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Old 11-22-2006   #1
Wharton
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Default Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

Well, itís the day before Turkey day and since I have nothing better to do, I decided to think about football. Specifically, How does DC throw 22 strait completions without a TD? How does DC fair against the rest of th e league? The table below was taken from Yahoo and modified slightly to show us the percentage of TD per completion and the percentage of TD per attempt.
Name____________G_____QBRat____Comp____Att____Pct_ ____TD____TD/Comp____TD/Att
Rex Grossman________10_____83.5_____177_____312_____56 .7_____18_____10.17%_____5.77%
Donovan McNabb_____10_____95.5_____180_____316_____57.0___ __18_____10.00%_____5.70%
Seneca Wallace_________6_____76.2_____82_____141_____58.2 ______8_____9.76%_____5.67%
Matt Hasselbeck________6_____82.8_____103_____176_____5 8.5_____10_____9.71%_____5.68%
Tom Brady___________10_____88.1_____199_____334_____59 .6_____19_____9.55%_____5.69%
Michael Vick_________10_____74.3_____140_____267_____52.4_ ____13_____9.29%_____4.87%
Carson Palmer________10_____97.7_____203_____322_____63.0 _____18_____8.87%_____5.59%
Peyton Manning_______10_____100.5____230_____359_____64.1 _____20_____8.70%_____5.57%
Eli Manning___________9_____81.0_____174_____293_____5 9.4_____15_____8.62%_____5.12%
Drew Bledsoe_________6_____69.2______90_____169_____53. 3______7_____7.78%_____4.14%
Tony Romo__________10_____100.0___103_____151_____68.2_ ______8_____7.77%_____5.30%
Damon Huard_________9_____97.6_____146_____241_____60.6_ ____11_____7.53%_____4.56%
Philip Rivers_________10_____99.7_____201_____300_____67. 0_____15_____7.46%_____5.00%
Bruce Gradkowski_____9_____73.7_____129_____239_____54.0 _______9_____6.98%_____3.77%
Drew Brees__________10_____95.1_____254_____383_____66. 3_____17_____6.69%_____4.44%
Jake Plummer________10_____69.7_____150_____276_____54. 3_____10_____6.67%_____3.62%
Byron Leftwich_______6_____79.0_____108_____183_____59.0 _______7_____6.48%_____3.83%
Brett Favre__________10_____80.1_____208_____367_____56. 7_____13_____6.25%_____3.54%
Ben Roethlisberger____9_____75.8_____192_____306_____6 2.7______12_____6.25%_____3.92%
J.P. Losman_________10_____85.1_____164_____262_____62. 6_____10_____6.10%_____3.82%
Alex Smith__________10_____82.7_____169_____274_____61. 7_____10_____5.92%_____3.65%
Chad Pennington_____10_____76.8_____177_____286_____61. 9_____10_____5.65%_____3.50%
Jake Delhomme______10_____81.1_____195_____329_____59.3 _____11_____5.64%_____3.34%
Marc Bulger_________10_____93.9_____231_____364_____63. 5_____13_____5.63%_____3.57%
Steve McNair________10_____78.1_____186_____304_____61.2 _____10_____5.38%_____3.29%
Matt Leinart__________7_____68.1_____118_____220_____53 .6______6_____5.08%_____2.73%
Mark Brunell_________9_____86.5_____162_____260_____62. 3_______8_____4.94%_____3.08%
Jon Kitna___________10_____80.9_____229_____364_____62 .9_____11_____4.80%_____3.02%
David Carr__________10_____89.5_____198_____285_____69.5 ______9_____4.55%_____3.16%
Charlie Frye_________10_____73.8_____198_____316_____62.7_ ____9_____4.55%_____2.85%
Brad Johnson________10_____73.4_____207_____332_____62. 3_____5_____2.42%_____1.51%

Its pretty obvious, DC does not fair well against the rest of the league when it comes to throwing TDs. Then I thought, is this a pattern with DC? Well, 2004 DCís TD/Comp was ranked 26th in the NFL at 5.61% and in 2005 he ranked 25th at 5.47%.

