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Old 02-20-2006   #1
BeReal
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Default Peter King Article

Did you guys read the article? Here's the link if you have not......

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...mqb/index.html

Very interesting to say the least from what I would consider a credible source. Bush still seems to be the front runner.

"And from what I hear, new coach Gary Kubiak is already quietly telling good friends like Mike Shanahan that the Texans will take Bush.)"

-- Peter King
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Old 02-20-2006   #2
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Take Bush or trade down......Mmmm...both seem like a winner for different reasons. No problem here either way....preffer the trade down, but it's all good.
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Old 02-20-2006   #3
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Default Speculation and blather.

Thanks for the article.

Personally, I think King's estimate is not correct. IMO, the likelihood of things happening with the first pick is Bush, then the trade down, then Vince. I think getting Vince is the least likely scenario given at least the public statements about Carr and wanting to win immediately.

I think the Vince talk is: 1. Idle talk to convince people we might take QB so that if there are trade offers, they come to us; 2. Something to placate the Houston fanbase, to say that the Texans are seriously considering Vince, but we took Bush instead because after much consideration, we considered him BPA.

I think CC would be very interested in a trade down but I don't believe he will get enough value, and a high enough swap to justify getting out of the pick.
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Old 02-20-2006   #4
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Funny... I hope we can put the issue of whether durability is a question to rest? Casserly (not the most stout reference) and his scouts aren't sure if he can handle the load either. He could still be great as a 17touch guy like they say, however. He might be LT or Gale Sayers, he might not.
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Old 02-20-2006   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texans_Chick
Thanks for the article.

Personally, I think King's estimate is not correct. IMO, the likelihood of things happening with the first pick is Bush, then the trade down, then Vince. I think getting Vince is the least likely scenario given at least the public statements about Carr and wanting to win immediately.
You're welcome.

Correct me if I'm wrong though, but isn't that what King said? He didn't go in order of what was most likely.

1) Trading the pick was only %5 chance of happening.

2) Bush %75 chance

3) Young %20
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Old 02-20-2006   #6
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I'm not a fan of King. Blowhard who always thinks he knows it all but doesn't. His Brick scenario isn't even the top trade down scenario from what I have heard. I think trading down for Mario has much more of a chance and from what I hear from the talking heads on some of the radio stations lately, D'Brick isn't something the Texans want to do. I think at this point it is all speculation.
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Old 02-20-2006   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeReal
You're welcome.

Correct me if I'm wrong though, but isn't that what King said? He didn't go in order of what was most likely.

1) Trading the pick was only %5 chance of happening.

2) Bush %75 chance

3) Young %20
Texans_Chick thinks that there's a greater chance of the Texans trading the pick than selecting Vince Young. I agree with her on this.

Peter King thinks the Texans are 4 times more likely to take Young than trade down. Of course, math and logic have never been King's strong points. Stick with the rumormongering, Petey.
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Old 02-20-2006   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeReal
You're welcome.

Correct me if I'm wrong though, but isn't that what King said? He didn't go in order of what was most likely.

1) Trading the pick was only %5 chance of happening.

2) Bush %75 chance

3) Young %20
What you just said is correct about what King said. But what I think is likely to be the percentages if I were going that way is more like:

Bush 80%
Trade down about 18%
Vince 2%

20% Young is way too high. And given our needs and CC's wheelingdealing nature, I am thinking of the interest of trading the pick would be higher than 5%--that the biggest deterrent to it is probably a lack of value, but I really think the Texans would be open to it if they trading partner also had a high pick and offered a lot of value.
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Old 02-20-2006   #9
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Oh, I argree. Trading down is much more likely than drafting Vince. I also believe trading down is the only way we would take Vince. IMO I can't see us taking him at #1, when in all likelyhood we could land him at #4.

But after reading the article, I'm just wondering what is Bush's target weight? 210? 215? And at what weight would not effect his speed negatively?
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Old 02-20-2006   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texans_Chick
I really think the Texans would be open to it if they trading partner also had a high pick and offered a lot of value.
I think the Texans preference is to trade the pick if they can get a reasonable offer. Of course what is reasonable is subject to debate to say
the least. But I don't think they would require a "godfather offer", one definition being an offer too good to pass on, even if the Texans preferred
not to trade the pick. Problem is, potential trading partners are falling by the
wayside. Latest example of this is news that Pennington is unwilling to negotiate with the Jets, a prime trade partner for the Texans, and they may therefor have to cut him and take a big cap hit in the neck. This leaves them in a weaker positon to do a deal with the #4 overall, let alone the #1.
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Old 02-20-2006   #11
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Sorry, but this maybe a little off topic.

