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Old 01-10-2006   #1
Toxicology
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Default Carr/Bush/Johnson = Manning/James/Harrison

Administrators - If this violates the warning about multiple threads on the Bush/Young debate, sorry. Please merge into another thread.

I don't post much and would like to hear comments regarding this. I won't bother citing all the evidence, but from what we have heard, I think this is what McNair is thinking and he will choose Bush.

McNair wants to take the course that has the highest upside potential - which would be (1) betting on Carr developing into the QB everyone thought he could be when originally selected, and (2) Bush becoming an elite RB. All statements from Reeves, Casserly, Kubiak, and McNair indicate that they believe Carr is the man and will improve drastically under better coaching. Likewise, all statements indicate that they think Bush is a tremendous prospect and will become an elite RB. If so, Carr/Bush and Johnson is our answer to Manning, James and Harrison. We're picking Bush.

I don't agree because Carr hasn't showed enough (even under adverse circumstances). I highly doubt he will be more than above average. I give a lot of weight to mental toughness and ability to make plays as quarterback. Carr just hasn't shown the ability to go through his progressions consistently.

Likewise, I have a lot of reservations about Bush becoming desmond howard, rocket ismail or eric metcalf. I'm in favor of taking VY but exercising a 2 yr option on Carr, for the following reasons.

1. IMO, the new coaching staff will have more impact on the Texans from a W-L perspective in 2006. If Bob McNair is being realistic, 6-7 wins for 2006 is the goal. The new coaching staff can probably get there, regardless of whether we get Young or Bush. Switch to the 4-3. Run DD and Morency behind the Denver Bronco's line. That's enough for 6 to 7 wins. Shoot, the 2005 team should have won 4-5 games.

2. Then who to chose, VY or Bush? What to do with Carr? The best way for Bob McNair to hedge his bets is to pick up the 2 year option on Carr and draft VY. In 2006, Carr gets one last shot to show what he's got. While he's doing that, VY is learning and the fans aren't going beserk. The team wins 6-7 games, the fans aren't angry b/c VY is waiting in the wings. After a 2-14 debacle, 6-7 wins is ok.

3. What's worse for Carr? Draft VY and the fans boo every time Carr throws an incompletion, chanting VY's name? OR, let VY go Tennessee and the fans will boo every time Carr throws a bad pass. It's the same. The only difference is that the fans won't be upset at the team if VY is here.

4. Doesn't McNair want an "impact player"? Yes, but see point 1 above. Bush won't have that much of an "impact" from a W-L standpoint. (my opinion). Bush's impact would be from a gate/fan interest standpoing. VY kicks bush's *** in that category.

5. Fast forward to mid or end 2006: At that point, You know a lot more about Carr's ability, you have insight on VY's progress.

Here are the possibilities for 2006:

A. Let's say Carr takes a huge step forward and you are faced with dealing VY. The rest of the world doesn't know squat about Vince's progress and he is still hot property. In next year's draft, it is entirely conceivable that you could package VY and our first round pick for Adrian Petersen. No stretch whatsoever. In 2007, you have a polished Carr and Adrian Petersen. Yeah, that doesn't stink. I'll go on record right now and say that Adrian Petersen's NFL career will crush Reggie Bush's (and I hate OU). What about angering the fan base? Well, if Carr is proving to be the guy, the fans will understand a lot better than if McNair declines to draft VY now, before anyone knows whether Carr will ever live up to his "potential".

B. Alternatively, let's say Carr improves, but not much, and VY is progressing. You are faced with trading Carr for a 3rd rounder. So, in 2007, you start VY, DD/Morency. Under this assumption though (that Carr doesn't improve much in 2006 under the new staff), thank goodness you didn't pick Bush instead of VY. IMO, A mediocre Carr plus Bush is probably not good enough to get into the playoffs, certainly not enough to unseat Indy, and certainly not enough to win it all. Even if Bush becomes an elite running back. Remember, Indy has Manning, James and Harrison - Mannign being the most important piece. Assuming that Bush becomes an elite rusher (and not Eric Metcalf, Rocket Ismail or Desmond Howard), we'd have James and Harrison, but no Manning. A 2nd year VY has the potential (in the future) to push us into the playoffs. No lock to do so, but potential with a high upside.

