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Old 12-27-2006   #1
Hervoyel
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Default Ron Dayne

There's a nice little article about Dayne in todays Chronicle.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...s/4427774.html

When we signed Ron Dayne I got very optimistic. I looked at his career stats, saw the very good average he posted with Denver last year, and made some assumptions about him right away. I thought he was going to blow up here and that if he was used in the right system (ours and Denvers for instance) on a steady basis then he would become the running back he was expected to be when he was drafted. I looked at his time in New York and saw that he rarely if ever got the number of carries that he seemed to need to get going and that his arrival there coincided with the emergence of Tiki Barber. I concluded that he would suprise everyone here and be a beast for us.

Then he didn't do any of that.

Instead he played as badly as our other backs and looked like another Kubiak "Denver Legacy" pickup that must have been signed to make Gary more comfortable with his roster. Of course I knew about the turf toe but I discounted it too easily and within a few weeks of Dayne playing I backtracked on all my initial expectations. I wrote him off as another Stacey Mack who wouldn't make much of an impact for us and be gone the next year.

The past four weeks have been a real eye opener for me and I'm sorry I didn't have more faith in him. I know this excercise is familiar to anyone who's been following Domanick Davis career over the years but if you take Daynes numbers over the past four weeks and average them out you find that he's averaged 107 yards per game in that time. Multiplied by 16 games that would come out to around 1700 yards.

Obviously you can't say for certain that he'd run like this all year long until we actually see him do it. We all used to look at Domanick Davis and figure up what he would have run for IF he'd stayed healthy all year long so I figured I'd do the same with Ron Dayne. I believe that even if he didn't make it through an entire year he'd at least outperform Domanick in a typical season.

Daynes December is IMO consistent production. He obviously had a big game against Indianapolis who at 32nd against the run seem tailor made for a back like him to explode on but he did very well against Tennessee and New England as well. Neither of those teams are sporting "Colts like" run defenses. The Texans end the season against Cleveland this Sunday and they happen to be the 31st ranked run defense. I expect another heavy day on the ground and if Dayne is healthy enough to go then he'll probably wrap this year up with another 100 yard effort.

Personally I like a team with a big back. I grew up watching the Oilers and Earl Campbell and I have always associated a powerful running game with a successful team. During the Oilers Run-and-Shoot years I missed seeing a good running game. I think the Texans would be nuts to not give Dayne a shot at being the guy next year. If they think they need to go get someone else to be that faster change-of-pace back then go find him but I'd try to make 20-30 carries from Ron Dayne a staple of my offense next season. I think he's got at least two more years left in him at that pace. Probably more like three to four years. Plus I absolutely love the idea of a player who is grateful for a legitimate chance to play. A guy like Dayne who clearly appreciates the shot he's been given and who seemingly wants to prove that he wasn't a bust (but was rather mis-utilized) is something we can really use here. Someone who sounds genuinely grateful to be here is a real nice change of pace I think.

I'm going to flip-flop back to what I was saying at the start of the season. I'm going to apologize to Ron Dayne (in fact I'm doing it right now) and jump on that bandwagon. I think he's got a real future here if the Texans are smart enough to keep feeding that man the ball.
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Old 12-27-2006   #2
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
There's a nice little article about Dayne in todays Chronicle.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...s/4427774.html

When we signed Ron Dayne I got very optimistic. I looked at his career stats, saw the very good average he posted with Denver last year, and made some assumptions about him right away. I thought he was going to blow up here and that if he was used in the right system (ours and Denvers for instance) on a steady basis then he would become the running back he was expected to be when he was drafted. I looked at his time in New York and saw that he rarely if ever got the number of carries that he seemed to need to get going and that his arrival there coincided with the emergence of Tiki Barber. I concluded that he would suprise everyone here and be a beast for us.

Then he didn't do any of that.

Instead he played as badly as our other backs and looked like another Kubiak "Denver Legacy" pickup that must have been signed to make Gary more comfortable with his roster. Of course I knew about the turf toe but I discounted it too easily and within a few weeks of Dayne playing I backtracked on all my initial expectations. I wrote him off as another Stacey Mack who wouldn't make much of an impact for us and be gone the next year.

The past four weeks have been a real eye opener for me and I'm sorry I didn't have more faith in him. I know this excercise is familiar to anyone who's been following Domanick Davis career over the years but if you take Daynes numbers over the past four weeks and average them out you find that he's averaged 107 yards per game in that time. Multiplied by 16 games that would come out to around 1700 yards.

Obviously you can't say for certain that he'd run like this all year long until we actually see him do it. We all used to look at Domanick Davis and figure up what he would have run for IF he'd stayed healthy all year long so I figured I'd do the same with Ron Dayne. I believe that even if he didn't make it through an entire year he'd at least outperform Domanick in a typical season.

Daynes December is IMO consistent production. He obviously had a big game against Indianapolis who at 32nd against the run seem tailor made for a back like him to explode on but he did very well against Tennessee and New England as well. Neither of those teams are sporting "Colts like" run defenses. The Texans end the season against Cleveland this Sunday and they happen to be the 31st ranked run defense. I expect another heavy day on the ground and if Dayne is healthy enough to go then he'll probably wrap this year up with another 100 yard effort.

