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Old 12-24-2005   #1
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Default "Bush Bowl" no longer between just SF and Houston...

If Houston knocks off San Francisco, the following teams will finish with 3 wins (assuming the other really bad teams don't win their games either)...

Houston
San Francisco
NY Jets
Green Bay
New Orleans

If these teams finish with 3 wins each, based on their current strength of schedules (as of Week 14), the draft order would be:

1. Green Bay
2/3. New Orleans/NY Jets (coin flip would decide)
4. Houston
5. San Francisco
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Old 12-24-2005   #2
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go ahead Huge muddle the water-

whatever happens, happens its out of our control. on a positive note we have the Saints 3rd pick for trading down last draft, thats some consolation because its going to be a much higher selection than I'm sure the saints war room envisioned (of course Casserly knew).

FYI- by the way great game by Julius Jones today, just another example that trading down can work to your benifit and I was wrong about Steven Jackson being all that Cowboys are now a much improved team. I still like DeMarcus more than Shawn Merrimen too
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Old 12-24-2005   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huge
If Houston knocks off San Francisco, the following teams will finish with 3 wins (assuming the other really bad teams don't win their games either)...

Houston
San Francisco
NY Jets
Green Bay
New Orleans

If these teams finish with 3 wins each, based on their current strength of schedules (as of Week 14), the draft order would be:

1. Green Bay
2/3. New Orleans/NY Jets (coin flip would decide)
4. Houston
5. San Francisco

That sucks. All this hard work for nothing. :brickwall
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Old 12-24-2005   #4
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Default Assuming the Texans beat the 49ers...

And the rest of the 3-12 teams go to 3-13, what will the draft order be?

Texas 3-13
49ers 3-13
Jets 3-13
GB 3-13
NO 3-13
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Old 12-24-2005   #5
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It will be interesting if we end up with the #4, it's probably a little higher than we need to grab our stud OL but I'm not sure anyone will be willing to spend much to trade up because outside Bush and Leinart (maybe Vince if he comes out) there is not another clear-cut top talent that teams would want to trade up and get.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gtexan02
And the rest of the 3-12 teams go to 3-13, what will the draft order be?
Texas 3-13
49ers 3-13
Jets 3-13
GB 3-13
NO 3-13
See the previous post right before yours:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Huge
If these teams finish with 3 wins each, based on their current strength of schedules (as of Week 14), the draft order would be:

1. Green Bay
2/3. New Orleans/NY Jets (coin flip would decide)
4. Houston
5. San Francisco
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Old 12-24-2005   #6
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From what I'm hearing, Green Bay's SoS moved to .540 after today. That'd drop them down below Houston.

As odd as it sounds, the top overall pick could come down to a coin flip. Not very probable but possible.

Last edited by Huge; 12-25-2005 at 08:20 PM.
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Old 12-25-2005   #7
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From Great Blue North Draft Report...

With week to play #1 pick still in play… Who ultimately ends up with the first overall pick at the 2006 draft, in fact, will go down to the final week of the schedule. The possibility that the #1 pick would be decided in a head-to-head game between Houston and San Francisco, though, was removed when the 49ers stunned the Rams in St. Louis to raise their record to 3-12. That left the Texans as the only remaining team with just two wins. As such, Houston would get the #1 pick this coming April, and the chance to select star Southern California junior RB Reggie Bush, if the Texans lose in San Francisco on New Year’s Day. A win by the Texans, though, would really muddle the race. The 49ers, for example, may have played themselves out of any chance at the #1 pick. While there are still three other teams with three wins – New Orleans, at 3-12, as well as Green Bay and the Jets, both of whom have to play later tonight and Monday respectively – the 49ers have played a somewhat stronger schedule than the Saints, Jets and Texans. Even if the 49ers lose to Houston, they likely will finish the year with a better combined opponents’ W-L record than the Texans. In fact, a win by Houston next Sunday and New Orleans could sneak into the #1 pick. The Saints have played the weakest schedule of any of the 2-3 win teams and have a tough one to finish up with a road date in Tampa Bay next Sunday. And that could be interesting because the Saints may be one team that will actually be more interested in Southern Cal QB Matt Leinart as opposed to his backfield mate Bush. As usual, we’ll have the full, updated “if the draft were held today selection order for the 2006 draft’ after Monday night’s game so stay tuned!