C. Alternatively, Carr doesn't improve, and VY looks clueless, and Bush was Rookie of the Year with 1,400 yards rushing. We'd be better off with Carr and Bush, but we could still deal VY. Nobody else knows that VY can't get the job done. This is our worst case scenario, but the down side is controlled.

In short, by taking BY, you delay the QB decision, control the downside risk, take the path with the highest upside, and enable yourself to make the decision based on much more information -- all at little or no cost to the franchise in terms of Wins and Losses and fan base.

But McNair is swinging for the fences, and will take Bush.

Last edited by Toxicology; 01-10-2006 at 12:46 PM.
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Old 01-10-2006   #2
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They aren't going to draft Vince and then trade him after 1 year because they would take a huge cap hit.
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Old 01-10-2006   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tulexan
They aren't going to draft Vince and then trade him after 1 year because they would take a huge cap hit.
i've never understood this as a reason not to trade. If you trade a VY in year 2 and take a huge cap hit, it stands to reason that you would deal him to a team for equal talent/potential, which team would take a similar cap hit. Isn't that right?
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Old 01-10-2006   #4
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Not really because if we give him a $15 million signing bonus and trade him after a year we have to accelerate the amortized bonus into one year which means that we will have $12 million or so in dead money that we can't spend.
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Old 01-10-2006   #5
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..and just because both teams go into cap hell doesn't make it work either. I think we all need to remember that the NFL is not a trading factory like the NBA and MLB. All these wild scenarios of keeping and trading will not happen. If you draft VY - cut Carr. Trade for a Volek. There are basic our 'trade' options.
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Old 01-10-2006   #6
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Your thread name is false, and misleading. Im pretty sure you shouldnt be sticking words into the owners mouth.
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Old 01-10-2006   #7
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Carr is not manning. Johnson is as good as harrison. James and Bush are similar. I can see something like this accept for the Carr/Manning deal. Which would screw up the whole idea. I more or less see it like this - Carr/Johnson/Bush = Palmer/R.Johnson/C.Johnson
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Old 01-10-2006   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by THE NFL DRAFT
Your thread name is false, and misleading. Im pretty sure you shouldnt be sticking words into the owners mouth.
Actually, it may or may not be false.

But it is somewhat misleading and that's not my intent. If the admins can change the thread name, that would be great.
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Old 01-10-2006   #9
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First I'd like to say this evaluation of David Carr was done prior to knowing Vince Young would make himself eligible for the Draft. Keeping Carr, says we are more committed to Carr, than we are to winning. It also says Carr is above scrutiny. He should get some of the Blame for what has happened here. If he is the leader of this team on the Field, then he is just as much to blame, as Casserly, or Capers.
So I say we draft Vince. He'll be our QB of the future. Carr has 8 games to get his stock up. He has to win four of those 8, for the right to play the last 8 games.

I hope David can prove that he is the Quarterback we all thought he should be. But I don't want to pass on Vince. If he is all that, and at the end of next season then we'll have a difficult decision. But we'd have better information to make that decision. We'd have a better idea of how Vince will do in the NFL, and we'll have 5 full seasons showing us what he can do.
The upside on Vince is great enough, IMHO that it will be worth the pick. The evidence we currently have on Carr, makes it worth the pick.
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Old 01-10-2006   #10
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If Reeves and all of the talent evaluators believe that with the right coaching Carr can be a very successful QB, then how does the Rose Bowl change anything? Did Carr play in the Rose Bowl and throw a bunch of interceptions?
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Old 01-10-2006   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toxicology
Administrators - If this violates the warning about multiple threads on the Bush/Young debate, sorry. Please merge into another thread.

I don't post much and would like to hear comments regarding this. I won't bother citing all the evidence, but from what we have heard, I think this is what McNair is thinking and he will choose Bush.

McNair wants to take the course that has the highest upside potential - which would be (1) betting on Carr developing into the QB everyone thought he could be when originally selected, and (2) Bush becoming an elite RB. All statements from Reeves, Casserly, Kubiak, and McNair indicate that they believe Carr is the man and will improve drastically under better coaching. Likewise, all statements indicate that they think Bush is a tremendous prospect and will become an elite RB. If so, Carr/Bush and Johnson is our answer to Manning, James and Harrison. We're picking Bush.