Personally I like a team with a big back. I grew up watching the Oilers and Earl Campbell and I have always associated a powerful running game with a successful team. During the Oilers Run-and-Shoot years I missed seeing a good running game. I think the Texans would be nuts to not give Dayne a shot at being the guy next year. If they think they need to go get someone else to be that faster change-of-pace back then go find him but I'd try to make 20-30 carries from Ron Dayne a staple of my offense next season. I think he's got at least two more years left in him at that pace. Probably more like three to four years. Plus I absolutely love the idea of a player who is grateful for a legitimate chance to play. A guy like Dayne who clearly appreciates the shot he's been given and who seemingly wants to prove that he wasn't a bust (but was rather mis-utilized) is something we can really use here. Someone who sounds genuinely grateful to be here is a real nice change of pace I think.

I'm going to flip-flop back to what I was saying at the start of the season. I'm going to apologize to Ron Dayne (in fact I'm doing it right now) and jump on that bandwagon. I think he's got a real future here if the Texans are smart enough to keep feeding that man the ball.
Good post and a very pleasant read Herv. I'm really excited about the prospects of Dayne running the ball for us as well. Cleveland's game should be a fine opportunity for Dayne to firmly establish himself as our go to guy for the run.

2-0 to finish the year Baby!!! Yea!
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Old 12-27-2006   #3
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

He's looked boarderline outstanding since returning from the inactives. My question is his health issues. Can he stay healthy for a season? Has health even been an issue concerning his past? I wouldn't mind holding onto Dayne for next season, but I still believe we should evaluate the RB position just as much as the other positions in need. If we happen to jump out on the Browns with an early lead, I'd like to see a heavy dose of Chris Taylor.
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Old 12-27-2006   #4
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

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Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
. Of course I knew about the turf toe but I discounted it too easily ....
Im guilty of this as well....
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Old 12-27-2006   #5
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

Intersting thing about the big toe is that you can't run well if it isn't functioning well ie. turf toe. In the Roman era IIRC they cut off a big toe on slaves that had run away and then were caught and returned. The idea was that they may run away again, but wont get very far. The big toe is key to walking and running, so if it hurts or is gone, you don't do either well. Turf toe sounds so.........silly, that we tend to discount it, but it's no easy thing to deal with.
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Old 12-27-2006   #6
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

He's been awesome since he's started playing regulary. In the last 4 games, he's averaged 107 yards a game and scored 5 touchdowns. Not bad.
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Old 12-27-2006   #7
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

Great find, Herv! Thanks for posting it.

I didn't think he'd amount to much, either. He seems like a really great guy and appreciative to be given a chance, but I thought he would just be filler until the roster could be solidified over time.

But he's proven a lot of folks wrong, including Denver's coaches, too. Props to Kubiak for seeing his true potential, and I hope Dayne is around next year as a mentor to our young backs and possibly earning the starting spot.
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Old 12-27-2006   #8
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

I am a big back fan as well, I grew up with the Steelers and Franco Harris and the ton of big back they had all the up to Bam Morris. When we got Stacey Mack I for sure thought he'd be the answer to our running game. But, he got injured and that's all she wrote. Dayne seems to not have a lot of tread on him so he may actaully pan out, but the toe does concern me. I hear that this thing just doesn't heal very well and it's a career nagging thing. It's good however to see him finish strong heading into the offseason because then we will know what we have and that is just another positions we do not need to plan for.
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Old 12-27-2006   #9
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

Ron Dayne has had some good games. We needed it back in October but he's given us hope.

IMO you still draft or sign your RB and put Dayne as the guy to beat out. That way they know they can grab the job but also so we can see how Dayne does on the hot seat.

If he is better for it, we as a team will be better for it. If someone else takes his job from him, you probably have a legit back.

3 Carries for 24 yard from Chris Taylor isn't going to change my opinion of drafting a back.
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Old 12-27-2006   #10
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

Herv has some good points, but I think it's a little bit of fool's gold to think you are going to get 16 games at that pace out of Dayne. In fact, at that load, I doubt seriousely he even plays 16 games.

Not only that, but he is slow. He'll hit a homerun about as often as Willy Taveras. That said, I also have been impressed in the past 4 weeks. Even though some of the defenses we have played have been poor run stopping defenses, for the first time I have ever seen him, he is actually running like a big bruising back should. He is punishing defenders, dragging would be tacklers, etc. His current style reminds me of Jerome Bettis, and that's a complement.

I think we still need to draft a speed merchant, or all around threat. A breakaway homerun threat, who is also more of a threat in the passing game as well would be ideal. Maybe not in the first rd now, as I thought earlier, but 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th rd, we need to find a guy with homerun ability. Then we could have a version of thunder and lightening. Every good team needs two legit backs. We now have 1, but we still need another one badly imo.
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Old 12-27-2006   #11
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

Quote:
Originally Posted by Porky View Post
Herv has some good points, but I think it's a little bit of fool's gold to think you are going to get 16 games at that pace out of Dayne. In fact, at that load, I doubt seriousely he even plays 16 games.

