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Old 01-14-2006   #1
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Default Plummer vs. Carr

Jake the Snake Plummer
1997-98 Arizona QB rating=73.1 2203 total yds. 220.3 per game
1998-99 Arizona QB rating=75.0 3737 toatl yds. 233.6 per game
1999-00 Arizona QB rating=50.8 2111 total yds. 175.9 per game
2000-01 Arizona QB rating=66.0 2946 total yds. 210.4 per game

Notice the drop-off after year 2, then up & down but overall pretty much middle of the road = average. Still Jake Plummer, QB, Cardinals was ranked as the top free agent two years latter in 2003 "This is a league starved for starting quarterbacks. At 28, Plummer still has plenty of good years ahead of him. To see a player of this caliber at this position on the market is unbelievable."

Now in a different system @ Denver the Broncos are once again playoff conteneders largely in part because of the maturation of Plummer & the work of OC Gary Kubiak in developing his abilities.

2003-04 Denver QB rating=91.2 2182 total yards 198.4 per game
2004-05 Denver QB rating=84.5 4089 total yards 255.6 per game
2005-06 Denver QB rating=90.2 3366 total yards 210.4 per game

David Franchise Carr

2002-03 Houston QB rating=62.8 2592 total yards 162.0 per game
2003-04 Houston QB rating=69.5 2013 total yards 167.8 per game
2004-05 Houston QB rating=83.5 3531 total yards 220.7 per game
2005-06 Houston QB rating=77.2 2488 total yards 155.5 per game

David Carr's career (60 games) QB rating=73.7
Jake Plummers career (127 games) QB rating=75.1
Jake Plummers career (pre-Kubiak) QB rating=66.22

this is only in theory of course but since coming to Denver & working in the Bronco (Kubiak) system his QB rating has risen 8.875 points. If you apply those same numbers to Carr his passer rating increases (Post Palmer) to a respectable QB rating of 82.58. comparing post to post Plumer with Kubiak only is even higher QB rating of 88.63 (this season Plummer has a 90.2 rating).

It would seem to me that Jake Plummer is an excellent comp to David Carr and shows what kind of improvement we are apt to see once Kubiak comes on board & begins working with David. I've followed Jake since his days at Arizona State & always thought he could be a decent NFL QB. I did not follow David at Fresno but he seems a little bigger & stronger in every department compared to Jake, yet if he follows the same path we should expect similar if not superior results in the right system with better coaching.

When the Patriot Bronco game starts tonight I'll be watching closely to the playcalling, Plummers reads and his reaction to pocket pressure. If you can just imagine, for one game, that could be David Carr in the Texans new system next year would that be acceptable or something we could all live with?

Obviously alot of us have some pretty strong feelings on this subject, but what if we added a top tier tackle, pass rushing specialist & middle linebacker in a better scheme with improved position coaching would that be enough to satisfy Texans fans in that rumored 5 year plan we where all led to believe?
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Old 01-14-2006   #2
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The key difference is that Jake Plummer makes stupid mistakes. He is a good QB who isn't very smart. Carr has much more potential than him, in my opinion
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Old 01-14-2006   #3
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I think Kubiak could be a great benificiary to Carr. Hopefully he can get Carr going.
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Old 01-14-2006   #4
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Originally Posted by gtexan02
The key difference is that Jake Plummer makes stupid mistakes. He is a good QB who isn't very smart. Carr has much more potential than him, in my opinion
Carr makes stupid mistakes too. He just makes ones that get him sacks instead of interceptions. I think Dom Capers taught him to fear the interception.
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Old 01-14-2006   #5
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Every QB makes stupid mistakes. To me, that's just an empty statement. I'd say that most of P. Manning's bad games came off dumb moves, and he's coming off like the best QB to ever play the game. QBs are human, and humans make stupid mistakes. Do some QBs make more stupid mistakes than others, yeah. I just think that some repetitive stupid mistakes can be fixed, which is why I'm excited about Kubiak coming to coach.
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Old 01-14-2006   #6
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Originally Posted by gtexan02
The key difference is that Jake Plummer makes stupid mistakes. He is a good QB who isn't very smart. Carr has much more potential than him, in my opinion
I don't see the difference. Carr has rocks for brains and stares down receivers and takes unnecessary sacks after 4 years. I don't find JUCO Dave or Jake too smart. I spent two hours at happy hour discussing these things and a table of 8 guys all came to the conclusion that Carr will never take you to where you want to be and alot of it is leadership and the players believing in him.
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Old 01-14-2006   #7
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Originally Posted by HoustonFrog
I don't see the difference. Carr has rocks for brains and stares down receivers and takes unnecessary sacks after 4 years. I don't find JUCO Dave or Jake too smart. I spent two hours at happy hour discussing these things and a table of 8 guys all came to the conclusion that Carr will never take you to where you want to be and alot of it is leadership and the players believing in him.


