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Old 02-17-2006   #1
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Default A realistic look at the trade down scenarios

I have personally been an advocate of the trade-down scenario. However, as I start to look at the needs of the teams below us, I am wondering who we would trade with. This discussion is more on who we could trade with rather than what we trade them for.


Here is my evaluation of the situation:

2. New Orleans - It really depends on if they have Young and Lineart ranked significantly different. If it is Lineart, they would only trade with us if they thought we have a viable trade partner lined up. If they value Young much more (unlikely with Payton as their HC), then we might be able to convince them to trade up. I think they will want Lineart and that it will be hard to convince them we have a trade partner that wants to move up to #1 to get Lineart unless someone trades into the Jets spot (say Detroit for instance).

3. Tennessee - The Titans are in a good spot. They will get the "leftovers" of Lineart, Young, and Ferguson. They really cannot go wrong there. They could even take Bush, so why would they want to trade the farm to move up to #1? The only way that happens is if Chow convinces them they have to Lineart IMO. I just don't see that happening with all of the holes on their team.

4. NY Jets - They need a bit of everything. It is hard to believe how far the talent has dropped off on this team. They are leaning towards trading down, rather than trading up. Now if the right team traded into the Jets spot, however, I could see that new team (Detroit?) wanting to ensure themselves of Bush, Lineart, or Young.

5. Green Bay - They have their potential QB of the future in the fold. They really have a ton of needs and can fill those much easier without trading up. They are in the perfect position in the draft to add Ferguson, Williams, or Hawk. Why move?

6. San Fran/Oakland (coin flip) - I would like to see us add Young, Bush, Ferguson, Mario Williams, or AJ Hawk, so this is as low as I go (I expect Lineart to be drafted early).

Oakland is always a wild card in the draft, so never count them out. They might want a Young or Lineart to lead the way or Bush to team with Jordan to give them that 1-2 punch. Not likely this would happen, but I scratch my head on Davis' decisions enough to expect the unexpected.

The 49ers are not going up, but they might go down in the draft. If they trade down, their trade partner might be willing to trade up again, but would be a steep price to move up to here and then up to #1.

That is as far as I am taking this. Feel free to discuss other teams and your take on the situation. The more I think about it, the less likely I think we find a trade partner.
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Old 02-17-2006   #2
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Is Aaron Brooks officially out of New Orleans yet??

I know he said some dumb things about Benson, and that may be the reason more than anything why he is leaving New Orleans. But him being gone was pretty much said before they even hired their new Coach.

Has anyone got anything saying Payton wants him out?? They are close to being a play-off team..... coaching alone may get them there. Starting all over with QB, may not be the best thing for them. Seriously. I know, I know... Aaron has made some stupid decisions, but he's got an arm, he's fairly accurate, he's a playmaker, his carreer QB rating is on Par with Carr's, if not better. his Carreer completion percentage, and avg yards per completion is on par with David's, if not better. His int/TD ratio is off, I wouldn't trade for him, but I wouldn't start a rookie next year, if Aaron is on my team either. That team is close..... give them Mario Williams, and a Safety, and I think they have a serious shot at the play-offs. Especially if Atlanta continues on the Downhill slide, and if Carolina don't get their running game situated.
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Old 02-17-2006   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss
Is Aaron Brooks officially out of New Orleans yet??

I know he said some dumb things about Benson, and that may be the reason more than anything why he is leaving New Orleans. But him being gone was pretty much said before they even hired their new Coach.

Has anyone got anything saying Payton wants him out?? They are close to being a play-off team..... coaching alone may get them there. Starting all over with QB, may not be the best thing for them. Seriously. I know, I know... Aaron has made some stupid decisions, but he's got an arm, he's fairly accurate, he's a playmaker, his carreer QB rating is on Par with Carr's, if not better. his Carreer completion percentage, and avg yards per completion is on par with David's, if not better. His int/TD ratio is off, I wouldn't trade for him, but I wouldn't start a rookie next year, if Aaron is on my team either. That team is close..... give them Mario Williams, and a Safety, and I think they have a serious shot at the play-offs. Especially if Atlanta continues on the Downhill slide, and if Carolina don't get their running game situated.
New Orleans has a serious shot at the playoffs?? They had ONE more win than the Texans last season. Brooks has had TWO more years to succeed in NO and has done nothing except show he has no leadership skills you claim Carr does not have (Which I respectfully disagree). Yet you believe NO should stick with him instead of lets say ummmm......VY, but the Texans should give up on Carr and draft VY??? As you pointed out, both Carr and Brooks stats are similar, but somehow you would stick with Brooks? What if Brooks was in Houston, would you believe drafting VY would still be the right choice?

