Texans In 2006: What Will Our W-L Be?

[jerek]

Once again, we are looking at some tough, tough games on our schedule in 06. However, while I initially reviewed this list and was thinking "my damn, the league hates us" ... on closer review, we have a lot of lemons in this mix as well.

Our 06 opponents, and their 05 W/L:

Buffalo (5-11)
Cleveland (6-10)
Indianapolis x2 (14-2)
Jacksonville x2 (12-4)
Tennessee x2 (4-12)
Philadelphia (6-10)
Washington (10-6)
Dallas (9-7)
Miami (9-7)
NY Giants (11-5)
NY Jets (4-12)
Oakland (4-12)

Making our '05 strength of schedule, coming into '06:

124-112. (.525) (EDIT: I didn't double count our division opponents the first time: this is the correct # and %)

Interesting: so it's not so big and bad after all.

Point: It is speculation, I know, since there are so many variables that remain in this equation, but I would like to talk about something involving this team other than Vince Young or Reggie Bush. So I thought I would pose the question: what are your current expectations for this team in the upcoming season?

Assuming the things that you reasonably expect this franchise to do in the offseason, and feel free to be as detailed as you would like.

***

My fearless prediction: bring in Kubiak, productive offseason, excitement and belief in new leadership, Carr begins to emerge, O-line holds up, defense is revamped, and we go:

9-7.

[HardKnockTexan]

Originally Posted by jerek

Once again, we are looking at some tough, tough games on our schedule in 06. However, while I initially reviewed this list and was thinking "my damn, the league hates us" ... on closer review, we have a lot of lemons in this mix as well.

Our 06 opponents, and their 05 W/L:

Buffalo (5-11)
Cleveland (6-10)
Indianapolis x2 (14-2)
Jacksonville x2 (12-4)
Tennessee x2 (4-12)
Philadelphia (6-10)
Washington (10-6)
Dallas (9-7)
Miami (9-7)
NY Giants (11-5)
NY Jets (4-12)
Oakland (4-12)

Making our '05 strength of schedule, coming into '06:

94-98. (.490)

Interesting: so it's not so big and bad after all.

Point: It is speculation, I know, since there are so many variables that remain in this equation, but I would like to talk about something involving this team other than Vince Young or Reggie Bush. So I thought I would pose the question: what are your current expectations for this team in the upcoming season?

Assuming the things that you reasonably expect this franchise to do in the offseason, and feel free to be as detailed as you would like.



My fearless prediction: bring in Kubiak, productive offseason, excitement and belief in new leadership, Carr begins to emerge, O-line holds up, defense is revamped, and we go:

9-7.

Well I figure atleast 1 of the 5 and under win teams will have a break out year and win more than 10 games and atleast 1 of the 10 and over win teams will regress.

With that said I'm not going to set myself up for disapointment like I did last season. I'd be satisfied with 6 to 7 wins.

[D-ReK]

It's far too early to predict what our record for next year will be...We don't know who our coaching staff is going to be, the FA signing period hasn't began yet, and the draft is over three months away...That being said, I'd be happy with 6-10 or 7-9 next year...

[Blake]

waaaaaay to many variables to guess on this one.

maybe in aug.

[jerek]

I think that we can split with Indy next year. This is why:

Peyton Manning looks untouchable against most defenses in this league. And yet year after year, you see a team like the Steelers or the Patriots tear him a new one. Both of these teams have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but it is there playcalling that sets them apart and reduces Manning to the JVer he inevitably plays like in these games.

If you watched Pittsburgh last week, they used a lot of creative first half blitzes. Safety (saw this a lot, or Palomalu showing blitz on almost every play), corner, and a lot of six-man rush. The blitz is of course a high-risk, high-gain play: you risk getting beat one on one or getting out of position to yield a big score, so in the second half, they backed off, played a lot of zone, gave Manning time to throw, and let him nickel and dime them down the field. But they mixed it up and were always very aggressive. He fumbled and bumbled around and looked completely lost. Guess Pittsburgh watched tape of NE doing this same thing for the last three years running.

Is it so unthinkable that we cannot bring in a DC that can employ these same schemes? I refuse to believe Fangio watched tape of our opponent, based on the soft zone coverages he repeatedly threw at Manning and every other good quarterback in this league.

