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Old 07-25-2006   #1
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Default A really chilling thought...

I was reading the Who Has More to Prove thread and read the following:

Quote:
Originally Posted by HeartofHouston
<snip>... Better offensive system and a better Offensive coach if he doesnt produce this year then we draft a QB in the 07 draft and give Carr that next year and if he starts to struggle pull him for the rook, if he does a good job then he we keep him in and the decision is up in the air from there..
Two words: Brian Billick.

We're all so happy (at least, I am) about Kubiak, an offensive guru, coming in here and how he's going to breathe life into an offense that looked like a bunch of zombies last year. But Brian Billick was brought into Baltimore for the same basic reason. He's supposed to be an offensive genius, a bigger offensive genius than Kubiak, and he hasn't been able to do squat for that offense in all these years. Granted, he won an SB but he's had years to work with different QB's and make his high powered system work... and... nada.

I also remember how Belichik was brought into Cleveland and sucked wind. Hugh Campbell was supposed to be an offensive genius and the old Oiler fans will remember how that turned out; at least we got Moon out of that deal.

What do y'all think the odds are that Kubiak ends up being a "bust"?
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Old 07-25-2006   #2
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Low. His experience winning alone will not allow it.
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Old 07-25-2006   #3
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Well, just about all coaches "end up" being fired, i.e. busts. The odds of it being in 4 years or less? I'd say low, judging by attitude and leadership as much as track record.
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Old 07-25-2006   #4
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Quote:
What do y'all think the odds are that Kubiak ends up being a "bust"?
I'm not really worried about Kubiak. I've just lost faith in Carr. I really hope things can get turned around though.
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Old 07-25-2006   #5
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It is really hard to predict if Kubiak will be a bust or not.

Sure he has worked at two great organizations, but he wasn't the top dog. Look at many assistant coaches that couldn't cut it at the head coach level. Turner and Wandestat come to mind quickly.

One thing seems certain from what he has said, if a player doesn't perform, that player will be replaced quickly. Look for big changes if it is a rough year.

For a rookie head coach, his first six games are brutal. If he can get through the first six games at .500, I would say that is a great indication of good things to come in the next few years.
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Old 07-25-2006   #6
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Based on his background and experence the odds are with him suceeding. However, anyone and anything can be overcome by circumstances and just bad luck.
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Old 07-25-2006   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hollywood_texan
It is really hard to predict if Kubiak will be a bust or not.

Sure he has worked at two great organizations, but he wasn't the top dog. Look at many assistant coaches that couldn't cut it at the head coach level. Turner and Wandestat come to mind quickly.

One thing seems certain from what he has said, if a player doesn't perform, that player will be replaced quickly. Look for big changes if it is a rough year.

For a rookie head coach, his first six games are brutal. If he can get through the first six games at .500, I would say that is a great indication of good things to come in the next few years.
Everybody sits and talks about how a winning QB has to have "IT", that certain something that makes them a winner and a leader.

I believe the same goes for head coaches. You have brilliant assistants that fail all the time (you might as well add Capers to that list) and I believe its because of their charisma. You have to be a charismatic person that can unite and motivate players. You can speak X's and O's all day, any assistant in this league can speak it with the best of them, but the things that set a great assistant apart from a head coach is his ability to lead. Kubiak has already shown me he has that quality, he says all the right things and seems very approachable and down to earth. You can already see the difference in the players' attitudes.

Also another thing that I think that makes a head coach successful, is to have successful coaches underneath him and not just a whole bunch of "yes men", (Capers).

Kubiak already seems like he's put together a good staff, he kept the assistants that were doing their job, Jon Hoke, Joe Marciano, and Chick Harris and brought along coaches that helped him be successful, people he trusts.

The biggest addition to our staff however was Sherman, who Kubiak really went after and landed.

Kubiak should have been given a shot at head coaching eight years ago (after the SB victories), he is alot more seasoned and experienced them most coaches that get a shot, his résumé is quite impressive.
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Old 07-25-2006   #8
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Two words: Super Bowl

If Kubiak can mirror Billick, then bring it. I can't wait for our first Super Bowl win in 2007.
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Old 07-25-2006   #9
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Billick went to the Super Bowl in a large way because of Marv Lewis. Richard Smith is no Marv.
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Old 07-25-2006   #10
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It wasn't just Marv, but the players they had on that defense, that defense was stacked with veteren leadership and very exciting young defensive stars
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Old 07-25-2006   #11
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Odds are that he fails. But that doesn't really mean much I suppose.

We have 10 new head coaches this season. Several of them former assistants.

By the numbers, more fail then succed just purely because there are more teams that fail to make the playoffs then make it.

So in the end the odds are against every single assistant coach coming into a head coach job ( not just Kubiak ).
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Old 07-25-2006   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carr Bomb
It wasn't just Marv, but the players they had on that defense, that defense was stacked with veteren leadership and very exciting young defensive stars
I thought that kind of went without saying, but ok.
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Old 07-25-2006   #13
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Being a head coach isn't for everyone. Dom Capers (yes I hate bringing him up but oh well) was a pretty good D-Coordinator but when he was put in charge of a whole team he sucked it up twice, so who knows at this point. Everything we've been hearing thusfar sounds very positive, so I firmly believe that Kubiak will be successful for us, but only time will tell.
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Old 07-25-2006   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexansSeminole
Low. His experience winning alone will not allow it.
I would say that just about all assistants that end up head coaches had plenty of experience winning or they wouldn't be getting the head coach jobs.

How many assistants do you know of that were hired as head coaches didn't experience winning to some level?
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Old 07-25-2006   #15
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Don't worry about Kubiak. I know it's going to be weird but he's going to get us a lot of wins, something we're not used to. I can't wait
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Old 07-26-2006   #16
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Brian Billick didn't become a HC with as much winning experience as Kubiak did. He was the OC of the Vikings team that blew the NFC championship game after going 15-1. His first SB appearance was when he was a HC with Baltimore while Kubes has been to multiple at different levels. I don't think you can necessarily compare the two.

As for Baltimore's inability to improve their offense, I think a big part is trying to find that QB that works. They've had a good running game. They've had good line play. They just didn't get anything from the QB. That might change with McNair in town.

Belichek wasn't given a chance in Cleveland and wasn't given personnel to win with. He's done a fair job in New England.
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Old 07-26-2006   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexanFan881
Don't worry about Kubiak. I know it's going to be weird but he's going to get us a lot of wins, something we're not used to. I can't wait
I like the way he speaks the truth. He doesn't hold much back at all and I like it. Capers interviews were always "execute" this "execute" that. Whatever he'd say would never happen. I think Kubs will be awesome compared to Capers, and the season hasn't even started yet.:bananasplit:
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Old 07-26-2006   #18
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I think that we will get at least four or five years out of him. In my book that's not a bust even if there isn't SB in that period.

I think we are taking the same head coach risk that Cleveland and Cinci have taken in the past few years. They also hired an experienced coordinator from a successful program.
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Old 07-26-2006   #19
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I think an assistant getting the head coaching job is a lot like a college player moving up to the Pros. You take a look at what he has done at a lower level, if he looks like a fit you go for it.

At a new level, with all the added pressure, some flourish, some fold.

Ask the question again in 2 years.
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Old 07-26-2006   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexanBacker93
Brian Billick didn't become a HC with as much winning experience as Kubiak did. He was the OC of the Vikings team that blew the NFC championship game after going 15-1.
Still, I would consider 15-1 winning, no matter what happened in the playoffs. Also, I seem to remember that Vikings defense couldn't stop the Giants.
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