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Old 04-22-2006   #1
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Default What I think will happen...

I have been assessing all the most recent activity in terms of what the TV talking heads are saying, and what I feel is the general mood of the players involved and the team officials' comments and actions.

I think we're going to get Bush unless someone offers up a deal. But the bad news is this: I don't think we'll get the draft pick compensation we're thinking we should get for Bush. And I think our front office will take very average (maybe even low) compensation for the top pick in the draft.

It just seems fairly straightforward if you ask me. We'll get Bush unless someone offers up some extra picks, and our team is needing several playmakers to make a real run at a winning season. So, it only makes sense that our team would welcome the opportunity to parlay the top pick into multiple top-of-the-draft picks in order to reduce liability (Bush getting hurt, and then what do you have?) thus acquiring several better-than-average players instead of just one player. I don't see NO, TN, NY, GB, SF, or Oakland trading up for Bush. I see teams past those on the draft order offering to trade up to No. 1...but that leaves us without being able to take the premiere players that are to be had in the top of the draft.

I don't see anybody who would give us that "sweetheart deal" that I have seen some of us wishing for. I see the compensation being average-to-low in value...but our front office would probably take it.

What do ya'll think? I think it's Bush or we're trading down to the middle of the first round with possibly that team's first rounder next year and perhaps a 3rd rounder this year or something similar. We'd get extra picks this year, and have two first rounders next year.
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Old 04-22-2006   #2
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Get Subway dude!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 04-22-2006   #3
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I still think the Jets and 49ers are at least considering making a move up for Bush. The Jets could offer us a deal and the Texans would jump all over it because they are sitting at #4, #29, #35, #71, #97 (untradeable), & #103. There is enough firepower to group some picks together and move up. The 49ers on the other hand would have to give us the #6, #22, and a future pick next year which we all assume would be high.
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Old 04-22-2006   #4
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It looks like we're looking at Mario Williams as the absolute least we will walk out of this draft with.

Bush will get #1 money.... similar to what Alex Smith got last year, not much more if any at all. If that isn't enough for him, we're going to take Mario @ #1.

He won't be there pass N.O.
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Old 04-22-2006   #5
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I'm kinda high on AJ Hawk at the #4 spot. C'mon New York, give us something good, I know you want him.
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Old 04-22-2006   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bckey
I still think the Jets and 49ers are at least considering making a move up for Bush. The Jets could offer us a deal and the Texans would jump all over it because they are sitting at #4, #29, #35, #71, #97 (untradeable), & #103. There is enough firepower to group some picks together and move up. The 49ers on the other hand would have to give us the #6, #22, and a future pick next year which we all assume would be high.
The Jets deal is the best from a Texans fan's standpoint, but I doubt it comes to pass as it's a pretty steep price for them to pay for one player.

The 49er deal is the one that I think has the most potential to be the one ringing on Texans war room phones when we're on the clock, and I don't think it's worth it...but I can see the Texans decision makers actually leaning toward taking it.

If the Jets deal happens, it'd be pretty hard for Texans to pass it up. I just don't see an NFL team pnying up all those picks for one player. I think they want Leinart and then take a chance on a RB with their 29th pick.
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Old 04-22-2006   #7
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What do I think will happen? I dunno.

What do I know? Not much.

I BELIEVE that if the Texans keep the #1 pick, they'll take Bush.

I BELIEVE that Bush is the BPA by a long shot.

I BELIEVE that if we trade down, we'll reap a bounty of draft picks, at least one of whom I THINK will be a stud.

I BELIEVE that the Texans always seem to get the short end of trades and I'VE A BAD FEELING it'll happen again if we trade down.

I HOPE, and I want to BELIEVE that the Texans will do the right thing, which is a question that won't be answered for months, more likely years.

I KNOW that whatever cards the other teams hold, the Texans hold the high kicker and this is not the time to blink.

I KNOW that 2-14 in 2005 does not necessarily mean a losing season in 2006.

So, given all that I don't know and what little I do know, I'm hoping the Texans just draft Bush and he blows everyone's doors off, becomes a fixture on SportsCenter's Top Plays, get us some National respect and MNF games and helps take this team to the Promised Land.

Also, I know this; in seven days a lot of arguments will be settled, new ones will spring up and by the time the season opens at least one board member will have a new moniker.

...and I know it won't be me.
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Old 04-22-2006   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpshafer_1976
I have been assessing all the most recent activity in terms of what the TV talking heads are saying, and what I feel is the general mood of the players involved and the team officials' comments and actions.

I think we're going to get Bush unless someone offers up a deal. But the bad news is this: I don't think we'll get the draft pick compensation we're thinking we should get for Bush. And I think our front office will take very average (maybe even low) compensation for the top pick in the draft.

It just seems fairly straightforward if you ask me. We'll get Bush unless someone offers up some extra picks, and our team is needing several playmakers to make a real run at a winning season. So, it only makes sense that our team would welcome the opportunity to parlay the top pick into multiple top-of-the-draft picks in order to reduce liability (Bush getting hurt, and then what do you have?) thus acquiring several better-than-average players instead of just one player. I don't see NO, TN, NY, GB, SF, or Oakland trading up for Bush. I see teams past those on the draft order offering to trade up to No. 1...but that leaves us without being able to take the premiere players that are to be had in the top of the draft.