I don't agree because Carr hasn't showed enough (even under adverse circumstances). I highly doubt he will be more than above average. I give a lot of weight to mental toughness and ability to make plays as quarterback. Carr just hasn't shown the ability to go through his progressions consistently.

Likewise, I have a lot of reservations about Bush becoming desmond howard, rocket ismail or eric metcalf. I'm in favor of taking VY but exercising a 2 yr option on Carr, for the following reasons.

1. IMO, the new coaching staff will have more impact on the Texans from a W-L perspective in 2006. If Bob McNair is being realistic, 6-7 wins for 2006 is the goal. The new coaching staff can probably get there, regardless of whether we get Young or Bush. Switch to the 4-3. Run DD and Morency behind the Denver Bronco's line. That's enough for 6 to 7 wins. Shoot, the 2005 team should have won 4-5 games.

2. Then who to chose, VY or Bush? What to do with Carr? The best way for Bob McNair to hedge his bets is to pick up the 2 year option on Carr and draft VY. In 2006, Carr gets one last shot to show what he's got. While he's doing that, VY is learning and the fans aren't going beserk. The team wins 6-7 games, the fans aren't angry b/c VY is waiting in the wings. After a 2-14 debacle, 6-7 wins is ok.

3. What's worse for Carr? Draft VY and the fans boo every time Carr throws an incompletion, chanting VY's name? OR, let VY go Tennessee and the fans will boo every time Carr throws a bad pass. It's the same. The only difference is that the fans won't be upset at the team if VY is here.

4. Doesn't McNair want an "impact player"? Yes, but see point 1 above. Bush won't have that much of an "impact" from a W-L standpoint. (my opinion). Bush's impact would be from a gate/fan interest standpoing. VY kicks bush's *** in that category.

5. Fast forward to mid or end 2006: At that point, You know a lot more about Carr's ability, you have insight on VY's progress.

Here are the possibilities for 2006:

A. Let's say Carr takes a huge step forward and you are faced with dealing VY. The rest of the world doesn't know squat about Vince's progress and he is still hot property. In next year's draft, it is entirely conceivable that you could package VY and our first round pick for Adrian Petersen. No stretch whatsoever. In 2007, you have a polished Carr and Adrian Petersen. Yeah, that doesn't stink. I'll go on record right now and say that Adrian Petersen's NFL career will crush Reggie Bush's (and I hate OU). What about angering the fan base? Well, if Carr is proving to be the guy, the fans will understand a lot better than if McNair declines to draft VY now, before anyone knows whether Carr will ever live up to his "potential".

B. Alternatively, let's say Carr improves, but not much, and VY is progressing. You are faced with trading Carr for a 3rd rounder. So, in 2007, you start VY, DD/Morency. Under this assumption though (that Carr doesn't improve much in 2006 under the new staff), thank goodness you didn't pick Bush instead of VY. IMO, A mediocre Carr plus Bush is probably not good enough to get into the playoffs, certainly not enough to unseat Indy, and certainly not enough to win it all. Even if Bush becomes an elite running back. Remember, Indy has Manning, James and Harrison - Mannign being the most important piece. Assuming that Bush becomes an elite rusher (and not Eric Metcalf, Rocket Ismail or Desmond Howard), we'd have James and Harrison, but no Manning. A 2nd year VY has the potential (in the future) to push us into the playoffs. No lock to do so, but potential with a high upside.

C. Alternatively, Carr doesn't improve, and VY looks clueless, and Bush was Rookie of the Year with 1,400 yards rushing. We'd be better off with Carr and Bush, but we could still deal VY. Nobody else knows that VY can't get the job done. This is our worst case scenario, but the down side is controlled.

In short, by taking BY, you delay the QB decision, control the downside risk, take the path with the highest upside, and enable yourself to make the decision based on much more information -- all at little or no cost to the franchise in terms of Wins and Losses and fan base.

