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Old 12-09-2006   #1
FSUBulldog
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Default Revisiting Pre-Season Expectations

As I recall, consensus on the Texans record for 2006 was something between 5-11 and 7-9. Given the fact that we sit at 4-8 with four games remaining, are we losing sight of the bigger picture around here? Granted, some of the weekly ins and outs of the season have been both promising and maddening, but taking a step back and evaluating where we are, I'd say we are right where a lot of us thought we would be.

The same could be said about David. I recall folks saying that they would be happy if he threw more TDs than INTs and for around 3000 yards.

Here's where he is and where he is projected to finish the year:

SPLIT CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
2006 244 353 2251 69.1 6.38 53 10 7 34 87.4
Projected 325 471 3001 69.1 6.38 53 13 9 45 87.4

My intent with this thread is not to start another whirlwind "Carr is horrible, no he is not" thread, but to simply say that it is often easy to lose the forest for the trees and forget where we think we should be at this point in our development as an organization. Especially in light of the front-office and personnel changes that were made in the first season of the new regime.

Your thoughts, please...
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Old 12-09-2006   #2
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Default Re: Revisiting Pre-Season Expectations

I started the year thinking we would be 8-8 +/- a game or so. So, a bit on track, maybe a little off. Overall, there has been some improvement and an offseason draft that was worlds better than we've had in the past. So, that gives me optimism for the future that Kubiak and co will be able to figure out more during this offseason after a year of evaluation and once more have a quality draft (that compares to the last one - we can hope) and move forward once again in the coming year.
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Old 12-09-2006   #3
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Default Re: Revisiting Pre-Season Expectations

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Originally Posted by FSUBulldog View Post
As I recall, consensus on the Texans record for 2006 was something between 5-11 and 7-9. Given the fact that we sit at 4-8 with four games remaining, are we losing sight of the bigger picture around here? Granted, some of the weekly ins and outs of the season have been both promising and maddening, but taking a step back and evaluating where we are, I'd say we are right where a lot of us thought we would be.

The same could be said about David. I recall folks saying that they would be happy if he threw more TDs than INTs and for around 3000 yards.

Here's where he is and where he is projected to finish the year:

SPLIT CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
2006 244 353 2251 69.1 6.38 53 10 7 34 87.4
Projected 325 471 3001 69.1 6.38 53 13 9 45 87.4

My intent with this thread is not to start another whirlwind "Carr is horrible, no he is not" thread, but to simply say that it is often easy to lose the forest for the trees and forget where we think we should be at this point in our development as an organization. Especially in light of the front-office and personnel changes that were made in the first season of the new regime.

Your thoughts, please...
Prior to the season, I said I was expecting to go 5-11. I think we're on track for that so I'm not unhappy with the team's progress overall. I expected more out of our running game and our d-line but I think that at least the d-line is starting to come around.

I don't recall exactly what I had said I wanted out of Carr performance/stat-wise, but he's starting to fall short. IIRC, I wanted about 65% completion and he's hitting that. I wanted over 15-16 TD's, and over the past few weeks, he's started to miss that mark. I wanted over 3400-3500 yards and he's falling short there. I wanted <= 10 ints, and he's getting that.

So I've got mixed feelings on Carr. That last game really poisoned me. I mean, someone can have a bad game but that was just ridiculous and he did roughly the same thing one game last year (although with fewer attempts iirc, and in a loss).

Prior to the season, I had said that sometimes to make real improvement you've got to take a couple of steps back and have your performance degrade prior to improving. That might be what DC is going through right now but I really expected that regression earlier in the year and I expected him to be starting to get a better handle on the offense by this time.

