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Old 04-13-2006   #1
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Default Bush advocates -- read and weep

Quote:
"So, Bush it is. Comparisons to Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, and Gale Sayers seem to be coming from everywhere. Bush is a special talent, but those are some of the greatest players of all-time. The Texans cannot practically think that Bush offers more than those players.

As an interesting exercise, look at how those players' teams fared in their first five years after the NFL draft. Those three players were the second, third, and fourth overall selection of the draft, meaning they came to equally un-talented teams:

Faulk: 32-48
Sanders: 40-40
Sayers: 29-38-3

These numbers are somewhat shocking and should make Texans' fans keep their expectations in check. During these five-year periods, these three great backs made a combined 12 Pro Bowls, so their production was clearly not the problem. The simple truth is that a running back is only so valuable.

Those running backs were replacing Roosevelt Potts, Garry James, and Jon Arnett respectively. Bush will be replacing Domanick Davis, who has averaged over 1000 yards a season in his three years. He also is similar in size and style to Bush, making Davis, one of the Texans' better players, completely extraneous next season. Is Bush going to be better than Davis? Certainly, but even if Bush is historically good, the improvement will only be worth so much."
This important data from Fox Sports article to be found here http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5483606.

Let's hope we manage to trade down.
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Old 04-13-2006   #2
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Let's hope we manage to trade down.
Agreed.
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Old 04-13-2006   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nighthawk
This important data from Fox Sports article to be found here http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5483606.

Let's hope we manage to trade down.

Dude, all you need to look at is the teams they were playing for. IMO i feel that we have a better football team than the teams those 3 guys played for. Faulk did eventually win a superbowl with St. Louis and Sanders was on a bad team his whole career. Can you imagin what he would have done if San Fran. would have some how got there hands on him. I say we stick to Bush. Our offense will be so much more explosive with this guy. Forget trading down. Offensive or defensive lineman do not score TD's.
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Old 04-13-2006   #4
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Let's hope we manage to trade down.
Stop torturing yourself, Nighthawk. They're taking Bush, no matter how much crap you dig up, so give it up.
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Old 04-13-2006   #5
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It's time to seriously reconsider your position on an issue when Bobo starts to agree with you.
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Old 04-13-2006   #6
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completely meaningless stats.
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Old 04-13-2006   #7
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Those are good stats. But I think the main point is that you still need good players around a team to win. Those thinking Bush is the be-all and end-all guy who is going to take this team to the Super Bowl will likely be mistaken. Barry Sanders and Gale Sayers didn't have people like Carr, AJ, Moulds, and DD to help them out. Reggie Bush is coming to a team which already looks like a play-off calibure offense (at least on paper). I really believe Bush's situation will be different. Also, Faulk really didn't have a great first 5 years as he was injured, and I don't believe the "greatest show on turf" comes into fruition without him.

But besides the win-loss colomn, you've got to be crazy if you were to say that you didn't want the next Barry Sanders on your team. What do you think would happen to their team's records if they WEREN'T there?
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Old 04-13-2006   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phan1
Those are good stats. But I think the main point is that you still need good players around a team to win. Those thinking Bush is the be-all and end-all guy who is going to take this team to the Super Bowl will likely be mistaken. Barry Sanders and Gale Sayers didn't have people like Carr, AJ, Moulds, and DD to help them out. Reggie Bush is coming to a team which already looks like a play-off calibure offense (at least on paper). I really believe Bush's situation will be different. Also, Faulk really didn't have a great first 5 years as he was injured, and I don't believe the "greatest show on turf" comes into fruition without him.

But besides the win-loss colomn, you've got to be crazy if you were to say that you didn't want the next Barry Sanders on your team. What do you think would happen to their team's records if they WEREN'T there?

You know, I was a huge trade down proponent initially. I thought the Texans had too many holes to fill, and trading #1 was the best way to fill them. Then Koobs and company began systematically filling them.

