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Old 03-13-2006   #1
Haams
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Default How far are we willing to trade?

I was just wondering what our feelings were about multiple trades and what the logistics behind it were. There seems to be a lot of talent out there that could help our team a lot. Why not drop down to the top 5 somewhere - see if Reggie or VY are somehow still available - if not drop down a few more spots. From all that I hear and see it seems like Reggie, VY, Mario, D'Brick, AJ, and that fast TE who's name I just forgot, would all be an upgrade to our team. I see us getting the most value for our pick by actually selecting in the 7-10 range and being able to add multiple players to line up beside our stud.

In this scenario taking Reggie seems to be the worst possible choice - not because he isn't a great player, but because he's the most coveted. If we take Reggie, we're getting nothing else other than that single player. We are then replacing one of our best players with an untested rookie and expecting his small frame to carry the franchise. Seems like we're in a position where we need to come out of this offseason with many small upgrades rather than one large one (unless we take VY, in which case I'm OK with it.)
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Old 03-13-2006   #2
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RBBC = Running Back By Comittee
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Old 03-13-2006   #3
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RBBC = Running Back By Comittee
I don't like that. Especially for a #1. For that I want an Earl Campbell or an Edgerrin James.
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Old 03-13-2006   #4
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id say the lowest we would accept is 7-8 ish. they would have to give up players or lots of picks and we'd still get a shot at davis, hawk, or at worst some1 like huff

however if some1 like denver offered 22,29,61,etc it may be considered
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Old 03-13-2006   #5
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No multiple trades. One trade no lower than 5.

If I dont get either:

Bush
Young
D'Brick
Mario
Hawk

im going to cry.
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Old 03-13-2006   #6
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Originally Posted by Haams
I don't like that. Especially for a #1. For that I want an Earl Campbell or an Edgerrin James.
But he will most likely be on the field for all or almost all of the offensive plays. He might not always be lined up as a running back, but he will be on the field.
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Old 03-13-2006   #7
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Originally Posted by THE NFL DRAFT
No multiple trades. One trade no lower than 5.

If I dont get either:

Bush
Young
D'Brick
Mario
Hawk

im going to cry.
You don't think we can trade twice and still get one of those guys from your list with a lower pick? That's five right there and the addition of Leinart and Cutler moves us up to 7 already.
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Old 03-13-2006   #8
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Originally Posted by Haams
You don't think we can trade twice and still get one of those guys from your list with a lower pick? That's five right there and the addition of Leinart and Cutler moves us up to 7 already.
The "trade twice" sounds cool, but realistically, has it been done before? ... Say, #1 or #2 trades twice and stays within the top 10? Top 15, even? Not being sarcastic, I just don't know. Anyone?
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Old 03-13-2006   #9
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Originally Posted by Haams
You don't think we can trade twice and still get one of those guys from your list with a lower pick? That's five right there and the addition of Leinart and Cutler moves us up to 7 already.
First of all, I dont like Cutler. He is a hype machine, and I never thought he should be in the top 10. Round 1, ok. But top 5? Top 10? No.

2nd of all, If you can trade down twice in the top 7, and find trading partners, who are willing to give up alot, then go for it. But that is just unrealistic.

I say just stay put, and take Bush or Young. Thats all there is to it.
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Old 03-13-2006   #10
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Originally Posted by jerek
The "trade twice" sounds cool, but realistically, has it been done before? ... Say, #1 or #2 trades twice and stays within the top 10? Top 15, even? Not being sarcastic, I just don't know. Anyone?
I would like to know if its been done before, but I don't think it's unrealistic. Obviously Bush and VY are highly valued commodities, we should be able to fairly easily move into the #4 with the Jets or something along those lines. After that we are in the position of not having to be too picky about what position we take - we need help everywhere. From that #4 spot I would think we could trade again with a team who covets a certain position. If everything worked according to plan I think we could have at least three starters, or Reggie.
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Old 03-13-2006   #11
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Originally Posted by Haams
I would like to know if its been done before, but I don't think it's unrealistic. Obviously Bush and VY are highly valued commodities, we should be able to fairly easily move into the #4 with the Jets or something along those lines. After that we are in the position of not having to be too picky about what position we take - we need help everywhere. From that #4 spot I would think we could trade again with a team who covets a certain position. If everything worked according to plan I think we could have at least three starters, or Reggie.
I'm not aware of a team making a double trade down like that, but I haven't checked into it thoroughly either so it might have happened. I don't think the Texans would look to trade below #5. As Casserly has said there is a group of elite players at the top of this draft and they want to make sure they get one of them still. Reggie Bush, Mario Williams, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, A.J. Hawk, Michael Huff, and Vernon Davis could all be considered elite prospects at their position that could definitely provide an upgrade for our team, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and/or Jay Cutler could be added as a possible upgrade, so the Texans want to make sure they stay high enough to get one of them.

That said, I think since we do have the #1 and are in a position to be able to take any one of them, I think certain guys would not be considered a high enough value to be our top guy in the draft, whether it be because they are not a super elite prospect at their position or simply their position itself sn't valued high enough. I think this knocks Vernon Davis (great TE, but TE is not a valuable enough position), A.J. Hawk (not sure about his status of being truly elite, and LB isn't a valuable enough position), Michael Huff (not really an elite enough prospect and not sure on which position he is, but CB and definitely FS aren't valuable enough), and the QBs (Kubes and the FO sound like they are confident enough in David Carr that I don't see them taking a QB this high in the draft, and with them signing Rosenfels I don't see them drafting a QB later with the intention of them being our #2. I don't consider Rosenfels a very good #2 QB, but I think that's what the team is thinking by signing him). That leaves Reggie Bush, Mario Williams, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Reggie Bush is a unique athlete and is definitely head and shoulders above the other RB prospects, RB is not a huge need for us but Bush is supposed to be good enough that we (along with any other team in the league) see him as the #1 overall guy and are looking at taking him. Mario Williams is a freak of an athlete and is definitely head and shoulders above the other DE prospects in this draft, and up until signing Weaver DE was definitely a need of ours, I think Mario is good enough to still consider him with our top pick but the chances of them doing that is slimming. D'Brickashaw is the best LT prospect, but I don't see him being all that much better of an overall OT prospect compared to a couple other guys in this draft, and while OL is a need of ours I don't think they value him high enough to target him with their top pick.

