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Old 01-22-2006   #1
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Default DPAR ratings: DD 26th best back

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php
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Regular season totals, playoffs not included
Revised as of 1/3/2006

Running backs are ranked according to DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement. This number represents the total number of points scored due to plays where this RB carried/caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level RB in the same game situations. DPAR (and its cousin, PAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The next statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average RB in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The final statistic is Success Rate. This number represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. A player with higher VOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. A player with lower VOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more. Success Rate is further explained here. It is not adjusted for opponent.

* These numbers do not separate the performance of a running back from the performance of his offensive line. (You'll find numbers that try to do that on this page.) Be aware that one will affect the other.
* "Points scored due to plays" is based on a larger model of how yards are translated into points, and is not a measurement strictly of touchdown passes.
* All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.




DD was ranked 26th and Wells was ranked 28th
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Old 01-22-2006   #2
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I would have serious doubts about any system that results in Steven Jackson being ranked below DD and Jonathan Wells.
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Old 01-22-2006   #3
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Originally Posted by infantrycak
I would have serious doubts about any system that results in Steven Jackson being ranked below DD and Jonathan Wells.
Wasn't S. Jackson hurt for most of the year?
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Old 01-22-2006   #4
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DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average RB in the same game situations
Does this mean that DD is likely to get -6.1% then another player or do I have it backwards?
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Old 01-22-2006   #5
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Any time you go 2-14, you are going to have some out of whack stats, DD is not anywhere near the 26th best back in the NFL. In the right system, hopefully Kubiak's, DD could be a top 10 back...
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Old 01-22-2006   #6
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Originally Posted by run-david-run
Any time you go 2-14, you are going to have some out of whack stats, DD is not anywhere near the 26th best back in the NFL. In the right system, hopefully Kubiak's, DD could be a top 10 back...
So your saying that when he goes from a run oriented zone block offense to a run oriented zone block offense he's going to improve 16 slots?
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Old 01-22-2006   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LCROD
So your saying that when he goes from a run oriented zone block offense to a run oriented zone block offense he's going to improve 16 slots?
Sarcasm noted, but honestly, Kubiak's run-oriented zone block offenseis a much different run-oriented zone block offense. He understands how it is supposed to work.
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Old 01-22-2006   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Bauer
Sarcasm noted, but honestly, Kubiak's run-oriented zone block offenseis a much different run-oriented zone block offense. He understands how it is supposed to work.
Please explain....My understanding of running behind a zone blocking line is one cut and go. No room for dancing, no room for mulitple cuts at the LOS. Is HOU doing it different then DEN?
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Old 01-22-2006   #9
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Davis Voa-29th

he get the yards needed but doesn't get much more

Wells is 18th

hmm based on down and distance.. Wells stats get inflated (like all other stats) because if I recall Wells was in on shortyardage.


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Passes includes all passes to this receiver, complete and incomplete.
* Catch % is the percentage of passes to this receiver completed.


well scroll down and you see some value for davis .. receiving he is 8th with 83% catch rate.
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Old 01-22-2006   #10
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Everyone knows Texans had a lousy offense this season. It would be interesting what the rankings were last season when Texans had a pretty decent offense and record. Can someone help?
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Old 01-22-2006   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LCROD
Please explain....My understanding of running behind a zone blocking line is one cut and go. No room for dancing, no room for mulitple cuts at the LOS. Is HOU doing it different then DEN?
Either way the guys that Denver had did a much better job of Zone Blocking. Am I to beleive that Mike ANderson and Tatum Bell are better than DD? Does that also make me beleive that Reggie Bush is going to be any better behind that BS line the Texans have? Come on man he is Reggie Bush not God. With Reggie Bush your looking at maybe 2 -3 win improvement at best. Trade down and fill your holes you have on your team and DD is good enough to get you 10 wins with some help. You have a gift with that pick. You guys would be set for years in the draft if you trade it.

Keep in mind, Hershel Walker was the only player the cowboys had. The Vikings sold their soul for him. What happen there? Cowboys three superbowl wins and the Vikes are still looking to get there. Imagine what the texans could do if they traded this pick. They already have their tripplets with Carr, DD, and Johnson. Build your team around them and you might compete sooner than later.
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Old 01-23-2006   #12
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ESPN's stats rank DD slightly higher, but he is still considered an average back.
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Old 01-23-2006   #13
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This is about the right rank for Davis. He couldn't displace the starter in at least 2/3rds of the league.
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Old 01-23-2006   #14
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Go look up where Davis ranked last season, to give us a wider view of how much was Davis and how much was the team.

