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Old 01-11-2006   #1
LBC_Justin
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Default Fear and Loathing in Houston

This draft is already causing me sleepless nights and crazy thoughts and we are months away.

Here are my concerns...

No this topic is not to talk about the who we should pick.

In my fantasy errrr.......Nightmare.

We take Vince Young.
Vince turns out to be Michael Brooks....but...
We let go of David Carr and just like Steve Young he moves on wins Mulitiple Superbowls on his way to the Hall of Fame. Not so crazy he had a college career much like David Carr and then suffered for a few years behind a weak O-line in Tampa Bay before ending up with the Niners.
Reggie Bush turns out to be the next [insert your favorite legendary Running Back], is a one man highlight reel and is the running part of the next Dynasty.
I can already see it.

The other side of the Coin:

We take Reggie Bush.
Reggie turns out to be Ki-Jana Carter. Early in his career he gets injured and he is DONE.
David Carr shows just enough promise to keep him, but the team and his play never get beyond mediocrity, leading us to several seasons of 5, 6 and 7 wins.
Vince Young turns out the be the hero and leads his team to multiple superbowls and becomes the Michael Jordan of the NFL. Everyone is talking about who is going the be the next Vince Young in the NFL. We miss out on what could have been the greatest sports story ever told, local kid brings home the National Championship in College and then gets drafted by his Hometown and leads them to years of dominance. All this in the "Football" state...TEXAS.

The third side of the coin is we trade down for 3 guys who two years from now are sacking groceries at Krogers, while both Young and Bush become superstars.

In my mind....there is no right choice. LOL
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Old 01-11-2006   #2
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The truth is this team is in a very good position to get better. With the *****ic coaching staff gone and either VY, Bush, or a large influx of fresh, mostly talented players, this team is bound to show marked improvement and be on it's way to future winning seasons. It's really not a matter of blowing it as much as it is a matter of which choice is the best. Don't worry--this is the beginning of something special.

I want to trade down, but VY will be a very good QB and Bush would, at the very least, solve every WR problem this team has ever had. Even if we choose the worst possible choice of HC, we will still be better off than we were. We are on the way up. It's just a matter of time now.
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Old 01-11-2006   #3
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LBC, that's an "Instant Classic".

This is yet another reason I wish we had somebody OTHER than Casserly calling the shots! :brickwall
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Old 01-11-2006   #4
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I agree we do need somebody other than Casserly calling the shots, and no one can really tell rightnow how Bush and Young will turn out, they both could be the most dominate players in their respective positions or on the other hand both could turn out to be busts. Can't tell now
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Old 01-11-2006   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samer
I agree we do need somebody other than Casserly calling the shots, and no one can really tell rightnow how Bush and Young will turn out, they both could be the most dominate players in their respective positions or on the other hand both could turn out to be busts. Can't tell now

Please post more on this subject. I have been saying this for weeks.. Some of the best players have come out of rounds 2 and 3. And some of the biggest busts have been 1st rounders. One never really knows until they play NFL Footbal.
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Old 01-11-2006   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samer
I agree we do need somebody other than Casserly calling the shots
The good news on that front is that he isn't the factor in the draft he once was. He has input along with the new coach, scouts, Reeves and McNair. I think he is on a pretty short leash and the desicions will be collaborative rather than a lone ranger type of effort.
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Old 01-11-2006   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by edo783
The good news on that front is that he isn't the factor in the draft he once was. He has input along with the new coach, scouts, Reeves and McNair. I think he is on a pretty short leash and the desicions will be collaborative rather than a lone ranger type of effort.
Let's hope so.

LBC...I had to give you rep points for that one. Very well stated!
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Old 01-11-2006   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samer
...and no one can really tell rightnow how Bush and Young will turn out, they both could be the most dominate players in their respective positions or on the other hand both could turn out to be busts. Can't tell now
True. So as an organization, the Texans can't worry so much about who will be a bust (which seems to be the arguments for/against Bush/Young on both sides of the fence).

They have to focus more on who has the most potential and upside. Both players look good. If they both turn out to be great, which one would mean the most to the team? We don't know....McNair and Co. will have to answer that before the make their choice.
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Old 01-12-2006   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by disaacks3
This is yet another reason I wish we had somebody OTHER than Casserly calling the shots! :brickwall
I think that's already happening. Casserly's wings have been clipped quite a bit since Reeves came in.

First, I'm sure he will have input but he will not make the final decision on the new head coach. That will be NcNair.