*shakes his head*
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Old 01-14-2006   #8
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Originally Posted by HoustonFrog
I don't see the difference. Carr has rocks for brains and stares down receivers and takes unnecessary sacks after 4 years. I don't find JUCO Dave or Jake too smart. I spent two hours at happy hour discussing these things and a table of 8 guys all came to the conclusion that Carr will never take you to where you want to be and alot of it is leadership and the players believing in him.
I know I do my best discussions when I'm drinking.
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Old 01-14-2006   #9
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Originally Posted by HoustonFrog
I spent two hours at happy hour discussing these things and a table of 8 guys all came to the conclusion that Carr will never take you to where you want to be and alot of it is leadership and the players believing in him.
So I should take the word of 8 guys in a bar over Dan Reeves and the seven guys that interviewed for our head coaching spot?
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Old 01-14-2006   #10
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So I should take the word of 8 guys in a bar over Dan Reeves and the seven guys that interviewed for our head coaching spot?
Woah woah woah woah woah woah...Are you telling me that Larry, Gary, Joe, Mo, Bill, Phil and Todd collectively, don't know more than Dan friggin' Reeves?
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Old 01-14-2006   #11
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The advantage that Jake has had over Carr is that the Denver TEAM that he went to is one HELL of a difference from the Texans. I see the whole Texans team improving this coming year, including Carr, but it MAY not be as much as Jake did as they are starting at MUCH different points in team development and quality.
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Old 01-14-2006   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HoustonFrog
I don't see the difference. Carr has rocks for brains and stares down receivers and takes unnecessary sacks after 4 years. I don't find JUCO Dave or Jake too smart. I spent two hours at happy hour discussing these things and a table of 8 guys all came to the conclusion that Carr will never take you to where you want to be and alot of it is leadership and the players believing in him.
Because great thinking and analysis are going to occur around two hours of happy hour.

Not to decry your work - it is a very valid part of sports, after all: who amongst us doesn't discuss the game while knocking back a few with our friends? - but you will see similar improvement in Carr's game with Kubiak calling the shots.
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Old 01-14-2006   #13
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I don't know if it's Kubiak directly or if it's the running game/WRs that's made Plummer better. Clearly, Kubiak deserves credit either way. It's a heck of a lot easier to pass with that line, a 1500 yard rusher behind you, a stud possession receiver (Rod Smith), a scary deep threat (Ashley Lelie), and a solid TE (Putzier). He didn't have a whole lot to work with in Arizona.

The line will get better next year due to coaching alone, and I expect the running game to improve if its DD or RB. We can't get worse at the TE position, but we still lack a solid #2 or deep threat outside of Johnson. There's no guarantee we can develop one or get one in the draft.

