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Old 12-25-2006   #1
dalemurphy
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Default Next year: 9 wins or more

I know, it seems crazy. But let's look at it.

Emerging out of the 2-14 disaster we were one of the worst teams I've seen in the past 5 years. In addition to learning how to win, we had to learn new systems on offense and defense. In addition, we changed a lot of personnel. also, we started 5 rookies. Not to be outdone by a humorous god, we suffered three major injuries on the most important OL positions: LT, RT, C... by the way, the position we were weakest at going into the season. Despite all that, we were on the cusp of really turning the season around. A win at NYGiants or versus Tennessee or Buffalo would've done wonders for the team. We could've won any of those games.

In addition, we suffered an injury in preseason to our only probowler: jerome mathis. Our special teams suffered wildly as a result. Against Buffalo, we couldn't even field a kickoff- I believe we missed three kickoffs in the first half. Also, our free agent fullback had two costly fumbles. I believe we lost three DT by midseason on IR. Oh yeah, we started the season with Kailee Wong and Faggins on the PUP. I haven't even mentioned yet the DD was put on the IR before the season started.

Still, I think it's safe to assume that if Chad F...in Stanley can punt the ball 40 yards in the air, we have at least 7 wins right now and are looking at our first non-losing record in the history of the franchise.

So, with some stability in place, a better front office, a coaching staff that knows what it's doing, we enter the off-season with the 7th pick of the draft, or so. Also, plenty of money under the cap. We have no significant free agents. We have a very promising rooking DLman. We have a rookie MLB who should be in the probowl. We have an injured LT that looks like he should recover and could be a future all-pro at the position.

There's a lot to be encouraged by. The defense has progressed so much. The offense has struggled due to injuries and the rookie staff has learned valuable lesssons. Not only that, but we finally beat those B*stards from Indiana. 2007 looks to be a great year... I justo hope they decide to show some of the games on the Tele here in Austin.
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Old 12-25-2006   #2
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

Large parts of this season were a train wreck. We lost a game to Philly to start the season that in my opinion we should have won. At halftime the Texans just seemed to shut down and they stayed shut down for weeks after that. Following that loss to the Eagles the Texans started getting just completely abused on the field. The Colts and Redskins mauled us badly and after a visit from Miami which stopped the bleeding the Cowboys did it too.

After the loss to the Cowboys the Texans didn't really get beaten senseless again until last week at New England.

If you look at our schedule this year there are a four honest to goodness beat downs

Colts
Redskins
Cowboys
Patriots


Then you have our 5 wins

Dolphins
Jaguars
Jaguars
Raiders
Colts


The remaining games were all pretty close despite how absolutely lousy we looked a lot of the time.

Eagles: 24-10 loss where we were down 10-14 at the half and just stopped dead in our tracks

Titans: 28-22 loss where we statistically dominated but turned the ball over 3 times (two David Carr fumbles and one interception)

Giants: 14-10 loss where we led going into the fourth quarter. A Jameel Cook fumble destroyed any chance of pulling out the win against a team that seemed to be almost trying to lose that game

Bills: 24-21 loss where the defense gave up a late drive ending in a touchdown with 13 seconds left. We rushed for 188 yards but couldn't hold Buffalo down at the end.

Jets: 26-11 loss that could and probably should go in the beat down catagory. The Texans came out and lost a game to an opponent that they had no business playing this bad against. Just a terribly flat performance in a potentially winnable game.

Titans: 26-20 loss in overtime. That's pretty much the definition of a close game in my opinion. Coin toss goes the other way and anything can happen.


Finally we still have the Browns to play. Which Texans team is going to show up to play them next week? Is it going to be the one that beat the Colts or the one that rolled over against the Patriots? Hell if I know which one will be there.

My point isn't that we "shoulda" won any of those games in that last catagory. My point is that we could have easily won some of them. If we'd won two of those games (say for instance the Giants and Bills which were both seemingly on their way to being in the win column) then we'd be sitting at 7-8 right now and (bizarre as it seems) preparing to play the Browns in the last game of the season to finish at .500 just like we did at the end of 2004. We'd be playing to not be losers anymore.

