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Old 03-16-2006   #1
Porky
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Default The second and third rounds...a treatise.

Okay, I keep hearing that this team wants to build via the draft. We have three picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. These rounds SHOULD make up the real meat of your team, ie -your starters, or at least key contributers....and an occasional pro-bowler doesn't hurt. In trying to figure out why this team is at the place it is, it doesn't take long to see that the second and third rounds have been abject failures.

I decided to take a couple of random teams and compare thier 2nd and 3rd rounds over the last fours years to ours. I wanted to choose teams that seem to do well, bounce back from down yrs, and also pick lower than us in those same rounds. I thought the comparison might be enlightening. This also doesn't include trades, so doesn't analayze trading away 2nd and 3rd rounders for Babin, or Pbuch, which makes this look even worse.

Texans:
2002
2nd rd - Jabar Gaffney WR Florida
2nd rd- Chester Pitts G San Diego State
3rd rd - Fred Weary C Tennessee
3rd rd - Charles Hill DT Maryland

2003:
2nd rd - Bennie Joppru TE Michigan
3rd rd - Antwan Peek LB Cincinnati
3rd rd - Seth Wand T Northwest Missouri State
3rd rd Dave Ragone QB Louisville

Suplemental:

2nd rd - Tony Hollings

2004:
NONE

2005:
3rd rd Vernand Morency RB Oklahoma State

If you don't include the trades that is 10 picks in four yrs (14 picks including trades), and we have exactly ONE plus type player in Pitts, and one jury is still out in Peek. Morency on this team at least, will never be more than a backup due to Bush. Counting plus players, that is a 1 in 10 ratio, or 10% that are Plus average.

Now, let's compare with a couple of others:

Carolina Panthers:
2002:
2nd - DeShaun Foster RB UCLA
3rd -Will Witherspoon LB Georgia

2003:
2nd Bruce Nelson C Iowa
3rd - Mike Seidman TE UCLA

2004:
2nd - Keary Colbert WR USC
3rd - Travelle Wharton T South Carolina

2005:
2nd - Eric Shelton RB Louisville
3rd Evan Mathis G Alabama

That's eight picks. Wharton, Colbert, Foster and Witherspoon are all in the + catagory, and all start. That's a 50% plus avg.

Next, let's look at the Steelers:

2002:
2nd -Antwaan Randle El WR Indiana
3rd - Chris Hope DB Florida State

2003:
2nd - Alonzo Jackson DE Florida State

2004:
2nd - Ricardo Colclough DB Tusculum
3rd - Max Starks T Florida

2005:
2nd - Bryant McFadden DB Florida State
3rd Trai Essex T Northwestern

That is 7 picks compared to our 10. I get 3 Plus avg players in that group, a roughly 40% ratio.

So, it's easy to see where our problem is. We have a 10% hit ratio in rounds 2 and 3 which is histroically pathetic, while a couple of other teams chosen at random have a 40 and 50% hit ratio on plus players with fewer picks, while picking lower in those same rounds, in those same years.

This doesn't include trades, or his record in FA. Yet, Casserly is allowed to keep his job? Can someone please explain this madness? :brickwall
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Old 03-16-2006   #2
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I agree with you but i would move our ration up to 30 % and mayb 40 if jopporu can do something this year
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Old 03-16-2006   #3
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I'm always uneasy when statistics, drafts, trades, ... are cherry-picked to prove a point ....
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Old 03-16-2006   #4
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Originally Posted by Mathis13
I agree with you but i would move our ration up to 30 % and mayb 40 if jopporu can do something this year
My ratio includes guys that I feel are better than avg at this position NOW, or at the very least solid starters....so called Plus players. Other than Pitts, who arguably fits that description, you are saying two others are over avg? Who might that be?
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Last edited by Porky; 03-16-2006 at 12:09 PM.
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Old 03-16-2006   #5
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Nice analysis. Its a good way to look at things. Hopefully we will make the right picks this year.
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Old 03-16-2006   #6
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porky man i couldn't agree more...casserly has shown that he is more willing to trade out of the meat of the draft in order not to have to make a hard decisions for this organization...this and his inability to get us a number 2 reciever is why i still do not understand why he is still here as our GM
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Old 03-16-2006   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Porky
Okay, I keep hearing that this team wants to build via the draft. We have three picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. These rounds SHOULD make up the real meat of your team, ie -your starters, or at least key contributers....and an occasional pro-bowler doesn't hurt. In trying to figure out why this team is at the place it is, it doesn't take long to see that the second and third rounds have been abject failures.
I don't think you can totally lay the failures of past drafts on the current organization. The previous coaching staff had a lot of input into those decisions (probably too much). And the previous staff did a poor job of developing almost all of the players, IMO. Most paid for their sins with their dismissals.

A new staff means a different set of eyes to evalute players, and a different set of hands to mold them into NFL players. Who's to say a different set of coaches could not have gotten better results from these players? And from what I've gathered over the past few months, Casserly has been more of a facilitator for the coaches on draft day (not a good one, mind you). These weren't necessarily his guys on draft day, because he's not really an X's & O's guy.

What's changed? I expect it's Kubiak that is shopping for the groceries now, and on April 29th. I think Casserly is still here to help guide Kubiak through the nuts & bolts of the organization. Charley could be gone by training camp.
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Old 03-16-2006   #8
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IMO, I don't think these picks are as bad as they seem. Gaffney was a pretty decent WR. Last year, Pitts, Weeary, and Peek were starters. Joppru has been injured, and I can't really blame the guy who brought him in for that. Ragone is a pretty decent back-up QB. I would have liked to have seen him and Tony play more in the second half of last season.

I really think it was how the players were used, or not used, more than anything else last year. You can have get the best players, but if the coach can't do anything with it, you still won't win.

Also, I predict that this next year, we will see Weary, Wand, Peek, Joppru, and Pitts starting and adding to the team. If my prediction is right, we could see some redemption from CC...
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Old 03-16-2006   #9
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Interesting.

Begs lots of questions though.

The age old: Is it the players or the system and coaching?

It is easier to incorporate rookies into an environment that is stable and has veterans who teach them the ropes. For example, does Jabar do better for another team if he has veterans helping him out and being solid options along side him and a more experienced QB?

It has been my experience that when you play on a bad team, you can kinda shine through if it doesn't get too ugly, but when you play on good teams with better players, everybody looks a lot better.

Hard to do the alternative histories of what woulda happened if this guy was drafted here, there or wherever. That is why people tend to blanketly label draft "busts" or "hits", even if in the big scheme of things there are few guys that would be busts anywhere they woulda gone, or hits anywhere they woulda gone. In sports, just like in life, having people fit into a good situation that suits them really can make a huge difference in performance.
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Old 03-16-2006   #10
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That list is distrubing. The 2002 3rd round is just terrible terrible. Now it all makes sense.
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Old 03-16-2006   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texans_Chick
Interesting.

Begs lots of questions though.
....
Nicely said! You saved me some typing.
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