Davis could easily displace 1/2 of the NFL starting RBs, Vinny. I've given the numbers before; check my post history. He's in the top half and could be argued for top fifteen. This year's numbers aren't good, but no one onthe team did well.
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Old 01-23-2006   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny
This is about the right rank for Davis. He couldn't displace the starter in at least 2/3rds of the league.
Let's look at the bottom 2/3rds of the league:

19 Tatum Bell DEN 921 173 5.3 8 68
20 Ronnie Brown MIA 907 207 4.4 4 65
21 Jamal Lewis BAL 906 269 3.4 3 25
22 DeShaun Foster CAR 879 205 4.3 2 70
23 Chris Brown TEN 851 224 3.8 5 38
24 Fred Taylor JAC 787 194 4.1 3 71
25 Ricky Williams MIA 743 168 4.4 6 35
26 Curtis Martin NYJ 735 220 3.3 5 49
27 Corey Dillon NE 733 209 3.5 12 29
28 Kevin Jones DET 664 186 3.6 5 40
29 Mewelde Moore MIN 662 155 4.3 1 33
30 Antowain Smith NO 659 166 4.0 3 42


I can see only a couple of guys that DD would be absolutely better at, the rest he'd have a hard time unseating.
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Old 01-23-2006   #16
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While I don't agree with it 100%, I think it is overall pretty accurate. I'm glad to see some stats that support what I have been saying for a while. DD was a nice find for a 4th round selection, but he is merely a functional starting back.
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Old 01-23-2006   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eriadoc
Go look up where Davis ranked last season, to give us a wider view of how much was Davis and how much was the team.

Davis could easily displace 1/2 of the NFL starting RBs, Vinny. I've given the numbers before; check my post history. He's in the top half and could be argued for top fifteen. This year's numbers aren't good, but no one onthe team did well.
I know your post history and I don't think like you when it comes to evaluating football players. We don't agree on much from what I gather. You tend to be more of a homer when it comes to our players imo.

teams Dom might start for in bold, otherwise you could make a case or two from the rest, but Dom is clearly not in the top half of the NFL. 25th or 26th is about where I have him myself.

NFC West:
Seattle - Shaun Alexander
St. Louis - Steven Jackson
Arizona - Marcel Shipp
San Francisco - Kevan Barlow


NFC South:
Atlanta - Warrick Dunn
Carolina - DeShaun Foster/Stephen Davis
Tampa - Carnell Williams
New Orleans - Duece McAllister

NFC North:
Minnesota - Mewelde Moore
Green Bay - Ahman Green
Detroit - Kevin Jones
Chicago - Thomas Jones/Ced Benson

NFC East:
Dallas - Julius Jones
New York - Tiki Barber
Philly - Michael Westbrook
Washington - Clinton Portis

AFC West:
San Diego - Ladanian Tomlinson
Kansas City - Larry Johnson/Priest Holmes
Oakland - Lamont Jordan
Denver - Mike Anderson/Tatum Bell

AFC South:
Indianapolis - Edgerrin James
Jacksonville - Fred Taylor
Tennessee - Chris Brown/Travis Henry

AFC North:
Pittsburgh - Bettis/Parker/Staley
Cincinatti - Rudi Johnson
Baltimore - Jamal Lewis
Cleveland - Reuben Droughns

AFC East:
Buffalo - Willis McGahee
New York - Curtis Martin only because of age
Miami - Ronnie Brown
New England - Corey Dillon
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Old 01-23-2006   #18
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Davis put up 3158 total yards and 22 TDs in his first two years. There aren't many on your list above that did that. In this off year, in which everyone on the team underperformed, he still posted 6 TDs.

Call me a homer; that's fine. All I really care about is production. I'll agree with the sentiment that Davis doesn't have the measurables people look for. And I think a lot of people don't see the "pop" in Davis' play. It doesn't matter, though. You can take the running backs with all the flash and talent in the world (Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Foster, Chris Brown, Rudi Johgnson, etc.), but at the end of the day, Davis has outperformed those backs. They might end up with better career stats - who knows? But as of now, Davis has outperformed many of the backs on your list. You can speculate on talent and numbers, but compare Davis' first two season with any of those on your list and you'll see, he compares favorably. I know everyone wants that back that can run for 1800 yards - heck, I do too. But we have what we have and when we play to his strengths, he's very, very good. If I could trade DD for another back in the NFL, I would go with the guy that can put up 1800 yards rushing and pound it in there. Davis is just a different type of back - not better, not worse, just different.
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Old 01-23-2006   #19
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No one has mentioned (at least at first glance) that DD is 8th in receiving.. with more TDs than anyone but K. Johnson (with 5) and Westbrook (tied at 4).

That may not put him in the top 10... but that has to count towards something in regards to his worth.

As for people saying he will perform better in a scheme the same as the one he is in.... when our offense sucks in pretty much every way.. you cant blame it all on Davis. He will perform better in an offense that can move the ball in other ways besides handing it off/passing it to him.

I think Davis is an above average back.. but not elite.. and I doubt he ever will be.. but with some help from the rest of the offense, I could see him putting up good numbers.. maybe even ranking in the 7-10 area among backs in the NFL.
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Old 01-23-2006   #20
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I agree with Vinny on this one. DD is solid but not spectacular..I am not saying get Bush because this team has weaknesses more than Rb.. and if we get Bush fine, if we dont' fine

If I read the rating right.. they compare to all sttuations ..down and distance that all Rb's do .. higher the rating on (if I remember correctly) voa..means he gets his yard but not much else.. That is true on DD and wells ..the moon and stars have to allign just right for him to break it..
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