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Old 12-31-2006   #1
DenverBorn
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Default Final Draft Position

OK well Washington lost last night, ending the season at 5-11

If we win today, I think our lowest possible draft position is 7th. To get 7th, Minnesota has to beat St Louis at home (very possible) and San Francisco has to beat Denver on the road (very unlikely). To summarize, if we win:

Minn win, SF win - 7th
Minn win, SF loss - 8th
Minn loss, SF loss - 9th

If we lose today, aside from having a total organizational meltdown, we'll be affected by (a) Tampa Bay's outcome at home vs Seattle , (b) Arizona's outcome at San Diego, and (c) our relative SOS with Washington. So let's summarize the possibilities, if the Texans lose today:

TB loss, AZ loss: 5th or 6th (depending on relative SOS with Washington)
TB win, AZ loss: 4th or 5th
TB win, AZ win : 3rd or 4th


Notwithstanding what I posted elsewhere, it does appear mathematically possible for us to draft 6th. I stand corrected. That being said, I'll be an optimist today and predict that we'll beat the Browns. My gut tells me that SF will lose to a Denver team that is trying to reach the playoffs, and Minnesota will win at home against the Rams. That puts us in the 8th draft position.


7:30 PM edit - of course the one scenario I forgot to mention up top was Minn loss/SF win. Which is what happened . So much for all of this thinking -

Last edited by DenverBorn; 12-31-2006 at 07:31 PM. Reason: update
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Old 12-31-2006   #2
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

It would be nigh-on impossible to get ahead of Arizona or Minnesota in SOS.

If we win, that locks Detroit and Oakland, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Washington ahead of us. Next pick would be #6 and probably goes to Arizona. We would want Minny to win to move out of the #7 pick.

San Fran does have a two game SOS lead on us, but they'd be pulling for mostly underdogs while we'd be pulling for favorites. So even if San Fran loses to Denver, we could still overtake them for #8 (#7 if Minny won)

We're guaranteed to finish ahead of Miami in SOS.

If we lose, Detroit and Oakland are locked in ahead of us. Next pick would be #3 and would almost certainly go to Arizona UNLESS they win - which is unlikely against SD. Tampa Bay can not get above Houston or Washington and would be hard pressed to get above Cleveland, so in this scenario they project at #7 if they win.

Picks #4-6 would be an all out SOS struggle between Washington, Houston and Cleveland. As luck would have it, Washington and Houston have EXACTLY the same possible SOS range, though we have slightly more favorites that we would like to see win. Cleveland is trailing both teams by two games and would get locked at #6 with EITHER a KC win over Jax OR a Baltimore win over Buffalo. Remember what I said about us liking favorites? Remember how Baltimore clinches a 1st-round bye with a win?

Please note: All draft positions are relative to the Texans position. So when I say Arizona at the #6 pick, all I mean is AZ is one of 6 teams that will finish ahead of the Texans. I'm not necessarily saying they finish #6 vs, say #3.

Last edited by Sarg01; 12-31-2006 at 11:37 AM.
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Old 12-31-2006   #3
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

Including last night's game, our SOS is .512397 and Washington's is .516529. We both played the Giants during the season but it counts double for Washington as they played the Giants twice.

If everything goes our way (from a SOS perspective), the "lowest" we can have is .496094 and the "highest" we can have is .521236. Key to the "lowest" are losses by Indy, Jax and Tenn. If we beat Cleveland, the "highest" we can have is .517375

More later, I'll track this as the games develop today
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Old 12-31-2006   #4
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

oops wrong board
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Old 12-31-2006   #5
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

6 teams have 5-wins or fewer with no capacity to hit 6.

6 win teams:

Minnesota
Arizona (if they win)
Houston
San Fran (still to play)
Miami (still to play)

Miami can not beat Houston in SOS, so the Texans have #9 locked. It is unlikely (I'll determine shortly if its even possible) to get ahead of Minny or Arizona, so we are in a throw down with SF for pick #8 at the moment.
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Old 12-31-2006   #6
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

EVERY early game has currently got the scoreboard our way SOS wise!

The only game we don't care about (Cin/Pit) is tied
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Old 12-31-2006   #7
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

Hey if Pitt wins, the Titans hopes are still alive.
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Old 12-31-2006   #8
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

Sarg is right, all of the noon games are going our way from an SOS perspective. I'll have a fulll update upon conclusion of the Titans game
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Old 12-31-2006   #9
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

Crazy Al has the first. That will be a hoot.
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Old 12-31-2006   #10
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

That makes all juniors reconsider .
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Old 12-31-2006   #11
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

After the early games, here's the SOS ranges:

Texmax = highest possible without also affecting Houston's SOS.