I'm not seeing your rationale.
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Old 02-17-2006   #4
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Brooks is likely out, because Peyton will want a more traditional QB. Other than that it is good for their cap to get rid of Brooks. Most of his NO teammates think he is gone already anyway. As far as potential trade partners can only really see a couple of people willing to make that move.

Jets- eventhough they are in cap hell, they have a solid defense and an offense once removed from the playoffs. They will have to get rid of alot of people, but one thing they need more than bodies will be a way to be compettive and score TDs. Bush is that type of option for them if they can make their cap situation work.

Packers- I think they are more likely to make the trade, because they are a complete team with enough cash to get some of the veterans that will be let go this season. They will focus in FA on improving the line and defense and then look for that playmaker like Bush to replace Ahman Green. They will keep Najeh as the power back and use Gado as possible bait next year for a trade. They are built to win now and if Farve is back with a team good talent he will be dangerous

Oakland- They are always looking for the hot pick and Al Davis is willing to move at anytime. Not sure what they need out of the top 4, but if Al falls in love with someone then he will go get him.

These are the only teams that I think are viable options. All of them give us the ability to take the best D player in the draft Mario Williams and fill the O-line holes either by trading back in late first or two second round picks. Either way a trade down with the Packers or Jets is likely the best option, eventhough the Packers could end up being a low pick next year. Either way with two first rounders you can always make some pretty good moves.
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Old 02-17-2006   #5
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I don't think many teams will want to trade up and give up too much. All of the teams at the top of the draft are filled with holes and most have new coaches. If anything, they will want to trade down to fill more holes.

I've heard that GB loves LenDale White, so they will probably stay put and take him if they want a RB.
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Old 02-17-2006   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeReal
New Orleans has a serious shot at the playoffs?? They had ONE more win than the Texans last season. Brooks has had TWO more years to succeed in NO and has done nothing except show he has no leadership skills you claim Carr does not have (Which I respectfully disagree). Yet you believe NO should stick with him instead of lets say ummmm......VY, but the Texans should give up on Carr and draft VY??? As you pointed out, both Carr and Brooks stats are similar, but somehow you would stick with Brooks? What if Brooks was in Houston, would you believe drafting VY would still be the right choice?

I'm not seeing your rationale.
In his first 4 years, how many times has David Cracked 3500 passing yards?? 3800?? How many times has David had a better than 80 QB rating in his first 4 years?? In the last 4 years, they were both sacked 131 times, yet one has put up much better numbers.

Aarons an *****, but he is a better leader than Carr. I don't know how I can prove that to you, other than watching them. I see it in Aaron, don't see it in David. I'd be much happier if Aaron was here... I wouldn't see much of an upgrade other than Vince might not be so stupid.... But I don't like the way Haslette babied Aaron anymore than the way we Babied Carr..... who knows, Aaron might not look as bad, if he were here. Carr might look a lot better if he were in N.O.

If the Houston Texans had to deal with what the Saints had to deal with this year, I would doubt they would have done much better than 3-13. But we didn't have to deal with that, and we still didn't do much better than 3-13....

The Saints are much closer than we are.
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Old 02-17-2006   #7
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Carr had both over 3500 yards and a QB rating of 80 last season. Aaron Brooks has misleading stats because they look really good but he always has turnovers at the worst time. He is also very inconsistent which leads to having very good games and very bad games.
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Old 02-17-2006   #8
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Let's not steal this thread,

if you want to discuss Carr vs Brooks let's start a new thread. PM me, or call me on my cell.
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Old 02-17-2006   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss
In the last 4 years, they were both sacked 131 times, yet one has put up much better numbers.
You got some bad info somewhere on this one.

Past 4 years--Carr 208 in 60 games, Brooks 144 in 61 games.
Past 3 years--Carr 132 in 44 games, Brooks 108 in 45 games
Past 2 years--Carr 117 in 32 games, Brooks 74 in 29 games.

Over the last 2 years:

Carr--541 comp. 889 att. 60.8% comp 6019 yds 6.77 ypa 30 TD's 25 INT's 80.5 QB rating
Brooks--549 comp. 973 att. 56.4% comp. 6692 yds 34 TD's 33 INT's 75.2 QB rating.