At first I was outraged at the Sage Rosenfels and Jamaal Cook signings. Then Weaver came on board and took up the spot of run stuffing DE.
Flanagan upgraded the Center spot and Mckinney moved back to his natural position of Guard.
Cowart was signed to hold the Mike down for a while
Then came the Moulds sign/trade.
All of a sudden, I see the holes filling up and the our picks at #33,65 and 66 as having the potential to fill most of the rest. (OL/CB/LB)

Now I hesitate to pass up the best colligate running back I have ever seen play. If we get a sweetheart "Godfather" deal, then I am OK with a trade down. Other than that, I say no dice.

edited for spellign

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Old 04-13-2006   #9
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It's time to seriously reconsider your position on an issue when Bobo starts to agree with you.
LOL, well said.
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Old 04-13-2006   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nighthawk
This important data from Fox Sports article to be found here http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5483606.

Let's hope we manage to trade down.

No team in the NFL would pass on Sayers, Sanders or Faulk. They would all be the consensus #1 pick right now...

1.) Sayers' career ended early - has nothing to do with Bush - they're still talking about Sayers 40 years later.

2.) Barry Sanders had no help. Name 1 single great Lions QB EVER...

3.) Marshall Faulk has a Superbowl win. According to this, we have a 33% chance of going to the Bowl with Reggie.

Guess what that means - we take him #1.
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Old 04-13-2006   #11
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lies, damn lies, and statistics...
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Old 04-13-2006   #12
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3.) Marshall Faulk has a Superbowl win.
and exactly what has Kurt Warner done without a healthy Marshall Faulk?
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Old 04-13-2006   #13
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Originally Posted by DRAMA
No team in the NFL would pass on Sayers, Sanders or Faulk. They would all be the consensus #1 pick right now...
Good Point. Add in the fact that FA is a great place to fill holes and pick up some help, trading the best player in the draft for some extra picks suddenly don't seem as valuable as it once was. It doesn't look like we could get anything more than an extra 2nd rounder by trading down, and it's not like that's going to get us much help either. I don't think Reggie Bush could get us any closer to a Super Bowl than an extra pick in the 2nd round could. Trading down just isn't sexy .
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Old 04-14-2006   #14
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Hehe, you Bush fans are cracking me up. What's your lame explaination for why the Texans are negotiating a contract with Mario Williams? To keep Bush's agent honest? Yeah, right. I can just see the Bush fans lining up after the draft:

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Old 04-14-2006   #15
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I'm beginning to think they should just tell Williams and Bush that we're taking whoever signs for the least amount.
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Old 04-14-2006   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nighthawk
Quote:
"So, Bush it is. Comparisons to Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, and Gale Sayers seem to be coming from everywhere. Bush is a special talent, but those are some of the greatest players of all-time. The Texans cannot practically think that Bush offers more than those players.

As an interesting exercise, look at how those players' teams fared in their first five years after the NFL draft. Those three players were the second, third, and fourth overall selection of the draft, meaning they came to equally un-talented teams:

Faulk: 32-48
Sanders: 40-40
Sayers: 29-38-3

These numbers are somewhat shocking and should make Texans' fans keep their expectations in check. During these five-year periods, these three great backs made a combined 12 Pro Bowls, so their production was clearly not the problem. The simple truth is that a running back is only so valuable.

Those running backs were replacing Roosevelt Potts, Garry James, and Jon Arnett respectively. Bush will be replacing Domanick Davis, who has averaged over 1000 yards a season in his three years. He also is similar in size and style to Bush, making Davis, one of the Texans' better players, completely extraneous next season. Is Bush going to be better than Davis? Certainly, but even if Bush is historically good, the improvement will only be worth so much."
This important data from Fox Sports article to be found here http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5483606.

Let's hope we manage to trade down.
What does this prove? If you want to see how picking a QB vs. a RB with a top 5 pick impacts your team over the next 5 years (or until they leave the team, whichever comes first), here you go:

