kastofsna's Full First Round Mock

[kastofsna]

1. Detroit - Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame - They need a QB desperately. Quinn is a prototypical QB.
2. Oakland - Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech - Oakland won't draft a QB. Forget about that. Randy Moss and Jerry Porter could both be gone, this is easy.
3. Cleveland - Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma - A power running game would be nice for Cleveland.
4. Tampa Bay - Joe Thomas, T, Wisconsin - Lots of problems in Tampa, most notably the left side of the o-line.
5. Arizona - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson - Worst pass-rush in the league. This will help that out just a tad.
6. Houston - JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU - Has all the measurables, it's up to Gary Kubiak to develop Russell further. I think next year is Carr's final chance to prove he's worth the #1 pick, otherwise he's gone and Russell takes over.
7. Washington - Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh - Revis and Carlos Rogers form a formidable CB duo.
8. Minnesota - Ted Ginn, Jr, WR, Ohio State - Marcus Robinson was just cut, signifiying that the pretty weak WR corps for the Vikings need even more help than before. Ginn is an elite talent, but needs some work.
9. San Francisco - Reggie Nelson, S, Florida - San Francisco has a very promising offense, but their defense has been a huge burden this year. They could fix any part of it with this pick really. Nelson has dramatically improved his stock with his play this year.
10. Miami - LaMarr Woodley, DE/OLB, Michigan - Could eventually be Jason Taylor's replacement as a roaming DE/OLB. For right now, he'd play SLB next to Zach Thomas.
11. St. Louis - LaRon Landry, S, LSU - The Rams are an opprotunistic defense, but they still give up big plays and their safeties have a lot to do with that. They need run support from them, too. Landry does it all.
12. Atlanta - Alan Branch, DT, Michigan - Pretty much a BPA pick here. Coleman is very good, but Grady Jackson is old and Branch would at least provide excellent depth to start off.
13. Carolina - Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss - Dan Morgan is just not reliable enough as a starting ILB. If they draft Willis, either/or can be moved outside.
14. Green Bay - Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal - Great value pick here. Whether Favre returns or not, the Packers need a running game. Lynch is explosive and has "rookie of the year" written all over him.
15. Pittsburgh - Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona - Cason is an elite talent and Pittsburgh has had a lot of problems with playing the ball in the air.
16. New York Giants - Leon Hall, CB, Michigan - The Giants are pretty old at CB and Leon Hall is the kind of player who could start immediately.
17. Buffalo - Levi Brown, T, Penn State - The Mike Williams draft pick was really awful. But that's history now, time to start anew. Not a huge fan of Brown, but he can be a solid RT.
18. New England - Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee - With the loss of Deion Branch and some of the other Super Bowl Patriot receivers, it's time for a huge upgrade. Chad Jackson is developing slowly, and the other Florida receivers on the team aren't good enough to scare anyone.
19. Kansas City - Steve Smith, WR, USC - USC's best receiver goes to a team that needs one. They've done well without a star WR the past few years, mostly due to Tony Gonzalez and the running game, but a threat like Smith would be icing on the cake.
20. Jacksonville - Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State - Real value pick here for the Jags. Not a great season after his knee injury in the '06 Orange Bowl, but that doesn't mean he won't be a great NFL player.
21. Cincinnati - Quinn Pitc0ck, DT, Ohio State - Cincy always seems to have problems up front on defense. Pitc0ck is a nice value pick here.
22. Tennessee - Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC - Potentially the steal of the first round. Jarrett doesn't have good speed and most scouts look at him as nothing more than a possession receiver in the mold of former USC- standout Mike Williams. His 40 time will ultimately hurt his stock a ton. Tennessee lucks out.
23. Dallas - Justin Blalock, G, Texas - Tony Romo has looked great thus far, but when his o-line breaks down, he looks pretty pedestrian. Blalock can play several places on the line, but his true destiny is at guard.
24. New York Jets - Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal - Justin Miller made it to the pro bowl this year.....as a returnman. He's not quite the same kind of player at CB. David Barrett could be the real deal, though.
25. Philadelphia - Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU - Bowe should finally give the Eagles several legitimate receiving threats. Big guy with great hands.
26. Denver - Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska - Denver's d-line consisting of all Browns players has been pretty good, surprisingly. But still, they're getting old, and aren't spectacular by any means. Carriker is a real steal. His stats don't look impressive, but that's mostly due to teams double teaming him and running plays away from him.
27. New Orleans - Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville - This young guy would be a nice addition to a Saints line which already has some really great young players in Will Smith and Charles Grant. The sky's the limit with Okoye.
28. New England - Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State - Pretty easy pick here, the Pat Hill ties alone seal the deal, not to mention the fact that Belichick needs some serious help in the secondary. Ultra talented physically, but needs some help with his overall game.
29. Indianapolis - HB Blades, LB, Pittsburgh - The Colts really lack a playmaker at ILB; a true leader. Blades brings a lot of energy and experience and can start from day one.
30. Baltimore - Colt Brennan, QB, Hawai'i - Steve McNair won't last forever. And Kyle Boller is not going to replace him when that day comes. Brennan could use the time on the bench, learning the ins and outs of an NFL offense.
31. Chicago - Zach Miller, TE, Arizona State - Desmond Clark has been good this year, but not great. Miller is a better talent. And it couldn't hurt to have several good tight ends anyway.
32. San Diego - Michael Griffin, S, Texas - San Diego's "weakness" is their secondary. This is a good value pick.

