Interesting Offense and Defense Numbers.

[Ole Miss Texan]

Found this interesting on espn when I was looking at our history.


- Record PF PA
2006: 6-10 267 366
2005: 2-14 260 431
2004: 7- 9 309 339
2003: 5-11 255 380
2002: 4-12 213 356

There are a few points I take from this.

1)Obviously our best season was 04. We had most points for and least points against.
2)Last season we only scored 7 more points than we did the previous season. That isn't the improvement we're looking for.
3)Last season points against us were 65 less than previous year. That is good improvement.

Now I don't know the points that are counted for us...that our defense got through pics/fumle recoveries. And I don't know the points against us from int/fumble returns. Also not known is return TD's.

It sure looks to me that our offense didn't improve very much as far as points go. And in my mind that is the most important thing...we need more points.

Kubiak has said 1) we need to consistently get pressure on the QB by our DLine. and 2) we need playmakers and a consistent run game.

Everyone is going to take that how they want to and both have extremely valid arguements of which will indeed make our team better.

I just see that scoring only 7 points more than last year is unacceptable. I think our O-line will be better but not great...just incrementally better from getting used to the system and practicing and buying into the system. Dayne had a few great games...but nobody can make an arguement that our Rb's are starters. If AP falls to us..I see the combo of him and Dayne being really good.

1-a more consistent running game
2-control the clock
3-more 1st downs/less 3 and outs
4-better use of the play action pass
5-threat of a big play/run
6-better field position for defense
7-more time for our defense to rest
8-fresher D to stop opponent
9-consiquently better field position for offense

if there is anything else yall think of help me out...but i like this plan.

[Texian]

How do these numbers factor in to your analysis:

With the addition of a healthy AP playing 16 full games a yr and putting the ball in AP's hands 20 times a game, 320 times a year and using the productivity of the last years Oline play, projecting an aggressive 4.2 ypc for AP is 84 yds per game/1344 yds per yr.

Based on last years numbers, the other backs would get 7 rushing attemps per game or 111 yds a yr at 3.9 ypc is 28 yds per game/433 yds per year. AP's 1344 total yds and the other backs 433 yds comes to 1777 yds per yr. The Texans rushed for 1687 yds last year.

AP would have given you 5 or 6 yds more per game or 90 additional yds for the year.

Now if you going to say the Oline will be better, which I hope it is, it will also be better for the other backs. If you going to say AP will get better ypc than 4.2, keep in mind that Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Deuce McCallister and Tatum Bell all avg 4.4 yds per carry. If you want to project 4.8 ypc for AP, thats 1536 yds per year or additional 282 yds to last years total or 17-18 ypg more.

I can understand why Kubiak shys away from RBs in the 1st RD.
FYI - The Edge's first year in Arizona, he had a worse rushing average than the Texans.

[Ole Miss Texan]

Originally Posted by Texian

How do these numbers factor in to your analysis:

With the addition of a healthy AP playing 16 full games a yr and putting the ball in AP's hands 20 times a game, 320 times a year and using the productivity of the last years Oline play, projecting an aggressive 4.2 ypc for AP is 84 yds per game/1344 yds per yr.

Based on last years numbers, the other backs would get 7 rushing attemps per game or 111 yds a yr at 3.9 ypc is 28 yds per game/433 yds per year. AP's 1344 total yds and the other backs 433 yds comes to 1777 yds per yr. The Texans rushed for 1687 yds last year.

AP would have given you 5 or 6 yds more per game or 90 additional yds for the year.

Now if you going to say the Oline will be better, which I hope it is, it will also be better for the other backs. If you going to say AP will get better ypc than 4.2, keep in mind that Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Deuce McCallister and Tatum Bell all avg 4.4 yds per carry. If you want to project 4.8 ypc for AP, thats 1536 yds per year or additional 282 yds to last years total or 17-18 ypg more.

I can understand why Kubiak shys away from RBs in the 1st RD.
FYI - The Edge's first year in Arizona, he had a worse rushing average than the Texans.

Yea I remember reading this.

