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Old 12-14-2005   #1
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Default A few thoughts.

Im gonna talk about some topics which are already getting very old.. specifically.. Carr, the Oline, and Bush. But I hope to give a different perspective..or at least one that isnt voiced quite so much.



Just how important is it that we get an OT in the 1st round? Ive been supporting that move vehemently for a while now, but after thinking about it.. well.. im not so sure.

Here is the deal. Pitts isnt too bad at LT. He isnt pro bowl caliber.. yet.. but he does the job. When you have a talent like Reggie Bush available, it may not be a good idea to pass on him to get a player which you need, but could probably do without.. if that makes any sense.

The thing is, with Hodgdon at center, McKinney at LG, and Pitts at LT.. the line looked pretty dang good. Of course we didnt get a lot of playtime to make sure, but things did look promising. McKinney is obviously a much better LG than center, and Hodgdon, while not a great run blocker, wasnt a swinging door either.

So if we were to assume that with better coaching (which we SHOULD have..dang it) that these guys may be able to maintain that kind of performance all year.. you could safely say that the left side of our line is "satisfactory".

But that leaves the right side. Wade is expensive.. but isnt quite playing as well as we are paying him. Honestly though.. I dont care what we are paying him, if he isnt doing the job..bench him.. he will make good depth until we can cut him without killing the cap. This is a deep draft for OTs..and there is a good chance that a quality tackle will be available at the #33 pick. Good enough to be groomed as our permenant RT anyway. Then there is also Seth Wand.. he still hasnt been tried at RT and he wasnt TERRIBLE at LT.. he could make a very good RT for us.

SO with that many options..you could assume that we are doing ok at RT, or at least we will be able to fill the void, even if we draft Bush. That leaves RG.. here is what I think.. STEVE HUTCHINSON. RG for the Seattle Seahawks.. he is a free agent this year. If we cant afford him (entirely possible considering how much we have to pay Olinement to come here).. I think that Wade, Wand, Wiegert, or our 2nd round tackle.. one of them may be able to do the job.


My point is that going hogwild drafting Olinemen may not be NECESSARY. I think it would be good for us.. grab as many as we can and fix this line as fast as possible.. but with Bush on the table, I dunno if we can pass on him.

Here is the thing with Bush. I LOVE DD.. hes my boy. I like his attitude..I like the way he runs the ball for us.. I like that he is loyal to this franchise. I dont want to see DD leave.. and luckily for us, we just signed him for 3 more years. Now.. if there is one weakness in DD (and I honestly think there is only one) it is that he isnt durable. At least, he isnt durable enough to take 30 carries a game for 16 games. Bush, interestingly enough, doesnt take alot of carries at USC either.. averaging around 20 I beleive. So it seems to me that having both Bush and DD on this team may provide a very good 1-2 punch of DDs power and cutback ability, complimented by Bush's speed and elusiveness. Now.. 40 mil is quite a price to pay for a back that is gonna split carries... but then.. you never know what the future may hold. Bush could be a bust.. or he could be better than LT. If he is better than LT, woot, we have quite the backfield. If he is a bust.. well.. cant blame us for trying.. at least we still have DD. Either way you cut it.. DD isnt gonna be able to run the ball for us consistently with his injury issues.. and Bush is an elite prospect that we need to seriously consider.


I said I was gonna talk about Carr too.. and I just had a little bit to say. Specifically.. he is slow thinking out there.. he zones in on his target, making things alot harder on him and his oline. his instincts arent the best, making it alot more harder on his Oline.