[DenverBorn]

Actually I think it's mathematically impossible for Cleveland to draft 3rd and Houston to draft 6th.

If Cleveland wins Sunday, then we're tied with them at 5-11 and our weaker SOS moves us ahead of them. Tampa probably moves to 3 (unless they win Sunday) and there's Arizona and Washington who are also likely to finish 5-11. AZ also has a weaker SOS than Houston, and we're tied with Washington going into the weekend.

If Houston wins Sunday, it would take several upsets to keep us in the 6 spot (I don't have time to figure it out) but as you well know, we're most likely to draft 9th. Given that AZ, SF and Minn all go into the weekend with significantly weaker SOS's than Houston, I am going to state that there is NO WAY a 6-10 Houston team would draft 6th.

So while I think your mock draft is interesting and thoughtful, in some respects, it doesn't reflect the likely draft order and thus is somewhat meaningless. Given all the work you put into it, it wouldn't be that difficult to project the likely final draft order. As you know, it's been discussed on another thread -

[ArlingtonTexan]

Originally Posted by DenverBorn

Actually I think it's mathematically impossible for Cleveland to draft 3rd and Houston to draft 6th.

If Cleveland wins Sunday, then we're tied with them at 5-11 and our weaker SOS moves us ahead of them. Tampa probably moves to 3 (unless they win Sunday) and there's Arizona and Washington who are also likely to finish 5-11. AZ also has a weaker SOS than Houston, and we're tied with Washington going into the weekend.

If Houston wins Sunday, it would take several upsets to keep us in the 6 spot (I don't have time to figure it out) but as you well know, we're most likely to draft 9th. Given that AZ, SF and Minn all go into the weekend with significantly weaker SOS's than Houston, I am going to state that there is NO WAY a 6-10 Houston team would draft 6th.

So while I think your mock draft is interesting and thoughtful, in some respects, it doesn't reflect the likely draft order and thus is somewhat meaningless. Given all the work you put into it, it wouldn't be that difficult to project the likely final draft order. As you know, it's been discussed on another thread -

Wow, the dude uses the current order and gets beat across the head for it. Maybe you are taking a mock draft way too seriously. Seems more responsible to use the current order than guessing wildly as what might happen on sunday.Pretty sure you knew the Texans would beat the Colts, right?

[YoungTexanFan]

It hurts to see both Meachem and Bowe go 1st round. As well as Okoye.

Your second round project for us based on your mock kast?

