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Old 02-12-2006   #1
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Default Why not an AJ on defense?

Ok lemme first say that I love VY and RB...I think both will be better than David Carr and DD. But I believe defense wins championships. If you look at recent history (Steelers, Patriots, Bucaneers, Ravens), they all had top notch defenses.

I think Kubes can work wonders with talent other people have tossed aside (Plummer) or just overlooked (Andersen, Bell, Q. Griffin, heck even Ron Dayne had a couple of good games). It would seem that the best allocation of resources would be on the defensive side of the ball.

My dream scenario would be trading down to #4, then again trading down in the top 10. Since there is such a bumper crop of offensive players this year (3 qbs, an offensive tackle and two rbs) that many project will be taken in the top 10, a lower top-10 defensive pick would probably yield the most value. In essence we would be getting a defensive player that in most years would have gone higher.

Carr and Davis both take up too much cap room to shift away money to players who won't contribute as much as they are paid (VY on the bench, Bush in a part time role).

The defensive player I am hoping we pick up? AJ Hawk...

He's played three of the top teams in the country this year in Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame and he was stellar in all three games. A lot of people make a big deal of QB play (which is very important nonetheless), but LB play is also critical (Porter was a big reason the Steelers got to the Super Bowl, Bruschi, Brooks, and Lewis helped lead their teams win as well).

I don't know if David Carr is going to succeed. He may throw 30 picks next year. But I am curious to see what Kubes can do with him. I am also curious to see how DD and Wells can run like in this scheme. I think Kubes can get this o-line together with some lower round draft picks and better coaching. The worst thing that can happen in this scenario is we stockpile picks and fix whats wrong on offense next year (perhaps trade up to get an Adrian Peterson or Brady Quinn?).

What I do know is that if you look at the defensive side of the ball, if we switch to a 4-3, we are deficient almost everywhere (except D-rob).

No matter where Vince goes, I'll root for him (except when he is playing the Texans, which in that case I'll root for him to have a good game but lose), and I'll enjoy watching Bush hurdle defenders, but what I want to watch most of all is the Texans win...

I Wonder what everyone's thoughts are on this...Just my
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Old 02-12-2006   #2
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aj hawk would do wonders for out lb's but i dont see him being available anywhere near your 10 spot...you'll be lucky to see him drop past 5-6.
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Old 02-12-2006   #3
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If the Texans want Hawk they should plan on trading down no lower than #5 in my opinion. I think the Raiders or Niners grab him.

I'm not sold that he is the best fit for this team. Hawk will be best suited at WOLB and the Texans can play a few guys in that spot. I agree that their linebacking unit as a group is below par, but with as many LBs that are tied up in contracts right now and a switch to the 4-3 leaves them short at DE and overabundanced at LB. Peek and Babin could both play Weakside DE, but neither can play strongside. I think Johnson, Walker, Smith, Payne, Ioane, Malone are all DTs and not fast enough to play DE in a 4-3. Defense and OLine need to be the focal points. Start with Mario Williams and add a Jonathan Scott or Eric Winston in the 2nd.

Considering Carr has never thrown close to 30 INTs in a season without an offensive coach, I would struggle to think he will regress under Kubiak. Look for 21 TDs and 8-10 INTs this season.
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Old 02-13-2006   #4
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Hawk is good, very good but if I had my choice I would trade down to grab Huff, who I think is the best suited defensive player for the Texans
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Old 02-13-2006   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samer
Hawk is good, very good but if I had my choice I would trade down to grab Huff, who I think is the best suited defensive player for the Texans
Huff wouldn't be bad either..Would he replace Coleman I'm assuming?

It's just that historically it does not seem that top end safeties have as much impact as top end lb's. But Polamalu and Reed are making me revise that opinion...I also think that drafting a safety that high is not necessary (Reed and Polamalu were both mid to late first rounders if my memory serves me right, but I could be wrong). Eventhough a portion of a draft pick's salary is determined by their position, by in large the determinative factor is what number pick they are. Teams are typically hesitant to put that much money in the safety spot...

Sean Taylor (and Roy Williams a few years earlier) went in the top ten, so maybe that trend is reversing as well...