QBs taken in the top 5 picks since 1987 draft:
Alex Smith (2005, #1, SF: 4-12: 875 yards, 50.9% completions, 1 TD and 11 INTs in 9 games in 1 year with team)
Eli Manning (2004, #1, NYG: 6-10, 11-5: 2402.5 yards, 51.6% completions, 15.0 TDs and 13.0 INTs in 12.5 games in 2 years with team)
Philip Rivers (2004, #4, SD: 12-4, 9-7: 74.0 yards, 56.7% completions, 0.5 TDs and 0.5 INTs in 2.5 games in 2 years with team)
Carson Palmer (2003, #1, Cin: 8-8, 8-8, 11-5: 2244.3 yards, 64.6% completions, 16.6 TDs and 10.0 INTs in 10.0 games in 3 years with team)
David Carr (2002, #1, Hou: 4-12, 5-11, 7-9, 2-14: 2656.0 yards, 57.8% completions, 12.0 TDs and 13.3 INTs in 15.0 games in 4 years with team )
Joey Harrington (2002, #3, Det: 3-13, 5-11, 6-10, 5-11: 2560.5 yards, 54.7% completions, 15.0 TDs and 15.5 INTs in 14.8 games in 4 years with team)
Michael Vick (2001, #1, Atl: 7-9, 9-6-1, 5-11, 11-5, 8-8: 1806.2 yards, 54.1% completions, 10.2 TDs and 7.8 INTs in 11.6 games in 5 years with team)
Tim Couch (1999, #1, Cle: 2-14, 3-13, 7-9, 9-7, 5-11: 2226.2 yards, 59.8% completions, 12.8 TDs and 13.4 INTs in 12.4 games in 5 years with team)
Donovan McNabb (1999, #2, Phi: 5-11, 11-5, 11-5, 12-4, 12-4: 2610.2 yards, 57.0% comletions, 17.4 TDs and 9.8 INTs in 14.0 games in first 5 years with team)
Akili Smith (1999, #3, Cin: 2-14, 4-12, 6-10, 2-14: 553.0 yards, 46.6% completions, 1.3 TDs and 3.3 INTs in 5.3 games in 4 years with team)
Peyton Manning (1998, #1, Ind: 3-13, 13-3, 10-6, 6-10, 10-6: 4123.6 yards, 62.1% completions, 27.6 TDs and 20.0 INTs in 16.0 games in first 5 years with team)
Ryan Leaf (1998, #2, SD: 5-11, 8-8, 1-15: 1222.0 yards, 48.4% completions, 4.7 TDs and 12.0 INTs in 8.7 games in 3 years with team)
Steve McNair (1995, #3, Hou: 7-9, 8-8, 8-8, 8-8, 13-3: 1967.6 yards, 56.2% completions, 10.0 TDs, 7.2 INTs in 11.8 games in first 5 years with team)
Kerry Collins (1995, #5, Car: 7-9, 12-4, 7-9, 4-12: 2076.5 yards, 51.8% completions, 11.8 TDs and 13.5 INTs in 11.3 games in 4 years with team)
Heath Shuler (1994, #3, Was: 3-13, 6-10, 9-7: 801.0 yards, 47.7% completions, 4.3 TDs and 6.3 INTs in 6.3 games in 3 years with team)
Drew Bledsoe (1993, #1, NE: 5-11, 10-6, 6-10, 11-5, 10-6: 3669.6 yards, 56.0% completions, 21.6 TDs and 17.6 INTs in 15.2 games in first 5 years with team)
Rick Mirer (1993, #2, Sea: 6-10, 6-10, 8-8, 7-9: 2273.5 yards, 53.4% completions, 10.3 TDs and 14.0 INTs in 13.8 games in 4 years with team)
Jeff George (1990, #1, Ind: 7-9, 1-15, 9-7, 4-12: 2387.8 yards, 57.0% completions, 10.3 TDs and 11.5 INTs in 13.0 games in 4 years with team)
Troy Aikman (1989, #1, Dal: 1-15, 7-9, 11-5, 13-3, 12-4: 2725.4 yards, 62.0% completions, 13.8 TDs and 13.2 INTs in 13.6 games in first 5 years with team)
Vinny Testaverde (1987, #1, TB: 4-11, 5-11, 5-11, 6-10, 3-13: 2453.2 yards, 51.1% completions, 12.6 TDs and 19.2 INTs in 12.4 games in first 5 years with team)

