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Old 02-05-2006   #1
YoungTexanFan
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Default Our pick/Abreham value

Recently I have done some deeper investigation into what teams would give for the #1 pick. NJY believe Abreham is worth an early second/late first alone. Thre are reports they could get KC's #20 overall outright for him.

I see a lot of mocks that have us trading down to #4, getting Abreham, a second rounder this year, and first rounder next year.

If we were to trade down with NYJ, then all I would expect would be to swap first round picks, Abreham, and a third rounder this year. Not too much.

Most other teams feel we overvalue our top pick. Most of us feel that everyone overvalues their players. I think it is a little of both.
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Old 02-05-2006   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YoungTexanFan
Recently I have done some deeper investigation into what teams would give for the #1 pick. NJY believe Abreham is worth an early second/late first alone. Thre are reports they could get KC's #20 overall outright for him.

I see a lot of mocks that have us trading down to #4, getting Abreham, a second rounder this year, and first rounder next year.

If we were to trade down with NYJ, then all I would expect would be to swap first round picks, Abreham, and a third rounder this year. Not too much.

Most other teams feel we overvalue our top pick. Most of us feel that everyone overvalues their players. I think it is a little of both.
Teams will tend to overvalue many of their guys, but looking at the draft pick value chart that would be no where near the appropriate value. Without adding Abraham, they'd have to swap 1sts, give us this year's 2nd, and next year's 1st and 3rd. John Abraham ordinarily could be worth a late 1st round pick, but since they are so far over the salary cap and are likely going to lose him even if they wanted to keep him, then that drastically lowers his value. I don't know if we can still get this year's 2nd, next year's 1st, and Abraham while switching 1sts this year. I would think that if they are interested in moving up that we could at least get this year's 3rd and next year's 1st in addition to Abraham, and I would still accept that trade since I think moving down to #4 and drafting Mario Williams would be more valuable to this team than drafting Vince or Reggie, so we would pick up the guy that I think will help this team the most out of anyone in the draft, and we add a 3rd/2nd round pick this year, a 1st next year, and another young, Pro-Bowl DE to anchor our DLine.
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Old 02-05-2006   #3
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If we could trade down to #4, pick up either a 2nd/3rd this year and next years first I think we would be crazy not to do it...at 4 Mario will be there, along with Brick most likely. That way we get 5 picks in the top 68, plus one of the better DE in the league...I dont see any way that it wouldnt be done.
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Old 02-05-2006   #4
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The thing is, if a team is over the cap, they are not going to want the number one pick. I dont know that the Jets will want to trade up, even if we give them a discount of sorts. Also, Abraham is a free agent, they cant trade him...
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Old 02-05-2006   #5
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If all we get with your scenario is 5 picks in the first 68,why do it.We already have 4 in the top 66.
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Old 02-05-2006   #6
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IMO we are sitting pretty as we are.With a few good FA aquisitions and our draft situation(as is)I think we can make a significant improvement,without trading out of the #1 spot.This years draft is fairly deep in RB's,OL,DE's.We should be able to fill some of our needs at those positions with our first 4 picks.A couple of FA out there that could help us IMO are Kevin Schaffer OT(ATL), Adam Archuleta SS (Rams):
Draft wise i would go:
Rd 1 Bush (multi dimensional)
Rd 2 Marcus McNeil OT Aubrn/Or Winston OT miami whichever available
Rd 3a Ashton Youboty CB Ohio State
Rd3b Mark Setterstrom OG MInnesota
Rd 4 Elvis Dumerville DE Louisville
Rd 5 Jason Spitz OG Louisville
Rd 6 David Thomas TE Texas
Rd 7 Eric Meyer QB E. Washington
Maybe a trade or 2 and we are on our way.
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Old 02-05-2006   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by run-david-run
The thing is, if a team is over the cap, they are not going to want the number one pick. I dont know that the Jets will want to trade up, even if we give them a discount of sorts. Also, Abraham is a free agent, they cant trade him...
One pick is easier and cheaper to sign than two or three picks at a slightly lower cost.

Abrehman being traded is under the assumption they "franchise" him.
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Old 02-05-2006   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whiskeyrbl
If all we get with your scenario is 5 picks in the first 68,why do it.We already have 4 in the top 66.
In his scenario we also pick up an extra 1st round pick for next year.
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Old 02-06-2006   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YoungTexanFan
Recently I have done some deeper investigation into what teams would give for the #1 pick. NJY believe Abreham is worth an early second/late first alone. Thre are reports they could get KC's #20 overall outright for him.

I see a lot of mocks that have us trading down to #4, getting Abreham, a second rounder this year, and first rounder next year.

If we were to trade down with NYJ, then all I would expect would be to swap first round picks, Abreham, and a third rounder this year. Not too much.

Most other teams feel we overvalue our top pick. Most of us feel that everyone overvalues their players. I think it is a little of both.
If the Jets could get pick #20 for Abraham, I think he would already be gone. The Jets are so far over the cap, they HAVE to trade him or lose him for nothing. So, I wouldn't give that much. Besides, Abraham wants a big contract.

That being said, if we could get #4, #20 and the #1 next year, I would take it and be very happy (might even throw a 3rd back). (at 4 you take either Ferg or Mario - or trade down again - #4 for 9-12 plus a #1 next year).

BUT - I don't think NYJ pays the price to move up - they need their picks and their cap situation is very bad. So, their #1 next year is going to be really high - too high to risk dealing with APeterson and O'Quinn coming out.
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