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Old 12-26-2005   #1
texansfan1974
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Default We have to lose to be #1

On 610am John Mcclain said if we win we will have #5 pick. So we need to lose this one.
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Old 12-26-2005   #2
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Actually, if we win and tie up with the other 3-win teams, San Fran will get the #5 due to Strength of Schedule. We would end up with the #4 or #3, depending on how Week 17 goes.
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Old 12-26-2005   #3
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I don't believe I have outright hoped the Texans would lose a game. This is no different. However, I will not be dissappointed if the Texans end up getting the #1 overall pick in the draft.
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Old 12-26-2005   #4
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It is an odd mix of emotions. I'll be glad when this season is over. Someone, give this team and coaching staff an enema!
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Old 12-26-2005   #5
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Originally Posted by Texan Asylum
It is an odd mix of emotions. I'll be glad when this season is over. Someone, give this team and coaching staff an enema!
Post of the year!!
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Old 12-26-2005   #6
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So I guess we'll all be cheering on the Jets tonight eh?
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Old 12-26-2005   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texansfan1974
On 610am John Mcclain said if we win we will have #5 pick. So we need to lose this one.
McClain doesn't know that because the numbers change weekly and I know he hasn't run the numbers, and it's not quite as straightforward as you might think it is to calculate. I heard John and Lance talking and I think he was saying the Texans could be as low as #5 because if the Texans won over SF, there is a pretty good possibility of 5 teams being tied at 3-13.

It's really too complex to figure out even with only one week left because every week you have to go back and recalculate the opponent win total based on updated win totals for every team that your team has played for the entire season. And when you play a team twice, you have to account for the updated record twice. I was thinking about running some scenarios but the more I thought about it, the uglier it got.

If the Texans lose, none of this will matter anyway.

Last edited by aj.; 12-26-2005 at 05:15 PM.
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Old 12-26-2005   #8
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Go Jets.
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Old 12-26-2005   #9
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Originally Posted by texansfan1974
Go Jets.
Yesterdays game between the Bucs and Saints almost produced a Saints
victory, which would have been huge for us because most projections tend to have them with the weakest SOS and they may have therefor the best chance of #1 if we win this coming Sunday. As it is now, we will probably pick before SF even if beat them Sunday.
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Old 12-26-2005   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aj.
McClain doesn't know that because the numbers change weekly and I know he hasn't run the numbers, and it's not quite as straightforward as you might think to calculate. I heard him and Lance talking and I think he was saying the Texans could be as low as #5 because if the Texans won over SF, there is a pretty good possibility of 5 teams being tied at 3-13.

It's really too complex to figure out even with only one week left because every week you have to go back and recalculate the opponent win total based on updated win totals for every team that your team has played for the entire season. And when you play a team twice, you have to account for the updated record twice. I was thinking about running some scenarios but the more I thought about it, the uglier it got.

If the Texans lose, none of this will matter anyway.
Ah, until we beat the Rams yesterday, this was a big topic of discussion on the 49er boards as well. The truth of the matter is the it's not that complex, it's time consuming and requires a bit of sensitivity analysis, but not a lot. However, the short of it is that this late in the season, there won't much change as we're 15/16th through the schedule.

Now, if the Texans and all the other 3-12 teams win, save the 49ers obviously, the Texans will probably pick first. Winning against the 49ers will lower (slightly) their SoS. It would most likely firmly entrench the 49ers with the 2nd pick. Without doing a full sensitivity analysis, the only way it wouldn't happen is if all the non-common opponents of the 49ers lost and those of the Texans won, raising YOUR SoS while lowering ours.

Now, there are a lot of other scenarios. And in any of them, if any of the other 3-12 teams lose and the Texans win, you'll not be drafting 1st because your SoS is much higher than the others.
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Old 12-26-2005   #11
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Does anyone have a link to the current SOS standings?
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Old 12-26-2005   #12
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http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference
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Old 12-26-2005   #13
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Originally Posted by Khari
Thanks.

I found another good one that lists the current order by wins/losses.

Sequence for the 2006 NFL Draft from ourlads.com
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Old 12-26-2005   #14
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My crackpot math had us in a virtual tie with the Jets for second in SOS going into week 17 (assuming the Jets lose), so it looks like we would get either the second or third pick depending on how that shakes out. The Saints have us/Jets by three games and the Packers and 49ers are also three and four games behind.