[gtexan02]

Originally Posted by Texian

How do these numbers factor in to your analysis:

With the addition of a healthy AP playing 16 full games a yr and putting the ball in AP's hands 20 times a game, 320 times a year and using the productivity of the last years Oline play, projecting an aggressive 4.2 ypc for AP is 84 yds per game/1344 yds per yr.

Based on last years numbers, the other backs would get 7 rushing attemps per game or 111 yds a yr at 3.9 ypc is 28 yds per game/433 yds per year. AP's 1344 total yds and the other backs 433 yds comes to 1777 yds per yr. The Texans rushed for 1687 yds last year.

AP would have given you 5 or 6 yds more per game or 90 additional yds for the year.

Now if you going to say the Oline will be better, which I hope it is, it will also be better for the other backs. If you going to say AP will get better ypc than 4.2, keep in mind that Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Deuce McCallister and Tatum Bell all avg 4.4 yds per carry. If you want to project 4.8 ypc for AP, thats 1536 yds per year or additional 282 yds to last years total or 17-18 ypg more.

I can understand why Kubiak shys away from RBs in the 1st RD.
FYI - The Edge's first year in Arizona, he had a worse rushing average than the Texans.

This isn't really telling the whole story. Most NFL running backs are good for about 1-4 yards on any given running play. The really good ones mix in a few 5-8 yarders, a few 10-20 yarders, and a rarer few 20+ yarders. While our trio was consistently racking up 1-4 yards, we only broke out 7 runs of 20 or longer yards. Our #1 guy on the year, Dayne, is anything but a "gamebreaker." As such, our rushing offense never had truly game changing potential.

Bringing in a back with the ability to earn the 1-4 yarders every play, but with the added bonus of being able to break the long one every run, thus netting us huge chunks of field position at a time, would be a big differnece, imo.

[Ole Miss Texan]

Ron Dayne= 5 Rushing TD's 4.1 yd/carry avg
Wali Lundy= 4 Rushing TD's 3.8 yd/carry avg
Chris Taylor= 1 Rushing TD 4.0 yd/carry avg
Samkon Gado= 1 Rushing TD: 4.4 yd/carry avg

That's 11 touchdowns from our running backs by commitee...and they have decent yards per carry.

28 running backs last season had more rushing td's than ron dayne...our leader.

8 running backs last season had more rushing td's than our running back by comittee.

Now I'm not against having multiple running backs. I just refuse to believe AP wouldn't do very much for us. It's hard to project how many TD's he would score next season but i would think it'd be more than 6 (reggie bush's rushing td's). I think having a true starting running back is important. then have Dayne and Taylor to help out as well and lighten the load for AP.

[Texian]

Originally Posted by gtexan02

This isn't really telling the whole story. Most NFL running backs are good for about 1-4 yards on any given running play. The really good ones mix in a few 5-8 yarders, a few 10-20 yarders, and a rarer few 20+ yarders. While our trio was consistently racking up 1-4 yards, we only broke out 7 runs of 20 or longer yards. Our #1 guy on the year, Dayne, is anything but a "gamebreaker." As such, our rushing offense never had truly game changing potential.

Bringing in a back with the ability to earn the 1-4 yarders every play, but with the added bonus of being able to break the long one every run, thus netting us huge chunks of field position at a time, would be a big differnece, imo.

Even if you factor in the 4.8 ypc that factors in the longer runs and is a yard more than the Texans avg. 4.8 ypc behind the current line is border line fantasy. Even so that would have only given the Texans 1969 total rushing yards. Do really think AP is going to out rush Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Duece McAllister and Tatum Bell running behind the current Texans OLine?

[Texian]

Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan

Ron Dayne= 5 Rushing TD's 4.1 yd/carry avg
Wali Lundy= 4 Rushing TD's 3.8 yd/carry avg
Chris Taylor= 1 Rushing TD 4.0 yd/carry avg
Samkon Gado= 1 Rushing TD: 4.4 yd/carry avg

That's 11 touchdowns from our running backs by commitee...and they have decent yards per carry.

28 running backs last season had more rushing td's than ron dayne...our leader.

8 running backs last season had more rushing td's than our running back by comittee.