Basicly..I think our Oline is ragtag.. but I dont think its as bad as people say. I think Carr makes them look worse. Despite that though.. I still think Carr can be our guy. What he needs is someone who will come in here and recognize these weaknesses.. and help FIX THEM. Our current coaching staff hasnt seemed too interested in fixing Carr... they just keep pumping money into average free agent Olinemen. I think a new coaching staff will go a long way towards helping Carr's development.. assuming we get a more competent staff.



one last thing. Wade Phillips and Al Saunders.. there is our HC and OC. Let Phillips bring in whoever he wants as DC. Him and his guy will be in charge of Defense.. leave Al in charge of the Offense. THen all we need is a good GM.


thats it. Sorry this isnt over anything new and interesting
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Old 12-14-2005   #2
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hodgon run blocks pretty well...
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Old 12-14-2005   #3
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I had posted similar thinking in the o-line area - here was my reasoning.

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Originally Posted by Runner
From LT to RT

Pitts - McKinney - Hodgdon - Weigert - Wand

Reasoning: This team has a lot of holes to fill, and this would be the best line we have had since the we've been a team. It would probably be average (adequate pass blocking, very good running blocking) in the league. Average isn't saying a lot, but given the numerous holes to fill that would have to be good enough. McKinney is a much better guard then center, Weigert is a better guard than tackle. Therefore these guards could help Hodgdon grow at center (although I'd still use a mid-to-late draft pick/FA acquisition on another center), and the guards could also work with the tackles given the schemes for specific games. Wand would be a better RT than Wade, leaving Wade as an extremely expensive backup. Brown is a decent backup guard. These players should have far better coaching next year which will also be a huge help.

This frees up the use of our first round pick to use on the best player available or to trade for multiple picks and a proven defensive player (picks to include a 2-4 round tight end). Our defense will probably require more fresh blood to fix than our offense, so we can't ignore the defense when contemplating this next draft.
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Old 12-14-2005   #4
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Good post, Grid.

Regarding the o-line, I'm up in the air on the draft, as well. Many scouting reports indicate that there is no top 5 pick in the draft this year. And besides, like someone pointed out in another thread, the NFL Champions Patriots don't have a first round pick on their entire o-line. Although the line should be one of our primary concerns, I'm not sure if spending the first (or second) pick of the draft would be prudent.

DD is a good back, but like you mentioned, he's injury prone. We need someone to platoon with him, but not necessarily Bush. I like what I see in Reggie, and he is the flavor of the month right now, but that being said, the no. 1 pick will be that much more valuable. We could probably make some great deals with the top pick if we don't plan on getting Bush.

I think Carr is an average NFL QB. Not bad, but he's shown the same tendencies that he had coming into the league. Now I've always been one to point out that he's been shellshocked, but I still think he's got potential. He's not going to be a John Elway, making plays when things break down, but I think he's more servicable than a Trent Dilfer (who was adequate enough to win a Superbowl with an outstanding defense).
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Old 12-14-2005   #5
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I'm pretty much along the same line of thinking. However, I would say let's drop McKinney and see what we can get in FA. Also, there will be some GREAT quality, especially guards, in the 2nd round. Using a 2 and a 3 on linemen would be nice. At some point, I'd like to find a 'basketball-playing, athletic TE' who can block and who CAN CATCH!!!

If we could add a Hutchinson and maybe another FA guard, we'll be in much better shape. I still want to watch Milford play - he's still young, ya know?


***REMEMBER***

We're not picking at like 60 with our second round pick, we're at 33. We pretty much have the last pick in the first round (That's my optimistic view). If any of those mauler type OT fall - BOOM - draft them - Giles, McNeil, etc... Every year someone slips because of need. Hopefully, this OT deep draft will allow some OT to drop the 33rd pick of the draft.

PITTS - MILFORD/(FA) - HODGDON - HUTCHINSON - MCNEIL?


