Overthinking Peterson

[Dr. Toro]

I think there's a certain amount of overthinking with respect to Adrian Peterson by people on this board... to me, it's rather simple; he'd definitely be the BPA at #8 and is a fantastic fit for this system and the team's needs. But since it doesn't seem to be so simple to others, let's break it down and provide a little context:

Last year, I was opposed to drafting Bush #1 due to concerns about

1) durability and fit as an every down back
2) value at the pick
3) value of the contract/production

As it turns out, Bush wasn't terribly productive as a RB, was an exceptional all around threat/playmaker, and likely not worth $60 million or his $26mm gtd. All the logic about marginal utility of Bush and the Denver system producing rushers was sound with respect to a #1 pick and corresponding contract was solid.

That logic fails when applied to Peterson and the #8 pick however. Peterson is a prototypical Denver style back, one cut, punishing, breakaway threat. He will carry the load and take it to the house. He is every bit the talent that Bush was, but some health issues have beaten his stock down to our range. He'll be available for roughly $15mm guaranteed. He'd be ours for 5 or 6 years and a max of about $30 mm. To pass on him with one of the weakest backfields in football would be almost as foolish as various other Casserly-era draft debacles. Take a look at the contracts in the 2006 draft.

2006 contracts, picks #6-9:

#6 Vernon Davis TE SF: 5 yrs. 23mm, 15 guaranteed (est.)
#7 Michael Huff S OAK: 7 yrs. 22.5mm, 15 guaranteed
#8 Donte Whitner CB Buf: 5 yrs. 29mm, 14 guaranteed (est.)
#9 Ernie Sims LB DET: 5 yrs, 20 mm, 12 guaranteed

In raw football terms, Peterson is the type of running back prospect that comes around every five years or so. The injuries are a legitimate concern, but the early entry/games missed limited him to 747 career carries. In college, Ricky Williams had about 1000 carries and Tomlinson had 900. If Peterson can be had at the #8 pick and a pretty reasonable contract... why in the world not? You'll never make a risk free decision, trying to do so will riddle your roster with average players.

[kastofsna]

yup, all very good points. you'd get a better player for your team than reggie bush for half the price.......seems pretty cut and dry to me.

[David's Busted Carr]

Best player at #8? If he didn't have durability concerns he'd be the top player in the draft. In fact with a good combine he still might be.

[Ole Miss Texan]

Originally Posted by Dr. Toro

I think there's a certain amount of overthinking with respect to Adrian Peterson by people on this board... to me, it's rather simple; he'd definitely be the BPA at #8 and is a fantastic fit for this system and the team's needs. But since it doesn't seem to be so simple to others, let's break it down and provide a little context:

Last year, I was opposed to drafting Bush #1 due to concerns about

1) durability and fit as an every down back
2) value at the pick
3) value of the contract/production

As it turns out, Bush wasn't terribly productive as a RB, was an exceptional all around threat/playmaker, and likely not worth $60 million or his $26mm gtd. All the logic about marginal utility of Bush and the Denver system producing rushers was sound with respect to a #1 pick and corresponding contract was solid.

That logic fails when applied to Peterson and the #8 pick however. Peterson is a prototypical Denver style back, one cut, punishing, breakaway threat. He will carry the load and take it to the house. He is every bit the talent that Bush was, but some health issues have beaten his stock down to our range. He'll be available for roughly $15mm guaranteed. He'd be ours for 5 or 6 years and a max of about $30 mm. To pass on him with one of the weakest backfields in football would be almost as foolish as various other Casserly-era draft debacles. Take a look at the contracts in the 2006 draft.

2006 contracts, picks #6-9:

#6 Vernon Davis TE SF: 5 yrs. 23mm, 15 guaranteed (est.)
#7 Michael Huff S OAK: 7 yrs. 22.5mm, 15 guaranteed
#8 Donte Whitner CB Buf: 5 yrs. 29mm, 14 guaranteed (est.)
#9 Ernie Sims LB DET: 5 yrs, 20 mm, 12 guaranteed

In raw football terms, Peterson is the type of running back prospect that comes around every five years or so. The injuries are a legitimate concern, but the early entry/games missed limited him to 747 career carries. In college, Ricky Williams had about 1000 carries and Tomlinson had 900. If Peterson can be had at the #8 pick and a pretty reasonable contract... why in the world not? You'll never make a risk free decision, trying to do so will riddle your roster with average players.

I'd love to have Peterson in our backfield for sure but at the same time I really want to have a punishing defense and we can easily pick that up with the 1st pick....but....

when you put it like that, I don't know what the hell i was think and why we would pass on peterson! great post and good points.

[Please_Evolve]

I don't think most people would oopose AP at all...if he fell to us at 8 and we took him i don't think you'd hear more then the ocassional grumble if someone else pans out better then him for their respective position.