[Dr. Toro]

Picks 1-4: highly probable.
AZ: Baker goes back to school (not if Carroll is hired), so AZ goes D or trades down.
HOU& Russell: Interesting, could be BPA at a potential need spot.
MIN& Ginn: Don't see it happening, they got Williamson, a lot of overlap there.
ATL: I see them taking the most polished receiver, Jarrett or Smith.
KC: I think if given the choice, they'd take the bigger receiver, Jarrett, as they stand to lose Gonzo. Ginn is also an option.
TEN: Need a burner, but Ginn is less valuable with Pac-Man returning. Jarrett is a great fit, Samardzjia works too. Need DE, DT, and MLB as well.

[DenverBorn]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan

Wow, the dude uses the current order and gets beat across the head for it. Maybe you are taking a mock draft way too seriously. Seems more responsible to use the current order than guessing wildly as what might happen on sunday.Pretty sure you knew the Texans would beat the Colts, right?

Seems to me if you are going to invest all that time guessing which players will be drafted by which teams, then it wouldn't be that hard to make educated guesses as to who will win or lose this coming Sunday. He obviously knows his stuff when it comes to draft prospects, I'm certainly not challenging him there. The chances of us drafting 6th are next to nothing, so why spend the time specualting as to who we will draft in a spot where we know we won't be drafting? In another thread I took a shot at a projected top 10 draft order, took me about 10 minutes to put together.

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by DenverBorn

The chances of us drafting 6th are next to nothing, so why spend the time specualting as to who we will draft in a spot where we know we won't be drafting?

just a guess here but someones going to get flamed

[YoungTexanFan]

Originally Posted by Dr. Toro

Picks 1-4: highly probable.
AZ: Baker goes back to school (not if Carroll is hired), so AZ goes D or trades down.
HOU& Russell: Interesting, could be BPA at a potential need spot.
MIN& Ginn: Don't see it happening, they got Williamson, a lot of overlap there.
ATL: I see them taking the most polished receiver, Jarrett or Smith.
KC: I think if given the choice, they'd take the bigger receiver, Jarrett, as they stand to lose Gonzo. Ginn is also an option.
TEN: Need a burner, but Ginn is less valuable with Pac-Man returning. Jarrett is a great fit, Samardzjia works too. Need DE, DT, and MLB as well.

I think AZ could easily go DE w/Adams, but I think if JT is gone, they won't feel they are getting value for their pick.

I agree I don't see Ginn to Minny. Ginn is a more glorified Williamson.

I see ATL going S all the way. If Nelson and Landry are gone like suggested, I see them reaching on Griffin. I see WR as one of their last needs. They may go DT w/Branch if he falls, but they need S.

[YoungTexanFan]

There is such tension in DeverBorn's posts. So much hostility. Relax bro. This is a public MB where everyone is entitled to an opinion that doesn't have to reflect yours. It's a mock, let him mock. If you are unhappy with a certian aspect, mock away yourself. But most importantly, keep the respect level up. This is a classy board, so let's keep it that way.

[ArlingtonTexan]

Originally Posted by DenverBorn

Seems to me if you are going to invest all that time guessing which players will be drafted by which teams, then it wouldn't be that hard to make educated guesses as to who will win or lose this coming Sunday. He obviously knows his stuff when it comes to draft prospects, I'm certainly not challenging him there. The chances of us drafting 6th are next to nothing, so why spend the time specualting as to who we will draft in a spot where we know we won't be drafting? In another thread I took a shot at a projected top 10 draft order, took me about 10 minutes to put together.

Or maybe just wait 4 days to put together a mock since having the exact draft order so important. The major thing you should attempting to learn this time of the year are the players and the basic needs of the teams. Guesses the week of the draft are going to be incorrect much less December. Mock drafts are meant to be a fun actitity of what if, not some measurement of reality.

[Dr. Toro]

Originally Posted by YoungTexanFan

I think AZ could easily go DE w/Adams, but I think if JT is gone, they won't feel they are getting value for their pick.

I agree I don't see Ginn to Minny. Ginn is a more glorified Williamson.

I see ATL going S all the way. If Nelson and Landry are gone like suggested, I see them reaching on Griffin. I see WR as one of their last needs. They may go DT w/Branch if he falls, but they need S.