I don't see anybody who would give us that "sweetheart deal" that I have seen some of us wishing for. I see the compensation being average-to-low in value...but our front office would probably take it.

What do ya'll think? I think it's Bush or we're trading down to the middle of the first round with possibly that team's first rounder next year and perhaps a 3rd rounder this year or something similar. We'd get extra picks this year, and have two first rounders next year.
Don't agree at all, we are taking either Reggie Bush or Mario Williams at #1 (about 60/40 in favor of Bush at the moment) unless someone blows our minds with a trade offer. They are not about to take a future 1st and a 3rd in order to move down to the middle of the 1st round. They are perfectly happy and very eager to take either Mario or Bush, so they only way they pass on one of them is if they get at least a 2nd, an extra 1st, and a 3rd to move down 3 spots or less so they can still get one of the elite players in the draft, and right now I think the absolute only way they would end up trading would be selecting Bush at #1 then trading him to the Titans/Jets/Packers for Mario Williams and extra picks after they select Mario.
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Old 04-22-2006   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpshafer_1976
So, it only makes sense that our team would welcome the opportunity to parlay the top pick into multiple top-of-the-draft picks in order to reduce liability (Bush getting hurt, and then what do you have?) thus acquiring several better-than-average players instead of just one player.
i dont know-that logic seems kinda strange. Why dont we trade, for example, Andre Johnson to the saints for donte stallworth and some picks because if andre gets hurt- what do you have then?
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Old 04-22-2006   #10
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I'll just quote my alter ego from another post that got buried.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hottoddie
Here's how the draft is going to play out.

If the Texans are unable to get an acceptable offer to trade down, they'll select Mario Williams with the #1 pick.

If they receive a trade proposal to their liking, they'll trade down into the 4-7 range & target in this order, D'Brick, A.J.Hawk, Huff, or Vernon Davis.

Bank on it! I know this, because I consulted with my alter ego.
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Old 04-23-2006   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MorKnolle
Don't agree at all, we are taking either Reggie Bush or Mario Williams at #1 (about 60/40 in favor of Bush at the moment) unless someone blows our minds with a trade offer. They are not about to take a future 1st and a 3rd in order to move down to the middle of the 1st round. They are perfectly happy and very eager to take either Mario or Bush, so they only way they pass on one of them is if they get at least a 2nd, an extra 1st, and a 3rd to move down 3 spots or less so they can still get one of the elite players in the draft, and right now I think the absolute only way they would end up trading would be selecting Bush at #1 then trading him to the Titans/Jets/Packers for Mario Williams and extra picks after they select Mario.
I see a team like San Francisco making an offer, but I just don't see the Titans/Jets/Packers making THAT big of an offer for Bush. Plus, those three teams are perennially in the playoffs, or they at leats have been to the playoffs more than most other AFC teams. So that would mean our next year's first round pick from one of those teams would probably be a lat first rounder, right? Not a good deal for our team if we took that.

I'll say this, and I said it in another thread: The Packers, for some reason, seem (to me) to be the team nobody is talking about. I think they might be a darkhorse. And the more I think about it, the more I think the reason they haven't announced something about Brett Favre is because they are going to try and get Bush in a ploy to better their team with Bush, in a division that runs the ball a lot, and thus lure Brett back. And I think the Packers are telling Favre: Just sit back and watch what we're going to get you on draft day. What other reason could they have for postponing the Favre decision?

I don't think Jets will deal. And I think the other teams--Saints & Titans--have picked their guy and they're happy to stay where they are at.

That's what has me thinking that nobody but the 9ers are going to risk much for Bush. The Packers, a team about to lose their franchise QB (face of their team) are desperate enough to pull the trigger.

I just think we'd get hosed by any team if we took a deal. Wish I could be a "glass is half full" guy...but the Babin pick has got me worried about this year's situation.
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Old 04-23-2006   #12
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Originally Posted by gpshafer_1976
I just think we'd get hosed by any team if we took a deal. Wish I could be a "glass is half full" guy...but the Babin pick has got me worried about this year's situation.
I'm with you...hamstrung by The Politics Of Fear. I've been conditioned to expect the worst on Draft Day.

So here we stand, with superb positioning in a loaded draft. They can't mess this one up, can they?

Sure they can.

Let's hope they prove us wrong.
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Old 04-23-2006   #13
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The 49ers have too many holes to fill to give up three 1st round picks for one player, regardless of how much they want him on their team, and I don't see the Texans moving that far down in the draft. If the 49ers wanted Bush that bad they would have made sure they lost to us back on Jan. 1 and they would have had the #2 pick in the draft behind the Saints and be in a prime position to grab Reggie, rather than sitting at the 6th pick. I also don't see the Jets, Titans, or Packers being a good team next year and I think grabbing the 1st round pick from any of them would give us a top 10-12 pick next year.
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