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Old 02-08-2006   #1
Xman
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Default My Offseason; our cap situation limits choices

I am "borrowing" Morknoles post and editing it to add my tastes (free agents and draft picks) - I am showing the roster the way I would leave it.

The shocking thing about sitting down and doing this is how much cap money we have tied up in some players and how little cap space we have. I would love to take the cap hit and trade a few guys for draft picks (Walker/Wade/Robaire) and I would cut someone to make that happen if we got a decent offer, but cutting them is difficult when you can't afford a replacement.

3 free agent signings:
RDE; 2.5 mil should net a C Brown type. A decent free agent with potential but that has issues. We sign him for 2 years.
DE; .5 mil should get a backup.
WR; 3.0 mil should net us a decent WR. I am hoping for Moulds. If we can't get him, then this money could be diverted to OL.
[no OL signing because the only worthwhile ones will go elsewhere]

Draft:
#1 Bush
#21 Pope (dealing #33+#66 to move up)
(otherwise an OL at 33 and a LB at 66 and TE at 129)
#65 OL
#97 OL
#129 LB (could flip with 97)
#161 P
#193 OL

Reasoning behind draft: Without a good enough offer to trade down, we take Bush. After deciding that Kubiak can make do with lower OL picks, we decide to fix the TE spot and move up a few spots to get it done right. We need a decent LB in either rd 4 or 5 and a punter in 6 to round out some holes.

Where this leaves us: Except for OL, the offense is rock solid for the foreseeable future. Hopefully, Kubiak can work wonders and fix the OL - if so, then our offense will put up some points. Next year's draft will be spent on defense (I predict 1st CB, 2nd LB, 3rd WR, 4th S or DL).

Drastic idea for long term improvement:
If we deal two of Walker/Robaire/Payne, we take a small hit (the cap hit is slightly larger than their salary) and we cannot afford anyone to replace them but low dollar free agents or rookies. The benefit is a much better cap situation next year and whatever picks we could get for them. The drawback is that the DL would have no depth and probably not too good. Still, we have to take a hit somewhere to fix the cap and it is too expensive to cut or trade the questionable contracts of Wade/Greenwood.


Name.................2006 Cap Amt./2006 Cap Hit if Cut/Traded
Total team cost = $95 mil. which is max cap.
QB - Cost 9.2 - Net of 3; Banks could be replaced by a salary equivalent veteran.
David Carr...............$7,256,160/$6,018,480 (with 3 year ext)
Tony Banks.........$1,256,160/$406,160 [replace if possible - same cap hit]
Dave Ragone...........Restricted Free Agent ($656,000 tender)

RB - Cost 13.4 - Net of 4; This foursome is quality.
Reggie Bush.............$8,000,000
Domanick Davis........$3,806,160/$8,424,640
Moran Norris............$866,160/$412,420
Tony Hollings...........X$699,410/$239,410 [cut]
Vernand Morency......$505,160/$390,320
Jonathan Wells.........XUnrestricted Free Agent ($662,160 in 2005) [cut]

WR - $11.7 - A strong unit if we get Moulds. Otherwise, we will be weak here with AJ being doubleteamed.
Andre Johnson.........$7,383,104/$7,149,312
#2WR FREE AGENT $3,000,000 (Moulds - less for someone else)
Jerome Mathis..........$428,160/$236,320
Jabar Gaffney...........Unrestricted Free Agent ($787,464 in 2005)
resign as #3WR for 2 years/2mil
Corey Bradford..........Unrestricted Free Agent [cut]
Derick Armstrong.......Restricted Free Agent ($656,000 tender)[cut]

TE - $2.9 - I would deal up to get Pope. I would keep Joppru and Bruener around him for one year with the long term goal being just Pope and a cheap backup.
Mark Bruener............$1,014,493/$139,493
ROOKIE - POPE. . . . . 1,000,000
(I would deal #66 and #33 to move up to 20-22 range and take Pope)
Bennie Joppru...........$874,910/$414,910
Marcellus Rivers........Unrestricted Free Agent (646,160 in 2005)[cut]
Matt Murphy.............Restricted Free Agent ($656,000 tender) [cut]

OL - 15.8 - Man this one his hard. I saved it for last - the rest of the O was 37.2 mil and the D was 42 - leaving only about 13-16 mil for OL - and 14 was already committed. Without cutting Wiegert (which would free up 2.8 mil), all we can do is add cheap rookies.
Todd Wade..............$5,172,827/$6,691,308
Steve McKinney........$4,706,160/$806,160 [cut]
Zach Wiegert............$4,206,160/$1,412,320
Chester Pitts............$3,180,000/$9,700,000
Todd Washington......$842,827/$172,827 [cut]
Fred Weary..............$694,360/$149,360
ROOKIE...................$500
ROOKIE...................$400
ROOKIE...................$400
Drew Hodgdon..........$358,127/$96,254
Milford Brown...........Restricted Free Agent ($656,000 tender)[cut]
Seth Wand..............Restricted Free Agent ($656,000 tender)
Bryan Pittman..........Restricted Free Agent ($656,000 tender)[cut]

