Join Date: Jan 2006
Rep Power: 0
For Those Who Think Bush and/or VY are "Can't Miss" prospects
Sorry in advance for the long post......
I have been of the opinion for quite awhile that we should trade down and take Brick to anchor our O-Line for the next 10 years or so. With all the differing opinions here, I figured I would do a little research. I looked at the draft starting in 2003 and went back 10 years (don't have enough info on players drafted in 2004 & 2005 to determine success or failure). I looked for skill players drafted in the top 3 vs OT's drafted in the top 10.
There were 19 skill players (QB, RB, WR) drafted in the top 3 in that 10 year span - in other words they were considered "can't miss" prospects. 9 of them can be considered complete busts - Rick Mirer, Garrison Hearst, Heath Schuler, Ki-Jana Carter, Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Joey Harrington & Charles Rogers. 3 are good players but have not reached the level expected as a top 3 pick - Drew Bledsoe, Keyshawn Johnson & David Carr. 7 have acheived superstar status or at least have begun living up to the expectations - Carson Palmer, Andre Johnson, Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair & Marshall Faulk. That's 7 out of 19 that have played at the level of a top 3 draft pick. Obviously, drafting a skill player is hit or miss.
On the flip side, looking at the tackles who were selected in the top 10 (I wouldn't want us to drop any lower then 10th) none have been a complete bust, while the list reads like a who's who of all pro/pro bowl tackles. There were 14 tackles selected in the top 10 - Orlando Pace, Jonathen Ogden, Tony Boselli, Willie Anderson, Walter Jones, Jordan Gross, Mike Williams, Bryant McKinnie, Levi Jones, Leonard Davis, Chris Samuels, Kyle Turley, Willie Roaf & Lincoln Kennedy. I have heard in the past that there is a much higher success rate when selecting "big men" with 1st round picks......This info seems to agree with that statement.
Both Reggie Bush and VY have a ton of potential....but then again so did Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, Ki-Jana Carter, Rick Mirer etc. As bad as those guys were, remember - they were considered can't miss prospects who were going to turn their respective frachises around.
Trade down and take Brick!
Join Date: Dec 2005
Rep Power: 10
Good post, there is no such thing as a "can't miss prospect."
I disagree with you on Ferguson. He plays very high, lacks ideal strength and size, and does not use his hands that well. He is a first round pick (middle), but not worthy of a top 10 pick.
Join Date: Apr 2004
Rep Power: 91707
Good post. thats what smart teams do.
IE the Patriots.
2001 Richard Seymour DE / Round 2 Matt Light LT
2002 Daniel Graham TE
2003 Ty Warren DE
2004 Vince Wilfork NT / Ben Watson TE
2005 Logan Mankins OG
Their skill players are all from the later rounds. Brady, Branch, Bethel Johnson, Asante Samuel.
Or trade, like Dillon, and Rodney Harrison.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Rep Power: 28
Let the football gods smile down on us.
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