I don't think teams regard Huff as highly as Taylor or Williams, so perhaps we could trade down again and pick up Huff...

I wonder whats the likelihood of trading down three times?
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Old 02-13-2006   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ToroFan
Huff wouldn't be bad either..Would he replace Coleman I'm assuming?

It's just that historically it does not seem that top end safeties have as much impact as top end lb's. But Polamalu and Reed are making me revise that opinion...I also think that drafting a safety that high is not necessary (Reed and Polamalu were both mid to late first rounders if my memory serves me right, but I could be wrong). Eventhough a portion of a draft pick's salary is determined by their position, by in large the determinative factor is what number pick they are. Teams are typically hesitant to put that much money in the safety spot...

Sean Taylor (and Roy Williams a few years earlier) went in the top ten, so maybe that trend is reversing as well...

I don't think teams regard Huff as highly as Taylor or Williams, so perhaps we could trade down again and pick up Huff...

I wonder whats the likelihood of trading down three times?

huff might play CB at the next level, he isnt solely thought of as a SS/FS.
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Old 02-13-2006   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevo3883
huff might play CB at the next level, he isnt solely thought of as a SS/FS.
Good point, I hadn't thought of that..

Oh yeah in reference to the prior poster, I don't think Carr will throw 30 picks, I was just exagerrating. My point was we should figure out what we have. After this next year, we should have a better idea with better coaching and offensive line..
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Old 02-13-2006   #8
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I think AJ Hawk might slipp to around the tenth pick. LB's have been slipping in the draft lately. Remember Derrick Johnson.
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Old 02-13-2006   #9
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Some people have Chad Greenway rated above Hawk now as he's bigger and probably faster, and as you said with all the good offensive guys at the top of the draft I could see Hawk making it to #10. I would not take Hawk at #4/5, I don't think he's worth that high of a pick. I also don't know how likely it would be to make multiple trade downs in order to get him, that kind of thing would probably take a couple weeks to orchestrate and as Casserly said last week most serious trade offers for the #1 spot won't really start coming in until the week of the draft.
If we trade down I say we go no farther than #4/5 and take Mario Williams. I think he is arguably the best defensive player in the draft, he is the best DE and a beast of one at that, and when we switch to a 4-3 DE is a much bigger need for us than LB. DEs have more value than LBs in the draft and are generally taken higher, and Mario is an amazing physical specimen of a DE. Hawk is a very solid LB and has most of the intangibles you want, but he's not that amazing physical specimen like Mario, or like LaVar Arrington was, who was the last LB taken in the top 8 in the draft. Our main need at LB is a MLB, and Hawk isn't really a MLB, and I think we can get a guy like Rocky McIntosh or Anthony Schlegel in the 4th or 5th round to be a good MLB for us, while a DE like Mario rarely comes around.
As you said I think Kubiak will be able to get a lot more out of our current offense than Capers' regime did, so I think we can/should look for some defensive players in the draft. However, I think Kubiak will need a couple tools to get the offense where he wants it to be, a TE, an OT, 1-2 interior OLinemen, and maybe another WR (and Reggie Bush if he chooses to go that route). I think the team can afford to get Mario in the 1st, then get OT, OG/C, and TE in the 2nd and 3rd (maybe a CB or WR in there if a really good one falls), then look to fix up MLB, CB, and FS in the next rounds after that. Free agency moves could also alter our draft plan, so we'll have to wait and see what they can do there.
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Old 02-13-2006   #10
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Kevin Simon from Tennessee is someone else to look at later in the draft that could be a MLB. He's 5'11", but he reminds me of Al Wilson. The big knock is multiple injuries. Still, it could be worth a late round pick to get a guy with a motor like Wilson's.
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Old 02-13-2006   #11
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i dont think we'd get aj hawk to begin with. if anything we'd pick up mario williams to help us out at DE. it is possible that we could grab Carpender though. he's a solid LB that has been overshadowed by AJ. I agree that defence makes teams. look at Chicago. in one year, with a strong D they made it to the playoffs with REX GROSSMAN and a rookie as thier QBs.
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Old 02-13-2006   #12
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When I first read the name of this thread, I thought you were going to suggest we move Andre Johnson to defense.
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Old 02-13-2006   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AtheGreat
i dont think we'd get aj hawk to begin with. if anything we'd pick up mario williams to help us out at DE. it is possible that we could grab Carpender though. he's a solid LB that has been overshadowed by AJ. I agree that defence makes teams. look at Chicago. in one year, with a strong D they made it to the playoffs with REX GROSSMAN and a rookie as thier QBs.
Even if we go 4-3, we've got some LBs right now that we could use to pop
our defense even though we can use help there for sure. But what we need
most of all on D in the 4-3 is a DE to play on the strong side, so that might be our first D pick, even if its not the top guy (Mario Williams).
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Old 02-13-2006   #14
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I would expect Walker to be a cap casualty. Someone like LaCharles Bentley via FA would be nice and then Winston or Scott in round @? Love it.

