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Old 01-31-2006   #1
Wolf
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Default How fast to get us to back to respectable? Not Long IMO (and the other poster)

http://www.texanstalk.com/cgi-bin/fo...num=1138171382

I hope it is ok to repost this from the link.

Quote:
Take a look at last year's schedule. The last column is assuming Kubiak's new offense would have gotten us only a single extra touchdown per game:

Date Opponent Actual score +7 points

Sep 11 @Buffalo Lost 7-22 Lost 17-22
Sep 18 Pittsburgh Lost 7-27 Lost 17-27
Week 3 BYE
Oct 2 @Cincinnati Lost 10-16 WON 17-16
Oct 9 Tennessee Lost 20-34 Lost 27-34
Oct 16 @Seattle Lost 10-42 Lost 17-42
Oct 23 Indianapolis Lost 20-38 Lost 27-38
Oct 30 Cleveland Won 19-16 Won 26-16
Nov 6 @Jacksonville Lost 14-21 TIE 21-21
Nov 13 @Indianapolis Lost 17-31 Lost 24-31
Nov 20 Kansas City Lost 17-45 Lost 24-45
Nov 27 St. Louis Lost 27-33 WON 34-33
Dec 4 @Baltimore Lost 15-16 WON 22-16
Dec 11 @Tennessee Lost 10-13 WON 17-13
Dec 18 Arizona Won 30-19 WON 37-19
Dec 24 Jacksonville Lost 20-38 Lost 27-38
Jan 1 @San Francisco Lost 17-20 WON 24-20


That's a 7-8-1 record with essentially the same personnel. Tack on an improved defense, and the fact that a touchdown FOR US can also be a touchdown FROM the other side (i.e., a 14-point turnaround), and we'd be looking at possible playoff contention. An 8-8 or a winning record in Kube's first year is NOT an unreasonable expectation.
This is interesting on the thought pattern here. Some are saying we are doomed for a few years... But I wonder.. with discipline and maybe (like the post above) a touchdown more a game under Kubiak's guidance.. with less dumb penalties we could be respectable..

Granted ALL teams are expecting to get better with personell throught the drat and FA..



Makes me wonder more about the draft.. would Bush given our OL status help us get an extra TD a game (remember with that we AGAIN don't help in the trenches for pass protection and that is our weakness) .... or trade down.. gain a few picks and get maybe with the extra PICK or two get DL or TE (I have a feeling OL is going to be one of our 1st 2 picks ..if we pick Bush #1 ..we work to get OL on 2nd pick..might have to trade up and might not)
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Old 01-31-2006   #2
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It has been my contention all along that fresh coaching alone would get us closer to the 7-9 team than this 2-14 team. Our coaching staff peaked two seasons ago, and the increasing influence of Pendry precipitated a major drop in offensive production. Add a couple of players and we will be competitive next year - maybe not playoff bound, but competitive.

Just my prediction.
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Old 01-31-2006   #3
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I looked at the next posters response.. and yes we are playing the NFC East next season, so we should expect 4 tough games.. Cowboys,Redskins,Giants and Eagles


*edit*
7-9 might be a little tough though.. esp, with one offseason and with new coaching, but I expect us to be competitive (like 2002) except it should be offensively and not defensively (opposite of 2002)
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Old 01-31-2006   #4
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I'm shooting for a 6-10 record. I think that is a realistic expectation from a 2-14 team, new coaching strategies, new young players (hopefully), etc.

By season two of Kubes system and coaching, I'll be expecting at least 8-8 with hopes of making playoffs....but I can't see us being 7-9 or 8-8 THIS year.
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Old 01-31-2006   #5
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Good thread, Wolf. It's an interesting observation about adding a touchdown in production to each game last year. It does give me pause to think about it, as I'd assume that Kubiak will definitely be more aggressive about scoring.