http://www.gbnreport.com/index.htm
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Old 12-25-2005   #8
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As of this moment (Christmas morning):

Saints - 122 opponent victories
Jets - 125 opponent victories
Texans - 127 opponent victories
Packers - 127 opponent victories
49ers - 130 opponent victories

The current numbers don't tell the whole tale, however. Logically, for strength of schedule to matter, the 3-win teams must lose their remaining games. Losing increases your strength of schedule. By contrast, the Texans either win their remaining game or clinch the #1 pick by finishing 2-14.

So:

Saints - must lose to Tampa Bay (+2 to SOS) - total 124
Jets - must lose to Patriots (+2 to SOS) and Buffalo (+2 to SOS) - total 129
Texans - must win vs. 49ers (+0 to SOS) - total 127
Packers - must lose to Chicago (+2 to SOS) and Seattle (+1 to SOS) - total 130
49ers - must lose to Texans (+1 to SOS) - total 131

And that's not all, how about guaranteed SOS affecting games - those games where both sides played a given team?

Saints - Chicago/GreenBay (+1), NE/NYJ (+1), Carolina/Atlanta (+2), Chicago/Minnesota (+1), Buff/NYJ (+1), Miami/NE (+1) - total 131
Jets - Denver/SD (+1), Miami/NE (+2), Carolina/Atlanta (+1), NO/TB (+1) - total 134
Texans - Baltimore/Cleveland (+1), Arizona/Indy (+1), Cincin/KC (+1), Jax/Tenn (+2) - total 132
Packers - Minn/Baltimore (+1), Detroit/Pitt (+1), NO/TB (+1), Balt/Clev (+1), Carolina/Atlanta (+1), Chicago/Minn (+2) - total 137
49ers - Arizona/Indy (+1), Tenn/Jax (+1), Wash/Phil (+1), St.Louis/Dallas (+1) - total 135

Our final results:

Saints - 131
Texans - 132
Jets - 134
49ers - 135
Packers - 137

Thus we see the Saints are the closest to the #1 pick if we beat San Fran. Key Texan/Saints games - Minnesota/Baltimore (We want Minny to win), Detroit/Pittsburgh (We want Detroit), Seattle/Green Bay (We want GB). We need two of these or the best we can get is a coin flip. If we lose all three, we can't even get that.
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Old 12-25-2005   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarg01

Our final results:

Saints - 131
Texans - 132
Jets - 134
49ers - 135
Packers - 137

Thus we see the Saints are the closest to the #1 pick if we beat San Fran. Key Texan/Saints games - Minnesota/Baltimore (We want Minny to win), Detroit/Pittsburgh (We want Detroit), Seattle/Green Bay (We want GB). We need two of these or the best we can get is a coin flip. If we lose all three, we can't even get that.
But that is assuming we beat the Niners. Minnesota will beat Baltimore, so that is one positive for us. Detroit will NOT beat Pittsburgh unfortunatly, so we are still at only positive one. The interesting matchup could wind up being Seattle and Green Bay. Seattle has nothing left to play for this year, they have homefield advantage, and should want to rest most of their starters. GB could actually be able to pull out a win against Seattle. It will be interesting on who Seattle rest and for how long.
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Old 12-25-2005   #10
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http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/3547099.html look at this
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Old 12-25-2005   #11
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This is exactly why you just go out and try to win and let the chips fall. There is no such thing as a good loss.
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Old 12-25-2005   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by El Tejano
This is exactly why you just go out and try to win and let the chips fall. There is no such thing as a good loss.
??? Uh, if we lose NEXT week, there's no doubt (AT ALL)...we GET the 1st pick in the 2006 draft. There's no longer any ifs ands or buts about it.