I see that basically leaving just Reggie Bush for consideration at the #1 pick. I think they view Mario high enough that they'd take a decent trade to move down as long as they ensure getting him, but his value is rising and with the Saints losing Darren Howard and likely signing Drew Brees, I think they will likely take Mario at #2 if they don't trade down, so that doesn't leave us any room to trade down and have any certainty of getting Mario. I think they value D'Brick high enough that they'd take a pretty hefty trade to move down as long as they are assured of getting him. However, they'd likely have to stay in the top 4 to ensure Mario or D'Brick since so many of those top teams are securing QBs, and I don't see the Saints, Titans, or Jets making much of an offer, definitely not big enough to get them to trade down and target D'Brick. I think the other guys in the aforementioned group are good enough that they'd be willing to trade down ensuring they get one of them if they're offered that "godfather deal", meaning a future 1st and probably two 2nds and maybe another pick or player in there, and I don't see anyone giving up that kind of trade.

I have long been an advocate of trading down, but at this point with our free agent signings, changes in prospect values, and key signings of other teams at the top of the draft, I really don't see that happening. I think a big-time trade offer (i.e. a future 1st, one 2nd, a 3rd, and maybe another pick or player) could entice the Texans to move down to #4 or maybe #5 to get Mario or D'Brick, but as I said I don't see that kind of trade being offered by any of those teams.
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Old 03-14-2006   #12
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Originally Posted by MorKnolle
As Casserly has said there is a group of elite players at the top of this draft and they want to make sure they get one of them still. Reggie Bush, Mario Williams, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, A.J. Hawk, Michael Huff, and Vernon Davis could all be considered elite prospects at their position that could definitely provide an upgrade for our team, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and/or Jay Cutler could be added as a possible upgrade
This means we can trade into the top 8, doesn't it? And mightn't there be another couple guys you'd rank highly? D. Hall, maybe Ngata--I mean, when you look at the top prospects the group looks pretty good all the way to 15 or more.

My guess is we'd feel comfortable with a good value trade so long as we stayed in top 8-10, but ONLY if we pick up significant new picks this year.

Last edited by Nighthawk; 03-14-2006 at 06:50 AM.
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Old 03-14-2006   #13
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We trade down I doubt we go much farther than 6 or 7. No reason to. The thought is we would need to grab D'Brick, Mario, or Hawk. The latter two would be best because defense is a major area of need. Looking at our OL from last year yeah it was bad, but we now have a solid LT and need a mobile roadgrader at RT. Weigert, Wand, and a rookie could all battle for that. Chris Chester would battle for C and G. Mario would improve our defense tremedously and Hawk would be solid, but we would have way to much money tied up in LBs which is never smart. Right now I am leaning toward us having a nice bit of money tied up in RBs. A little different from the Denver system, but hey Kubiak is his own man.
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Old 03-15-2006   #14
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Originally Posted by Nighthawk
This means we can trade into the top 8, doesn't it? And mightn't there be another couple guys you'd rank highly? D. Hall, maybe Ngata--I mean, when you look at the top prospects the group looks pretty good all the way to 15 or more.

My guess is we'd feel comfortable with a good value trade so long as we stayed in top 8-10, but ONLY if we pick up significant new picks this year.
What D.Hall are you thinking of? Ngata and a few others are certainly very good prospects, but not as elite as the ones I mentioned, plus Ngata is not a consideration for the Texans so they wouldn't group him that high. Certainly DeAngelo Williams and LenDale White could be added right under that group along with others, but they aren't as elite of prospects, and as I later explained, some of them (i.e. Hawk and Vernon Davis) are at positions that aren't as hgih of a value or at positions we don't need as much, so that rules some of them out, and as I said I think the decision was basically between Bush and Mario with D'Brick getting a little thought too, but with the Weaver signing I think it knocks the chances of Mario down a lot. Like I said if we get a really huge deal then I could see us trading down in the top 7-8 (an extra 1st, two 2nds, and something else then they'd consider it, but I don't see a deal like that being offered, but if it does we'd be foolish to not take it. I could see them moving down but staying in the top 3-4 I taking less of a deal because they should be able to get Bush, Mario or D'Brick still, but I doubt the Saints, Titans, or Jets would give up much to move up at this point unless the Jets really fall in love with Bush.
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Old 03-15-2006   #15
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I haven't ruled out Mario yet. Yes we signed Weaver but we still have no one proven to play the other side and we have no depth at end. If Weaver went down during the season the Texans would be in a world of hurt. The Texans are more likely to draft another end in a later round but I don't think they have ruled out Mario with the first just yet. USC pro day will probably be the determining factor in what we do. Excellent workouts from both Leinert and Bush could be just enough to put the Raiders, Jets, and Titans into a frenzy to move up for one of them. Vince could do the same thing with his pro day workout. And moving up to #2 with NO doesn't guarantee a team their player because another team could jump ahead of them with us and take him.
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