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Old 04-20-2006   #1
TEXANFAN23435
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Default Trade #1 For "d"

A little sway in my thought process. I've got a good feeling about our offense right now and wonder if creating a monster defense might not be the way to go. My thoughts:

1. N.O. does not hold the trade up trump card, we do. Why? IMO, NYJ or TENN really want Leinart as their QB. Whoever moves first with NO the other will likely make the call to HOU to see what we will want to move down. Neither team will trade up to get RB or VY. The hot choice is ML.

2. If we trade with either team, I think we package our R6 pick in the deal and we could easily get the #3(T) or #4(J) pick plus their R3, R4 this year and next years R1. If this happens then I would proceed with the following:

3. With the #3 or #4 pick, I take DE Mario Williams. He's a freak with speed. If TENN and NYJ are now #1 and #2 the ML and VY are taken. If NO is #3 or #4 D'Brick is gone. The question for other posters would be, if we're #3, do we take D'Brick, Bush or Williams and if we're #4, is it Williams or Bush?

4. With our R2-33 pick, I select LB Carpenter. At 6' 3" his frame will eventually hold 245 to 255 lbs. If it looks like NE will snake him late in R1, then I'm not opposed to bundling our R2-33 and R4-129 picks for a late (Before NE picks) R1 pick. I think Carpenter has more NFL upside than Hawk.

5. That leaves us with 3-R3 picks. Use 2 on the best available DB's. One has to be a DE-CLEATING machine, in the mold of John Lynch. Use the other R3 pick on the best available OL. These would be the picks 65, 66(NO) and 67(TENN) or 68(NYJ). These should be solid contributors.

6. R4 thru R7 picks are used to stock the shelves. Maybe we can find a big and fast diamond in the ruff WR in the remaining picks.

7. To tie this package up on defense, I find a way to secure veteran LB Arrington. As the draft nears, his demands will go down considerably and his talents could be put to very good use here.

If our goal is to run a hybrid 3-4 and 4-3 defense, then the addition of Arrington, Williams, Carpenter and the current players rotating back to their natural positions could prove to be a step in the right direction. It may vault our defense up to being one of the league's best.

Last edited by TEXANFAN23435; 04-20-2006 at 10:27 PM.
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Old 04-20-2006   #2
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Originally Posted by johnny_tlmn
We are so much on the same page. I think we should have gone after Arrington way before Moulds. I know some of ya'll don't approve, but look the man's a monster and he's really the best at his prime of his position, so although we already got Moulds, why not take a good shot at Arrington any takers?!
The reason Arrington hasn't been signed yet is because he wants a contract similar to what Julian Peterson got, that kind of contract ain''t happening in Houston and if you look at his stats he really hasn't lived up to expectations.

Arrington wants a monster contract, Moulds came cheap, the FO made the right decision.
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Old 04-20-2006   #3
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If he didn't get what he wanted when he became available then he certainly isn't going to get it later. Arrington will not sit out a year waiting for his gravey train to roll in. Bottom line is, he's going to have to lower his demands, maybe sign a 1 year deal and prove his value so he can get his ticket punched for that GRAVEY TRAIN. Give me Arrington with something to prove, something to earn and now you have the monster LB our defense needs. Signing Arrington is very doable.
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Old 04-20-2006   #4
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LaVar Arrington isn't going to sign with the Texans. I'm quite confident in that. He's asking for way too big of an asking price. It's no surprise that no one is willing to sign him. I don't remember what the number is, but his contract his way, way up there. He's not worth the money either. He's had one pretty good year, 2002, where he had 11 sacks. The most he's had in any other year was 6. That was in 2003. Last year he played in 13 games. He had 0 sacks. To say this guy is a beast is jumping the gun. If he were the player everyone made him out to be, he would have been the dominating linebacker the Redskins predicted he would be when he was drafted. Even the Redskins, who overpay for every single player on their roster, didn't resign him. That has to tell you something there. Arrington would help us, but he's not going to change the whole perspective on the defense. He wouldn't make the impact a player such as Ray Lewis or Brian Urlacher on a defense. He's a good player, but he's not great.
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Old 04-20-2006   #5
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Back to the topic of trading the #1 for D - that is a very appealing scenario. Equally appealing is Reggie Bush living up to at least 75% of his potential.