Now I'm not against having multiple running backs. I just refuse to believe AP wouldn't do very much for us. It's hard to project how many TD's he would score next season but i would think it'd be more than 6 (reggie bush's rushing td's). I think having a true starting running back is important. then have Dayne and Taylor to help out as well and lighten the load for AP.

Your point is well taken and is a much better argument for improving the OLine or and at least getting (3) of them healthy.

[Ole Miss Texan]

Originally Posted by Texian

Your point is well taken and is a much better argument for improving the OLine or and at least getting (3) of them healthy.

yea at least 3 healthy and 3 new....i like the ugoh pick in the 2nd you have. another through free agency would be nice like steinbach and then maybe another denver cast off.

[GNTLEWOLF]

Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan

yea at least 3 healthy and 3 new....i like the ugoh pick in the 2nd you have. another through free agency would be nice like steinbach and then maybe another denver cast off.

I'm curious.... If the Texans want to become a real contender..... Why do we want Denver Cast-offs (i.e. players not good enough to be on Denver's roster)? Seems to me, in order to compete, we need guys that other teams that are competitive would die for; rather than us take their trash.

[Ole Miss Texan]

Originally Posted by GNTLEWOLF

I'm curious.... If the Texans want to become a real contender..... Why do we want Denver Cast-offs (i.e. players not good enough to be on Denver's roster)? Seems to me, in order to compete, we need guys that other teams that are competitive would die for; rather than us take their trash.

Oh I definitly agree we need guys that other teams would die for. i'd love to get to the point where Denver starts getting some of the guys we cut.

The truth of the matter is that every player we get can't be an elite player. I think Denver is a good place to get players here and there...esp. offensive line. They know the system (unless the reason they were released was because they didn't!). Now if we consistently get players from other teams when they cut them to be our starters, we will always be at the bottom of the nfl and picking high in the draft. i don't think we have very much depth at oline by any means. We need these guys to help our young guys develop. Thats my two cents.

Look at the players we had this season that we picked up off the street...salaam, dayne, maddox, von hutchins...among others. soon to be plummer!? who knows. I think our staff has done a decent job of getting guys from no where to come in and back up our guys....sadly with the injuries these guys turn into starters for us. Sometimes we have no better options...

[Carr Bombed]

Originally Posted by Texian

Do really think AP is going to out rush Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Duece McAllister and Tatum Bell running behind the current Texans OLine?

Why not, our line opens holes for the backs we have now, just because AP might not come in and out rush those guys in his first year doesn't mean he won't later. Later on he could be a major playmaker, a top 5 back in the league.

[TexanSam]

Geez...it's kind of said that our 2nd best defensive year was our first year in the league.

[The Pencil Neck]

Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan

Found this interesting on espn when I was looking at our history.


- Record PF PA
2006: 6-10 267 366
2005: 2-14 260 431
2004: 7- 9 309 339
2003: 5-11 255 380
2002: 4-12 213 356

There are a few points I take from this.

1)Obviously our best season was 04. We had most points for and least points against.
2)Last season we only scored 7 more points than we did the previous season. That isn't the improvement we're looking for.
3)Last season points against us were 65 less than previous year. That is good improvement.

Another thing you might want to consider is that we gave up a ton of points in the first 3 games. During those first 3-4 games, we were all down on the defense because we were setting records in futility. But by the end of the year, our defense was really stepping up. That's why we won 6 games instead of 2 games even though we only scored 7 more points.

With a couple more pieces, our defense could be really good and I think that was Kubiak's first priority. And I'm all for that.

With more production from the offense, our defense will look even better. There were times this year when we were able to put together some long yardage eating drives. But many of those drives came up empty because of turnovers and boneheaded plays. If we improve the offense a bit, we could be good. If we had a RB that could more consistently get yardage when we need it and/or if we had a QB that made better decisions with the ball, we could have a team to reckon with.

I can't wait for next year.

[NATHANHALE]

I agree with several other posters that our defense showed 'signs of life' for most of the year,and has the potential to get even better with help in the LB/DB group. The team has invested a lot in the DL with 3 1st rounders in Babin/Johnson/ and Williams plus others including Peek and Weaver. TJ showed signs of life before he was injured and Maddox had some moments and-though we need more sacks-we were just a 'step' away many times.