I say we split Indy, sweep Tennessee, and split Jacksonville.

[HardKnockTexan]

Originally Posted by jerek

I think that we can split with Indy next year. This is why:

Peyton Manning looks untouchable against most defenses in this league. And yet year after year, you see a team like the Steelers or the Patriots tear him a new one. Both of these teams have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but it is there playcalling that sets them apart and reduces Manning to the JVer he inevitably plays like in these games.

If you watched Pittsburgh last week, they used a lot of creative first half blitzes. Safety (saw this a lot, or Palomalu showing blitz on almost every play), corner, and a lot of six-man rush. The blitz is of course a high-risk, high-gain play: you risk getting beat one on one or getting out of position to yield a big score, so in the second half, they backed off, played a lot of zone, gave Manning time to throw, and let him nickel and dime them down the field.

Is it so unthinkable that we cannot bring in a DC that can employ these same schemes? I refuse to believe Fangio watched tape of our opponent, based on the soft zone coverages he repeatedly threw at Manning and every other good quarterback in this league.

I say we split Indy, sweep Tennessee, and split Jacksonville.

This is why, if used properly, the 3-4 is so effective. You can afford to blitz a saftey as long as you have fast linebackers who can cover. The Steerlers and the Pats are very good at seeing the point of attack and plugging the hole up. This was something that our team has NEVER been able to do on a consistant basis. Either our players arent meant for the 3-4 or our coaches didnt put the players in possition to make plays. I'm not sure what the reason is but I'm praying that Kubiak spots it.

[jerek]

Originally Posted by jerek

I think that we can split with Indy next year. This is why:

Peyton Manning looks untouchable against most defenses in this league. And yet year after year, you see a team like the Steelers or the Patriots tear him a new one. Both of these teams have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but it is there playcalling that sets them apart and reduces Manning to the JVer he inevitably plays like in these games.

If you watched Pittsburgh last week, they used a lot of creative first half blitzes. Safety (saw this a lot, or Palomalu showing blitz on almost every play), corner, and a lot of six-man rush. The blitz is of course a high-risk, high-gain play: you risk getting beat one on one or getting out of position to yield a big score, so in the second half, they backed off, played a lot of zone, gave Manning time to throw, and let him nickel and dime them down the field. But they mixed it up and were always very aggressive. He fumbled and bumbled around and looked completely lost. Guess Pittsburgh watched tape of NE doing this same thing for the last three years running.

Is it so unthinkable that we cannot bring in a DC that can employ these same schemes? I refuse to believe Fangio watched tape of our opponent, based on the soft zone coverages he repeatedly threw at Manning and every other good quarterback in this league.

I say we split Indy, sweep Tennessee, and split Jacksonville.

And it is nothing against Manning. He is a great quarterback. I love the guy, I love Dungy and what he does with that team, and I think the Colts are exciting to watch. But the old maxim is so, so true; offense wins games, defense wins championships. Pretty much with the exception of the Rams, every recent Super Bowl winner has won the game on the strength and the applied creativity of their D.

I think the 3-4 is a perfectly good defense, I just think Fangio managed to make it useless. I hope Kubiak's guy can right the ship.

[hot pickle]

is the cowboys game in houston or dallas?

[Maddict5]

Originally Posted by jerek

I think that we can split with Indy next year. This is why:

Peyton Manning looks untouchable against most defenses in this league. And yet year after year, you see a team like the Steelers or the Patriots tear him a new one. Both of these teams have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but it is there playcalling that sets them apart and reduces Manning to the JVer he inevitably plays like in these games.

If you watched Pittsburgh last week, they used a lot of creative first half blitzes. Safety (saw this a lot, or Palomalu showing blitz on almost every play), corner, and a lot of six-man rush. The blitz is of course a high-risk, high-gain play: you risk getting beat one on one or getting out of position to yield a big score, so in the second half, they backed off, played a lot of zone, gave Manning time to throw, and let him nickel and dime them down the field. But they mixed it up and were always very aggressive. He fumbled and bumbled around and looked completely lost. Guess Pittsburgh watched tape of NE doing this same thing for the last three years running.

Is it so unthinkable that we cannot bring in a DC that can employ these same schemes? I refuse to believe Fangio watched tape of our opponent, based on the soft zone coverages he repeatedly threw at Manning and every other good quarterback in this league.