Surprisingly, this data actually shows DC regressing in some ways. Since 2003 DC has increased his % complete each year, yet the percentage of TD completions has fallen. Also, considering he has been sacked less this year then in years past, DC is still not getting the ball into the endzone.

There is a lot of reason for DC to be at the bottom of the list as far as number of TD completions other then his poor play such as:
Poor field position: While I donít have any number on this, considering our defense doesnít get too many turnovers, I suspect, the Texans are at the low end of the field position scale.
Poor line play: While the line is playing better this year then last, I wouldnít exactly say they are good.
Mediocre running game: I suspect when DD was healthy, DC played better, but all in all, Iíd say we have not displayed a good running game.

Oh well, that's all the time I have to play at work. All you Carr Homers can trash me now.
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Old 11-22-2006   #2
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

Wharton, good analysis and breakdown, but this shouldn't be surprising because the Texans average about 16 points a game since 2002 any which way slice it. So, the stats you are pointing out are going to be low.
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Old 11-22-2006   #3
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

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Originally Posted by Wharton View Post
There is a lot of reason for DC to be at the bottom of the list as far as number of TD completions other then his poor play such as:
Poor field position: While I donít have any number on this, considering our defense doesnít get too many turnovers, I suspect, the Texans are at the low end of the field position scale.
Poor line play: While the line is playing better this year then last, I wouldnít exactly say they are good.
Mediocre running game: I suspect when DD was healthy, DC played better, but all in all, Iíd say we have not displayed a good running game.
I think you started to touch on it right there. Statistics only tell you a part of the story. On Sunday what I saw was a guy growing in confidence, throwing well, making a ton of completions and doing his part to get the team into good field positions and hold onto the football. There were also a few big passing plays that would have gone for a TD if Nate Clements wasn't so damn good.

We're playing conservative football this year, so his TDs are bound to be down, but his INTs are down too and - most importantly - we're competing every week. More TDs would be great, but he's got 2 more than this time last year (and 1 less INT) and next year I suspect it'll be considerably more than that.
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Old 11-22-2006   #4
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

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Originally Posted by hollywood_texan View Post
Wharton, good analysis and breakdown, but this shouldn't be surprising because the Texans average about 16 points a game since 2002 any which way slice it. So, the stats you are pointing out are going to be low.
Oh, I agree. It was either play on excel breaking down DC's statistics or doing work. What can I say, I chose to play.
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Old 11-22-2006   #5
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

I wonder how long the average TD pass is ?
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Old 11-22-2006   #6
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

wharton, we had a running game against buffalo and he had 0 td's. Interesting to look at Sage's stat at 11.11% in the limited action he has seen with a qb rating of 103.
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Old 11-22-2006   #7
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

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wharton, we had a running game against buffalo and he had 0 td's. Interesting to look at Sage's stat at 11.11% in the limited action he has seen with a qb rating of 103.
Well, your right.

My comment was more general then a specific game. I think in general we could say that our running game over the past three years has been inconsistant.

While the Buffalo game looks like a freak occurance. It was actually predictable given DC's TD/Comp has fallen from '04 and '05 numbers and ranking even though DC has gotten better protection and better weapons, specifically a pass catching TE and a legit #2 WR.

Carr does not show the appearance of being a "gunslinger" as many on this board have predicted for next year.
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Old 11-22-2006   #8
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

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Originally Posted by Wharton View Post
Surprisingly, this data actually shows DC regressing in some ways. Since 2003 DC has increased his % complete each year, yet the percentage of TD completions has fallen. Also, considering he has been sacked less this year then in years past, DC is still not getting the ball into the endzone.

I think what people fail to realize when it comes to Carr and the "long ball" or "field vision" is the fact that we're still in the midst of transitioning to a West Coast offense, and while Carr has run a similar type of offense in college, the Pro-style West Coast offense generally takes 2-3 years for a QB to get fully acclimated to.