Defense - $42

DL - $21 approx - We have a lot of cash tied up here - and we still need to sign a FA defensive end.
Gary Walker.............$5,839,493/$7,357,972
Robaire Smith...........$4,797,827/$5,591,308
Seth Payne..............$3,931,160/$3,393,480
FREE AGENT.............$2,500,000 (Denver may cut Brown who will do until we get someone better if we sign him to a 2 or 3 year contract)
Travis Johnson.........$1,500,160/$4,760,640
Jerry DeLoach..........$953,660/$580,980
Junior Ioane............$651,160/$212,320
FREE AGENT..............$500,000

LB - $9.7 - This area needs work, but, just like in the secondary, I would rather give these guys a shot (for one year only) and spend our money and picks elsewhere - then replace the ones that must be replaced next year.
Morlon Greenwood.....$3,966,160/$5,624,640
Kailee Wong.............$3,171,160/$4,684,460
Jason Babin..............$1,325,670/$2,966,668
Charlie Anderson.......$407,827/$22,827
ROOKIE.....................$400,000
Antwan Peek............Restricted Free Agent for $656,000 tender
Shantee Orr.............Restricted Free Agent for $656,000 tender
DaShon Polk.............Unrestricted Free Agent ($696,160 in 2005)[cut]
Troy Evans...............Restricted Free Agent ($656,000 tender)[cut]

DB - $9.5 - I know going with the same bunch isn't sexy, but it will let us find out who we can keep as starters in 2007 (Buchy/Earl/Brown) without wasting any draft picks or money.
Marcus Coleman........$3,041,160/$2,512,320 [trade/cut]
Dunta Robinson.........$2,121,548/$5,134,644
DeMarcus Faggins.....$1,281,160/$1,143,480
Philip Buchanon........$806,160/-0-
Jason Simmons.........$776,160/$212,320
Lewis Sanders..........$751,160/$206,160
Glenn Earl................$487,660/$102,660
C.C. Brown...............$341,260/$62,520
Ramon Walker..........Unrestricted Free Agent ($498,825 in 2005)[cut]
Jason Bell................UFA ($486,160 in 2005) - resign 500k

Special Teams: $ 2.1
Kris Brown.................$1,586,160/$1,544,640
Chad Stanley.............$826,160/$156,160 [cut]
DRAFTEE PUNTER . . . . $350,000

Practice Squad: Too difficult to project. Keep them if they are panning out, otherwise go with a new batch.
NEW or Jason Anderson, Donovan Morgan, Aaron Halterman, Garrick Jones, Alfred Malone, Kenneth Pettway, Andre Torrey, Quinn Dorsey, Chris McKenzie, and Jammal Lord.
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Old 02-08-2006   #2
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Interesting. I would resign Wells over Morency. Wells is more of a power runner plus he's better on special teams. From your numbers, it looks like we can't go after Bentley,is that true? I'll rather go after FA OL instead of FA WR.
Is there anyway we can restructure Wade's and Walker's contract; say give them more upfront money(guaranteed money) and lower base?
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Old 02-08-2006   #3
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This is what chafes me. Why we did we sign Wade and Greenwood? Is it our evauation process is so poor; It"s obvious we're not getting our money's worth. P-buc was a lousy trade. We still have CC in front office. Let's keep our picks; I prefer not to trade up.
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Old 02-08-2006   #4
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Excellent analysis. I love the idea of grabbing both Bush and Pope (although I don't know enough about his blocking ability). That prospect is even more inviting if we could grab a solid FA OL. Alternatively, I like the idea of Bush and possibly Winston at #33. I am beginning to move away from the Brick camp unless we get an incredibly tempting trade down proposal.
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Old 02-08-2006   #5
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I say we just start making our list right now...

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Old 02-08-2006   #6
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I didn't factor in restructuring. If we could do it without hurting the future cap - I would do it.
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Old 02-08-2006   #7
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If we draft Bush

1. Draft Winston and/or Colledge in 2nd round to play LT
2. Draft Greg Eslinger in the 4th or 5th round to play C
3. Cut McKinney if he does not take a serious salary hit

Winston/Colledge - Pitts - Eslinger - Weigart/McKinney - Wand

If we trade down:

1. Draft D'Brick
2. Draft Greg Eslinger

D'Brick - Pitts - Eslinger - Weigart/McKinney - Wand

Either situation would leave both third round picks (and most likely John Abraham in the trade down scenario) to address needs at DE and MLB.

Could use 4th or 5th rounder depending on where Eslinger is projected on a TE (some good ones will still be available second day)

FA: (1) MLB, (2) DE, (3) WR
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Old 02-09-2006   #8
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I don't know if a 2nd day TE will help us. They are such long shots to be anything but backups or non-factor block/pass oriented guys.

I see a few players that I consider potential future fixtures throughout the first two rounds: The top 5, Hawk, Huff, VDavis, LPope, Jean-Gilles and Tutui. Of course, there are some good OTs and C prospects also. I think we can get them with 65 and a couple of later picks.

Trading down would let us suck up a lot of talent and the cap hit is less. The problem is that I don't think we will get good value for trading down. If we did, I would change it to this: target Huff around pick 12, get one of the TEs also in the 1st, load up on OL in the 2nd and 3rd - and a mlb in the 3rd. The net result is a better team everywhere but RB - but I still wouldn't give Bush up for less than full value(which I still don't see us getting).

We can only do so much this year - so maximize our picks on BPA. And, let our marginal players play so that we can figure out how good they are.
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