If we'd won those two games and just split with the Titans we'd be 8-7 right now and playing Sunday for our first winning season ever. Imagine that for a moment. The Texans, as pitiful as they played at times this year could very nearly be 9-7 and that's with patchwork lines on both sides of the ball, 16 guys on injured reserve, David Carr at QB with all his accumulated warts, and Ron Dayne as our starting RB.

That's absolutely nuts!

Taking all that into consideration I think you're correct dalemurphy.
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Old 12-25-2006   #3
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

Without knowing the schedule next season it's hard to say, but it couldn't be any much more difficult.

I agree with your points dalemurphy, but I think 7-8 wins would be pretty darn acceptable.

If we were to get a 4th-6th round pick for DC, that would be a terrible decision and move by the front office. There is not an abundance of good qb's in this league. Whether or not he rates that label is up to your personal opinion of him.

Keep him here and increase the level of the competition for the position.
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Old 12-25-2006   #4
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

Well until the schedule is out for next year, 9 wins is just a wish..Now not taking anything away from the team this season, there was a game or two left on the table that the Texans could have won making this season close to a .500 one. But we have to realize that when the Texans won, they looked bad in a few of them, and when they lost, even worse. They are also getting lucky with a few bad teams at the end of the schedule. Sure, they were top loaded with hard ones at the beginning.
Miami's win was when they were bad and before they started to turn thier season around, Jax.#1 was with Leftwich and they weren't playing like they are now, and the Oakland game, watching that speaks for itself, 2 missed FG would have won it for them, so even though a W is a W, let's not get too carried away after a great win over Indy.
The Texans need alot of help and they need to start beating teams they should not on more of a consistant basis. I for one am glad to see them on the verge of a 6-10 season, just 1 game off thier best season ever. Just hope they don't collapse vs. Cleveland like they did a few years back.
Anyways, 9 wins would be great, but until the schedule is out and problems addressed in the off season, I would be happy with 6-7 next year so long as improvments are made and the team looks like it is ready to make the leap into a contender. This season they took the leap into becoming a team who is ready to try and be a contender, so the future looks good for them..

MERRY CHRISTMAS ALL !!
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Old 12-25-2006   #5
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

Im looking at a 7-9 season next year
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Old 12-25-2006   #6
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

HOME
Denver
Kansas City
New Orleans
Tampa Bay
AFC East (determined by finish)
3 division - Indy, Jac, Ten


AWAY
Oakland
San Diego
Atlanta
Carolina
AFC North (determined by finish)
3 division - Indy, Jac, Ten


... amd way to early for me to predict. But do like the 9 win sound.
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Old 12-25-2006   #7
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

Quote:
Originally Posted by [[Gary Kubiak]] View Post

David Carr fan and all, I am hoping for the Raiders.
NOOOOOOOO!!!!!! The Raiders are a trainwreck and they aren't going to be any better next year. They flat out suck. If you think the Texans' OL is bad, it isn't any better in Jokeland. He'll get killed there.

Chicago would be better and his old teammate Bernard Berrian would like to have him there.
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Old 12-25-2006   #8
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

I think 9 wins is reasonable without Carr and some improvement on the O-Line
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Old 12-25-2006   #9
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

you guys are getting way too cocky. it was an upset, not the texans getting better. sorry ot burst your bubble.
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Old 12-25-2006   #10
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

next year we will be at least 9-7 IMHO.

i might be crazy but i dont know.
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Old 12-25-2006   #11
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

Wow, how some of you guys want to give David Carr away for a 4th or 5th round pick in the draft is just mind boggling!!!

Wow!!!!!



Carr likely won't be a pro bowl quarterback until after he leads the Texans to a Super Bowl!!!! But, Carr is here and the best the Texans have. Until there is a better option, stay the course. This was his year to get his winning spirit back. We'll know next year if he was salvageable.
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Old 12-25-2006   #12
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

Quote:
Originally Posted by crunk-juice View Post
you guys are getting way too cocky. it was an upset, not the texans getting better. sorry ot burst your bubble.
Exactly. People want carr to do so good and succeed that they are blind to the fact that he just isnt what the texans need.
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Old 12-25-2006   #13
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

Quote:
Originally Posted by crunk-juice View Post
you guys are getting way too cocky. it was an upset, not the texans getting better. sorry ot burst your bubble.
why, you dont think we should be improved next year? i think everyone was way to hard on this team before this week. this team is improving and i stated that before this game. i think we should be fighting for a playoff spot next year.
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Old 12-25-2006   #14
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

hell another draft like last year (Ryans Williams Spencer and Owens) as starters..

y not think they can get more wins next year.