If a team cuts a guy, his salary still counts against the CAP. But does he still get paid the rest of his salary? I thought that when an NFL team cuts someone, they are not liable for the rest of the contract except the signing bonus.
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Old 02-20-2006   #12
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that's right. teams are only responsible for the signing bonus when they cut or trade a player because they already paid it to them up front.
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Old 02-20-2006   #13
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But the player's salary still counts against the CAP even though they don't have to pay it? I didn't know it worked that way, seems a little weird to me. So in essence, the salary CAP is not what a team actually paid out, but more of what it would have if it kept all of it's contracts?
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Old 02-20-2006   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Toro
I hope we can put the issue of whether durability is a question to rest?
Unfortunely, Bush's durability issues will not be put to rest until he suits up and takes some lumps from a 235+ lb. outside linebacker with a nasty disposition. And, make no mistake about it, allot of NFL outside linebackers will be able to run him down. I say outside linebackers because I doubt they will be running Bush between the tackles.
Quote:
"He didn't do it in college, and you don't know if he can do it in the NFL. I guess here's what I would say: Is Randy Moss, ability-wise, worth the No. 1 pick in a draft? I think you'd have to say yes, based on ability and nothing else -- and he'll touch the ball eight or nine times in a game. Sometimes you have to look at how a guy can affect a game. When I came back from scouting him, I told [owner] Bob [McNair], 'The coach will have to go on the board and tell us how he's going to use him.' If he's a 17-touch-a-game guy [touching it 17 times rushing, receiving and returning combined, on average], is he worth it?''?
The difference is, we are not looking at a Randy Moss type player. Bush would be used more like Brian Westbrook is for the Eagles. Moss is setup on the outside and sent deep, were the chances of him taking a direct hit are slim. Until this year (groin), Moss has been injury free. Westbrook on the other hand lines up in the backfield or, sometimes, slotted and takes direct hits from outside linebacker and strong safeties on a regular basis. I am not sure about his duribility record but, I know that Westbrook (5'8", 203 Lb) has been injured in the past and finished last season on the IR. The question should be "Is Brian Westbrook a no. 1 pick?".
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Old 02-20-2006   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeReal
But the player's salary still counts against the CAP even though they don't have to pay it? I didn't know it worked that way, seems a little weird to me. So in essence, the salary CAP is not what a team actually paid out, but more of what it would have if it kept all of it's contracts?
Not exactly. Any unprorated signing bonuses which have not been accounted for on the cap have to be accounted for. Any salaries which have not been paid are not paid to the player and do not go on the cap.

As an example--a player signs a 5 year contract with a $2 mil per year salary and $10 mil signing bonus. The team is allowed to prorate the signing bonus over the life of the contract so it counts $2 mil per year on the cap for accounting purposes even though it has all been paid--so if the player stays for the whole contract, his cap hit is $4 mil per year--$2 mil of salary plus $2 mil of prorated signing bonus. If the player is cut after the 1st year, none of the future salaries must be paid, but the unprorated signing bonus goes on the cap so after year 1--$8 mil, after year 2--$6 mil, after year 3--$4 mil and after year 4--$2 mil. That is why in some instances it is more expensive to cut a player than to keep him. From the example above, the player would count $4 mil on the cap to keep after year 1 and $8 mil to cut. This is the situation for Gary Walker right now.
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Old 02-20-2006   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wharton
Unfortunely, Bush's durability issues will not be put to rest until he suits up and takes some lumps from a 235+ lb. outside linebacker with a nasty disposition. And, make no mistake about it, allot of NFL outside linebackers will be able to run him down. I say outside linebackers because I doubt they will be running Bush between the tackles.

The difference is, we are not looking at a Randy Moss type player. Bush would be used more like Brian Westbrook is for the Eagles. Moss is setup on the outside and sent deep, were the chances of him taking a direct hit are slim. Until this year (groin), Moss has been injury free. Westbrook on the other hand lines up in the backfield or, sometimes, slotted and takes direct hits from outside linebacker and strong safeties on a regular basis. I am not sure about his duribility record but, I know that Westbrook (5'8", 203 Lb) has been injured in the past and finished last season on the IR. The question should be "Is Brian Westbrook a no. 1 pick?".
We could on all day with comparisons to other players . . . and it's a trap. If you don't like Bush, you're going to compare him to certain players to make your case. If you're pro-Bush, you're going to list other players to compare him to.

I think Reggie Bush plays like Reggie Bush, and Vince Young plays like Vince Young. I've compared Vince Young to Michael Vick before, and the response, for the most part was correct.
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Old 02-20-2006   #17
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I heard Casserly on a national radio show on Saturday. He sounded much more excited when asked about Bush. It sounded like what he would say to McNair about why we should take Bush.

I could see where Casserly wants Bush, Kubiak wants to trade down, and McNair wants VY (if for no other reason than to save face).
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Old 02-20-2006   #18
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Quote:
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I could see where Casserly wants Bush, Kubiak wants to trade down, and McNair wants VY (if for no other reason than to save face).
Skip Bayless, is that you?


If McNair wanted Vince Young then Carr wouldn't have been extended.
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Old 02-20-2006   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Almost Anybody
We could on all day with comparisons to other players . . . and it's a trap. If you don't like Bush, you're going to compare him to certain players to make your case. If you're pro-Bush, you're going to list other players to compare him to.

I think Reggie Bush plays like Reggie Bush, and Vince Young plays like Vince Young. I've compared Vince Young to Michael Vick before, and the response, for the most part was correct.
I agree. If you were to compare Bush to lets say Barber and Dunn...

Barber 2005 Rushing Stats: 5'10" 200 lbs.
357 attempts in 16 games, giving him ~22 attempts per game.
YPC = 5.2
Total Yards = 1860

Dunn 2005 Rushing Stats: 5'9" 180 lbs.
280 att. in 16 games, giving him 17.5 att. per game.
YPC = 5.1
Total = 1416
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Old 02-20-2006   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tulexan
Skip Bayless, is that you?

If McNair wanted Vince Young then Carr wouldn't have been extended.
OK, thanks for straightening me out. I appreciate it. What the hell could I have been thinking?
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