The point I want to make is, Carr's numbers will improve in a better scheme, but it might not be a Plummer turnaround. They spent a long time building that team he stepped into, and when he started making good decisions things got pretty easy. We could be two or three years away from a David Carr that plays at Plummer's current level. We could be 8 months away from it, it might never happen. There are no guarantees.
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Old 01-14-2006   #14
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Originally Posted by Dr. Toro
I don't know if it's Kubiak directly or if it's the running game/WRs that's made Plummer better. Clearly, Kubiak deserves credit either way. It's a heck of a lot easier to pass with that line, a 1500 yard rusher behind you, a stud possession receiver (Rod Smith), a scary deep threat (Ashley Lelie), and a solid TE (Putzier). He didn't have a whole lot to work with in Arizona.

The line will get better next year due to coaching alone, and I expect the running game to improve if its DD or RB. We can't get worse at the TE position, but we still lack a solid #2 or deep threat outside of Johnson. There's no guarantee we can develop one or get one in the draft.

The point I want to make is, Carr's numbers will improve in a better scheme, but it might not be a Plummer turnaround. They spent a long time building that team he stepped into, and when he started making good decisions things got pretty easy. We could be two or three years away from a David Carr that plays at Plummer's current level. We could be 8 months away from it, it might never happen. There are no guarantees.
Good post. I must concur with you statement.
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Old 01-14-2006   #15
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Originally Posted by Dr. Toro
I don't know if it's Kubiak directly or if it's the running game/WRs that's made Plummer better. Clearly, Kubiak deserves credit either way. It's a heck of a lot easier to pass with that line, a 1500 yard rusher behind you, a stud possession receiver (Rod Smith), a scary deep threat (Ashley Lelie), and a solid TE (Putzier). He didn't have a whole lot to work with in Arizona.

The line will get better next year due to coaching alone, and I expect the running game to improve if its DD or RB. We can't get worse at the TE position, but we still lack a solid #2 or deep threat outside of Johnson. There's no guarantee we can develop one or get one in the draft.

The point I want to make is, Carr's numbers will improve in a better scheme, but it might not be a Plummer turnaround. They spent a long time building that team he stepped into, and when he started making good decisions things got pretty easy. We could be two or three years away from a David Carr that plays at Plummer's current level. We could be 8 months away from it, it might never happen. There are no guarantees.
I think Gaffney is actually very similar to Lelie, and I expect that, provided we resign him, you will see a similar aspect develop in his game. While it is true that we don't have a dominant "threat" at #2 WR, you will find that most teams in this league do not have a dominant player, merely one that is reliable and can catch the ball, which is what Gaffney provides.

The simple truth is that Carr has not gotten the ball to him much this year, whether you view this as a fault of the O-line or Carr locking onto receivers, in which case I believe it is due to both. Either way, expect both Carr and Gaffney to get much better this year.
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Old 01-14-2006   #16
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Originally Posted by bigTEXan8
I know I do my best discussions when I'm drinking.
I am not saying that the roundtable knows more than Reeves, etc. but the forum is for opinions and I found it quite telling that the same problems with Carr came up in every conversation. Considering that his own teammates say the same thing I'm not really repeating anything new. The comment above said Carr had more smarts considering the dumb moves Jake makes. I don't look at JUCO Dave as any different with his mistakes................and you guys are all lying if you don't think the best sports talk comes over alot of cold beers.
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Old 01-14-2006   #17
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I think Gaffney is actually very similar to Lelie
Nope not even close.

More like a possession WR vs a deep threat WR with way more speed than the possesion WR.
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Old 01-14-2006   #18
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Speaking of Kubiak, I can't wait to see the Pats win so we can get a head coach. Start settling some of this business.
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Old 01-14-2006   #19
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Originally Posted by Dr. Toro
Speaking of Kubiak, I can't wait to see the Pats win so we can get a head coach. Start settling some of this business.
thats making things too easy:brickwall these matters will not resolve themselves easily or expeditiously. if it helps just adopt their system as your own (Texans) instead of seeing Plummer visualize Carr in the pocket ( ) well nevermind just enjoy the game & lets pull for our COACH to win
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Old 01-14-2006   #20
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Considering that his own teammates say the same thing I'm not really repeating anything new.
Could we have a link to his own teammates saying things please.
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