Also, if you want Giles as well. Wouldn't an extra 3rd allow us to move up into one of Denver's spots?
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Old 12-14-2005   #6
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Grid .... for once we agree
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Old 12-15-2005   #7
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I really don't think you can say much positive about an O-line that has allowed this many sacks and doesn't give Carr enough time to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield. Everybody recognizes this. To turn around and try to blame Carr for the bad offensive line's performance is really revisionist. Seems to me you are trying to find some way to justify the play of the line to bring in Bush. Even if you succeed, then you still have the problem of poor pass and rushing defense, as well as a failure to rush the passer. Too many people see the NFL from a fantasy football perspective and only see the skill positions as important. Thus, everybody goes ga-ga over Bush when there are gaping holes all over the place elsewhere. To throw a top draft pick away for someone who plays a position you are already strong at when you could help plug up several different holes by trading away that pick would be pretty silly to me and would send the message that the team really doesn't have the slightest idea of what it is doing.
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Old 12-15-2005   #8
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Grid I am glad that some people are starting to realize that we can draft a quality lineman with the 33rd pick. I know there are all of these posts claiming that x number of the top linemen in the league are drafted in the first round, but what is the difference between 32 and 33? I could see that being a valid argument if we were picking in the 50's, but we will have the first pick in the second round.

I just feel that we will regret not picking Reggie if we have the chance. Why is it that he dominates the competition and he is doubted, yet lesser talents do worse and they are heralded? I think that some people are just looking for ways to discredit him for some reason.
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Old 12-15-2005   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo
I really don't think you can say much positive about an O-line that has allowed this many sacks and doesn't give Carr enough time to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield. Everybody recognizes this. To turn around and try to blame Carr for the bad offensive line's performance is really revisionist. Seems to me you are trying to find some way to justify the play of the line to bring in Bush. Even if you succeed, then you still have the problem of poor pass and rushing defense, as well as a failure to rush the passer. Too many people see the NFL from a fantasy football perspective and only see the skill positions as important. Thus, everybody goes ga-ga over Bush when there are gaping holes all over the place elsewhere. To throw a top draft pick away for someone who plays a position you are already strong at when you could help plug up several different holes by trading away that pick would be pretty silly to me and would send the message that the team really doesn't have the slightest idea of what it is doing.
I agree with most of your post and your position, but I really wouldn't call drafting Bush a throw away.
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Old 12-15-2005   #10
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On the O-line - They have been underperforming for 4 years in a row - patchwork bandaid FA's being singed to come in and fill the gaps and like BoBo mentioend you seem to be trying to make Carr out to be the problem for them. I certainly would disagree and say the line most often is overmatched and thats the problem I see. We lack even an average O-line which is all Carr has needed to produce some pretty good performances behind. I'm not saying we need to draft all O-line guys, but I certainly think it needs to be addressed in mroe than one way [draft and FA's]. I dont see us having to draft a First round O-line guy though unless we trade down - There's no Franchise OT types in this draft that I have seen.Bottom line IMO The pass protection is so bad no QB in the league would survive very long and the reason the run blocking looks good is they dont have to block but for the first 3 seconds and then release because DD is past the line by then. This screams out as a must to address and is honestly one of the reason I stated before the season started that the team would suffer and people would be fired this year back in TC for failing to address the biggest problem area even after the Owner came down and told the staff directly to fix it.

On Carr - Honestly the guy has put up good numbers when the protection and playcalling has been consistent. Looking back at just his stats he put up pretty darn respectable numbers and was growing until this year. But since our coaching staff have not seen fit to give him much to work with [New coach,new system, bad O-line, Only allowing limited playcalls ie:3 step drops & the occasional rolllout] He has very little chance/options to succeed. He's been locked for 4 years into a suffocating run offense by a coach that produced the worst O-line in the NFL yet - somehow promoted the line coach to OC??? Sure Carr's made some mistakes too and locks on to a receiver at times - IMO that mostly due to his coach is telling him to get rid of the ball in 3-5 seconds - Thats hardly enough time to get past 10 yards and open up the field much less time for a play action play as he will be sacked more than 80% of the time because we cant protect him - plain and simple. As evidenced in the games where pass-blocking has held up - Carr did as expected and looked pretty good overall. IMO he's been forced to play in a system he's never been suited for. He's a Passing QB - a grip it and Rip it type and with the right OC he will look liek a Pro-Bowler [Mark my words] I would agree he has played average at times, but I think thats more mental than anything else after being pummeled for 4 years in a row now and looking to tie or even beat his first year sack record this year. I very much disagree that hes been to blame for even half of those sacks - thats almost completely on the O-lines lack of Pass protection and the coaching of the line.