I think most of the people who aren't high on the idea of Peterson is the number of holes elsewhere on this team and while you might chide the backfield for being one of the weakest nothing will get better til we legitemately take care of the Oline. A lot is riding on the knee of Spencer and i am hoping he'll be back next year ready to go and close to it once preseason starts.I think Levi Brown helped his stock a lot with the senoir bowl performance and while he might not be the supposed franchise tackle that people are clamoring for...sorry your Ogden and Pace's don't come around that often. I just want a solid, athletic line so our QB whomever it might be has time to throw the ball and the RB's have good lanes to run through. Oh yeah and sorry no we don't really have the depth or luxury to take linemen always in the later rounds. We just aren't there yet and that's ok these things take time. Sorry i know as fans we've waited long enough but i think next year Kubiak will have the gloves taken off and we'll see what is in store during FA and how that will dictate our draft. IF some glaring needs are shored up via free agency and we at least feel somewhat good about our oline i think those of us who have our hesitances to draft AP will welcome him with open arms.

Though i am sorry to see this trend to start developing it looks like....the NFL is not like the NBA where ONE player can make a HUGE difference in a year. He might make an impact at his respective position but one player alone will not turn the fortunes of a franchise around. He might be something to build on or a centerpiece for offense or defense. IMO

[kastofsna]

Originally Posted by David's Busted Carr

Best player at #8? If he didn't have durability concerns he'd be the top player in the draft. In fact with a good combine he still might be.

i seriously doubt he shows up at the combine.

[K.D.]

Great post. Peterson is the ideal back of this draft and for the texans. His name and reputation alone will make defenses have to respect our run game & just think about the play-action with him involved, AJ across the middle wide-ass open. I'm just sitting back and hoping that AP falls to us, if he didn't it wouldn't be the end of the road but with him the threat is ALWAYS present unlike what we went thru this year. My other concern is what other player would be the 2nd best option at #8 if AP isn't there. IMO i think it's Okyole,L.Brown,J.Anderson, maybe Nelson and Adams.

[HoustonFrog]

I definitely don't have a problem with AP and I think his injuries were freak type problems. My main concern is overall wear and tear. Being the talent he was he ran a ton in high school. Add that to the fact that he was Oklahomas offense when playing. I just hope he can still be fresh for a good set of years considering the pounding he has taken. I felt the same way about Benson coming out and AP is alot better than Benson in my book. I think at #8 it would be hard no to take him.

[Meloy]

Good thread. I voiced Joe Thomas as the season was ending but as we fell further from a high pick, I see Thomas gone. As I posted elsewhere, AP could be a franchise type back for Texans. I think your salary projections are on the money. Few teams would turn down a franchise back. His selection would also strengthen the O line, Carr, the receivers and the other backs. Our offense is set up to carry 4 backs. I see AP, Dayne & then Lundy, Taylor and Gado fighting to make the final 2 spots. Dayne's rushes will be reduced and he will become even more valuable as that power back for short & first or in the red zone. When you get within 20 of goal, imo the back or a TE should get the call. I am ok with AJ fighting in the end zone for a td receptions but 3 things can happen on a pass (says Darrell Royal) and 2 are bad. With our load of backs rotating all season, AP should do just fine..

[Texian]

Yep, AP will do for the Texans what Edge did for Arizona.

[Tailgate]

Originally Posted by Texian

Yep, AP will do for the Texans what Edge did for Arizona.

If Ron Dayne of all people can have the best stint of his career behind a line that was missing 3 starters,etc... I think that AP would definitely stand a chance of having a serious impact if he falls to us. I also think that we wont stand pat with our current line either.

[Meloy]

Originally Posted by Texian

Yep, AP will do for the Texans what Edge did for Arizona.

I was hoping to select a QB prospect in 2nd whether Carr remains or not as he will be in 6th season this year. We need to start thinking about a longterm replacement even if Carr does what I hope and plays the next two years at a good clip. I have not been awed reading about Kolb, Smith or any of the other possibilities in 2nd & not interested in any QB free agents. If we can land a good CB in F/a that alone will greatly solidify the defense. Even if Spencer returns & Winston wins the RT starter role, I see the need for another option sitting on bench. Therefore OT @ 3rd round.

[Texian]

Originally Posted by Meloy

I was hoping to select a QB prospect in 2nd whether Carr remains or not as he will be in 6th season this year. We need to start thinking about a longterm replacement even if Carr does what I hope and plays the next two years at a good clip. I have not been awed reading about Kolb, Smith or any of the other possibilities in 2nd & not interested in any QB free agents. If we can land a good CB in F/a that alone will greatly solidify the defense. Even if Spencer returns & Winston wins the RT starter role, I see the need for another option sitting on bench. Therefore OT @ 3rd round.

The Texans lost their best opportunity when Brohm returned to school. After Russell and Quinn the QB ranks really thin out. You will be lucky to find a good backup. FA offers are not much better.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Dr. Toro

I think there's a certain amount of overthinking with respect to Adrian Peterson by people on this board... to me, it's rather simple; he'd definitely be the BPA at #8 and is a fantastic fit for this system and the team's needs. But since it doesn't seem to be so simple to others, let's break it down and provide a little context:

C'mon Toro, that's a totally premature and irrelavant claim !
Assuming AD is on the Board when (and if) the Texans pick at #8, you can't
possible know if he'd be the BPA without knowing what other palyers remained
on the Board. And really more to the point, your definition of the BPA at that point in time would be irrelavent. What would be relavant is how the Texans would rank AD as compared to the other players (whoever they maybe), that
remained on the Board.