ATL's pass D has been brutal, but I just figure with Blank in Vick's pocket, all the complaining he's done about WR, and their miserable play, they'd appease him. That being said, they did spend 1st rounders on White and Jenkins and have Lelie, so maybe they are a little burned out on 1st round WRs.

[threetoedpete]

Very well done Kastranostra. I think you've got them all sloted correctly for what we know as of the end of December. Great Job.

[DenverBorn]

Originally Posted by beerlover

just a guess here but someones going to get flamed

Why? For once I am being optimistic. I think we'll beat Cleveland on Sunday, and if we do, we most likely won't draft 6th. 9th is my best guess. I can't run all of the simulations but I just don't see how a 6-10 Houston team drafts 6th, given the records and SOS's of the teams going into the weekend. I guess if Houston wins, Washington wins, Minnesota wins AND San Francisco wins (all upsets except Houston) AND Washington's SOS ends up tied or better than ours (currently tied), then we'd probably draft 6th. Very unlikely. So go ahead and flame me for being optimistic -

[kastofsna]

my purpose here is to make a mock draft, not to guess who's going to wind up with what picks after it's all said and done. it's a lot easier just to use the current draft order and go from there. because...that's the most logical.

[YoungTexanFan]

Originally Posted by kastofsna

my purpose here is to make a mock draft, not to guess who's going to wind up with what picks after it's all said and done. it's a lot easier just to use the current draft order and go from there. because...that's the most logical.

Tis what most mockers do these days.

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by ArlingtonTexan

Or maybe just wait 4 days to put together a mock since having the exact draft order so important. The major thing you should attempting to learn this time of the year are the players and the basic needs of the teams. Guesses the week of the draft are going to be incorrect much less December. Mock drafts are meant to be a fun actitity of what if, not some measurement of reality.

Mocks are a good way to get to know the players that are coming into the league and give fans a chance to browse the other team’s needs as the season ends.

Kast, we obviously don't tend to think alike but your mock isn't bad at all for this point of the year. The one thing that jumped out to me was the Eagles choice. I think they are happy with Stallworth and Brown at wr1 and wr2 and will take a guy like Adam Carriker if he is there. That guy is a freak (built like Mario Williams) and just reeks of NFL player, and the Eagles have a miserable pass rush that really hurts an otherwise fairly solid defense.

[kastofsna]

Originally Posted by YoungTexanFan

Tis what most mockers do these days.

yeah, that's why i avoid it. because ultimately you wind up with people complaining about where you positioned the teams more than anything else. seriously, check out early season mocks, they're always "umm you seriously think the colts will win the super bowl??? not with that defense!" you get people breaking down the chances of a team winning a super bowl more than the mock itself.

[kastofsna]

Originally Posted by Vinny

Kast, we obviously don't tend to think alike but your mock isn't bad at all for this point of the year. The one thing that jumped out to me was the Eagles choice. I think they are happy with Stallworth and Brown at wr1 and wr2 and will take a guy like Adam Carriker if he is there. That guy is a freak (built like Mario Williams) and just reeks of NFL player, and the Eagles have a miserable pass rush that really hurts an otherwise fairly solid defense.

stallworth is in the same league as chris chambers, extremely disappointing ultimately. i think bowe brings a different element anyway with his size, something philly hasn't had in receivers since what's-his-face (nor before him, either). and i'm with you on carriker--i think he's a top 10 player.

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by kastofsna

stallworth is in the same league as chris chambers, extremely disappointing ultimately. i think bowe brings a different element anyway with his size, something philly hasn't had in receivers since what's-his-face (nor before him, either). and i'm with you on carriker--i think he's a top 10 player.

Stallworth is their wr2 really. I think Brown is good enough to be their primary wr and Stallworth is a good field stretcher. I just can't see them taking a wr here, that's all.

[stingray]

Stallworth is good but he is too inconsistent and seems to always get hurt for long stretches. The Eagles need a solid #1 reciever that is consistent.