When I take a step back and look at these two options after cutting away a lot of the extraneous stuff flying around, I find it is a very difficult decison. I'm glad I don't have to make it. We are lucky enough to have many good options this year; either route can lead to great team success.
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Old 04-20-2006   #6
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Originally Posted by johnny_tlmn
Where's facts?! Any links?! Dude come on, you cannot sit there and say that he is not worth the monster contract, who else?!
OK first off

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...guenum=&id=110

He wants a 7 year 47 mil contract



http://www.profootballtalk.com/rumormill.htm

He turned down 4.4 mil in guaranteed money next year, thinking he can get a bigger pay day.

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=415155

And his Agent is nortorious for making teams over pay, who by the way wants 14 million up front for him.

Bottom line We already finished our free agency and anyone who thinks we are going to land Arrington (who by the way has had multiple injuries, including knee injuries) is living a pipe dream. We don't have any money to sign Lavar.

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Old 04-21-2006   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Runner
Back to the topic of trading the #1 for D - that is a very appealing scenario. Equally appealing is Reggie Bush living up to at least 75% of his potential.

When I take a step back and look at these two options after cutting away a lot of the extraneous stuff flying around, I find it is a very difficult decison. I'm glad I don't have to make it. We are lucky enough to have many good options this year; either route can lead to great team success.
I think this will boil down to 2 things:

a) Can we make a trade and still get Williams and

b) How much is Reggie asking?

I think they want Reggie, but he may be trying to break the bank. He has a good thing going and being the 1st pick has a lot of upside as far as endorsements go. If they ask too much they are going to loose all of that. I still think they are thinking trade down. There is just too much money riding on one player at this point given our needs. I like Reggie, but I really think there are some questions about him. The same is true of Mario. Despite what everyone is saying I think there are problems with all of the potential #1's. If we do trade down to 4 or 5, then I look for the Texans to go after the TE.
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Old 04-21-2006   #8
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Originally Posted by johnny_tlmn
Where's facts?! Any links?! Dude come on, you cannot sit there and say that he is not worth the monster contract, who else?!
Three time SB winning without salary cap considerations Joe Gibbs said he isn't worth a monster contract. Defensive minded Jack Del Rio doesn't want to pay him a monster contract. Big contract, maybe--monster contract, no.
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Old 04-21-2006   #9
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Lets pickup Lavvar Arrington...Trade down and get Mario Williams...Then Bamm we have a explosive D...
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Old 04-21-2006   #10
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Wait a minute...WE DONT HAVE THE MONEY!
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Old 04-21-2006   #11
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Originally Posted by Ibar_Harry
I think this will boil down to 2 things:

a) Can we make a trade and still get Williams and

b) How much is Reggie asking?

I think they want Reggie, but he may be trying to break the bank. He has a good thing going and being the 1st pick has a lot of upside as far as endorsements go. If they ask too much they are going to loose all of that. I still think they are thinking trade down. There is just too much money riding on one player at this point given our needs. I like Reggie, but I really think there are some questions about him. The same is true of Mario. Despite what everyone is saying I think there are problems with all of the potential #1's. If we do trade down to 4 or 5, then I look for the Texans to go after the TE.
From McClain and the chronicle there appear to be rumors of Bush wanting too much.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...n/3803210.html

This has been my gut feel for some time and I have eluded to this in a number of posts. I think money is a real issue with McNair when someone wants too much. I could see Williams pricing himself out of it too. McNair has an image problem within the group of owners. The smaller owners, like Ralph Wilson, are very upset with the more wealthy owners like McNair who they believe live with an entirely different budget. They accuse them of over spending and paying too much for players. McNair might be trying to keep the top draft pick within a certain range, because the 1st draft picks deal is used to negoiate the remaining draftees. If he keeps it down he has obviously done a favor to the other teams as well. I think this factor is in play big time in this particular case.