I say we split Indy, sweep Tennessee, and split Jacksonville.

i think you should read tmq on nfl.com to see what the steelers really did to make manning look ordinary.
also lets get through the draft and FA before opening a thread like this

[Hervoyel]

It's not too early to make a prediction. It's never too early to make a prediction. It is too early to make an accurate prediction but hey, nobody said we had to be accurate. There's no penalty for being wrong. With that in mind here's what I think.

Assuming that Kubiak does go on to be our coach.

Assuming that he hires coordinators who are better than the two chimps we had running the show up until now.

Assuming that (in my version at least) we take Bush with the first pick.

Then I think we go anywhere from 8-8 to 10-6. Seriously.

That schedule is no big deal. I see 6 games against teams that absolutely suck. Buffalo, Cleveland, Tennessee (x2), New York (Jets), and Oakland all suck. Sure we suck too but if we proceed with the outlook that we're better than our record and that we're going to get better then I think we beat these teams. These guys are going down and that right there is a 6-10 record all on it's own.

That leaves who?

Well Jacksonville usually plays us poorly so I'm calling a split there. Now all of a sudden we're 7-9 which is equal to our best season so far.

Then there's the Colts. I think we finally split with Indy next season because frankly sooner or later they're going to lay an egg. A split with the Colts brings us to 8-8

That leaves these guys: Philadelphia (6-10), Washington (10-6), Dallas (9-7), Miami (9-7), NY Giants (11-5)

We beat one of these guys and we have a winning season for the first time in our existence. It could happen.

[Hardcore Texan]

I will go with a very optimistic 8-8.

But I only count 15 opponents on that schedule, aren't we missing one? I really like this thread Jerek.

[Maddict5]

and why do people think the texans are suited to 3-4 when the NT and mlb's are the most important players in that system and guess what? the texans dont have good players at either position

[jerek]

I would just like to take a moment to point out the hypocrisy in this.

I asked for opinions, we are after all Texans fans and we are here to talk football.

So it is too early to ballpark how the Texans will perform in '06, and yet it's not too early to predict that:

- Vince Young will redefine the face of the NFL, own the record books, win Super Bowls, and make it to the Hall of Fame?
- Reggie Bush can score a TD everytime he touches the ball on his way to 2,000 all purpose yards in his rookie season?

Tell me which of those three predictions is the least of a stretch?

Unbelievable. If you want to participate, then do so, if not, take your Vince/Reggie mania elsewhere.

Please?

[jerek]

Originally Posted by dunta23

is the cowboys game in houston or dallas?

Dallas, according to this page here:

http://www.houstontexans.com/news/ne...php?PRKey=2298

[Maddict5]

Game left out is @ NE, and cowboys game is in dallas

[TheOgre]

7-9 sounds about right.

[TheOgre]

Keep in mind that Detroit, not Dallas, gets to play an AFC team on Thanksgiving Day. Unless they change the schedule format or flip-flop broadcasts by Detroit and Dallas (maybe have one of them play the AFC two years in a row), we will NEVER play Dallas on Thanksgiving.

[jerek]

Originally Posted by Maddict5

i think you should read tmq on nfl.com to see what the steelers really did to make manning look ordinary.
also lets get through the draft and FA before opening a thread like this

I am not watching the tape, I was not analyzing the game play by play, and I am writing on what I remember of the game. Since TMQ is now the inerrant voice of authority, if I was wrong about what I am recalling of the game, so be it.

As well, he correctly points out the "showing" of the blitz, an effective facet of their gameplan which I have underemphasized. Credit to TMQ on this point, maybe there are others the writer deserves as well.

And yes, Pittsburgh played a great offensive game. Regardless, my point is that the Steelers D is a very well coached and creative use of the 3-4 set, a point which, even through this great article you have referenced, still stands.

[Double Barrel]

As a realist, all I can hope for is 6-10 next season. My prediction is based on the fact that there is no way that we can address everything that is wrong with this team in one off-season.

Anything better is icing on the cake. (mmmmmmm....cake)

[jerek]

Originally Posted by Maddict5

Game left out is @ NE, and cowboys game is in dallas

Good catch, and my bad. Adds to our SOS slightly.