Minnesota: 124 min, 127 Texmax
Arizona: 126 min, 128 Texmax
San Fran: 126 min, 129 Texmax
Houston: 127 min, 129 max!!!
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Old 12-31-2006   #12
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

OK here is where we standing entering the afternoon games:

The Texans opponents have a collective record of 126-125. Remaining games include:

Philly (home vs Atl)
Indy (home vs Miami, and worth 2 games)
Buffalo (at Baltimore)
Miami (at Indianapolis)

The Indy- Miami game is NOT a wash, as we played Indy twice. Going with the favorites in these games projects out to 129-127

The 49ers opponents have a collective record of 125-124. Remaining games include:

Arizona (at San Diego, and worth 2 games)
Philly (home vs Atlanta)
SD (home vs AZ)
Chicago( home tonight vs. GB)
GB (at Chicago)
Denver (home vs SF)

As GB and Chicago are each worth one game, that's a win and a loss and move the overall record to 126-125. Also means we don't have to wait on tonight's game to learn the outcome

Going with the favorites projects out to 129-127. A dead heat
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Old 12-31-2006   #13
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

To get ahead of San Fran for #8 we need:

EITHER San Fran over Denver
OR any 2 of these 3:
Miami over Indy
Arizona over San Diego
Baltimore over Buffalo


To get ahead of Arizona for #7 we need:

Arizona MUST defeat San Diego
AND
Atlanta MUST defeat Philly
AND any 1 of 3
Miami defeats Indy OR
Baltimore defeats Buffalo OR
San Fran defeats Denver

To get ahead of Minnesota for #6 we need:
ALL OF:
Arizona over San Diego
Atlanta defeats Philly
San Fran over Denver
Miami over Indy
AND win coin flip

It is not possible to finish ahead of Minny without finishing ahead of the other two teams.

Last edited by Sarg01; 12-31-2006 at 03:56 PM.
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Old 12-31-2006   #14
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarg01 View Post
To get ahead of San Fran for #8 we need:

EITHER San Fran over Denver
OR any 2 of these 3:
Miami over Indy
Arizona over San Diego
Baltimore over Buffalo


To get ahead of Arizona for #7 we need:

Arizona MUST defeat San Diego
AND
Atlanta MUST defeat Philly
AND any 1 of 3
Miami defeats Indy OR
Baltimore defeats Buffalo OR
San Fran defeats Denver
OK, that cleared it up...
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Old 12-31-2006   #15
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

Who Knows? ...Detroit beat Dallass!
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Old 12-31-2006   #16
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

As further complication, I mistakenly assumed we could not "catch up" to AZ in an SOS comparison were AZ to beat SD this afternoon, and also finish 6-10

well as of the end of the noon games, AZ's opponents are 124-125. Remaining games include:

Atlanta (at Philly)
Chicago (home vs GB)
GB (at Chicago)
Denver (home vs SF)
SF (at Denver, worth 2 games)
AZ (at SD)

Adding the Chicago/GB win/loss makes it 125-126. Going with the favorites projects to 128-128

Of course if AZ loses to SD, the rest of this is irrelevant. But is AZ wins it could get very interesting. Especially as for it to matter, AZ would have to beat SD and thus that combined with all of the other favorites winning projects to 129-127

Minnesota analysis to come

Last edited by DenverBorn; 12-31-2006 at 04:33 PM.
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Old 12-31-2006   #17
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

Great and fast work Sarg! As an intersting side note, besides helping our SOS, if Miami and/or SF were to win and become 7-game winners, we would not have to flip flop with them on the selections in the later rounds of the draft. The fewer 6-game winers we share with, the less deep we have to flip in the later rounds.

My figures basically agree with yours. We are hurting against ARZ and MIN SOS's. MIA is history and will pick after us (1st round) regardless of win/loss. We have a fighting chance against the 49ers SOS. MIA, BAL wins saves our SOS by 1 each. ARZ raises theirs by 1. PHI/ATL game has the same outcome for us both, 1 point either way. Nothing else matters vs. SF.

Given all of the above, and the likely outcomes of the games underway, we will likely be tied with SF for the 8th draft position. I don't believe there is any tie breaker left except a coin flip. If someone knows different, please advise.

Last edited by CharloTex; 12-31-2006 at 04:17 PM.
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Old 12-31-2006   #18
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

Quote:
Originally Posted by CharloTex View Post
Great and fast work Sarg!
What??? No kudos for me as well?
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Old 12-31-2006   #19
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

Minnesota is 122-126 going into the afternoon games. Give them 2 wins and 2 losses for the GB-Chi game, makes them 124-128. Teams still playing include

Buffalo
SF
Miami
AZ

so if the favorites win out, that puts them at 124-132. I don't have a computer to run all of the scenarios but I think it's highly unlikely that we move ahead of Minnesota in the draft.

While finishing up the games this afternoon, pull for Miami, SF and Arizona. Unfortunately I think they are all losing right now-
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Old 12-31-2006   #20
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Default Re: Final Draft Position

I'm so confused after reading all the scenarios so I'll just wait until the day is done. Regardless, I think with our win today we're out of the running for Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams, Adrian Peterson, and Calvin Johnson. The elite of this draft.
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