[Texian]

If the Texans passed on Reggie Bush (the next Barry Sanders), what makes some people think they wouldn't pass on Adrian Peterson? Bush had much more hype than Peterson is getting. Many assume that the Texans will right their mistake. Just because ESPN, the Chronicle, 30 MB posters think the Texans made a mistake doesn't make it so. Sorry, the Texans are more committed today that they made the right pick last year, than they were 9 months ago. If you don't believe me ask them. If the Texans think a pass rush is a higher priority than a RB then they won't take a RB. If the Texans think improving the OLine is the key to improving the running game and a higher priority than a RB they won't take RB.

[Dr. Toro]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

C'mon Toro, that's a totally premature and irrelavant claim !
Assuming AD is on the Board when (and if) the Texans pick at #8, you can't
possible know if he'd be the BPA without knowing what other palyers remained
on the Board. And really more to the point, your definition of the BPA at that point in time would be irrelavent. What would be relavant is how the Texans would rank AD as compared to the other players (whoever they maybe), that
remained on the Board.

There definitely aren't 7 better players in the draft... and yes, my definition of the BPA isn't as important as the Texans... not sure what your point is. Speaking objectively, I can see pretty easily that Peterson is a fine back and a good fit for the offense.

[Meloy]

Originally Posted by Texian

If the Texans passed on Reggie Bush (the next Barry Sanders), what makes some people think they wouldn't pass on Adrian Peterson? Bush had much more hype than Peterson. Many assume that the Texans will right their mistake. Just because ESPN, the Chronicle, 30 MB posters think the Texans made a mistake doesn't make it so. Sorry, the Texans are more committed today that they made the right pick last year, than they were 9 months ago. If you don't believe me ask them. If the Texans think a pass rush is a higher priority than a RB then they won't take a RB. If the Texans think improving the OLine is the key to improving the running game and a higher priority than a RB they won't take RB.

Bush was passed on because 1) DD was expected back sometime in the season 2) The theory that Kubes could slot any back in the Denver style offense and get 1,000 yards 3) we needed a legitimate sacker & the signing of Weaver made Mario look even better for that role. Now 1) DDW will not be back (at least as we knew him) 2) that theory went down like Tito Ortiz against Chuck Liddel. 3)Mario will be a significant force & the Dline will be healthy and not need anyone selected in top 3 rounds. Therefore, as Thomas not projected to be at 8 and Peterson possibly there, you go with what could be a franchise type back for H town. You then decide on a QB to replace Carr (sooner or later) and an Left OT. C/B in F/A !

[Texian]

Originally Posted by Meloy

3)Mario will be a significant force & the Dline will be healthy and not need anyone selected in top 3 rounds.

OK then, I will just leave you with this 01/01/07 Kubiak quote:

(on fulfilling the need for pass rushers) “There’s no doubt, we’ve got to find a way to put some pressure on some people. We played a group yesterday that was missing a couple of guards and (defensive coordinator) Richard (Smith) dialed up plenty of zone gods trying to create pressure and that is one glaring thing that I’ve been looking at this morning, comparing progress, where there was progress and some things we didn’t do well. One of the first things that I looked at was the fact that we didn’t pressure the quarterback really well. we’ve got to figure out a way to do that and if we’ve got to be able to do that with four guys in this league if you’re having to dial-up zone dogs and blitz in this league week–in and week-out, specially in our division in my opinion, you’re going to get burned. So we’ve got to find a way to pressure the quarterback with four guys and that will be a big point of emphasis.”

[Dr. Toro]

Originally Posted by Texian

OK then, I will just leave you with this 01/01/07 Kubiak quote:

(on fulfilling the need for pass rushers) “There’s no doubt, we’ve got to find a way to put some pressure on some people. We played a group yesterday that was missing a couple of guards and (defensive coordinator) Richard (Smith) dialed up plenty of zone gods trying to create pressure and that is one glaring thing that I’ve been looking at this morning, comparing progress, where there was progress and some things we didn’t do well. One of the first things that I looked at was the fact that we didn’t pressure the quarterback really well. we’ve got to figure out a way to do that and if we’ve got to be able to do that with four guys in this league if you’re having to dial-up zone dogs and blitz in this league week–in and week-out, specially in our division in my opinion, you’re going to get burned. So we’ve got to find a way to pressure the quarterback with four guys and that will be a big point of emphasis.”

"We've got to find some playmakers," he said. "We have got to find a way to make some big plays. It's so hard to just march 3 and 4 yards a play.

"We didn't score enough points, either. Somehow, we've got to find guys
that can make big plays and score points, because we definitely didn't do that this year." Kubiak 1/2/2007 From the same article.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4438324.html

[kastofsna]

edgerrin james' main problem isn't the cardinals' line, it's his running style combined with the offensive line. he's a very patient back who follows his blockers. peterson is the opposite. he finds the hole and hits it hard. he's a great fit for the texans offense, and i expect a 1000-yard season right out of the gate.