That being said...I do think he should be vastly improved next season compared to now. He's shown the flashes of what he can do in this offense, and he obviously excels in the West Coast philosophy (short passes, etc.). I think when Kubiak feels Carr is more comfortable with things, he'll open up the long ball more (I think this will especially be the case when we get Mathis back).
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Old 11-22-2006   #9
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

troubling to me, was www.footballoutsiders.com had stats on it and it was redzone td percentage.. last season Carr had 1 more chance than hasselback, but hasselback had more TD's.

of course I am comparing a superbowl team to ours and the talent isn't there.
and Capers will never be compared to Holgrem in terms of coaching an offense.
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Old 11-22-2006   #10
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

he has the best completion percentage...that would be cool with me if the running game was getting the TDs done, but they are not
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Old 11-22-2006   #11
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

I love the stats, and it tells me, Homer, that Carr needs to improve. I also saw that Kubiak stated that teams are playing us three deep keeping everything in front of them so we have to call the short pass ( just passing HIS words ). I still have a major problem with Cook, he could have kept us in the Giant game and this last one, he needs the same treatment Carr received, your out of there, put Bruner in, if for nothing else to show him he can be replaced too.
I only get to watch the game once, but it seems to me that in the third quarter Kubiak went 3 & out, 4 & out, 3 & out, trying to run, and behind the line WR screens, that we do poorly, my opinion on the play/play calling still is as it always has been, throw MORE, short passing works for us use it, till someone stops us, our game still can make a first down with any consistantcy. I think Kubiak needs to attack when he has a lead, no-one will be looking for it.
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Old 11-22-2006   #12
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

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I wonder how long the average TD pass is ?

Dan Pastorini and Kenny Burroughs avg 43 yds per TD pass during their career together.
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Old 11-22-2006   #13
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

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Dan Pastorini and Kenny Burroughs avg 43 yds per TD pass during their career together.
Any data in this century?
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Old 11-23-2006   #14
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

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Any data in this century?
...why, you got some?
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Old 11-23-2006   #15
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

Carr threw 4 TDs in his 1st 2 games-5 in his last 8. Too. we don't light up the score board from the rushing side either. We don't have a defense that can go 'lights out,' so what's a team suppose to do?...if it wants to win games? Last year, Carr threw 6 TDs in the last 6 games, so that's not a 'big' hurdle to climb and he only needs 5 TDs to match '05's dismal total of 14.

Scoring points has never been a 'strong' point of the Texans, and that certainly continues this year. If Carr continues on his 10 game avg, he will match last years 14--if he continues his last 8 avg (zero in his last 4), he won't.

IMO, these last 6 games are going to say a lot about where this team is headed with Carr as the QB. This is turning into one of those 'would you have thought years?' If I told you before the season that Carr would not match his anemic TD total passes of 14 of '05, what would you have said?
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Old 11-23-2006   #16
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

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Scoring points has never been a 'strong' point of the Texans, and that certainly continues this year. If Carr continues on his 10 game avg, he will match last years 14--if he continues his last 8 avg (zero in his last 4), he won't.
it's curious that those last 4 games were also games that we were still in..... Our offense doesn't score touchdowns when we have the lead. It's the damndest thing I've ever seen.
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Old 11-23-2006   #17
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

Any list that has Rex Grossman on top has got to have inherent problems.
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Old 11-23-2006   #18
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

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Any list that has Rex Grossman on top has got to have inherent problems.
Well, he must be doing something right, as his team has won 3 times more games than the Texans--part of the problem may be, that while somw QB's improve in the league to lead their teams to wins, some don't..............
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Old 11-23-2006   #19
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

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Well, he must be doing something right, as his team has won 3 times more games than the Texans--part of the problem may be, that while somw QB's improve in the league to lead their teams to wins, some don't..............
yeah and we have a defense that rivals the bears
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Old 11-23-2006   #20
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Default Re: Another Carr Statistic TD/Comp

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yeah and we have a defense that rivals the bears
...question is, would Carr be able to put points on the board with the Bears?
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