36% more sacks and a better QB rating for Carr.
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Old 02-17-2006   #10
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I'm using an abiscus to add the numbers...... I missed a bead. sorry
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Old 02-17-2006   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss
I'm using an abiscus to add the numbers...... I missed a bead. sorry
Is that a cross between a hibiscus and an abacus? That does sound like a pain to use. j/k
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Old 02-17-2006   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak
Is that a cross between a hibiscus and an abacus? That does sound like a pain to use. j/k

from where I come from we call it an abiscus.... I assume it's spelled like it sounds...
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Old 02-18-2006   #13
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I can see Arizona looking to trade up for Bush. They have a lot of talented young players who are starting to develop, a lot of cap-space, and a greater than usual need for a back who, la Sanders, can be a threat even behind an O-line that can't run-block.
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Old 02-19-2006   #14
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Perhaps Arizona could do that, but couldn't they just take D. Williams or LenDale White and get some lineman in the draft over the next couple of years? They will still need to do that anyway.
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Old 02-19-2006   #15
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I don't see the Texans trading down any further than the #4 spot with the Jets. I think this is a high possibility. Here are my reasons:

1) The Houston press and fan base are fed up with bad player personnel moves (count me in on this one). Getting anyone other than RB,VY or D'Brick would be a PR nightmare for the franchise. By trading down, the Texans would get the best LT prospect since Orlando Pace (pretty good player), the have two second round picks and two third round picks in one of the deepest drafts in recent history.

2) The Jets, although in cap hell, still are located in the Media capital of the world. The Giants got Eli, the Jets need RB. The NFL, no matter how you look at it, is BIG business. New York needs a big name player and no one is more big name than the Heisman Trophy Winner! The Jets would end up with a pretty good running back combo in RB and Curtis Martin (Isn't getting any younger) If the Jets line could make CM the NFL rushing champ in 04 what do you they can do with RB in 06?

I would love to get a player like Reggie Bush. Everytime I see DD get pulled down from behind it pisses me off. BUT he IS a great player. Alot of RB are not the fastest people in the world (ie NFL rush champ Emmitt Smith). This is why I support DD and am on the Trade Down Bandwagon. The Texans have so many holes to fill (OL, TE, LB, etc) that trading down with the Jets is not only the most likely, but the only option for our franchise with the talent available.

Anyway, this should be a very fun next few months for the Houston franchise. I hope they do something to put a more competitive team on the field next year.
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Old 02-19-2006   #16
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This isn't MLB or NBA. If you can't afford a player then you can't have the player. There isn't a luxury tax like in the other leagues. If the Jets can't afford paying a #1 pick, then they aren't going to do it. Jets are either going to trade down or stay where they are.
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Old 02-19-2006   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tulexan
This isn't MLB or NBA. If you can't afford a player then you can't have the player. There isn't a luxury tax like in the other leagues. If the Jets can't afford paying a #1 pick, then they aren't going to do it. Jets are either going to trade down or stay where they are.
This may very well be true....but I don't think you're taking into consideration the fact that IF the Jets do trade up to the #1 pick, they'll more than likely be giving up their 2nd round this year and their 1st round next year.

This would mean that they would have a #1 pick that they'd have to pay a lot of money to this year, but they wouldn't have a 2nd rounder to pay for...and probably not a 1st rounder next year. I think this would alleviate a lot of the strain that paying a #1 this year would cause.
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Old 02-19-2006   #18
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Unfortunately, I son't see any team in the top 6 moving up. If a team needs D, they can build around Williams or Hawk. If they need a QB, there are three very highly rated passers. There's Bush who you can build an offense around if you lack explosiveness. D'Brick for the line.

There's a lot of talk about the Jets wanting Cutler, if this is the case there is no chance they trade up. Al Davis could go crazy over Bush or Young, but San Francisco, Arizona, and Buffalo are the only teams that I could see moving up. I'm not sure Buffalo is willing to give up on the Losman experiment yet. Arizona probably wants a young QB to create an Indy/Cinci thing with Boldin and Fitzgerald. San Francisco is probably thinking long and hard about Bush at #1.

1-3 will be so pricey, I see 4-7 as the sweet spot for somebody trading up.
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Old 02-19-2006   #19
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I can't see them giving up a #1 next year. Next years draft is loaded with talent at the top. You are going to have guys like Adrian Peterson, Brady Quinn, Calvin Johnson, Troy Smith, Ted Ginn Jr, Chris Leak, plus many more. I don't think a rebuilding team is going to want to give up a shot at any of those players. Especially the Jets because if they give up a bunch of picks for Bush and Pennington doesn't work out then they aren't going to have a shot at Quinn, Leak, Smith, or Brohm (if he declares). The QB depth next year is much deeper and is probably better than the year with Rivers, Manning, Rothlisberger, and Losman.
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Old 02-19-2006   #20
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Frisco is not going to trade up. They are looking at defense and will probably go for Ngata, Hawk, or Jimmy Williams unless D'Brick falls to them.
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