But McNair is swinging for the fences, and will take Bush.
are you saying that carr, bush, and johnson = manning, james, harrison???

i didnt actually read ur article, but if this is what u are trying to get to, then this is rediculous. carr, bush, and johnson will NOT = manning, james, and harrison for at least 3 more years.

the texans o-line is a piece of used diaper compared to the colts o-line. manning is a far smarter QB than carr and is far more experienced. this colts combo is the most prolific in all the NFL. carr could not consistently get the ball to AJ like manning could to harrison. i see more upside in bush than i do with the edge, but ya gotta have an o-line to block for em. the texans run blocking is actually pretty decent, but without a steady and consistent passing game, the running backs job becomes much harder.

we can start making evaluations about david carr when:

1. we get a credible offensive line that can pass block.
2. when we get offensive schemes and coaches that will utilize carr's strengths appropiately
3. add another WR to the fold that can RUN like a mutha!

...until then, leave carr alone. he hasnt pulled the joey harrington yet.
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Old 01-10-2006   #12
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And what's the Joey Harrington?? Poor Play behind a poor Offensive line?? Now what was it about Jeff Garcia(who isn't half as talented as Vince) that made that team better??
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Old 01-10-2006   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas
Carr is not manning. Johnson is as good as harrison. James and Bush are similar. I can see something like this accept for the Carr/Manning deal. Which would screw up the whole idea. I more or less see it like this - Carr/Johnson/Bush = Palmer/R.Johnson/C.Johnson
I have to disaree. Bush and James are not similar. Bush is a homerun hitter with speed to burn. James is a NFL prototype back who can run with power between thre tackles. Bush may be great but he is not in the mold of James. I just can't compare any of our three with their three since the three of them have clicked and set marks that may not be touched on offense.
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Old 01-10-2006   #14
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John Lopez stated that to get Vince Young, you have to pass on Carr and Bush. Now that's kind of hard to swallow, once you think about it.
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Old 01-10-2006   #15
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IMO, David Carr should improve under better coacking (hoepfully Kubiak), better o-line play(free agency, draft, coaching), and more weapons on offense (Bush RB/WR and Davis in the backfield and hopefully a TE).
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Old 01-10-2006   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TEXANS84
John Lopez stated that to get Vince Young, you have to pass on Carr and Bush. Now that's kind of hard to swallow, once you think about it.
IMHO, Lopez articles are a waste of good ink and paper. I won't even read his articles anymore.

If I had my way, the Texans would give Carr the 2 year option, they would draft Young, and then fix the O-line by signing Bentley from New Orleans and then grab a top LG with the 2nd round pick.

Before anyone thought Young would declare for the draft, I was in the trade down group. I have thought all along that Reggie Bush will be a bust in the NFL, and after watching the Rose Bowl, I was even more certain. If the Texans decide not to take Young, I would still not take Bush. I would much rather have Lindale White than Reggie Bush, because I think White will be a much better NFL RB. I see Reggie Bush as another Antwan Randel El, and I just can't see spending a #1 pick on a guy like that.

I still think we should give Carr the 2-year option, and draft Vince Young. While we are giving Carr his chance to prove himself next year, I think Young can be given some reps as a WR as well as his reps as the back-up QB. With Young in as a WR, the Texans would have so many options. Just Youngs presence on the field, would open up both the passing and running game, because of the defenses focus on him. The threat of some kind of trick play would always be there.
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Old 01-10-2006   #17
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Quote:
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IMHO, Lopez articles are a waste of good ink and paper. I won't even read his articles anymore.
I'm sorry you don't agree with him.
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Old 01-10-2006   #18
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Yeah Lopez has nothing on McClain and Justice
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Old 01-10-2006   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tulexan
Yeah Lopez has nothing on McClain and Justice
I didn't say anything about McClain nor Justice. I will say this now, they are better than Lopez, but that isn't saying much. IMHO, the Chronicle has some of the worst sportswriters in the country. Even though McClain and Justice are better than Lopez, they still aren't very good.
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Old 01-10-2006   #20
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Frankly, I am getting tired of the media's constant promotion. I hope VY pays them for all this free publicity when he gets his many millions. So much for objective reporting. And they will be the first to turn on him when it all goes south. The media loves to build people up just to tear them down.
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