Just to compare numbers - Lets look at the #1 QB in the league Peyton Manning's numbers to compare with i nthe last 2 years.

P Manning
04-05 Comp=336 Att=497 Pass Pct = 67.6 Sack totals = 13
05-06 Comp=269 Att=394 Pass Pct = 68.3 Sack totals = 12

D Carr
04-05 Comp=285 Att=466 Pass Pct = 61.2 Sack totals = 49
05-06 Comp=211 Att=350 Pass Pct = 60.3 Sack totals = 61

On Bush - A great talent for sure - I'm waiting to see how he performs against Texas before I say too much on him as I want to see how he responds if he gets planted a few times in the big game and if he chokes up or turns it on. IF he can pull off a Heisman performance against UT in the rose bowl I would be more inclined to drafting him. IMO hes a change of pace back and we have 2 of those on the roster allready and neither has worked out [Hollings and Morency]. DD does have durability probs, but hes a servicable RB and has produced consistently at the NFL level which is what we need. I think Wells is a good compliment to him as achange of pace guy. IF we were to draft Bush I think we might miss out on filling all the other holes on this team we cant afford to overlook esp on the defensive side. At this point i'm alot more for trading down and getting extra picks than drafting Bush as he will fill 1 long term need [playmakers] at the expense of possibly missing out on several other immediate needs [O-line, #2 WR, LB's, #2 Corner, Safety] Bush would make our offense a little easier, but IMO teams would adjust what they do to us now and stack 8 in the box and shut him down too. Honestly I think this would still leave us with many holes unless we landed some great talent in later rounds to fill holes with or started shelling out bucks for a bunch of good FA talent to fill our Offensive and defensive gaps.
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Old 12-15-2005   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HJam72
I agree with most of your post and your position, but I really wouldn't call drafting Bush a throw away.
If you spend the top draft pick on a position in which you are already strong when you have a myriad of other needs, then it is indeed a throwaway.
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Old 12-15-2005   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo
If you spend the top draft pick on a position in which you are already strong when you have a myriad of other needs, then it is indeed a throwaway.
Drafting a player who becomes one of the top 5 players in the entire NFL would not be a throwaway. We will have to wait and see how it turns out.

Someone else stated this earlier, but we drafted Travis Johnson based on need. Who on this board is happy with that pick? :brickwall
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Old 12-15-2005   #13
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Good post Grid and my next comment is not directed to anyone, but to paraphrase George Stephanopolous famous quote - it's the offensive line stupid.
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Old 12-15-2005   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zephyr
Someone else stated this earlier, but we drafted Travis Johnson based on need. Who on this board is happy with that pick? :brickwall
Well I would have to put it in perspective. Am I happy with the pick as I am with AJ and DRob? No. I am happier with the TJ pick than with Carr and Babin though. It is still to early to say how TJ and for that matter Babin will turn out. Carr will be entering his fifth year next year and has been a, well words just can't sum up at how I feel for this player and the lack of impact he has been on the field.
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Old 12-15-2005   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo
I really don't think you can say much positive about an O-line that has allowed this many sacks and doesn't give Carr enough time to throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield. Everybody recognizes this. To turn around and try to blame Carr for the bad offensive line's performance is really revisionist.
Overstated possibly, but not revisionist. The majority of fans seem to want to say the sack problem is an either the OL or Carr problem. News flash--it can be both. Carr does contribute to the sack total, sometimes in meaningless ways like running and getting hit at the line of scrimmage so it goes down as a sack for zero yds and sometimes in meaningful ways. There is plenty of blame to go around on this issue.

