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Old 12-24-2005   #1
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Default 1st Pick Tie-Breakers

After this game we are mathematically tied for worst record in the NFL and cannot be better than 3-13. Can someone repost the different scenarios we have with Green Bay, Jets, and NO (all currently at 3-12)? This is just out curiosity and will still cheer on the Texans next week.
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Old 12-24-2005   #2
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Default What are the Terms of the tiebreaker?

is it true that the texans will now get the first overall pick in the draft because of strength of schedule, or is it that the loser of next weeks Toliet Bowl gets it?
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Old 12-24-2005   #3
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GB hosts Chicago, Seattle
NO plays @ Tampa
NY hosts NE & Buffalo

Schedule Strength as of Dec 23rd:
GB .510
NO .531
HOU .546
NY .531
SF .587

I am not claiming to be an expert, but I think SF has now been elimated from the first pick (see .587). It's Houston's pick, if they lose. If Houston wins, it opens the door for GB, NO & NY.

From what I understand, the lower the S of S, the worse teams that you have played.

NY & GB will play tomorrow & Monday.

Last edited by pearland; 12-24-2005 at 04:21 PM.
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Old 12-24-2005   #4
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so is it true that if it was tied after today that the niners would get the first pick.
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Old 12-24-2005   #5
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all this mess can chage any week. the only sure way to know is to let the season run its course and have someone else tell you.
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Old 12-24-2005   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by disturbedtexansfan513
so is it true that if it was tied after today that the niners would get the first pick.
No, we get first pick. Team with the lower SOS gets the higher pick.

We need the Seahawks to win because that would help us in the SOS.
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Old 12-24-2005   #7
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At this moment (Sat. 4:15 PM CST), Houston is the only team with only 2 wins. SF has 3 wins. NYJ, NO, GB also each have 3 wins but have yet to play/finish their games for this week. If the draft were held this minute, Houston would have the first pick. Even if SF had lost, their opponents have one more win (at this moment) and Houston would have the first pick still. There are obviously signigficant games awaiting result today, tomorrow and Monday. But at this moment, Houston's opponents have won one more game than NYJ's and GB's, and 4 more games than NO's. So if we were to win next week's game against SF with this same opponent's winning percentage, we would pick 4th. If we lose next week, we pick first, period. I will try to update tomorrow.

Last edited by CharloTex; 12-24-2005 at 04:28 PM.
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Old 12-24-2005   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CharloTex
At this moment (Sat. 4:15 PM CST), Houston is the only team with only 2 wins. SF has 3 wins. NYJ, NO, GB also each have 3 wins but have yet to play/finish their games for this week. If the draft were held this minute, Houston would have the first pick. Even if SF had lost, their opponents have one more win (at this moment) and Houston would have the first pick still. There are obviously signigficant games awaiting result today, tomorrow and Monday. But at this moment, Houston's opponents have won one more game than NYJ's and GB's, and 4 more games than NO's. So if we were to win next week's game against SF with this same opponent's winning percentage, we would pick 4th. If we lose next week, we pick first, period. I will try to update tomorrow.
who should i be pulling for to win then?
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Old 12-24-2005   #9
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Here's Sarg to bring you all the #1 pick tiebreakers as of the end of the Saturday noon games - sorta like a nerdy Santa Claus!

Teams still in the hunt for #1:

Texans - clinch #1 with a Week 17 loss. If they win Week 17, strength of schedule will break the tie between the 3-13 teams. Remaining game: 49ers. They have a guaranteed +1 to SOS in Seattle/Indy.

Saints - Currently the #2 over all pick with 122 opponent victories. Remaining game: Bucs. To stay 3-13 they add +2 to SOS and have a 1 game lead on the Texans. They have a guaranteed +1 SOS in the NE/NYJ game and +1 in the Bears/Packers.

Jets - Currently the #3 with 124 opponent victories (they play in Monday Night Football this week) Remaining games: Patriots, Bills. To stay 3-13, they have to lose two division games, so add +4 to their SOS and the Texans have a 3 game lead. Guaranteed +1 SOS in Oakland/Broncos.

49ers - After a surprise win, they are #4 with 126 opponent victories. Remaining game: TEXANS. To stay 3-13 they have to lose to the Texans, add +1 to SOS, and Texans have 2 game lead. Guaranteed +1 in SOS from Seattle/Indy and +1 from Philly/Zona.

Packers - Rounding out the cellar with pick #5 and 126 opponent victories (they play tomorrow) Remaining games: Bears, Seahawks. To stay 3-13 they need to add +3 to their SOS, and Texans have a 4 game lead.


Watch the afternoon games. We want Seattle and Philly to win. Tomorrow we like the Packers. Jets win on Monday would be nice, but don't hold your breath.
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Old 12-24-2005   #10
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Me and my brother were looking over your post for any mistakes and it looks perfect to us. Great research. Thanks for saving us the time.
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Old 12-24-2005   #11
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We're in decent shape SOS-wise, but we've got no breathing room.

Including the "forced" games (where a team has to lose to stay in contention for #1) and Week 16 guaranteed SOS impact games for each team (lowest score breaks tie for best pick):

Texans - 126
Saints - 126
Jets - 129
49ers - 129
Packers - 129

Obviously, the Saints are the most likely to sneak up on us for #1.

I was so ready to cheer when that Saints 12/Lions 10 with 15 secs left came across the ticker. Oh well.
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Old 12-24-2005   #12
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I don't think it matters. The 49ers are going to club us like baby seals next week. The Texans have never won the last game of the season and this year will be no different.

On the road against a SF team that just won and knowing that they've got four quarters to play for this coaching staff ever I think that the majority of the team mails it in next week (which is why many of them will not be here in 2006). Last year when they had a first time ever .500 record to play for they came out flat. Every year since the franchise took the field they've finished with a whimper.

Want Reggie Bush or just want his trade value it makes no difference. That's what we're going to get.
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