Bush and his agent have a lot to loose by demanding too much. His endorsements are based on being the number 1 draft pick. I think the Texans have to make a deal before the draft and they know it. They can't draft Bush at number 1 and then try to make a deal. Whoever they draft I believe they will cut a deal before hand. That's the only way it will work. That's what they did with Carr and I believe that's what they will do here or trade if they can't get a deal done before the draft.
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Old 04-21-2006   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ibar_Harry
From McClain and the chronicle there appear to be rumors ...
Dangerous words around here. One of his snippets already has people trying to dump our very low cost, play-making game changer, All-Pro kick returner.
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Old 04-21-2006   #13
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Dangerous words around here. One of his snippets already has people trying to dump our very low cost, play-making game changer, All-Pro kick returner.
That's possible, but I was simply saying he's now saying what I have been saying for sometime about Bush and his demands. I think there is a realistic boundry in part for political reasons that McNair will not cross. Right now I would say Reggie is not the front runner. Again this has nothing to do with what I think of Reggie or his playing ability it has to do with the reality of how much he wants.

I keep saying that he and his agent have a lot to loose by demanding too much. Endorsement wise he is going to be worth a lot more as the number 1 pick. He hurts himself a great deal if he gets too greedy. The old expression a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush is very appropriate in this case.
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Old 04-21-2006   #14
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Look we're not the only ones being squeezed here, Bush is in a pickle too. If current word floating around about his asking price is correct, he's going to lose very badly. I wonder if Bush and his agents really understand that his only chance at being drafted #1 reside squarely with us. Absolutely no one and I mean no one is going to trade up to the #1 spot to pick Bush. That really puts his value in perspective. If Bush and his advisors don't come to terms with this, he may get to carry that NUMBER 5 jersey to the podium as a reflection of where he was picked. The only teams in the 1 thru 5 picks who could swing that contract would be the NYJ and GB. NYJ money is reserved for ML. GB definately has the money and could sit tight until Bush falls to them. Now, does GB need Bush? Or, does GB select Bush to help sway Favre? Also, each time Bush drops I'd venture to say it will cost him about 1.25M per drop on his overall contract.

Now, where does TENN fit into this picture? They want ML in the worst way. ML comes in, Chow can open the entire Play Book and TENN will release McNair. If ML is taken before them, TENN will settle on VY but this means lots of LOVE AND KISSES on Stevie's butt to mend fences and you can bet that after the way they treated him, he'll show BIG BUD exactly where he wants his lips. Now BIG BUD doesn't like the taste of butt on his lips so he's going to be watching HOU and NO very closely.

For Bush, it will come down to this. HOU probably has him on the clock as far as agreeing to contract terms go. If he has not agreed in principle to a contract by Wed, 26 APR 06, Houston makes it known league wide that the #1 pick is up for grabs. This is when it get's very interesting for us. I'd say only NYJ or TENN would have enough to offer but we may not fully understand OAK's, OLD AL'S "Man Crush" on VY until we pick up the phone. What deal could OAK's, OLD AL offer us to move down? I wonder how VY looks in white??? LOL

I'm pumped for this draft and have a morbid curiosity as to where Bush will wind up if we don't take him.

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Old 04-21-2006   #15
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You don't necessarily trade the #1 for "D". You trade it if someone offers you a better value. Simple enough, but still hard for some to understand in here. If the rumored Jets package is available, that's getting close to "better value", IMO.

Drafting for "needs" as opposed to being opportunistic and taking the best talent available is the mentality that leads to decisions in pro sports such as taking Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan, because Portland already had a bright young 2 in Drexler.

If someone's willing to give you the farm for a talent, ala the Vikings for Herschel Walker, you jump on that. The Jets are getting close to that, if the rumor has any substance.
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Old 04-21-2006   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by el toro
The Jets are getting close to that, if the rumor has any substance.
If the Jets offer that, I say take it without question. And never talk to the Jets again, they will probably be pissed.
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