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Old 11-28-2005   #1
gg no re
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Post Analysis of First Round Draft History Between RB and OT

This is a look at the first round drafts from 1996 to 2003 concerning drafted OTs and drafted RBs.

Why did I choose this sample size? I consider 03 to be a good stopping point in terms of fair evaluations, and 96 seems to be a good starter.

Feel free to critique whether my hit/miss is accurate. Some people I label as hits, could be considered a mediocre player fortunate enough to never be challenged [Harris, Petitgout].

Some people labeled as whiffs, could be considered hits, but I'm at odds [mainly, Turley and Thomas Jones].

In that sense, the numbers I put out for overall first round picks is subject to chance, and I'll probably go with your word if you say, "Player X definitely is a Hit/Player Z definitely is a Whiff."

When it comes to my hit/miss ratios for Top 10 picks, that's a different story. I'm pretty certain that I got them right. [Unless people argue that Turley is a hit]

Is this an addenum to the Bush/OT debate? You bet your horses it is.

Does history repeat itself? Lightning never strikes twice? You make the call.


1996
OT
Jonathan Ogden - Hit
Willie Anderson - Hit
John Michels - Whiff
Jamain Stephens - Whiff
Andre Johnson - Whiff

RB
Lawrence Phillips - Whiff
Tim Biakabatuka - Whiff
Eddie George - Hit


1997
OT
Orlando Pace - Hit
Walter Jones - Hit
Tarik Glenn - Hit
Ross Verba - Hold

RB
Warrick Dunn - Hit
Antowain Smith - Whiff


1998
OT
Kyle Turley - Whiff
Tra Thomas - Hit
Victor Riley - Whiff

RB
Curtis Enis - Whiff
Fred Taylor - Hit
Robert Edwards - Whiff
John Avery - Whiff


1999
OT
John Tait - Hit
Luke Petitgout - Hit
L.J. Shelton - Hit
Aaron Gibson - Whiff

RB
Edgerrin James - Hit
Ricky Williams - Puff


2000
OT
Chris Samuels - Hit
Stockar McDougle - Whiff
Chris McIntosh - Whiff

RB
Jamal Lewis - Hit
Thomas Jones - Whiff
Ron Dayne - Whiff
Shaun Alexander - Hit
Trung Candidate - Whiff


2001
OT
Leonard Davis - Hit
Kenyatta Walker - Whiff
Jeff Backus - Hit

RB
LaDanian Tomlinson - Hit
Deuce McAlister - Hit
Michael Bennett - Whiff


2002
OT
Mike Williams - Whiff
Bryant McKinnie - Hit
Levi Jones - Hit
Marc Colombo - Whiff
Kendall Simmons - Hit

RB
William Green - Whiff
T.J. Duckett - Hit


2003
OT
Jordan Gross - Hit
George Foster - Hit
Kwame Harris - Hit

RB
Willis McGahee - Hit
Larry Johnson - Hit



TOTAL:
OT
Top Ten - 8/10 = 80%
Overall - 18/30 = 60%


RB
Top Ten - 3/6 = 50%
Overall - 11/23 = 44%



Conclusion: History shows that drafting OTs yields a higher probability of draft success over drafting RBs. When it comes to Top Ten drafting, success in OT drafting is significantly higher than RB drafting.

What does this mean?

1) Drafting Ferguson/Winston is the safe choice, FREENEY WHO?

2) History means nothing! Draft Bush, MOVE OVER COLTS.

Last edited by gg no re; 11-29-2005 at 02:38 PM.
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Old 11-28-2005   #2
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I'm not sure how Thomas Jones and Ron Dayne are whiffs and TJ Duckett is a hit, but otherwise I agree with your deductions.
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Old 11-28-2005   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gg no re
RB
Ricky Williams - Puff
noice! thats a clasic.
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Old 11-28-2005   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gg no re
Conclusion: History shows that drafting OTs yields a higher probability of draft success over drafting RBs. When it comes to Top Ten drafting, success in OT drafting is significantly higher than RB drafting.

What does this mean?

1) Drafting Ferguson/Winston is the safe choice, FREENEY WHO?

2) History means nothing! Draft Bush, MOVE OVER COLTS.

this last part confused me, would you please explain? maybe its me, but freeney never played OL or RB, and is now part of the conclusion. You also say OL is the safe choice in number one, but say draft bush in number two.
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Old 11-28-2005   #5
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very nice work put in by the way, much appreciated.

score one for the good guys...(pro OL)
menos puntos for the bad guys...(pro bush)


excellent!
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Old 11-28-2005   #6
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Why the hell is Mike Williams a whiff and othe OTs whiffs that played well in this league for a good period of time. This is a good observation, and yes it is more likely that you get a good OL than a RB since OL put up larger bodies of work and are a bit easier to evaluate.
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Old 11-28-2005   #7
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Some of the guys in the "whiff" category had their careers cut short due to injuries.

Kyle Turley - Pretty good RT before his back flared up.
Robert Edwards - Had a very solid rookie season. Knee blown up in that Pro Bowl beach football game.
Chris McIntosh - Neck injury forced him out of football.
Marc Colombo - Has battled with a knee injury most of his career.
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Old 11-28-2005   #8
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i would like to take a moment to point out how bad kenyatta walker is and how much the people of tampa hate him. That is all.
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Old 11-29-2005   #9
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After reading your artical it does seem that linemen do pan out better than running backs. But in this years draft the two best tackles have had problems. Winston had the horrible knee injury and we all know this teams history with tackles with injuries. While Ferguson can't seem to keep weight on, but most o linemen have the opposite problem(see Aaron Gibson).
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Old 11-29-2005   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cadahnic
Why the hell is Mike Williams a whiff and othe OTs whiffs that played well in this league for a good period of time. This is a good observation, and yes it is more likely that you get a good OL than a RB since OL put up larger bodies of work and are a bit easier to evaluate.

Mike williams was benched for a free agent that got pick up of the streets and i believe the number was 30 sacks or more accredited to williams for his career. but they played him at guard this week.
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Old 11-29-2005   #11
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Thank you all for your input.

MorKnolle: I understand your questioning, so here is what I had in mind when I labeled them:

Thomas Jones - Didn't stay in Arizona, Bears wanted to go with Cedric Benson over him originally. Since he is performing pretty well right now, it's been really hard to put him on hit/whiff.

Ron Dayne - Didn't pan out for New York. Since he is playing for the Broncos right now, it wouldn't be fair to put him as a hit at the moment.

T.J. Duckett - I put him as a hit, because I haven't heard of any ill will towards him. I also give him a little credit, since his carries are taken away by the presence of Vick and Dunn.

If T.J. and Thomas switch, it wouldn't affect the overall hit/miss for now, so I'll leave it be until another suggestion comes by.


YoungTexanFan: Clarification on the last part; implying that by going with OT over RB, we probably don't have to worry about Freeney taking Carr from behind. By going RB over OT, we ignore recent trends and cross our fingers for our oline, but we could put out a more threatening offense than the Colts.
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Old 11-29-2005   #12
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Ross Verba should not be considered a hit.

A hold is more appropriate.
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