So, I'm pleased with the team overall but let down with Carr.
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Old 12-09-2006   #4
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Default Re: Revisiting Pre-Season Expectations

My expectation was 5/11 or 6/10, so as you have stated we are right inline with that. I would say though, things meeting expectations don't stop us from compaining or whining about the process. I mean I expect the heat in August to be near inhumane or rush hour traffic to horrible, but that does not mean that I don't complain about the particular details of that summer or the traffic on that day.
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Old 12-09-2006   #5
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Default Re: Revisiting Pre-Season Expectations

6-10 is where I was before the season started. If you would have told me Carr would have bested his 2004 season I would have been extremely thrilled and would have expected 8 wins. I saw progression from him early on, but now all we see is regression on the field and in the statistics.

To your overall point I think we have a terrific year to date given that we have been decimated by injuries. If you look at the IR we have six first day starters there. Wong, Faggins and Mathis joined us later in the year. Dom Davis out for the season. Yet we have four wins. I am optimistic, because for the first time there is data and behavior to feel optimistic about.
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Old 12-09-2006   #6
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Default Re: Revisiting Pre-Season Expectations

i thought the expectations were a 13-3 season right??TK,Ibar lol

anyway my 7-9/8-8 hopes were slightly over-optimistic...

i was expecting our passing game to perform like they did at the start of the season but they dropped off as our o-line began to disintegrate...

our run game has been as expected(hit and miss)
and our D has played better than i thought they would
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Old 12-09-2006   #7
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Cool Re: Revisiting Pre-Season Expectations

I thought 8-8 or 7-9. My problem isn't the record, I expected a more consistent season. That we find our level, lose to better teams and win against worse teams.

Not that games would depend on which Texans team showed up. Because of that, I don't care what record we finish with, at this point.
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Old 12-09-2006   #8
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Default Re: Revisiting Pre-Season Expectations

I thought we would be 6-10 by the end of the season. I would have to agree with one of the other posts about the consistency. It has definetly been a dagger to our organization.

The lack of depth, injuries, and incredibly inconsistent performance of our quarterback has led to our problems.

I think even with DC behind center our team can start to produce some quality wins next season. We have eliminated our bad overpaid talent and shown the rest of our players that mediocrity is not tolerated.

You can say what you want about oh its always next year but this time I expect a quality season come next year. Hopefully Kubiak can find some good FA to bring over.....
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Old 12-09-2006   #9
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Default Re: Revisiting Pre-Season Expectations

I had hoped for 8-8, but my expectations was somewhere in the 5-11 or 6-10 range. You don't fix pathetic overnight...at least not the kind of pathetic that Casserly, Capers & Co. represent.

I do see reasons to be optimistic, though. DeMeco Ryans is A New Hope for this franchise, and along with Mario and D.Rob, part of a foudation that could/should be dominant defense within a couple of years.

We've got some potential on offense, too. In spite of an inconsistent QB and a very weak o-line, we still have a Pro-Bowl WR, a great no. 2 WR, an up-and-coming TE, and peices of a line. We have a lot to fix, but it can be done.
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Old 12-09-2006   #10
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Default Re: Revisiting Pre-Season Expectations

The thing we didn't expect to happen (and where a majority of our frustration is seeded) is for our franchise (and highest paid) player to regress even further. At this point in his career he is the worst he's ever been and it just wasn't supposed to happen like this.

So under normal circumstances, 6-10 would be viewed as an improvement. But now we have to go out find a QB after spending so much time and money on Carr.
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Old 12-09-2006   #11
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Default Re: Revisiting Pre-Season Expectations

I have said 6-10 since pre-season. We have been more than a little inconsistant, but 6-10 type teams are. The thing that is interesting is that we very well may make the 6-10 record while have suffered major injuries on the O-line and D-line and still got there. We have some talent, just not enough of it and we are WAY short on depth.
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Old 12-10-2006   #12
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Default Re: Revisiting Pre-Season Expectations

I felt a 5-11 season would be good, but 4-11 was more realistic. However there is still a good chance the team could finish at 6-10 or even 7-9. I think this is a remarkable mark for a team that finished 2-14 last year.

Yes, there are still a lot of holes to fill in but progress is being made. Just think how sweet it will be when the team wins the Superbowl one day...
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