I hate to say this, but we're better off losing this game. I hope no one thinks less of me, but we 2006 will be better with a Texans loss.
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Old 12-26-2005   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DraconisRex
Ah, until we beat the Rams yesterday, this was a big topic of discussion on the 49er boards as well. The truth of the matter is the it's not that complex, it's time consuming and requires a bit of sensitivity analysis, but not a lot. However, the short of it is that this late in the season, there won't much change as we're 15/16th through the schedule.

Now, if the Texans and all the other 3-12 teams win, save the 49ers obviously, the Texans will probably pick first. Winning against the 49ers will lower (slightly) their SoS. It would most likely firmly entrench the 49ers with the 2nd pick. Without doing a full sensitivity analysis, the only way it wouldn't happen is if all the non-common opponents of the 49ers lost and those of the Texans won, raising YOUR SoS while lowering ours.

Now, there are a lot of other scenarios. And in any of them, if any of the other 3-12 teams lose and the Texans win, you'll not be drafting 1st because your SoS is much higher than the others.
Not complex at all, just time consuming.

Let's look at one scenario.

If the Texans beat SF and both finish 3-13 AND assuming the following teams win this weekend:

Giants
Colts
Ravens
Bills
Chiefs
Steelers
Bucs
Seahawks
Jags
Bears
Skins
Cowgirls

Then, SF opponents will have won 141 games and Houston opponents will have won 137, giving Houston the SoS advantage over the 9ers in this scenario.

But - getting into the uncommon opponent factor - if the Bears lose and something really stupid happens like AZ beats Indy and New Orleans beats Tampa or StL beats Dallas - unlikely I know - then the opponent win count would be the same, but since Hou beat SF in this scenario, SF would get tiebreaker advantage since it lost to Hou.

There's a ton of combinations like that when you start factoring in one or more of the other three teams into it (if they finish 3-13).

Some of the games this weekend are a push in the win column for the SF HOU scenario, e.g., Wash-Philly, KC-Cin, TN-Jax, Balt-Cle.

That's why it will be much easier if the 9ers just win outright on Sunday

Last edited by aj.; 12-26-2005 at 06:46 PM.
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Old 12-26-2005   #16
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well anything is possible, in this scenario if the jets beat new england tonight they eliminate themselves from the bowl, the winning % only affect NO, but since they played them both NO stays pat, then the raiders would have to beat the giants on saturday (yea right) the bills beat the jets, pitts burg beats detroit, indy beats arizona, green bay beats seattle, minn beats chicago, NO beats tampa, then if we lost, and then dallas beats the rams, if i did the math right would end up like this.


houston .531

SF .531

then apparently a div or conference tie breaker, not sure how that works, we are 2-4 in our div houston 0-6 in theirs....so longshot would be an understatement. besides i fully expect to beat houston
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Old 12-26-2005   #17
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Div or conf tiebreaker wouldn't apply in a SF HOU tie. It would be head to head and SF would win (get the higher pick) because it lost to HOU. A Hou - SF tie in SoS is possible but unlikely because more than one significant upset would have to occur.
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Old 12-26-2005   #18
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wait....

if we beat SF, is there a way we could get he #1? cause what if the packers, saints and jets win, then the texans and the 9ers would be the only
3-13 teams and with the SOS of the texans, theyd get the first pick...
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Old 12-26-2005   #19
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All I know is I'd never hoped to be so involved with trying to figure out how mathmatically my team is the worst in the league, and therefore entitled to the #1 draft pick.

I know I've said I hope they get it, but that's more a reaction to the desire for something, ANYTHING, positive to come out of this most dismal of seasons. I've been a pro football fan my whole life, and I've never ever been happy to see the season end - until now.
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Old 12-27-2005   #20
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I must say that I think it is in the best interest of the team to lose next week. Four or five weeks ago, I would not have said this. But losing just one game will matter little in the grand scheme of things for next year. With all the changes coming to the team, I just don't think this one game will affect the psyche of the team.

Having said that, once I start watching the game, I CAN NOT root for the Texans to lose. I start pulling for them to win no matter what. I just can't pull for my Texans to lose.
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