The offense, however, is a different story. Like many other fans, I thought bringing in Kubiak would translate to immediate improvement in the OF, but it just didn't happen. IMO, another poster made a good point that-at times-Gary seems to hold back parts of his offense because of mistakes made by players that he doesn't think they should be making. This was obvious with our lack of a vertical passing game...

JMO, but I don't agree with holding back or 'dumb downing' the playbook/game plan to minimize mistakes. To me, this takes away our aggression and significantly reduces our chances to score points, a 'critical' problem for our team since day one. And, most of the time, we're only talking about 1 or maybe 2 players. "Best players play," Kubiak said. Personally, I don't see his point in keeping a player on the field that is not able to execute the game plan-either replace him or make him get it 'right.'

If Kubiak is a) going to simplify the game plan and limit the teams ability to score, then b) what is his thinking long term?

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan

1-a more consistent running game
2-control the clock
3-more 1st downs/less 3 and outs
4-better use of the play action pass
5-threat of a big play/run
6-better field position for defense
7-more time for our defense to rest
8-fresher D to stop opponent
9-consiquently better field position for offense

if there is anything else yall think of help me out...but i like this plan.

The biggest problem with our running game has been the piss-poor job of the offensive line. Health issues were a problem, but not in the way most people are thinking. The only one that hurt our running game when he got hurt, was Weigart. That man can move a pile. We compensated for that by pulling Pitts on runs to the right.

Winston isn't bad.... he's just not as good on running plays. He's about the same on passing plays, & I don't see Weigart replacing him in the starting lineup.

Flanagan was the worst Center that started for us. HogDon was better, but he didn't move the pile the way McKinney does. I didn't like McKinney @ Center in '05, but with Weary taking his spot(& doing a much better job in pass protection & run blocking) I guess he figured he'd better be the best Center on the team if he wants to stick around.

Pitts was Pitts.... Physically, you couldn't ask for anything better. But he makes a lot of mental mistakes.... not so far as penalties go, but at times, I've seen him chase his "man" around the field, stay on his blocks too long, and not get to the second level, miss the chip shots he's supposed to make to give his teammates the advantage, and so on. I have no doubt year two in this system will be much improved.

Spencer.... Wand was a much better player. Spencer might have had all the tools, and could possibly be a better LT one day, but this past September, Wand was the better player. He should've been the starter, with Spencer coming in later in the year, and Ephraim playing the one or two games a year that he's good for.

All that said, the injuries did hurt us, because just when it looked like the team was getting it, and ready to take the next step. Someone would get hurt. You'd think that one spot would be the one that needs to improve, but not with these guys. Things changed a bit with each new player.... things changed a lot when we starting pulling Chester around the right end... but every spot on the line looked as if they were starting from square one, from one week to the next.

As far as AD being that extra spark we need to get this offense jump-started..... maybe. He fits the mold for what needs to be done in the NFL more than YKW, at the same time, guys like Maroney & Addai stayed under the radar last April, and Adai (29th overall I think) has been a big part of the Colts play-off run, and play-off success. & there was hardly a week gone by without a Laurence Maroney highlight.

point being AD may not be the best running back in this class.

I'm thinking he will be. I'm thinking he'll make an immediate impact. I'm thinking he'll do great things on this team.. I'm thinking it would be nice if we take him @ the #8 spot.

But if we don't.... I think our running game is going to be fine. Ron Dayne Ran against Indy & Washington just as well as he ran at the end of the year. Kubiak screwed the pooch, and gave up on the running game. We looked as if we were going to get blown out, and he choked, tried to "win" the game, and we ended up getting blown out. Same thing in Philly, when Lundy & Vernand were doing pretty well. If you look at their stats from the game, it will look like the sucked. But if you go back & read the game threads, you'll see they played pretty well, but Kubiak didn't give them a chance to get going. Usually when a running back fumbles, the coach sticks the ball right back in their hands. but not Kubiak. Wali fumbled that one time in Indy, and we didn't see him for 6 weeks.

I think Kubiak should have been more focused on executing our offensive game plan. Forget the dang score...... let's learn how to play football. Everything is based on our ability to run the ball, how can you give up when were only down less than three scores before the half.