Upgrade the LB's secondary and O-Line... If Carr won 6 games (if they beat the awful browns) with a beat up destroyed O-Line think what he can do with a decent line and a upgraded defense.


As for the Colts.. we can beat them anyday.. they cant stop the run even if they know we are running
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Old 12-25-2006   #15
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

If, and I mean IF Carr remains next year it will because Kubiak sees progress or a very strong potential to work with Dave on "headwork" and decision making. From the very little I've been able to see of the Texan games this year, I've noticed Kubiak has let Dave go back to the form he had at Fresno State.

I remember under the former regime they worked on changing his throwing mechanics and it obviously was a lot different. If he stops making so many mental mistakes then it is very possible to win 9 games next year. Yeah I know, I'm just stating the obvious. However, being negative about next year's team when it's not in the control of the fan base anyway is a waste of energy.
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Old 12-25-2006   #16
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

I think it will take Kubiak longer to fix Carr than Plummer because when Plummer went into Denver.. they were already a playoff team.. Kubiak in houston is a 2-14 team... so give it some time boys
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Old 12-26-2006   #17
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

I don't know about 9-7 next year. While I would like to see that, I think 9-7 is probably a tad on the optimistic side. I think 7-9 is alot more probable for next year. But so much can happen before next year.....draft, free agency, injuries.....that it's really difficult to make a good prediction for next. So I'm guessing 9-7 is possible on the high side and another 6-10 season on the low side. So we'll prolly end up either 8-8 or 7-9.
FWIW, before the start of the season I thought we'd finish between 7-9 & 5-11. I really hope we don't collapse after beating Indy. That lost to Cleveland at the end 2-years ago still hurts.
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Old 12-26-2006   #18
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

I look at this thread title and I think to myself, are we actually improved? so I went back and started comparing last years stats, to this years, last years games, to this years. And this is what I came up with.

Defense

Demeco Ryans, awesome linebacker, Mario Williams, #1 pick, switching to the 4-3, picking up a better defensive coordinator, new system, good shutdown corner... we have a better d this year, definately!

WRONG

Not exactly, I should say,This season we have given up on average more yards a game. Pass rush better? ... yes we have a game left...but unless the texans get 10+ sacks against the browns, then last year we had more sacks. 19 Turnovers this year is an improvement to the 16 we had last year, but 19 still isn't very good. We have the 20th best rush defense this year and 24th against hte pass. So to put that in perspective... I made a little chart:

2005:
Rush Defense 32nd
Pass Defense 23rd
Overall Defense 31st
Turnovers 32nd
Sacks 37

2006:
Rush Defense: 20th
Pass Defense: 24th
Overall Defense: 24th
Turnovers: 31st
Sacks 27

So rush defense, we greatly improved...and in order to be successful in this league you have to be able to run and to stop the run. Hopefully we are a few draft picks away from becoming top 10 in that category, and top 10 in total defense also.

So overall, I would say we slightly improved on the defensive side of the ball.

Offense

2005
Rushing Yards 15th
Passing Yards 30th
Total Yardage 30th

2006
Rushing Yards 20th
Passing Yards 23rd
Total Yardage 28th


Ok... we didn't have our running back. Take away LT from the chargers...they dont have much of a running game so I will say that our running game didn't lapse much...but thank god we have a better passing game this year. I would say 05 from 06 offensively we have improved.





For some reason, I was very optimistic about next season because it seemed to me when I watched this years games it seemed like every week we competed (aside from a few) and it felt different from the other 4 years... but statistically... we aren't. BUT we have had the most injuries this year than any other year, and to still have an improvement is good. Hopefully we can build through free agency and the draft.
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Old 12-26-2006   #19
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

Quote:
Originally Posted by Goldeagle View Post
Im looking at a 7-9 season next year
With the talent level on this team, I think that is a reasonable guess.
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Old 12-26-2006   #20
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Default Re: Next year: 9 wins or more

Before we have this discussion, we should watch the Browns game first!
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