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Old 12-27-2005   #1
TheOgre
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Default SOS going into last week

I'm still upset that the Saints let Detroit convert a 4th and 17 at the end of last week's game to get in FG range to win it.

Current Opponent Wins
New Orleans 124
Houston 128
NY Jets 128
Green Bay 130
San Francisco 131


If Finish 3-13, the Opponent's Win Range
New Orleans 131 -135 (131 and add one for wins by Giants, Detroit, Green Bay, or St. Louis)

Houston 133-138 (133 and add one for wins by Buffalo, Pitt., Indi., Seattle, or St. Louis)

NY Jets 135-139 (135 and add one for wins by Oakland, Balt., KC, or Jacksonville)

Green Bay 137-140 (137 and add one for wins by Detroit, Cinci., or Philly)

San Fran. 136-143 (136 and add one for wins by Giants, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Chicago, or St. Louis and add 2 for a win by Seattle)
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Last edited by TheOgre; 12-28-2005 at 11:10 AM.
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Old 12-27-2005   #2
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Do you not have to add 2 to the win total if a division member wins, since
they appear in your schedule twice ? So for example in AZ vs. Indy, a AZ win is +1 but an Indy win is +2 in our SOS when calculating wins.
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Old 12-27-2005   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nunusguy
Do you not have to add 2 to the win total if a division member wins, since
they appear in your schedule twice ? So for example in AZ vs. Indy, a AZ win is +1 but an Indy win is +2 in our SOS when calculating wins.
I believe he's rolled a AZ win into the 133 number, so you would need to add just one if Indy won, since the guaranteed +1 is already included.

128 (current)
+2 (Titans/Jax)
+1 (Cincin/KC)
+1 (Balt/Cleve)
+1 (Az*/Indy)
=
133 - this is the lowest possible number we can have
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Old 12-27-2005   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarg01
I believe he's rolled a AZ win into the 133 number, so you would need to add just one if Indy won, since the guaranteed +1 is already included.
That is correct. I tried to simplify it as much as possible.
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Old 12-27-2005   #5
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You do need to bump up Green Bay one to 137-140, though and strike Seattle from the +1. They have to lose to Seattle to stay 3-13 for the tiebreaker to matter to us.

It's worth pointing out that the 49ers can't get ahead of the Texans. The best they can manage is a coin flip and they need a septecta (like a trifecta with 7 conditions) to even do that.

Last edited by Sarg01; 12-27-2005 at 12:47 PM.
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Old 12-27-2005   #6
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Good catch. Done.
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Old 12-27-2005   #7
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Was looking for a simplistic analysis of this situation...thanks Ogre. I guess if we win next week it atleast helps our own SOS by decreasing our opponents' wins by one .
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Old 12-27-2005   #8
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so in reality, Green Bay cannot achieve the #1 pick anyway because if everything goes right for them, their lowest strength of schedule is still higher than New Orleans highest strength of schedule, therefore eliminating them from any talk, right?
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Old 12-27-2005   #9
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Also, don't forget, NYJ can actually have up to 139 opponent victories (you forgot that they played Tampa Bay)
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Old 12-27-2005   #10
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I have NYJ with a minimum of 135. If they lose to Buf, add 2 to thier 16th week ending 128. The result of NE vs. Mia adds automatic 2 more. Den vs. SD adds 1. Car @ Atl adds 1. NO @ TB adds 1 more. That's 135.
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Old 12-27-2005   #11
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you're right, didnt put a +1 in mine for NO vs. TB

it's 135-139
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Old 12-27-2005   #12
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No problem. I had Tennessee instead of Jacksonville adding a point to NYJ in my similar post, so thanks for that correction.
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Old 12-28-2005   #13
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I put the numbers on an Excel spread sheet to keep from going insane. I compared our numbers to New Orleans numbers, but haven't looked too closely at the other teams yet.

Houston & New Orleans have 2 common teams on their schedules, so those 2 are a wash. That leaves us with 14 games that'll count towards the SOS. Assuming we win Sunday, the 14 non common teams on our schedule would have to go 5-9, while New Orleans 14 teams would have to go 9-5, just for us to have the same SOS of .5236%.