RBs taken in the top 5 picks since 1987 draft:
Ronnie Brown (2005, #2, Mia: 9-7: 1139 total yards and 5 TDs in 15 games in 1 year with team)
Cedric Benson (2005, #4, Chi: 11-5: 275 total yards and 0 TDs in 9 games in 1 year with team)
Carnell Williams (2005, #5, TB: 11-5: 1259 total yards and 6 TDs in 14 games in 1 year with team)
LaDanian Tomlinson (2001, #5, SD: 5-11, 8-8, 4-12, 12-4, 9-7: 1950.6 total yards and 16.0 TDs in 15.8 games per season in 5 years with team)
Jamal Lewis (2000, #5, Bal: 12-4, 10-6, 7-9, 10-6, 9-7: 1705.5 total yards and 8.5 TDs in 15.0 games per season in first 5 years with team)
Edgerrin James (1999, #4, Ind: 13-3, 10-6, 6-10, 10-6, 12-4: 1638.2 total yards and 10.4 TDs in 13.3 games per season in first 5 years with team)
Ricky Williams (1999, #5, NO: 3-13, 10-6, 7-9: 1407.0 total yards and 8.8 TDs in 13.5 games per season in 3 years with team)
Curtis Enis (1998, #5, Chi: 4-12, 6-10, 5-11: 641.7 total yards and 2 TDs in 11.3 games per season in 3 years with team)
Ki-Jana Carter (1995, #1, Cin: 7-9, 8-8, 7-9, 3-13: 280.5 total yards and 4.3 TDs in 8.8 games per season in 4 years with team)
Marshall Faulk (1994, #2, Ind: 8-8, 9-7, 9-7, 3-13, 3-13: 1624.8 total yards and 10.2 TDs in 15.4 games per season in 5 years with team)
Garrison Hearst (1993, #3, Pho/Ari: 7-9, 8-8, 4-12: 604.3 total yards and 1.3 TDs in 10.3 games per season in 3 years with team)
Blair Thomas (1990, #2, NYJ: 6-10, 8-8, 4-12, 8-8: 620.5 total yards and 1.8 TDs in 12.8 games per season in 4 years with team)
Barry Sanders (1989, #3, Det: 7-9, 6-10, 12-4, 5-11, 10-6: 1657.6 total yards and 13.6 TDs in 14.6 games per season in first 5 years with team)
Alonzo Highsmith (1987, #3, Hou: 9-6, 10-6, 9-7: 496.7 total yards and 3.3 TDs in 13.3 games per season in 3 years with team)
Brent Fullwood (1987, #4, GB: 5-9-1, 4-12, 10-6: 643.7 total yards and 3 TDs in 13.3 games per season in 3 years with team)

20 QBs total record (78 total seasons, 3.9 seasons per player): 542-704-1 (.435)
15 RBs total record (51 total seasons, 3.4 seasons per player): 390-421-1 (.481)

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Old 04-14-2006   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hottoddie
Hehe, you Bush fans are cracking me up. What's your lame explaination for why the Texans are negotiating a contract with Mario Williams? To keep Bush's agent honest? Yeah, right. I can just see the Bush fans lining up after the draft:

:brickwall :brickwall :brickwall :brickwall
Where are the negotiations with Vince? Most likely happening in Nashville, Manhattan, Oakland, or Phoenix.
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Old 04-14-2006   #18
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Where are the negotiations with Vince? Most likely happening in Nashville, Manhattan, Oakland, or Phoenix.
It appears that they're not negotiating with him. So what? If you're implying that I'm a VY fan, you're barking up the wrong tree. For a while there, I was believing that the Texans were more interested in VY than Bush. I'm still intrigued by his potential, but it's starting to appear to me that the Texans are not interested in him.
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Old 04-14-2006   #19
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I knew I should like you Mork, those are some interesting stats. A good writer, or a good statistitian can make anything look like anything. But, basically, the draft is a crapshoot, and currently Reggie Bush seems to have the highest potential for our seem and will likely make an imediate impact. Everyone knows that any one player will never make an impact, and in all likelyhood, many players will never make their full potential.

Can't we all just get along?
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Old 04-14-2006   #20
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Originally Posted by Texans86
I knew I should like you Mork, those are some interesting stats. A good writer, or a good statistitian can make anything look like anything. But, basically, the draft is a crapshoot, and currently Reggie Bush seems to have the highest potential for our seem and will likely make an imediate impact. Everyone knows that any one player will never make an impact, and in all likelyhood, many players will never make their full potential.

Can't we all just get along?
Just FYI, Mork was simply reinforcing that crapshoot idea, and saved me the trouble of pointing out just how thoroughly irrelevant Nighthawk's inferred comparison was.
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