Second, I'm sure he will have input but he will not make the call on the first pick of the draft. I think that will be McNair and the new head coach. Furthermore, I think the new head coach will be more involved than ever in the entire draft selection process (at least Day 1). The irony is that Casserly has been blamed for listening too much to the coaches and he has often bristled when asked about the wisdom of allowing coaches to make draft day decisions, but from reading the tea leaves it seems that McNair may be doing just that by intentionally weakening the GM position and strengthening the head coach position in terms of draft day decisions (re: McNair's comments the day Capers was fired). You know the new head coach is getting to make significant input on draft strategy this year simply by outlining his offensive and defensive plans during the interview process.

Third, during the interviews, Casserly has said himself that the interview team defers to Reeves on "technical questions," i.e., x's and o's.

I wouldn't be surprised if McNair has already told Casserly to stay around and 'help' administratively through the draft and signing period but to make plans for after that... but this is all my wishful thinking of course.
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Old 01-12-2006   #10
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i really think the best choice here is to draft Vince Young. He's the hometown hero, he has the most heart and displays the most leadership among the three top picks. You can't go wrong with VY, cause once you tell him he can't do something, he turns around and does it, and shocks the Nation.
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Old 01-12-2006   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txlonghorn14
i really think the best choice here is to draft Vince Young. He's the hometown hero, he has the most heart and displays the most leadership among the three top picks. You can't go wrong with VY, cause once you tell him he can't do something, he turns around and does it, and shocks the Nation.
Unless you tell him to be a pocket passer and to work on his delivery.

I'm sorry that was a low blow, but it's late and I found humor in it. I go to UT so I support him as an athlete, and until he is selected by the Texans, I am against him joining the team.
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Old 01-12-2006   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txlonghorn14
i really think the best choice here is to draft Vince Young. He's the hometown hero, he has the most heart and displays the most leadership among the three top picks. You can't go wrong with VY, cause once you tell him he can't do something, he turns around and does it, and shocks the Nation.
I agree VY will have an impact on this team, plus being a hometown hereo, VY has proved people wrong and he will do it again in the NFL!
VY for president 2008!
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Old 01-12-2006   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LBC_Justin
This draft is already causing me sleepless nights and crazy thoughts and we are months away.

In my mind....there is no right choice. LOL
I have good news - I have identified your problem.

You are doing something that everyone did in the recent past. You are considering "downside". In the past few years (starting in the NBA I believe), the overwhelming consideration of scouts, GMs, and fans is of upside.

There are two solutions to your "problem". First you can join the "upside-only" legions.

However, if you can struggle through this draft period looking at upside and downside, you will be better off in the end. You won't have to start "fire everybody" threads if things don't turn out perfectly, and you won't have to lie next year and say "I knew it all the time".
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Old 01-12-2006   #14
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Default Nightmares??? I will tell you about nightmares!!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by LBC_Justin
This draft is already causing me sleepless nights and crazy thoughts and we are months away.

Here are my concerns...

No this topic is not to talk about the who we should pick.

In my fantasy errrr.......Nightmare.

We take Vince Young.
Vince turns out to be Michael Brooks....but...
We let go of David Carr and just like Steve Young he moves on wins Mulitiple Superbowls on his way to the Hall of Fame. Not so crazy he had a college career much like David Carr and then suffered for a few years behind a weak O-line in Tampa Bay before ending up with the Niners.
Reggie Bush turns out to be the next [insert your favorite legendary Running Back], is a one man highlight reel and is the running part of the next Dynasty.
I can already see it.

The other side of the Coin:

We take Reggie Bush.
Reggie turns out to be Ki-Jana Carter. Early in his career he gets injured and he is DONE.
David Carr shows just enough promise to keep him, but the team and his play never get beyond mediocrity, leading us to several seasons of 5, 6 and 7 wins.
Vince Young turns out the be the hero and leads his team to multiple superbowls and becomes the Michael Jordan of the NFL. Everyone is talking about who is going the be the next Vince Young in the NFL. We miss out on what could have been the greatest sports story ever told, local kid brings home the National Championship in College and then gets drafted by his Hometown and leads them to years of dominance. All this in the "Football" state...TEXAS.

The third side of the coin is we trade down for 3 guys who two years from now are sacking groceries at Krogers, while both Young and Bush become superstars.

In my mind....there is no right choice. LOL


Oh yeah, I am right with you with the bad nightmare stuff.

Let me add a few others. <shudder>

Neither of your nightmares have the studs going to TN or Dallas.

The plastic surgeon maven to the north wanted a "new Mike Vick" so bad that he reached up and drafted Quincy Freaking Carter (someone not in the same universe statistically as VY in college).

Bud the Dud had great success with Air McNair--you could completely see him grabbing VY with the third pick, just like he grabbed Stevo with the third pick. Stevo was supposed to need a lot more seasoning, had questions about his football knowledge, played against bad competition (as an aside, all this Big 12 is down this year talk in comparison is kinda funny--and if you picked Big 12 teams in your bowl pool, you prolly did alright this year).