If we acquire some talent in key areas via FA and the draft, we could be surprised with the results. I'm still sticking to a very cautious 6-10 season at this point, but it's really early in the game. So many things will change between now and September that all we can do is speculate.

But I've thought the major failure with the team was coaching and leadership, too. It started showing midway through the 2004 season, and manifested itself with the disaster of last year. I do feel optimistic that Coach Kubiak will turn things around, though. Good times ahead.
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Old 02-01-2006   #6
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Another possible contributing factor is the comparitive belief the players have in Kubiak's system vesus the old one.
By that I mean, suppose that they lost faith in the old system. Valid assumption IMO.
Now assume that they buy into the new system completely.
How much is that factor alone worth? I'm not saying that they were dogging it, but you tend to fight harder for what you believe in. If you hit the field believing that your system is a failure, how can you be successful?
I think just this factor alone could account for a couple of victories next season.
Just as it could've account for a few last year...
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Old 02-01-2006   #7
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I don't want to sound negative, but how can this thread be called "back to respectable, we've never been respectable.
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Old 02-01-2006   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carr Bomb
I don't want to sound negative, but how can this thread be called "back to respectable, we've never been respectable.
I would say that 7-9 in your third year from scratch is respectable.
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Old 02-01-2006   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigtex77
I would say that 7-9 in your third year from scratch is respectable.
Agreed. We were even respected in our first year because you could tell the players gave everything they had...

I am so glad Kubiak is here...
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Old 02-01-2006   #10
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I like the exercise Wolf, but I come back to Carr. For the last four years he has been hit and coached to play a certain way. Even in his glory when he called the plays against the Cardinals in the first half it was all hitches. He showed no confidence and imagination against a defeated defense at that point in time. This is what concerns me about the job Kubiak has, which is a total reclamation project. Every one our offensive unit must improve in order to compensate for the 50/50, in my opinion, shot of Carr getting back to Fresno State confidence, it is another question whether or not Carr's confidence will transfer to success in the NFL.
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Old 02-01-2006   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaiser Toro
Even in his glory when he called the plays against the Cardinals in the first half it was all hitches. He showed no confidence and imagination against a defeated defense at that point in time.
I don't care what an offense does, if they score 24 points in a quarter, I don't see any reason to complain. How many other teams scored 24 points in a quarter this year?
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Old 02-01-2006   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Bauer
I don't care what an offense does, if they score 24 points in a quarter, I don't see any reason to complain. How many other teams scored 24 points in a quarter this year?
I agree, but we do not need to pay one someone 8 million dollars to throw hitches.
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Old 02-01-2006   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaiser Toro
I agree, but we do not need to pay one someone 8 million dollars to throw hitches.
I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt. He was able to lead the team to 24 points within the confines of that pathetic offensive scheme. That makes the accomplishment even more amazing to me...I would agree with you if he had other plays they had to call or had practiced. He actually threw the ball deep a few times. At the time, I was amazed that Pendry had "opened" up the offense so much. We now know that was NOT the case, of course.
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Old 02-01-2006   #14
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I agree totaly with this post,in alot of cases we were only 2-3 plays away from a victory.I also believe that if we play our D personnel in their natural positions and build around their strengths and not try to force them into a certain type of role,i think our D can be really tough with a DE and MLB added this year.
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Old 02-01-2006   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaiser Toro
I agree, but we do not need to pay one someone 8 million dollars to throw hitches.
There's the rub, IMO. In 2004 Carr was an above average QB on a below average team. He showed signs of improving and maturing beyond certain tendencies. It is quite feasible that DC can be good enough to lead us to a winning season, and possibly the playoffs. But he'll be making a paycheck that should be reserved for QBs that you already know can do it, as opposed to thinking (and hoping) he can.