So, unless we want to leave it to a coin flip &, of course, the 14 teams on our's & their schedules, we have to lose Sunday's game, or kiss the #1 pick good bye.

The Jets are in the same boat with us.

Both the Packers & 49er's are still in it, but they'd have to have a major W/L differential. So, realistically they're out of the running for the top pick, unless the Saints win on Sunday. However, stranger things have happened.
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Old 12-28-2005   #14
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luckily all 3 of the other 3-12 teams play at noon and we dont play til 3. which means by that time we will have a pretty clear cut picture as to what the team needs to do.

New Orleans is playing a 10-5 Tampa Bay and will most likely lose.

Gree Bay is playing a 13-2 Seattle who has locked up homefield advantage and there is a nchance they may rest players and green bay could win this one. If they play their starters more than a quarter the packers will lose.

Jets play 5-10 Buffalo and this is a winable game for them.


Also having New Orleans lose isn't a bad thing because they would most likely choose Linart with the first pick. So if we win, we need Green Bay and Buffalo to win to hold onto reggie Bush (yes i'm a bush supporter) Or whatever player we wanted since we probbaly were not going to draft Linart.
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Old 12-28-2005   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hottoddie
Houston & New Orleans have 2 common teams on their schedules, so those 2 are a wash. That leaves us with 14 games that'll count towards the SOS. .
There are also other games on their respective schedules that you already know the outcome - because two opponents are playing each other this week and it's virtually guaranteed that one will win and the other will lose - making the net effect either +1 or +2 in the 'opponent win' count. Considering those games makes it slightly more accurate to forecast movement of opponent win total/SoS.

btw, New Orleans played Buffalo and the Jets while the Texans only played Buffalo so that one is only a wash if Buffalo wins (Both NO and Hou +1). If the Jets win, NO gains 1 relative to Houston)

Consider the Texans 'opponent win' count: Baltimore @ Cleveland will be +1 'opponent win' regardless of who wins, Cincinnati @ KC (+1 regardless who wins), Tennessee @ Jax (+2) regardless.

The only games this week that can really move the Texans number a TBD amount are StL @ Dal (StL wins +1, Dal wins 0); Az @ Indy (Indy wins +2, Az wins +1); Det @ Pit (Det wins 0, Pit wins +1), Sea @ GB (Sea wins +1, GB wins 0). These games appear very predictable.

There are also other games that have zero effect on the Texans or Saints SoS (Denver/SD, Wash/Philly).

So when you consider all that, the big picture gets a lot smaller....

From where I sit, it's the Saints in the drivers seat for #1 if they lose and the Texans win.
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Old 12-28-2005   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CharloTex
I have NYJ with a minimum of 135. If they lose to Buf, add 2 to thier 16th week ending 128. The result of NE vs. Mia adds automatic 2 more. Den vs. SD adds 1. Car @ Atl adds 1. NO @ TB adds 1 more. That's 135.
Thanks. I corrected for that.
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Old 12-28-2005   #17
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Keep this in mind. If San Diego wins on Saturday, then Pittsburgh automatically secures the #6 seed and Kansas City is eliminated. This means that Detroit might be able to beat a Pittsburgh team that will be resting its starters.
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Old 12-28-2005   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOgre
Keep this in mind. If San Diego wins on Saturday, then Pittsburgh automatically secures the #3 seed and Kansas City is eliminated. This means that Detroit might be able to beat a Pittsburgh team that will be resting its starters.
Pittsburgh will not secure the #3 seed, they can be a wild card at best. Cincinnati won the division and seeds 1-4 are only division winners.
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Old 12-28-2005   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MorKnolle
Pittsburgh will not secure the #3 seed, they can be a wild card at best. Cincinnati won the division and seeds 1-4 are only division winners.
I meant the #6 seed. I seem to be making typos and miscalculations throughout this thread. I apologize.
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Old 12-28-2005   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOgre
I meant the #6 seed. I seem to be making typos and miscalculations throughout this thread. I apologize.
no reason to apologize Ogre your threads are always good, informative and well written- Happy Holidays!
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