For a little perspective--the Texans have given up 61 sacks so far. Put a full one third or 21 on Carr--an amount IMO which even Carr haters can't credibly say is too low--that leaves 40 for the OL. 21 would put Carr alone as responsible for more sacks than 6 teams and just 7 better than league average--obviously too many. 40 on the other hand would still leave the OL in 30th place for sacks. The OL is monumentally bad AND Carr is making them look even worse.
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Old 12-15-2005   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaiser Toro
Well I would have to put it in perspective. Am I happy with the pick as I am with AJ and DRob? No. I am happier with the TJ pick than with Carr and Babin though. It is still to early to say how TJ and for that matter Babin will turn out. Carr will be entering his fifth year next year and has been a, well words just can't sum up at how I feel for this player and the lack of impact he has been on the field.
Carr, Babin and TJ were all need picks. We were too quick to want a "face of the franchise" and could have picked up the best defender for a team that wanted a defensive identity. Babin and TJ were also need picks but from what I understand they had TJ at the top of the DL board. We have so little dominating talent on this team that we really should have never picked for need in the first round....at least the first few years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Infantrycak
For a little perspective--the Texans have given up 61 sacks so far. Put a full one third or 21 on Carr--an amount IMO which even Carr haters can't credibly say is too low--that leaves 40 for the OL. 21 would put Carr alone as responsible for more sacks than 6 teams and just 7 better than league average--obviously too many. 40 on the other hand would still leave the OL in 30th place for sacks. The OL is monumentally bad AND Carr is making them look even worse.
good post
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Old 12-15-2005   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by caddy
sound's good.. until you mocked Carr haters... no way has Carr made our offence look bad. You missed the mark by a mile there.
Carr makes this offense look awful at times. No getting around that one if you are honest.
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Old 12-15-2005   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tulexan
Grid I am glad that some people are starting to realize that we can draft a quality lineman with the 33rd pick. I know there are all of these posts claiming that x number of the top linemen in the league are drafted in the first round, but what is the difference between 32 and 33?
I answered this before; I'll do so again. Next to no difference between 32 and 33. However, the point you continue to ignore is that it's not the first round that they're taken, but the top 20 picks. Difference between 20 and 33? Much bigger.

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Old 12-15-2005   #19
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So ya move your 2nd for their top 15 and throw in the extra 3rd. Then we can get our SURE FIRE OL instead of waiting 10 picks or so and getting the GAMBLE OL. (sarcasm)

Whitworth, Trueblood, and McNeil will be as alsmost as good as any OT in this draft. Personally, I'd rather go with some road grading Guards myself - and we can add Gilles and Joseph as well. Don't waste the 3rd rounder, just get McNeil or Gilles/ Joseph at 33 - done.

I REALLY want a Tight End. So, if Vernon "I bench 460 and can jump 40" Davis or Leonard Pope is around...hmm.


WISHLIST:
Max JG
Vernon Davis
McNeil
Trueblood
...in the second and third round, of course.
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Old 12-15-2005   #20
eriadoc
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Originally Posted by DRAMA
So ya move your 2nd for their top 15 and throw in the extra 3rd. Then we can get our SURE FIRE OL instead of waiting 10 picks or so and getting the GAMBLE OL. (sarcasm)

Whitworth, Trueblood, and McNeil will be as alsmost as good as any OT in this draft. Personally, I'd rather go with some road grading Guards myself - and we can add Gilles and Joseph as well. Don't waste the 3rd rounder, just get McNeil or Gilles/ Joseph at 33 - done.

I REALLY want a Tight End. So, if Vernon "I bench 460 and can jump 40" Davis or Leonard Pope is around...hmm.


WISHLIST:
Max JG
Vernon Davis
McNeil
Trueblood
...in the second and third round, of course.
That may be true. If it is, don't you think the scouts will grade them out as first round material? Whether they go in the first round or not is a different discussion, of course, but if this is the "Year of the Offensive Tackle" just as last year was the year of the running back, then shouldn't we expect to see 4 or 5 offensive linemen go in the first round?
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