we pick safety in round 1?

Depending on who falls to us...or rather who doesn't fall to us. I'm not against the idea of drafting a FS like Nelson or maybe Landry. Half way through the season last year I wanted us to get Joe Thomas...and then after that I was very big on LaRon Landry for months. Reggie Nelson has emerged, at least to me, and may be better.

If our staff has say Reggie Nelson rated higher than Branch or Adams. And we're up to bat and they select Nelson at 8. It will be fine by me. If we trade down a few spots we may snag one but it may not be the guy the staff really really wants. They do it....I'm on board.
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Old 01-30-2007   #4
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Default Re: Should we pick safety in round 1?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan View Post
Depending on who falls to us...or rather who doesn't fall to us. I'm not against the idea of drafting a FS like Nelson or maybe Landry. Half way through the season last year I wanted us to get Joe Thomas...and then after that I was very big on LaRon Landry for months. Reggie Nelson has emerged, at least to me, and may be better.

If our staff has say Reggie Nelson rated higher than Branch or Adams. And we're up to bat and they select Nelson at 8. It will be fine by me. If we trade down a few spots we may snag one but it may not be the guy the staff really really wants. They do it....I'm on board.
I would take Adams at 8 over Nelson. I would take Nelson at 8 before Landry at 12. Nelson has emerged as the better FS, but he is still not the best one in college football. I also only give him a slight edge over Merriwether who is not expected to be a first rounder. Merriwether, a FS, played excellent man coverage on a 6'8 4.4 45in vert WR expected to go top 3 and the best WR prospect since Moss.
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Old 01-30-2007   #5
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Default Re: Should we pick safety in round 1?

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Originally Posted by YoungTexanFan View Post
I would take Adams at 8 over Nelson. I would take Nelson at 8 before Landry at 12. Nelson has emerged as the better FS, but he is still not the best one in college football. I also only give him a slight edge over Merriwether who is not expected to be a first rounder. Merriwether, a FS, played excellent man coverage on a 6'8 4.4 45in vert WR expected to go top 3 and the best WR prospect since Moss.
Nelson in the first round. Merriwether in the 2nd round. That would seem to clear up the Texans secondary issues somewhat. I don't know if they would do it, but neither Brown or Earl should be starting.
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Old 01-30-2007   #6
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Default Re: Should we pick safety in round 1?

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Originally Posted by TexanSam View Post
Nelson in the first round. Merriwether in the 2nd round. That would seem to clear up the Texans secondary issues somewhat. I don't know if they would do it, but neither Brown or Earl should be starting.
The Bills picked Whitner 1st, Simpson 4th, and look at the change it elicitedon their D/team
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Old 01-30-2007   #7
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Default Re: Should we pick safety in round 1?

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Originally Posted by gtexan02 View Post
The Bills picked Whitner 1st, Simpson 4th, and look at the change it elicitedon their D/team
They also chose Ashton Youbouty from Ohio State (also played here at Klein HS) in the 3rd I believe. I don't think he played much this season, but they definately have an up and coming secondary. I think the Texans will try to improve the secondary more through free agency though. That's just a gut feeling however.
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Old 01-30-2007   #8
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Default Re: Should we pick safety in round 1?

I would only consider it if Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Anderson, and Amobi Okoye were all off the board, and I would much prefer to do it after a trade down to the 11-15 range if we can get a decent offer in there, and even still there are other players in there that I would likely like better than Landry/Meriweather/Nelson. Meriweather is probably my favorite S in this draft, and I'm really hoping he falls to our 2nd round pick, but I don't know that he will.
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Old 01-31-2007   #9
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Default Re: Should we pick safety in round 1?

only if we can trade down. According to Mike Mayock, there are 9 DB's better than Nelson, so I definately wouldn't take Nelson at #8.
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Old 01-31-2007   #10
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Default Re: Should we pick safety in round 1?

I was on the Landry/Nelson bandwagon for awhile last year near the end of the season. Now I kinda hope we shore up the Safety position in FA and maybe go after Lewis and/or Hamlin. The only way I would go after a Safety in the 1st round is if we trade down and we weren't able to sign one in FA.

My hope now is to get Levi Brown or Okoye in the 1st, but this could/will change by draft time!
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