Whoever we pick, whether it is one person or multiple picks is going to be facing an uphill battle. The pressure and the battle against the opportunity costs of giving up other alternatives. Those costs are a lot higher if part of our potential fan base is eroded because they are @#$%*& that Dallas or TN got a stud player and that player thrives. If Carr thought he already was being treated unfair after being behind that line and getting grief from the fans, he knows nothing yet if he stays and they don't have immediate success with a new coach and system (fairly or unfairly). I like Carr a lot and think he has a future in the league, but it might be best for everyone if he gets a new start.

And as a team that is relatively new, and doesn't have much team cohesion and tradition, it will be harder for any draft pick to succeed here versus a team that is more established.

Some people say that CC is bad because he hasn't drafted as well as the Patriots or the Steelers, but it is much easier to put rookies on a good team than it is on a team that is not so good. Cuz rookies make mistakes and need peer mentoring beyond what just the coaches can do.

There are so few draftees that can thrive no matter what situation they are put in. This is especially the case in a large team sport like football. Maybe VY or Bush are sure bets no matter where they go, but theoretically, it is possible that a VY here does substantially worse than a VY with McNair as a mentor does in TN. Or Bush here, does substantially worse than he does with a team with a better line. Or a more established cohesive coaching staff and scheme.

People often completely blow that concept off when looking at draft busts and finds. Though it works the other way too--rookies can show that they can play on bad teams faster because there is no depth and they get a chance earlier.

If we were a more established franchise, with an identity and long tradition of winning, maybe I would be less tempted to take the VY pick. I am all over the upside of what a successful VY could do for our franchise. It is a huge upside. There has been all sorts of hype and exaggeration and whatnot on this point, but given all the nightmare scenarios out there, taking VY as the first pick just seems to be the thing that makes the nightmares not so bad, because he is just not someone I would want to bet against succeeding.

Here's another nice nightmare scenario--we pick VY in the draft, he holds up the jersey, he's happy, his family is happy, the general public fans and some other Texans fans are happy, and then we trade him for some players and a boatload of picks and maybe a sack of potatoes. Ish.


I will be OK with the Texans whatever they do, and I understand better than most of the general public fans that there are lots of things that go into draft decisions--I am actually more afraid of VY going to the badmans teams, that would get a little ugly in Houston for a while.

I keep trying to think of the 1st pick as good, but my brain is very bad and keeps thinking of bad things.
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Old 01-12-2006   #15
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IMHO, Casserly was relieved of most of his duties when the Reeves came in. They couldn't s-can Capers, his staff and Casserly at the same time or all the work they did would have been lost. They have to get Casserly's knowledge base transferred before they can show him the door.
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Old 01-12-2006   #16
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"I keep trying to think of the 1st pick as good, but my brain is very bad and keeps thinking of bad things."

Oh no, your brain is right, the first pick means you have no excuse if you blow it and blow it is about all you can do with a first pick. Why? But invariably he's viewed as a bust because because one player can't fix a pathetic team (the kind that picks first).
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Old 01-12-2006   #17
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Really, you're just experiencing the anxiety that every Houston sports fan experiences. Aside from the Rockets, this city's sports teams have trained this city to never be more than cautiously optimistic. The Texans haven't yet broken our hearts, but it's coming. And when it does, it will be a doozy.
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Old 01-12-2006   #18
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I come back to a few good statements from the late great Vince Lombarbi:

“Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser.”

“Winning is not a sometime thing; it's an all time thing. You don't win once in a while, you don't do things right once in a while, you do them right all the time. Winning is habit. Unfortunately, so is losing.”

Once you learn to quit, it becomes a habit”



All of the above are habits developed by Mr. David Carr.



Take Vince Young and don’t look back!
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Old 01-12-2006   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SportsJunkie
I come back to a few good statements from the late great Vince Lombarbi:

Once you learn to quit, it becomes a habit”
Sorry, gotta call BS on this one. Name me a game where David Carr quit?

And based on the other statements, I guess we might as well dismantle the team and start completely over.
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Old 01-12-2006   #20
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My worst nightmare is drafting VY. I really don't think he's going to be any better than Vick, who isn't that good to begin with. Zone-read does not translate well into NFL. We need to trade away our top pick, drop back to get DeBrickshaw to solidfy the line, a solid corner that can start right away.

I find it so funny that everyone wants to blame Carr when it was the defense that couldn't hold a lead to save their life. Did we have a lot of leads to begin with...no, but that doesn't let them off the hook. Besides that, Carr spent so much time on his back, the IRS thinks he's a hooker. No, couldn't have been the short-bus play-calling that we experienced all year, the swiss-cheese o-line, the laughable D. Nope, not any of that.
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