We would go three & out because of our "efficient" passing game, then put our young defense on the field against thos high powered offenses.......... what else would you expect?? Our running game had not failed to get us a first down those first three games other than one play, & I think that was a 3rd & 17.

Against Miami, & Dallas...... that was different. those were some really good run stoping teams. however, we didn't give up on the run in Miami, and came away with a victory.

So, while I'd like to get Peterson..... I really haven't made up my mind on what I'd do with that #8 pick. I don't see much difference between Peterson & ChrisTaylor to tell you the truth, and I'd bet Wali is going to have a pretty good sophomore season. Especially if we continue to use Dayne to soften up the defenses. So I wouldn't be too upset if we pass on All-Day and get the best Defensive player or offensive lineman(Levi Brown) at that spot.

[amazingandre]

Originally Posted by Ole Miss Texan

Oh I definitly agree we need guys that other teams would die for. i'd love to get to the point where Denver starts getting some of the guys we cut.

The truth of the matter is that every player we get can't be an elite player. I think Denver is a good place to get players here and there...esp. offensive line. They know the system (unless the reason they were released was because they didn't!). Now if we consistently get players from other teams when they cut them to be our starters, we will always be at the bottom of the nfl and picking high in the draft. i don't think we have very much depth at oline by any means. We need these guys to help our young guys develop. Thats my two cents.

Look at the players we had this season that we picked up off the street...salaam, dayne, maddox, von hutchins...among others. soon to be plummer!? who knows. I think our staff has done a decent job of getting guys from no where to come in and back up our guys....sadly with the injuries these guys turn into starters for us. Sometimes we have no better options...

ya but you cant only say that because some of the guys cant be afforded by their current teams....or like in plummer's case they got a rookie which will be the new franchise qb....plummer is older (not quite old enough to retire he still has some years left) so they went with fresh and new......plus jake doesn't want to be a backup to anybody....noone does....ala michael lewis from the eagles.....he wont resign he wants a starting job...so there are more than just the guys who couldnt cut it on the team as a starter cuz they suck...you know

[TheCD]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

The biggest problem with our running game has been the piss-poor job of the offensive line. Health issues were a problem, but not in the way most people are thinking. The only one that hurt our running game when he got hurt, was Weigart. That man can move a pile. We compensated for that by pulling Pitts on runs to the right.

Winston isn't bad.... he's just not as good on running plays. He's about the same on passing plays, & I don't see Weigart replacing him in the starting lineup.

Flanagan was the worst Center that started for us. HogDon was better, but he didn't move the pile the way McKinney does. I didn't like McKinney @ Center in '05, but with Weary taking his spot(& doing a much better job in pass protection & run blocking) I guess he figured he'd better be the best Center on the team if he wants to stick around.

Pitts was Pitts.... Physically, you couldn't ask for anything better. But he makes a lot of mental mistakes.... not so far as penalties go, but at times, I've seen him chase his "man" around the field, stay on his blocks too long, and not get to the second level, miss the chip shots he's supposed to make to give his teammates the advantage, and so on. I have no doubt year two in this system will be much improved.

Spencer.... Wand was a much better player. Spencer might have had all the tools, and could possibly be a better LT one day, but this past September, Wand was the better player. He should've been the starter, with Spencer coming in later in the year, and Ephraim playing the one or two games a year that he's good for.

All that said, the injuries did hurt us, because just when it looked like the team was getting it, and ready to take the next step. Someone would get hurt. You'd think that one spot would be the one that needs to improve, but not with these guys. Things changed a bit with each new player.... things changed a lot when we starting pulling Chester around the right end... but every spot on the line looked as if they were starting from square one, from one week to the next.

As far as AD being that extra spark we need to get this offense jump-started..... maybe. He fits the mold for what needs to be done in the NFL more than YKW, at the same time, guys like Maroney & Addai stayed under the radar last April, and Adai (29th overall I think) has been a big part of the Colts play-off run, and play-off success. & there was hardly a week gone by without a Laurence Maroney highlight.

point being AD may not be the best running back in this class.

