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Old 10-25-2006   #1
hollywood_texan
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Exclamation The Recipe for a Texans Victory

The Texans have 2 wins so far this year though six games. My call was 1-5 and through six games and to finish 5-11 for 2006.

So, I got to thinking...

Could the Texans win 7 or maybe even 8 games this year?

Then, I really started to think about the Texans recipe for victory. One thing that seems very consistent on both victories this year is that the defense played very good by only allowing 3 and 7 points thru 3 quarters of play at home on both victories. Whereas, in the same time periods, the offense has only scored 6 and 10 points thru 3 quarters of play for the same games. I don't think the Texans have even scored a point yet in the 3rd quarter this year.

Then, in the fourth quarter (or late in the 3rd for the Miami game), the offense shows some offensive spark and scores some TDs. A few TDs are the result of long drives, but there are some that are the result of a short field provided by the defense. This offense has a lot of 3 and outs in a game, not sure what the league average is though.

Having said that, the offense has been relatively consistent all year, particularly Carr and his stats (take out the those INTs at Dallas and he is very consistent). But, I don't see how the offense is playing to a level to carry a game or pull the team out of jam because they are not scoring points consistently during the entire game. Essentially, the offense finally came around in the 4th quarter for the Fins and the Jags.

Which brings me to the conclusion that the biggest reason for the Texans 2 victories is that the defense was playing all 4 quarters and keeping the game close.

I still haven't seen this offense run the 2 minute drill and make a critical drive in the clutch. I think the jury is still out if this offense can score when it has to, not to mention under time constraints.

We should not get too excited about the Texans at this point, the offense still has a lot of room for improvement when it comes to running the football, sustaining long drives at any time during the game, and scoring points through out the game.

Meanwhile, the defense has a lot to work on too. In both victories, the QB of the opposing team was hobbled and not 100%, so they had a big advantage there.

The Texans have 2 wins, but they could be very misleading. We'll find out on the road against the Titans, Giants, and Jags if they are beginning to become legit.
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Old 10-25-2006   #2
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Default Re: The Recipe for a Texans Victory

A lot of people had the Texans pegged at 1-5 through the first six games and still had them winning 6 games. I don't see how much has changed. The knee jerk reaction has been to moan and complain, but in all honesty, we were beat by better teams (OK, the Skins are debatable). Now that we're entering into a stretch of games that should be a bit more winnable, getting four more wins isn't a stretch at all. And if they accomplish that, then we've seen the level of improvement we (most people) expected to see. The second half will be better because our rookies are getting more experience, our units are starting to pick up their roles a bit better, and we're playing teams closer to our level of skill and talent. If we have another draft next year like the one we had this year, there's no reason not to be optimistic for the long-term.
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Old 10-25-2006   #3
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Default Re: The Recipe for a Texans Victory

very valid points. The defense has to play well in all 4 quarters for us to win. The reason for that oddly enough is because we don't have a running game. Opponents know they can easily make us one dimensional which limits our offensive production and forces us into long yardage situations. 3 and outs are common and it's difficult to sustain long drives.

That being said, we either have to establish a consistent running game , which would help set up the play action, or our defense has to play lights out the whole game. If we don't sustain long drives on offense the D is on the field longer and get worn down by the ends of games. So they have to step it up like they did against the Jags.....to cause turnovers and get the ball back in our offense's hands.

But no matter what else, in order to be a winning team this yr we must establish a consistent running game
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Old 10-25-2006   #4
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Default Re: The Recipe for a Texans Victory

i think they all counted the two against the Titans as wins and now that does not appear likely..............i think 4 wins is likely for both teams
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Old 10-25-2006   #5
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Default Re: The Recipe for a Texans Victory

Quote:
Originally Posted by hollywood_texan View Post
The Texans have 2 wins so far this year though six games. My call was 1-5 and through six games and to finish 5-11 for 2006.

So, I got to thinking...

Could the Texans win 7 or maybe even 8 games this year?

Then, I really started to think about the Texans recipe for victory. One thing that seems very consistent on both victories this year is that the defense played very good by only allowing 3 and 7 points thru 3 quarters of play at home on both victories. Whereas, in the same time periods, the offense has only scored 6 and 10 points thru 3 quarters of play for the same games. I don't think the Texans have even scored a point yet in the 3rd quarter this year.

Then, in the fourth quarter (or late in the 3rd for the Miami game), the offense shows some offensive spark and scores some TDs. A few TDs are the result of long drives, but there are some that are the result of a short field provided by the defense. This offense has a lot of 3 and outs in a game, not sure what the league average is though.

Having said that, the offense has been relatively consistent all year, particularly Carr and his stats (take out the those INTs at Dallas and he is very consistent). But, I don't see how the offense is playing to a level to carry a game or pull the team out of jam because they are not scoring points consistently during the entire game. Essentially, the offense finally came around in the 4th quarter for the Fins and the Jags.