TexansBacker nailed it...Babin would just get crushed a DE in the run game I think. I would think Greenwood and Wong (injury pending) would be your outside backers. Mario Williams would be great.
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Old 02-13-2006   #15
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I would expect Walker to be a cap casualty.
Cap casualties are generally guys who save money on the cap when released--Sharper and Glenn last year for instance. It costs the Texans more in cap space to release Walker this year than to have him play.
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Old 02-13-2006   #16
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Wow, Doug from the Woodlands that is unnecessary. Babin and Peek can be functional rushers with their hands down as long as we have someone like Mario Williams to take the heat off the side. Mario is a good fit for our team because he is a huge freak type guy and he plays the strongside end which means he is on the runside most of the time. Babin and Peek will not hold up well against the run, mind you Babin at 265 would hold up better than 255 Peek. Our DL would be pretty good with the addition of Williams. I am hoping he is our pick in the first round.
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Old 02-13-2006   #17
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Hawk will be a stud in this league IMHO. You can't teach the intangibles and he will be like Zach Thomas and others who always seem to find the ball. Williams could be the stud we need. If the Texans do move down I'd take D and the extra picks anyday. The Steelers showed what a D can do.
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Old 02-13-2006   #18
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Hawk will be a stud in this league IMHO. You can't teach the intangibles and he will be like Zach Thomas and others who always seem to find the ball. Williams could be the stud we need. If the Texans do move down I'd take D and the extra picks anyday. The Steelers showed what a D can do.
Hawk is severly overrated. He is DJ version 2.
He will be a servicable LB, but DEFFINITLY not worth top 10.

Greenway is a better LB right now also.

IF Brooks and Poluzzensey (sp) had entered he would be the 4th best LB in the draft.
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Old 02-13-2006   #19
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Quote:
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Hawk is severly overrated. He is DJ version 2.
He will be a servicable LB, but DEFFINITLY not worth top 10.

Greenway is a better LB right now also.

IF Brooks and Poluzzensey (sp) had entered he would be the 4th best LB in the draft.

ok im sorry but none of that crap is true.

you seriously must not watch much college football is you think greenway brooks AND posluszny are better than hawk.
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Old 02-13-2006   #20
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Originally Posted by stevo3883
ok im sorry but none of that crap is true.

you seriously must not watch much college football is you think greenway brooks AND posluszny are better than hawk.
Ahmad Brooks if healthy is the only legitiment top 5 LB in college. He has Arrington type athletiscim and is just as good a prospect. Greenway is bigger, faster, makes better reads, makes just as many plays, and is just the same leader. He will project better to most professional scouts. I'll predict it now. Posluszny is a better LB than Hawk. He is just as athletic if not more, and beat out hawk for LB awards. He makes much better reads, and is better in pursuit. He is a better wrap up tackler.

Hawk will be a solid pro. He should not make any pro-bolws, but should be slightly above league average.

I watch LOTS of college football and I have been reviewing film since the season ended. Hawk is very overrated. He is taken out of too many plays, and does not excell at pursuit. He got a lot of his sacks on delayed blitzes where the QB was just sitting there and he just had to get by a RB. (see ND game)
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