I'm thinking he will be. I'm thinking he'll make an immediate impact. I'm thinking he'll do great things on this team.. I'm thinking it would be nice if we take him @ the #8 spot.

But if we don't.... I think our running game is going to be fine. Ron Dayne Ran against Indy & Washington just as well as he ran at the end of the year. Kubiak screwed the pooch, and gave up on the running game. We looked as if we were going to get blown out, and he choked, tried to "win" the game, and we ended up getting blown out. Same thing in Philly, when Lundy & Vernand were doing pretty well. If you look at their stats from the game, it will look like the sucked. But if you go back & read the game threads, you'll see they played pretty well, but Kubiak didn't give them a chance to get going. Usually when a running back fumbles, the coach sticks the ball right back in their hands. but not Kubiak. Wali fumbled that one time in Indy, and we didn't see him for 6 weeks.

I think Kubiak should have been more focused on executing our offensive game plan. Forget the dang score...... let's learn how to play football. Everything is based on our ability to run the ball, how can you give up when were only down less than three scores before the half.

We would go three & out because of our "efficient" passing game, then put our young defense on the field against thos high powered offenses.......... what else would you expect?? Our running game had not failed to get us a first down those first three games other than one play, & I think that was a 3rd & 17.

Against Miami, & Dallas...... that was different. those were some really good run stoping teams. however, we didn't give up on the run in Miami, and came away with a victory.

So, while I'd like to get Peterson..... I really haven't made up my mind on what I'd do with that #8 pick. I don't see much difference between Peterson & ChrisTaylor to tell you the truth, and I'd bet Wali is going to have a pretty good sophomore season. Especially if we continue to use Dayne to soften up the defenses. So I wouldn't be too upset if we pass on All-Day and get the best Defensive player or offensive lineman(Levi Brown) at that spot.

I agree with you whole-heartedly here, Thunder. While I'm starting to come around to an offensive pick, I'm really uncomfortable with drafting a running back in the 1st and only using him in a RBBC scenario. I still think we need a DB/DL and pick up one of the high-profile LB's in FA...but I also know that's a bit of a long shot as well.

To tell you the truth...I'm almost to the point where I wouldn't mind us picking up nothing but OL in the offseason and just weeding out the ones that don't fit

[Texans Horror]

I think Spencer will be a vast improvement over Salaam. I think Winston is a definite improvement over Weigert. I think having the Weary/McKinney at guard position worked out will make for a better, more cohesive line. A new Center, hopefully one of the top centers in the draft, will do much for the line.

Injuries did a lot to hurt the Texans. I think the line will function more appropriately with a consistent and more talented stable.

A big problem last season was that in Kubiak's scheme, the run game has to be established first, and last year nobody could run. For the most part, when the Texans could run, they won. Next season, with better depth at running back (Peterson, Williams, Dayne), the running offense can be established early, which should break open the passing game.

IMO the defensive side is better put-together at this point and has less holes. I look to the improvements indicated in the stats above as evidence. The defensive ends are set. Defensive tackle is probably going to be given one more year to develop, though I think a new DT would be a great boon. Linebacker, Safety, and Corner are the main concerns on defense.

[Hervoyel]

I consistently see people advocating wholesale change on our offensive line. In short, they're nuts. You replace 3 starters on your offensive line every season that you don't get the results you want and you're going to be looking at decades of suck there.

Get a center that can be depended upon and can pull his weight. Leave the guards alone and let them play another year. Bring Winston back and let him keep on playing and getting better. If you can get Spencer back healthy and he can still get it done then great but have a real plan ready just in case.

At the most replace two guys on the line and preferably only one.

[TexanAddict]

Originally Posted by Hervoyel

I consistently see people advocating wholesale change on our offensive line. In short, they're nuts. You replace 3 starters on your offensive line every season that you don't get the results you want and you're going to be looking at decades of suck there.

Get a center that can be depended upon and can pull his weight. Leave the guards alone and let them play another year. Bring Winston back and let him keep on playing and getting better. If you can get Spencer back healthy and he can still get it done then great but have a real plan ready just in case.

At the most replace two guys on the line and preferably only one.

Sorry gotta spread some rep around, but good post, I feel the same way.