Not only that, but he is slow. He'll hit a homerun about as often as Willy Taveras. That said, I also have been impressed in the past 4 weeks. Even though some of the defenses we have played have been poor run stopping defenses, for the first time I have ever seen him, he is actually running like a big bruising back should. He is punishing defenders, dragging would be tacklers, etc. His current style reminds me of Jerome Bettis, and that's a complement.

I think we still need to draft a speed merchant, or all around threat. A breakaway homerun threat, who is also more of a threat in the passing game as well would be ideal. Maybe not in the first rd now, as I thought earlier, but 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th rd, we need to find a guy with homerun ability. Then we could have a version of thunder and lightening. Every good team needs two legit backs. We now have 1, but we still need another one badly imo.

I don't know man, it's not like he's had an injury filled career. He played in all 16 games his first 3 years in the league (2000-2003) and then all of a sudden he is inactive for the 2003 season. The next year he plays in 14 games (2004) and then he's a Denver Bronco (2005) where he's a role player trying to rejuvenate his career. That leads him here. I don't know if 14-16 games is out of the question from him. I think he might be able to be our "Bus".

This is a guy who seems to always produce more when he's given a load to carry. Give him 2-10 carries a game and he's nothing special but the more you put on his back the better he gets. The average goes up with the number of attempts.

I also think we need someone really, really fast to come in and spell him but I'd still like to see how far we can ride Dayne.
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Old 12-27-2006   #12
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

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Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
I don't know man, it's not like he's had an injury filled career. He played in all 16 games his first 3 years in the league (2000-2003) and then all of a sudden he is inactive for the 2003 season. The next year he plays in 14 games (2004) and then he's a Denver Bronco (2005) where he's a role player trying to rejuvenate his career. That leads him here. I don't know if 14-16 games is out of the question from him. I think he might be able to be our "Bus".

This is a guy who seems to always produce more when he's given a load to carry. Give him 2-10 carries a game and he's nothing special but the more you put on his back the better he gets. The average goes up with the number of attempts.

I also think we need someone really, really fast to come in and spell him but I'd still like to see how far we can ride Dayne.
I can't really argue those excellent points, but by the same token, do we really want to hope he stays healthy, without a viable alternative? Many big backs seem to break down over time if they are ridden too hard. Sure, you can ride him for 25+ carries a game, but he might wear down faster. I'm not suggesting 5 carries a game either. I am thinking somewhere in between, say 15. I just think we need a legit option in case he either goes down, or if this really is an aberation. It's not like he has proven anything over his career.
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Old 12-27-2006   #13
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

I love Dayne...he has been a breath of fresh air for me this season...and I feel real confident when he has the ball....I am on the Dayne Train for sure!
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Old 12-27-2006   #14
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

A lot of it depends on who's available and when we pick, but I'd be OK with sticking with Dayne as the starter for next year and getting help in other areas. I don't really think it's best to go with BPA or need, but rather to take both into consideration.
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Old 12-27-2006   #15
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

Well I don't have a dog in this fight but will say if coach does what the Denver system does...everyone will get some touches. I don't think there will be 22 touches per game for sixteen games for the Great Dayne. Each RB will have their roll and coach will put each in the best position to succeed. In other words I doubt he'll be beaten down like DD was beaten down by the previous regieme. I don't know and I ain't in the loop. JMHO. also...plenty of day two backs on the board. They, Kubiak & Smtih, wait on the day one guys, takes one more in day two or FA, It'll say to me that they've turned the corner on RB tallent. I believe everyone agrees we can as a previous poster said so gracfully in another thread put it, scratch off full back. We got a blocking beast and the pass catcher tweener. We're, after one decent draft ,making the needs list smaller and smaller. At least now we're not a blind dog in the meat house like we were in '02.
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Old 12-27-2006   #16
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

Sorry porky didn't mean to step on your most excellent post...I'm a slow typer.
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Old 12-27-2006   #17
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

Can someone confirm that Dayne is or is not a FA after the season? I would assume that the Texans should not have a huge issue resigning him even if he is, but I wish to confirm.

And yes, I am having to eat my negative Ron Dayne words.
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Old 12-27-2006   #18
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Tejano View Post
Ron Dayne has had some good games. We needed it back in October but he's given us hope.

IMO you still draft or sign your RB and put Dayne as the guy to beat out. That way they know they can grab the job but also so we can see how Dayne does on the hot seat.

If he is better for it, we as a team will be better for it. If someone else takes his job from him, you probably have a legit back.

3 Carries for 24 yard from Chris Taylor isn't going to change my opinion of drafting a back.
How about Peterson as the home run threat? Talk about a back field you hate to try and tackle. I dont see a 1st round rb, and with our holes there is too much that needs help, but that would be one painfull backfield.
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Old 12-27-2006   #19
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

Yeah but if All Day slips to nine...like I posted, it's going to be interesting to see which way they jump.
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Old 12-27-2006   #20
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: jerzee
Age: 33
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Default Re: Ron Dayne

i'm gonna go out on a limb here, and say. The texans wont be drafting no rb in next years draft. If anything they will sign an undrafted rookie..
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