Those only come into play now if we WIN.

It's time to be realistic, this may be the best time to have the #1 pick for the next 20 years...the Reggie Bush hype machine will have many teams willing to overpay for his services. Why not take advantage of that and set this team up for the next 10 years?
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Old 12-25-2005   #13
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I will have no complains if we do pick Bush or an o-lineman with our first pick. Obviously with the no.1 pick if we don't pick Bush we will move down but that will be a very hard thing to do. I've read and heard about how Reggie doesn't carry the ball often or he played behind a great o-line and things like how bad our o-line is and how much bigger need we have. Look if DD can rush for 1,000 yds behind our current o-line imagine what Bush can do for us. Bush might not carry the ball for 25-27 times (I think he's very capable of that) but he might not need to! He's a legitimate threat to take it all the way every time he touches the ball! Why would he then need to carry it that much? 14 to 15 times is just fine with me if he can be that explosive. And it has been proven that you don't have to always pick o-linesmen high and you can develop the player you draft. So, if we do end up with the no.1 pick and we draft Bush I would be very happy but I also understand the logic of trading down. Happy Holidays everyone!
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Old 12-25-2005   #14
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Imagine that locker room speech by Capers...

Guys, I realize San Francisco is only 3-12 and this may be the last football game some of you ever play. But if you could just go out there and find a way to lose, we'd get the 1st overall pick in the draft as the worst team in the NFL!

So let's go out there and leave everything in the lockeroom. Look in the mirror after this game and know you didn't do a single thing to help our ballclub win today.

Ready? "Bush" on 3...1, 2, 3 "BUSH"!
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Old 12-25-2005   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huge
Imagine that locker room speech by Capers...

But if you could just go out there and find a way to lose...So let's go out there and leave everything in the lockeroom.
If you edit it down to this part, it looks like this would be the halftime speech for every game we've had this year.
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Old 12-26-2005   #16
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a coach can lose it for them, or a GM, or a talent evaluator (lets see what our other recievers defenders and backs can do) or even get a Ragone eval.

Regardless if they made a decision to tank it there is no need to tell the players, it can be done at the front office level and it can all fall on reeves who chances are will be gone at the end of the season.
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Old 12-26-2005   #17
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Has the order with the SOS: If we best the 49ers, we could drop all the way to 4th or 5th. I'm not going through a 3-13 season just to get the 4th pick/5th in the draft in the draft.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/draft/update

It would be intresting to see what the Saints would do with the pick. They have given McAllister a BIG check, rightfully so, but he tore something this year. Do you take Bush and bring back a fan base wherever they go or do you trade Bush and build the team.
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Old 12-26-2005   #18
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I imagine that the Saints might have more interest in Leinhart than Bush given their QB situation. Brooks might be on his way out of town soon.
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Old 12-26-2005   #19
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Quote:
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I imagine that the Saints might have more interest in Leinhart than Bush given their QB situation. Brooks might be on his way out of town soon.
And they already have Duece McAlister
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Old 12-27-2005   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huge
If Houston knocks off San Francisco, the following teams will finish with 3 wins (assuming the other really bad teams don't win their games either)...

Houston
San Francisco
NY Jets
Green Bay
New Orleans

If these teams finish with 3 wins each, based on their current strength of schedules (as of Week 14), the draft order would be:

1. Green Bay
2/3. New Orleans/NY Jets (coin flip would decide)
4. Houston
5. San Francisco
can we sort this out yet?

looks like GB SOS is higher than both the Texans and Saints to me so if the Texans win and all other 3-12 teams lose & our opponents lose out then the Texans might still have the #1 pick, if not it looks more like the Saints will have it

1. Saints

2. Texans

3. Jetts

4. Packers

5. 49er's

1 Houston 2-13 .533 at San Francisco

2 New Orleans 3-12 .517 at Tampa Bay

3 New York Jets 3-12 .533 Buffalo

4 Green Bay 3-12 .542 Seattle

5 San Francisco 3-12 546 Houston
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