Which brings me to the conclusion that the biggest reason for the Texans 2 victories is that the defense was playing all 4 quarters and keeping the game close.

I still haven't seen this offense run the 2 minute drill and make a critical drive in the clutch. I think the jury is still out if this offense can score when it has to, not to mention under time constraints.

We should not get too excited about the Texans at this point, the offense still has a lot of room for improvement when it comes to running the football, sustaining long drives at any time during the game, and scoring points through out the game.

Meanwhile, the defense has a lot to work on too. In both victories, the QB of the opposing team was hobbled and not 100%, so they had a big advantage there.

The Texans have 2 wins, but they could be very misleading. We'll find out on the road against the Titans, Giants, and Jags if they are beginning to become legit.
I agree with this thread all the way. Not saying that our team can't pull out wins but it is very realistic to know that there are alot of things that need improvement before we start talking about win streaks and stuff.

For one, we need to go on a win streak first.

Two, with any young team with new this and new that which has never really won in the first place there is going to be some inconsistency.

That being said though, I feel like we can beat the Titans.
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Old 10-25-2006   #6
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Default Re: The Recipe for a Texans Victory

For sure this is a very winnable game. A win against the Titans will give us back to back division wins and will only skyrocket morale and confidence. If you ask me I think confidence is one of the biggest barriers to this team right now. They don't know how to win. The players get so used to losing that they expect it which causes them to think too much and hesitate. A team playing with confidence plays more agressively on both sides of the ball. One unit will see the other unit fighting and play that much harder. We have a ton of talent on our team but they just don't know how to play like winners yet

On the flip side a loss might be a devistating setback and kill our momentum. So in a way you could consider this a pivotal game that could set the course for the rest of the season
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Old 10-25-2006   #7
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Default Re: The Recipe for a Texans Victory

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Originally Posted by Bongo59 View Post
i think they all counted the two against the Titans as wins and now that does not appear likely..............i think 4 wins is likely for both teams
I see at least one against the Titans, Raiders, Browns, Bills, Jets...Colts at hom week 16 (after they have probably clinched home field and wont care). All of those are possible wins. Plus, we did just beat the Jags by 20, I know its unlikley to happen again, but you have to recognize the fact we could beat them again
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Old 10-25-2006   #8
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Default Re: The Recipe for a Texans Victory

Quote:
Originally Posted by StrongArm08 View Post

On the flip side a loss might be a devistating setback and kill our momentum. So in a way you could consider this a pivotal game that could set the course for the rest of the season
In the past I would agree that a loss to the Titans right now would destroy our chances. However, I think we have new found leadership (DeMeco Ryans, Eric Moulds, some could say David Carr) and an old leader (Wong) who are showing our team how to play to their potential.

A loss would hurt our momentum but not our chances of winning a couple more games this season.
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Old 10-25-2006   #9
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Default Turnovers!

Nobody has mentioned this. Miami was an anomoly because Houston was -2 and still won, but change the +2 to even and Jacksonville is a struggle.

Any game where Houston is on the plus side on turnovers is winnable.
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Old 10-25-2006   #10
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Default Re: Turnovers!

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Originally Posted by PoolMaster21 View Post
Nobody has mentioned this. Miami was an anomoly because Houston was -2 and still won, but change the +2 to even and Jacksonville is a struggle.

Any game where Houston is on the plus side on turnovers is winnable.
We have done a good job of limiting our turnovers, but we have only forced about 4 (philly, skins, jags). The only time we had an opportunistic D was 2004 (our best year, coincidence?), we NEED to create more turnovers.
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Old 10-25-2006   #11
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Default Re: The Recipe for a Texans Victory

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Originally Posted by run-david-run View Post
I see at least one against the Titans, Raiders, Browns, Bills, Jets...Colts at hom week 16 (after they have probably clinched home field and wont care). All of those are possible wins. Plus, we did just beat the Jags by 20, I know its unlikley to happen again, but you have to recognize the fact we could beat them again
I for one hope the Colts are fighting for a Wildcard, if not for homefield advantage in the playoffs. I don't want to beat a Colts team that are laying down, that would be an empty win. I want to beat a Colts team that are trying their best to beat us.

I think that will say more about this team, than our W-L record.

To me, it's more important to get better through the year, and not have to rely on facing weaker opponents to get wins. I believe with the team we have, and the coach we have, actually being good enough to beat New England, & Indy by week 15 is a reasonable goal, being that it's ten weeks away till we play Indy. They are the ones who have ruled this division since it's inception, and that should be the bar that we are trying to hurdle.
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Old 10-26-2006   #12
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Default Re: The Recipe for a Texans Victory

Pray.
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