But maybe, just maybe, Coach Kubiak's new attitude and offense turns this thing around and provides all the tools Carr needs to rise above people's perceptions of him. Of course I hope so, for so many reasons.
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Old 02-01-2006   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Double Barrel
There's the rub, IMO. In 2004 Carr was an above average QB on a below average team. He showed signs of improving and maturing beyond certain tendencies. It is quite feasible that DC can be good enough to lead us to a winning season, and possibly the playoffs. But he'll be making a paycheck that should be reserved for QBs that you already know can do it, as opposed to thinking (and hoping) he can.

But maybe, just maybe, Coach Kubiak's new attitude and offense turns this thing around and provides all the tools Carr needs to rise above people's perceptions of him. Of course I hope so, for so many reasons.
I like this post and think it is reasonable. I'm not a big Carr fan but don't think he is just a plain horrible QB. My problem is paying Franchise QB money for a guy who may just be what we have seen..flashes of really good and in the middle of the pack for the rest. IMHO that is as risky as blowing this top pick. Hope it all works out.
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Old 02-01-2006   #17
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Here is a post by Hollywood_Texan from texanstalk that was interesting on this very subject.





There has been a lot of discussion regarding the 1st pick of the draft and expectations for next year. So, I did a little research of two points.

1. What is the average record of a team that won 5 games or less in the previous season (looking back over 10 years)?
2. Once a team reaches the Super Bowl, what does their regular season record look like for the Super Bowl year and two years back (starting from the 2000 Super Bowl)?

My conclusion is we could reach the Super Bowl in 3 years (that’s if we are of New England or Carolina type) but it is probably along the norm of 4 to 5 years like a regular building of a team in the NFL.

Here is my backup, on average a team wins 3 more games than the previous year when they won 5 games on less. There are a few (and I do mean a few) teams that have blown that out, and even fewer have regressed, but it is really consistent over the last 5 years.

As for reaching the Super Bowl, it really looks like a team needs 8 to 10 wins for two years before the Super Bowl run and then bam, make that big push for the Super Bowl.

Expectations are as follows:

2006 - 5 to 7 wins
2007 - 8 to 10 wins
2008 - 9 to 11 wins, playoff spot
2009 - Maybe the Super Bowl

Keeping Carr and drafting Bush, thinking we are going to make a Super Bowl push in two years is not realistic. Not to say it won’t happen, but it doesn’t seem reasonable, especially with a new head coach doing his first head coaching gig in the NFL. Not to mention our first four drafts have been mediocre and free-agent splashes aren’t really anything to talk about.

Meanwhile over the next four years, Vince Young could be at Tennessee (Tennessee is staring at the same level as us, they had 4 wins in 2005) and could be coming into his own at the same time we are starting our Super Bowl push in 2009. Also, keep in mind Tennessee has a coach that has been there, I think Floyd Reese is a good GM (someone is probably going to roast me on this one, but he is probably a lot better than Casserly), and they have Norm Chow as the offensive coordinator.

Bottom line, with Carr/without Carr, Bush/without Bush, Young/without Young, we are 3 to 4 years away from making a Super Bowl push, if we are lucky. The current state of the organization is more long-term than short-term, unless you plan on breaking the norm in reaching the Super Bowl.


http://www.texanstalk.com/cgi-bin/fo...num=1138171382
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Old 02-01-2006   #18
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Carolina went from 1-15 to the Super Bowl in 2 years.

San Diego went from the worst team in the league to 12-4 in one year.
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Old 02-01-2006   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tulexan
Carolina went from 1-15 to the Super Bowl in 2 years.

San Diego went from the worst team in the league to 12-4 in one year.
Did you click the link and read the whole thread? Also look at the last line of his post. "The current state of the organization is more long-term than short-term, unless you plan on breaking the norm in reaching the Super Bowl."
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Old 02-01-2006   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tulexan
Carolina went from 1-15 to the Super Bowl in 2 years.

San Diego went from the worst team in the league to 12-4 in one year.
I like these kind of stats! They give us hope!

I'm just hoping we can have our first winning season within the next two years. Once we get over that little hump, other things like playoffs and division titles will follow.
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